Chris Harris's Column -- Burst Bubble;Massive Dump;Bargains

[Cheib]

Caddyshack said:

isaldiri said:

If Harris had such a good crystal ball he wouldn't have sold his 4.0 rs, rhd to boot when he did.
i

He is not predicting though, is he? He is saying what has already happened.

The market dramatically slowed last winter in terms of sales but the trade did a pretty good job of not letting it impact prices too much. We can all see that the market has slowed but there are obviously exceptions.

We’re probably not going to see a “bust” until there are forced sellers though which probably comes about through a dealer going bust or wider economic climate taking a serious turn for the worst any dealers that’s well run has had such a good few years that they should be able to insulate themselves for a couple of years at least! Market seemed particularly quiet in Q4 but has picked up again in the last six weeks or so.

I know the £150k to £250k segment seems to have grown inexorably with new cars seemingly finding a wall of buyers but at some stage that must come to halt ? Ferrari are the last brand that need to be concerned but the aggressive volume expansion of the likes of McLaren and Aston is harder to see not causing problems ? 600 LT’s are below list already aren’t they ? New DBS’s have been at specialist dealers at discounts to list prices....never bought an Aston so don’t know how the dealers work but I assume someone isn’t taking a £30k plus hit on a brand new model without driving it.

[Bo_apex]

Cheib said:

I know the £150k to £250k segment seems to have grown inexorably with new cars seemingly finding a wall of buyers but at some stage that must come to halt ? Ferrari are the last brand that need to be concerned but the aggressive volume expansion of the likes of McLaren and Aston is harder to see not causing problems ? 600 LT’s are below list already aren’t they ?

+1

Even if I had money to burn I would not want McLaren to burn it that rapidly on my behalf

[IMI A]

Other than 720s and 650s on the floor I still do not see any bargains. 2018 911 turbo s for example still selling for close to list! Even 2016 turbo s cheapest car I've seen is £118k and thats because its yellow. Its been for sale at RPM circa 12 months. Wouldn't want to be in the car game but having said that 911 Virgin always seem to be continually selling and renewing their stock. They just put an 8000 mile 997 turbo cab up for 63k. Most other dealers would want 75-85k for that car but they've priced that car spot on which they'e done all the way through boom and bust. It will be interesting to see if what Harris says flows through to GT3, Speciale etc because they're all still selling for overs.

[IMI A]

What was list on a GT2 RS for example? Can't see them dropping ever so not sure what Harris wittering on about. I can see 488 are dropping like stones but thats normal with F8 around the corner.

[garystoybox]

IMI A said:

What was list on a GT2 RS for example? Can't see them dropping ever so not sure what Harris wittering on about. I can see 488 are dropping like stones but thats normal with F8 around the corner.

Having studied Ferrari prices closely and bought a 488 late last year, the cheapest 488 on the market is only c£10k less than it was 12 months ago with stock of nicely specced cars selling relatively well. 458’s have, if anything, strengthened over the last 12 months and good cars are selling within days.
I think the problem lies in the excessive escalation of old Porsche’s. One of my clients has collected a few of these over the last 6-7 years and I’m amazed at how much people paid a couple of years ago for ‘tatty heeps’ I.e. a £20k crappy condition car suddenly became a £70k vehicle.... madness.
I think the market still seems strong for the newer stuff from the established brands; borrowed money will continue to be very cheap for next 3-4 years (at least) why will things change? I agree not price escalation but I can’t see new Ferrari & Porsche GT products plunging into the abyss.

[anonymous-user]

carspath said:

So selected quotes :


''The bubble actually burst more than a year ago , but the fallout is just becoming visible .

Not really telling us anything we didn't already know, bearing in mind we've had this so called bubble burst, just coming out of Winter and the uncertainty with Brexit prices of classic cars have hardly plummeted although the market seems stagnant in some areas with fewer people turning up for auctions, cars for sale for a long time etc
I don't think it will be anything like 1989 but the days of huge increase in values might be over for the time being but not plummeting imho.

[hunter 66]

Another interesting aspect is EV ....in ten years , possibly ICE will be banned in cities .....so only the most collectable ICE will be of value to the rich as toys and track day fun . Everyone else will be driving EV's that accelerate to 60 in 2 secs but are limited to 90 mph and have 500 mile range .

[ghost83]

When he says market slowing I don’t think of all the modern crop of cars over the last 5yrs which might be why your 488 and special cars are holding value

I think older cars like gallardos 360s 430s 355s which have all gone through the roof in recent years are the ones we’re going to see falling back to where they were, a few years ago a 355 was around 30-35k same with 360s gallardos around 50 odd k! I’m just gonna sit back and wait a while personally

[isaldiri]

hunter 66 said:

Everyone else will be driving EV's that accelerate to 60 in 2 secs

Only if everyone driving an EV puts on super sticky tyres!

[Durzel]

Whilst I agree wholeheartedly with Leg (my father passing away was the catalyst for buying my first Ferrari instead of saving constantly) I would say also that it pays to be honest with oneself.

I've said it before but I can't think of anything worse (relatively speaking of course) than buying a dream car, pushing oneself financially to do it, and then being paralysed by either the running costs, the spectre of depreciation or threat of big bills (warranty can help here). Having it sat there and not being able to enjoy it unencumbered is worse than not having it.

The above said, do not procrastinate thinking that any day now the bubble will burst. I wasted far too long and missed out on several gorgeous F430s because I thought "any day now they'll drop"...

There is no sense dwelling on if or when the bubble will burst, you don't have any control over that. Just buy within your means, make sure other aspects of your life that you or your family enjoy won't suffer, and that owning one won't give you stress. Assume you'll lose the dealer spread + some depreciation, then anything you don't lose is a bonus.

Said it many times but money comes and goes, time only goes.

[aaron_2000]

So does anyone think Sapphire Cosworth prices will dip under £10k again?

[RDMcG]

He is right...big correction going on.

Simon Kidston, (who knows exactly what he's doing) looked at the Scottsdale classic auction this year:


73% of cars sold below low estimate

87% below mid estimate

6% above high estimate

example:
Ferrari 330 GTC $374k in 2010,$946k in 2013, $687k today.

I think the bubble has indeed burst. I saw the crazy GT3RS stuff ( I have some of them) and could not believe the mad prices people would pay. I am not a speculator so paid no premium and held onto the cars for use, not for profit.

[Pericoloso]

aaron_2000 said:

So does anyone think Sapphire Cosworth prices will dip under £10k again?

After some quick research ,only one car currently for sale under 20K is at 16K ,so seems unlikely to drop under 10 for anything

that doesn't need a bargepole to touch it with.

[aaron_2000]

Pericoloso said:

aaron_2000 said:

So does anyone think Sapphire Cosworth prices will dip under £10k again?

After some quick research ,only one car currently for sale under 20K is at 16K ,so seems unlikely to drop under 10 for anything

that doesn't need a bargepole to touch it with.

A few up on Ebay, but I imagine you're right, well back to dreaming.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/ford-sierra-cosworth-4x...

[Pericoloso]

aaron_2000 said:

A few up on Ebay, but I imagine you're right, well back to dreaming.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/ford-sierra-cosworth-4x...

I missed that one......

The Escort wheels don't work on these though.

[IMI A]

garystoybox said:

IMI A said:

What was list on a GT2 RS for example? Can't see them dropping ever so not sure what Harris wittering on about. I can see 488 are dropping like stones but thats normal with F8 around the corner.

Having studied Ferrari prices closely and bought a 488 late last year, the cheapest 488 on the market is only c£10k less than it was 12 months ago with stock of nicely specced cars selling relatively well. 458’s have, if anything, strengthened over the last 12 months and good cars are selling within days.
I think the problem lies in the excessive escalation of old Porsche’s. One of my clients has collected a few of these over the last 6-7 years and I’m amazed at how much people paid a couple of years ago for ‘tatty heeps’ I.e. a £20k crappy condition car suddenly became a £70k vehicle.... madness.
I think the market still seems strong for the newer stuff from the established brands; borrowed money will continue to be very cheap for next 3-4 years (at least) why will things change? I agree not price escalation but I can’t see new Ferrari & Porsche GT products plunging into the abyss.

You'd be shocked what a current trade bid would be on an 18 plate 488 coupe/spyder with del miles listing at £250k. If you can even get a real bid you'd be doing well. Trade a bit weary of them. I confess I did get this from a Macca dealer so he may have a vested interest in disinformation with a view to making a sale if this is not correct.

[dinkel]

AndrewD said:

He is no more “qualified” than anybody else with their personal crystal ball and a hope to pick up a bargain.

I think a return to the days when people bought cars for what they were is sadly long gone.

[dinkel]

You can buy a car cheap. Even a Ferrari. What will happen is: lots will get neglected or get crashed. Few will remain and as petrol cars will get scarce: they will demand a premium price.

Look at prices for 308 GT4 15 years ago: up for 15k. Now only a handful good ones: 70-100k. Espada dito.

Same thing will happen (happends) to youngtimers. 635 CSi was 15k and is now double...

[aaron_2000]

dinkel said:

You can buy a car cheap. Even a Ferrari. What will happen is: lots will get neglected or get crashed. Few will remain and as petrol cars will get scarce: they will demand a premium price.

Look at prices for 308 GT4 15 years ago: up for 15k. Now only a handful good ones: 70-100k. Espada dito.

Same thing will happen (happends) to youngtimers. 635 CSi was 15k and is now double...

£15k? I was watching a Quentin Willson video from Fifth Gear dated to around 2003, a good 635csi then was about £4k.

[sparta6]

ghost83 said:

When he says market slowing I don’t think of all the modern crop of cars over the last 5yrs which might be why your 488 and special cars are holding value

I think older cars like gallardos 360s 430s 355s which have all gone through the roof in recent years are the ones we’re going to see falling back to where they were, a few years ago a 355 was around 30-35k same with 360s gallardos around 50 odd k! I’m just gonna sit back and wait a while personally

Gallardo's / 355's etc have hardly gone through the roof. They are however sitting at considerably less than their original sticker RRP.

If you're waiting for a straight £35K 355 it might be a long wait.......maybe the bankers can orchestrate another 2008 crash