F430 Market Watch

Author
Discussion

Cosworth4388

72 posts

87 months

Tuesday 3rd October 2017
quotequote all
vxdave said:
Interesting that this car is now listed at £99K. A drop of £20K from when it first went up for sale.

I'm actively looking for an F430. This one isn't too unreasonable now from a Ferrari main dealer for a 2009 car with very low mileage and a nice 2 year warranty but I'm ideally after one with the carbon sports seats.

The F430 market is cooling. Everything on my radar 3 months ago is still up for sale. Whereas all the cars I have seen appear in the classifieds that were reasonably priced for their spec/mileage etc have sold within days. Unfortunately none had the carbon seats that I would like.

Dealers (mostly main dealers) are reducing the prices of cars they want to shift. Most Independents and those using SOR seem to be holding firm possibly in the belief this is only a temporary blip in what has overall been an upward market for many years. Who knows, I don't have a crystal ball, but maybe some will start to reduce prices a little now if they don't want to potentially hold stock all winter.
I've been looking at various makes models etc since I sold the M5 in May , I was looking at a Lamborghini superleggera in the Bristol McLaren dealer Rybrook ?
It was there in May at £144000 it's now currently just under £129500 .

The F430 in Swindon is looking better value and I suspect the dealer no longer has much if any margin left in the car

baypond

398 posts

137 months

Tuesday 3rd October 2017
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MingtheMerciless said:
I'm waiting for this (and Euro:Stg£ parity) to swoop on a Speciale.
just curious, what has EUR/GBP at parity got to do with swooping a speciale? or are you suggesting that UK RHD prices will drop to LHD European equivalents? But that has nothing to do with the exchange rate per se.

WDISMYL

235 posts

89 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
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I suspect he's looking at LHD cars in the uk priced in sterling and looking to pick one up and ship back to the continent if parity is hit?

(His cunning plan will fail because the Euro will be long gone as a currency before parity is hit! Brexit medium to long term is very bullish the pound despite what the desperate vested interests are trying to argue!)

MingtheMerciless

429 posts

211 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
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Wrong, my income is in Yooros. Roll on parity.

WDISMYL

235 posts

89 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
quotequote all
MingtheMerciless said:
Wrong, my income is in Yooros.
I'm sorry to hear that!

MingtheMerciless

429 posts

211 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
quotequote all
It's OK, don't be too sorry (I'm not a UK resident anyway). I'm just sorry I bought a 458 at less attractive exchange rates and hope not to repeat that mistake.



bordseye

1,992 posts

194 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
quotequote all
vxdave said:
The F430 market is cooling. Everything on my radar 3 months ago is still up for sale. Whereas all the cars I have seen appear in the classifieds that were reasonably priced for their spec/mileage etc have sold within days. Unfortunately none had the carbon seats that I would like.

Dealers (mostly main dealers) are reducing the prices of cars they want to shift. Most Independents and those using SOR seem to be holding firm possibly in the belief this is only a temporary blip in what has overall been an upward market for many years. Who knows, I don't have a crystal ball, but maybe some will start to reduce prices a little now if they don't want to potentially hold stock all winter.
Thats very much the pattern I would expect with a cooling asset market whether houses boats or cars. Sellers prepared to trim their prices in response to the market can move their item but many private sellers cant accept the idea that prices have dropped and refuse to adjust, or simply dont put theirs up for sale at all. |So you end up with a thin market populated mainly by over priced items that arent moving. Likely this affect the SOR market worse because the guys making the price decisions arent professionals.

Punters are sitting on their wallets uncertain about the economy and influenced by all the negative Brexit chat. New car sales have fallen as a result, and house sales in most areas are slow. I cant see the situation changing until the result of brexit becomes clearer and even then it will depend on public reaction to whatever deal we get.

alephnull

357 posts

177 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
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WDISMYL said:
I'm sorry to hear that!
Don't be sorry. EUR are going up. GBP is going down.

WDISMYL

235 posts

89 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
quotequote all
alephnull said:
Don't be sorry. EUR are going up. GBP is going down.
We are digressing but...

1) Long EUR is a very crowded trade, with a lot of amateurs thinking it's the easy trade.

2) The UK is much closer to following the USA with a steady rise of interest rates than the EU, which will provide support and increase the positive carry.

3) Just as the UK economy has surprised the market post referendum positively - the magnitude of the positive effect post Brexit will be multiples higher.

4) The EU will turn on itself when the UK stops paying its billions into the bureaucracy.

The BUT and its a huge BUT that in my opinion is keeping the pound currently heavily discounted is the risk of Corbyn getting in.

If he gets in then the pound will collapse, he'll bring in capital controls and it will be game over for those who are highly leveraged and unable to withstand the onslaught of wealth taxes etc.

Back to F430 market watch....

My view on the supercar market in general is that irrespective of overall perceived macro economic risks it is simply suffering from digestion. The huge expansion of car finance from 10 years ago provided a tailwind that has now run its course and entering equilibrium if not saturation.

Manufacturers have naturally capitalised on increasing supply into this increased demand but we are probably now going to see the buyer have more control. Ferrari probably rang the bell of the highs with its IPO. It will probably prove to be the natural signal of a turning point in the market. They will almost certainly be under huge pressure to increase supply to maximise shareholder value. SUVs from them will be coming whatever the purists might say.

I think we will see a fantastic choice of great cars compressed into the 100k to 150k range as value is determined by cost of carry (both interest related and cost of maintenance).





Edited by WDISMYL on Wednesday 4th October 12:10

Yipper

5,964 posts

92 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
quotequote all
That the car market is taking a pause in 2017 should not be a surprise to anyone. There has been a 7-year upcycle in classic and super car prices (2009 to 2016). Nothing rises forever, of course. The average Wall Street upcycle since WW2 is about 5 years.

bordseye

1,992 posts

194 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
quotequote all
vxdave said:
The F430 market is cooling. Everything on my radar 3 months ago is still up for sale. Whereas all the cars I have seen appear in the classifieds that were reasonably priced for their spec/mileage etc have sold within days. Unfortunately none had the carbon seats that I would like.

Dealers (mostly main dealers) are reducing the prices of cars they want to shift. Most Independents and those using SOR seem to be holding firm possibly in the belief this is only a temporary blip in what has overall been an upward market for many years. Who knows, I don't have a crystal ball, but maybe some will start to reduce prices a little now if they don't want to potentially hold stock all winter.
Thats very much the pattern I would expect with a cooling asset market whether houses boats or cars. Sellers prepared to trim their prices in response to the market can move their item but many private sellers cant accept the idea that prices have dropped and refuse to adjust, or simply dont put theirs up for sale at all. |So you end up with a thin market populated mainly by over priced items that arent moving. Likely this affect the SOR market worse because the guys making the price decisions arent professionals.

Punters are sitting on their wallets uncertain about the economy and influenced by all the negative Brexit chat. New car sales have fallen as a result, and house sales in most areas are slow. I cant see the situation changing until the result of brexit becomes clearer and even then it will depend on public reaction to whatever deal we get.

MingtheMerciless

429 posts

211 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
quotequote all
OK when there is another snap election/confidence vote/ Corbyn gets in/ sterling goes to €0.75 or whatever, I'm going to look for a panic sale Speciale with my humungously suddenly overpowerful Yooros. Or if despite its political leadership the UK gets its act together and short Sterling proves to be the wrong popular movement and Speciales go to £375k again I'll remain marooned in my 458. Not an apocalypse either way. Of course viewing cataclysmic moves in an economy only in terms of a possible car transaction might be seen as a bit investment bankerish smile

baypond

398 posts

137 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
quotequote all
MingtheMerciless said:
OK when there is another snap election/confidence vote/ Corbyn gets in/ sterling goes to €0.75 or whatever, I'm going to look for a panic sale Speciale with my humungously suddenly overpowerful Yooros. Or if despite its political leadership the UK gets its act together and short Sterling proves to be the wrong popular movement and Speciales go to £375k again I'll remain marooned in my 458. Not an apocalypse either way. Of course viewing cataclysmic moves in an economy only in terms of a possible car transaction might be seen as a bit investment bankerish smile
Your point about earning in EUR and buying UK cars when GBP collapses is exactly why I don't think UK cars collapse in price. European GDP is expected to be north of 2.4% next year, with fiscal impulses coming from Germany. The UK car market is going to be soft for a good while but Europe will help.

MingtheMerciless

429 posts

211 months

Wednesday 4th October 2017
quotequote all
It's enough for me if Sterling collapses. Actually that hurts me in so many other ways that I would be forced to buy a Speciale as a man maths hedge smile . It's like a Sterling collapse triggers a contingent Speciale put option or something.

cymario

578 posts

119 months

Wednesday 18th October 2017
quotequote all
really tempted to get back into an F430, been considering it for a couple of months now but cant seem to make that final decision. Can any of you remind me just how good they are? There is a particular car which I am still considering which now seems to be more reasonably priced for the age and mileage. Not sure how much bearing the colour (Silver) has had in it hanging around for so long?

S

MingtheMerciless

429 posts

211 months

Wednesday 18th October 2017
quotequote all
How good are they?

Can you imagine a better prospect than knowing that in a few minutes you will be a lot further down this road, in a big gear, high in the rev range (image from an epic Scottish hoon a few years ago):




cymario

578 posts

119 months

Wednesday 18th October 2017
quotequote all
MingtheMerciless said:
How good are they?

Can you imagine a better prospect than knowing that in a few minutes you will be a lot further down this road, in a big gear, high in the rev range (image from an epic Scottish hoon a few years ago):



That looks wonderful!

GG33

1,221 posts

203 months

Wednesday 18th October 2017
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Tell me it isnt beautiful...

Kyodo

731 posts

126 months

Thursday 19th October 2017
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GG33 said:


Tell me it isnt beautiful...
I can't. It is indeed beautiful.

RamboLambo

4,843 posts

172 months

Thursday 19th October 2017
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Supercars have moved on a long long way in 10 years. Loved both my F430 spider and 430 scuderia at the time but todays equivalent supercars are in a different league for performance, technology and equipment