Can Aston Martin Survive in the Electric Vehicle Era?

[Jon39]

quench said:

Jon39 said:

"I would say a minimum of 50% of our sales will be electric, possibly more," Aston Martin Chief Executive Tobias Moers said, during the Reuters Events Automotive Summit.

Can't wait to see those sales numbers less than 9 years from now...

What do you all think might happen? My own thoughts are as follows;

1. Is it correct to assume, that many present owners of Aston Martin sports cars, enjoy them as occasional 'toys'?
An important part of the experience, must be the exhaust sound and the feeling of an IC engine.
Consider the change from steam railways to diesel. Small boys crowded the platform ends, to watch the 'living' steam engines.
In the diesel era, platform ends are empty. Using that as one guide, most of the current owners may feel that an electric Aston Martin lacks the present excitement. They will be fast, but that feature will be present in many other generic electric cars.

2. The very limited market hyper sports cars, I think might continue to retain their present demand by the collectors.

3. For me, an electric car will just be a form of transport, so why spend £150,000, when it cannot fulfil the role of special 'toy'?

Aston Martin and presumably other sports car makers, must be hoping they can obtain a sufficient number of a new type of customer.
Perhaps the brand will be the sole attraction. I wonder what subjects Tesla owners discuss on forums? That might be a clue about what electric car buyers want.

A reduction in pollution appears to be necessary (is the La Palma volcano a pollutant?) so a replacement for mass IC is needed, but when Aston Martin has traditionally attracted enthusiast type customers, I don't think they will find the change to electric power a particularly easy transition.

What is your opinion about the electric future for AML?

[Jon39]

No need to worry. That 5 year period is a normal pattern for AML finances.
In fact you will have spotted the isolated pre-tax profit in 2017. Funny that, because it was just before the company flotation! A pure coincidence I am sure.

108 years of making cars, has regularly run out of cash, but the brand image and excitement has always lured another wealthy saviour.

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Can you think of another business, which has survived for over a century against the financial odds?

[Jon39]

When we are forced into electric cars, what should we talk about on forums?
I have no idea, but to be ready in good time, I looked to see what discussions take place between owners of electric cars.
Here are a few examples of what I found;


Not sure I can ever buy another car without powered doors.

One thing is that the Y has steel suspension, the X has cushy air suspension.

Is the Range estimate accurate for normal usage (2 school runs of 8 miles daily).

I am not an expert, but have a Model 3LR too - it's a very impressive car.

So other than the fact they don’t do them what is the reason you can’t get a towbar on a MS?
REPLY 1. - I've just fitted one myself to mine. It's only designed for bike racks, but fitted.
REPLY 2. - The car isn't type approved for them so the reasons would be its illegal.

Much fun last night when i tried to open the car and found I had been logged out of the app.


Will we all fit in with this new type of discussion? :yawn:

[Jon39]

A paywall unfortunately.

[Jon39]

hueyhoolihan said:

having driven an all electric car, i would have no trouble owning an electric vantage.

in fact, i hope there will be a big push to electrify older cars like my '07. the maintenance free reliability would be a godsend.

Send your Vantage to Wales.
Job done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezlC7FUca6c



Note:- If you do not know Guy Martin, join him for a bike ride. Hold tight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpRInymiOqE

[Jon39]

Simpo Two said:

.... the bloke who bought my DB9 new specified the Sports Pack... the ride is boneshaking. 'Yes but it's an Aston!'. The chap over the road brought his young son across to see it today. That alone is worth losing all my fillings for

Treat yourself to adaptive suspension for Christmas.
You can then have the perfect DB9.

[Jon39]

dbs2000 said:

You've nailed the EV argument nicely, its the future, we need to deal with it and you're correct with charging too, its nice to leave the house and not need to stop for fuel (unless on a mega run).

Perhaps EVs are attainable for most of us on this forum, but for so many people with a tight budget, £35,000 for a new small electric car remains a dream.

Andrew Palmer was recently on TV talking about electric vehicles. He said Moore's law applied to electric cars and therefore they would soon be available at very much reduced cost. What tosh! Gordon Moore was referring to the power of a microchip doubling and the price halving. Current EV batteries contain substances which are freely traded on the world market. If for example, the world price of copper increases sharply, battery prices are hardly going to fall. We are told that an EV batterý forms a significant cost of the entire vehicle.

[Jon39]

quench said:

NMNeil said:

And when the first cars appeared it began the demise or reduction in business for:
Carriage makers
Horse whip makers.
Horse breeders.
Stables.
Veterinarians.
Farriers.
Harness makers.
I could list many more jobs that were lost, but you get the point.

What a clever and witty parallel you draw.

Except it implies that electric cars represent the sort of technological leap over ICE cars that ICE cars represented over the horse and buggy. You go ahead and believe that if you wish, but it's nonsense all the same.

I submit that electric cars are more of a lateral (at best minimally upward) move on the technological ladder from ICE cars.

A perhaps surprising point which I came across.
In 1900, about 28% of cars were electric.
More popular then than today therefore.

When Henry Ford introduced his mass production line method, the petrol powered cars became significantly cheaper to buy than electric. By the mid 1930s, electric cars had disappeared from the roads.

Similarly, petrol cars are again now significantly cheaper than electric, but a repeat of history looks unlikely this time.

[Jon39]

quench said:

Well that's it, then.

Aston need to get their branding on this whirligig ASAP. Much better than submarines, power boats or apartments.

You must have blinked!
'The ACH130 Aston Martin Edition is available on request, with deliveries taking place from Q1 2020.'

[Jon39]

Finding Neutral said:

Well said that man. I’ve a few friends in nuclear energy and myself I am involved in renewables in a round about way. I agree with every word of this.

My background years ago was automotive and even back then the r&d guys didn’t believe the future was electric.. it was being developed due to pressure from the powers that be and grants.

Of course we never know whether, what we see on the internet is true or not.

I came across this chart.
What do you make of it ?

[Jon39]

IC sales ban extension

The EU are now going to allow low volume car makers, to continue selling IC engine cars for a further 5 years.

https://europe.autonews.com/environmentemissions/f...



Tesla sales slow

https://www.ft.com/content/fce717e1-b98c-4e93-b7eb...

I don't think this article mentions one possible contributory factor.
Tesla of course were first to offer an acceptable range of battery cars and for a number of years, the only 'buy in town'.

Now though, many competitors have caught up and there is a much greater choice of battery cars.
We see quite a number now on UK roads, at prices from expensive upwards, produced by many different manufacturers.
Presumably those rivals must be starting to have an effect on Tesla sales.

There is the first entry advantage, but we can remember numerous instances of not always becoming the eventual winner.
The Tesla company stock market valuation ( !!!! $700 billion !!!! ) indicates they will become the dominant player, as well as being hugely profitable.
We shall see in time.

(The most valuable UK listed companies are AstraZeneca and Shell ( around $180 billion).

Edited by Jon39 on Sunday 3rd July 12:06

[Jon39]

M1AGM said:

The ft article headline:

Tesla deliveries fall due to China Covid shutdowns and supply shortages

I’d say those are contributing factors?

A supplier of tesla powerwalls I know in the uk has 600+ on back order. Last week he got a shipment through, of 3, it will be weeks before the next, he has given up giving estimated dates to new orders as its now years.

Tesla’s mission is to own the home energy storage market, cars were always looked at as the way to increase takeup on their tech to achieve the goal. They cant ship powerwalls to meet demand.

FT article, yes quite.
I was putting forward for discussion, an additional contributory factor, which might not have been mentione in the article.

Interesting that their main aim is home energy storage. I did not know that. Probably better profit margins there, than cyclical car manufacturing.
A pity that supply is difficult.

I was interested in the Teslas announcement several years ago, about roof solar, which looked exactly like conventional roof tiles.
Seems to have all gone very quiet though. A far more attractive way, than the present roof panels.

[Jon39]

BiggaJ said:

We need to see a move away from Lithium being used in batteries. Here's one for you, Lithium complex greases have been around for years. A few of my customers make them amongst other grease variants. Just 12 months ago they were buying Lithium at approx. £7000/metric tonne ... today they are paying £70,000/metric tonne. ....

That is interesting. I have given considerable thought to the whole of this subject, in anticipation of buying a new car next year. Of current interest is a replacement model due for launch next year, probably the last new petrol model offered by the manufacturer (it will have just a modest size 48 volt additional battery, used as infill for turbo lag).
You will tell from that, I have not yet been convinced by the electric car revolution. Hearing about an expensive hybrid car, being written off after only 8 years shocked me. The replacement battery cost, was too much for it to be worthwhile.

Your mention of the 10 times price increase, reminded me about comments made by many people, that electric cars will become cheaper, in the same way that computers and mobile phones did.
There is of course one major difference, which your example illustrates perfectly. The big EV car batteries contain expensive metals etc., which are priced and traded on world markets. Those daily variable prices will not necessarily fall, just because more electric cars are bring sold.
Therefore electric cars might continue to be expensive.


EDIT

BiggaJ said:

I was told the other day (not sure of the legitimacy of what I heard) that this whole net zero policy we are being told to chase by 2030 is utter madness. apparently, CO2 in the world amounts to 0.3% of which only 3% is 'man' made and of that 3% the UK somehow bizarrely contributes 1% which seems very high for such a small country.

Do humans breathe out CO2 ?
Does that come into the 'green' calculation ?
If we all stopped breathing, would that be of any help in saving the world for the next generstions ? -

Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 7th July 13:00

[Jon39]

AdamV12V said:

This is sadly all very true. I can tell you first hand from experience that it happens. Just a couple of months ago my brothers 6.5 yr old Merc AMG E300 Hybrid refused to start one day. Upon investigation it seemed the small hybrid battery had totally failed. He had selected the vehicle at least partially because it was a hybrid and offered a lower cost of ownership. ....

I had previously applied logic and had therfore assumed, that when a hybrid battery fails, there is still a petrol or diesel engine under the bonnet, so just carry on driving IC only.
Oh no, if the hybrid battery is not up to scratch, then it seems the IC engine will not start.
Has that been engineered purposely, to sell more cars?

The case that I read about, was also an MB E-class hybrid. M-B of course want to sell new cars. In both instances the owners facing disaster, were not the original new car customers. Maybe that makes manufacturers even less interested in helping. Perhaps the new norm is for shorter life cars.

If this situation becomes widespread, which presumably it will, then buyers of second hand EVs and hybrids, will become very wary about buying those cars over 6 years old, when there is little, or no battery warranty remaining.

[Jon39]

Simpo Two said:

Well, I am no 'fan' of EVs, but had technology evolved differently and lithium batteries etc been perfected in 1895, would anyone really have thought 'That's a bit crap, I'll design something that uses multiple cylinders and pistons, a box of complicated gears, needs constant petrol and oil and hundreds of chemical explosions a minute'?

I have never studied the history, but would be interested in more expert forum contributors opinions.
Does the following have any validity?

1. In the early 20th century, electric vehicles represented a considerable proportion of all vehicles.
2. They were quite expensive, but so were internal combustion engine vehicles at that time.
3. When Henry Ford perfected production line manufacturing, of internal combustion engine cars, economies of scale considerably reduced the selling price of IC cars.
4. Much cheaper IC cars, quickly reduced demand for EVs.
5. IC cars became the industry standard.

Interestingly we now have a very similar structure, with EVs being more expensive, than their equivalent IC versions.
Different from the 1900s though, is that the extra cost is now justified by buyers, because pollution is away from where the vehicle is.
Maybe people did not think about pollution in the early 1900s.

Does that make any sense ?

[Jon39]

Hoofy said:

I'd love to know what a pure EV sports car is like to drive compared to a similar modern ICE.

(Richard Hammond might be able to tell you how the 2 seater Rimac performs.)

............

Facetious suggestion, but you never know, it might be true.

Take a perfectly balanced (front/rear) Aston Martin Vantage, then strap in 1 ton of lead weights.
Drive around the twisty Cadwell Park circuit as fast as you can and report back with your findings.
Take care at the downhill approach to the Hairpin corner. You might find the car understeering off the track towards Skegness!

Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 14th July 13:39

[Jon39]

I expect you have all noticed, that EV buyers spend say £75,000 to £100,000 on an electric car, then immediately say how cheap the fuel is.
Why are they even worried about fuel cost?

Must be almost the same as people who buy a £100,000 motor home, go to a campsite and discuss how much they save each year on 3 weeks hotel cost. Perhaps they are the same people! They cannot be accountants.

[Jon39]

ds666 said:

Jon - which EV's have you driven ?

None ds, but adding considerable extra weight, cannot improve the handling of any motor vehicle.
Colin Chapman was the disciple of that science and proved it many times.

[Jon39]

Simpo Two said:

Jon39 said:

I expect you have all noticed, that EV buyers spend say £75,000 to £100,000 on an electric car, then immediately say how cheap the fuel is.
Why are they even worried about fuel cost?

Must be almost the same as people who buy a £100,000 motor home, go to a campsite and discuss how much they save each year on 3 weeks hotel cost. Perhaps they are the same people! They cannot be accountants.

I thought you'd recognise Man Maths when you see it Jon!

Simpo Two said:

Imagine that you had the whole clout of an EV's power just from 0-30mph before you had to change into second - imagine how fast off the line THAT would be...

These days John, I try to be as law abiding as possible on the road. Want to keep my licence clean.
0 to 100mph to 0 in 15 seconds and top 180 mph, has never been verified.

To back up my philosophy, I noticed yesterday on the opposite carriageway of the M4, repeated flashing of a speed camera. Every oncoming car was being caught. Most unusual. After I passed the gantry, I could see in my door mirror, that there were 50 mph speed signs illuminated. Had previously not observed a reason for the other carriageway to require a reduced speed limit.

Imagine switching on the 50 mph signs, then collecting tens of thousands of Pounds every minute. How clever is that? Perhaps that is what Smart Motorway means (although they have been rebranded now, following so many deaths, to Digital Motorways). Wonder who gets to keep the fines money?

Have you noticed, many drivers won't use lane 1, so the hard shoulder is partly still there ?

Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 14th July 20:17

[Jon39]

SpeckledJim said:

You could absolutely have a single cylinder petrol hoover.
You don’t, because such a thing would be awful when it worked, and worse when it didn’t.

Yes, they are awful, achieve nothing, except to annoy anyone with ears.

The new name is leaf blower. In action already, blowing dust. Leaves have not even begun falling.
Blow leaves one day, then later the wind blows them back where they came from.
If your gardener uses these infernal combustion machines, it is simply a ploy to look busy, whilst waiting for you to pay.
Probably knows nothing about horticulture.