AML Share price fall
Discussion
dbs2000 said:
^indeed, the US economy seems like it’s on the brink of imploding
Quite. The economic growth is impressive, but it's driven by the US government pumping money into the economy with tax cuts paid for by borrowing $1.1tn a year. That's one thousand one hundred BILLION dollars the US gov is borrowing to prop up economic growth. In other terms that's $6800 per year per working US adult being added to the national debt.It remains to be seen whether the resulting growth can be sustained long enough to pay for all that debt, or whether this is just creating a bubble. Perhaps it can, perhaps not, but it's exactly that kind of uncertainly that will weigh on the share price of a company like Aston Martin whose sales are tied to US consumer spending.
Edited by murphyaj on Wednesday 24th July 18:13
I have been looking at a vanq but the offer on my v12vs As said before on another thread is offensive I would have bought a new vantage but cannot get over the look of it. I would have probably accepted the low ball offer on a new car if I had fallen in love with the new vantage and accepted that’s the cost of being in a new desirable car. Sorry Aston you aren’t getting any of my money with the current offering and I am sad as I want and desperately want to like the new Aston. To the poster asking whether £8 a share is bottom in my humble view its a lot further to go, there seemed to be a lot of smoke and mirrors before the share issue and the market always finds this out ,
With regards to the dbx 4x4 price it as a top spec rr sport and sell as many as you can make, pitch it with or above a ffrr and sell to the select few . Unfortunately I am no longer the person Aston want to sell to and that’s sad. But looking in the forum they are ostracising many die hard fan boys. I will always if possible have an Aston in the garage god willing but at the moment it will be a modern classic which is no good for aml
With regards to the dbx 4x4 price it as a top spec rr sport and sell as many as you can make, pitch it with or above a ffrr and sell to the select few . Unfortunately I am no longer the person Aston want to sell to and that’s sad. But looking in the forum they are ostracising many die hard fan boys. I will always if possible have an Aston in the garage god willing but at the moment it will be a modern classic which is no good for aml
murphyaj said:
dbs2000 said:
^indeed, the US economy seems like it’s on the brink of imploding
Quite. The economic growth is impressive, but it's driven by the US government pumping money into the economy with tax cuts paid for by borrowing $1.1tn a year. That's one thousand one hundred BILLION dollars the US gov is borrowing to prop up economic growth. In other terms that's $6800 per year per working US adult being added to the national debt.It remains to be seen whether the resulting growth can be sustained long enough to pay for all that debt, or whether this is just creating a bubble. Perhaps it can, perhaps not, but it's exactly that kind of uncertainly that will weigh on the share price of a company like Aston Martin whose sales are tied to US consumer spending.
Edited by murphyaj on Wednesday 24th July 18:13
I just hope that when Aston is eventually assumed by a major car manufacturer it's not Daimler, or even worse a Chinese company.
Bobajobbob said:
. If I don’t want one then Aston do have a problem.
They will exist but I know of no one who chopped in their Vantage for the new Vantage. I do know several who went Macca/Porsche/Ferrari/Lotus...Please don't shoot the messenger or blame the customer as no greater fan boi exists here, but we see so many mistakes and odd alignments in so many areas. They could be getting real and getting reactive rather than blaming everything and everyone but themselves? Or maybe it doesn't matter as the current incumbents have wet their beak?
£7.60 or my favourite company though - like 60% off???? Still hesitant so maybe that says it all. Need to see that DBX proper and understand that its hybrid capable too....
I'm not normally this miserable
AstonV said:
The government is not "pumping money into the economy" to prop up economic growth. Believe what you will, could care less.
I just hope that when Aston is eventually assumed by a major car manufacturer it's not Daimler, or even worse a Chinese company.
This isn't a matter of opinion here. Literally the whole point of the tax cuts was to promote economic growth, that's what it was designed to do. And it was paid for by borrowing, again that's not up for debate and was how is was designed. And in the short term it has worked. You can argue all day long whether it's good long term policy, or whether the growth is sustainable, but the statements I made are just facts.I just hope that when Aston is eventually assumed by a major car manufacturer it's not Daimler, or even worse a Chinese company.
Personally I wouldn't go so far as to say the economy is on the brink of imploding, but that is just an opinion.
You also can't argue that US car sales are booming. They are falling.
Edited by murphyaj on Wednesday 24th July 20:36
AstonV said:
The most ridiculous I have heard in a while. Our economy is no way on "the brink of imploding". The government is not "pumping money into the economy" to prop up economic growth. Believe what you will, could care less.
I just hope that when Aston is eventually assumed by a major car manufacturer it's not Daimler, or even worse a Chinese company.
Ah you are definitely an American...I just hope that when Aston is eventually assumed by a major car manufacturer it's not Daimler, or even worse a Chinese company.
English generally could not care less...
Quarterly said:
Its a tragedy that Aston didn't listen to its loyal core customers (including the 500 pages of criticism on Pistonheads) I guess the chickens are coming home to roost.
I got told off on that thread by a good Aston Martin friend for expressing my disappointment with the Vantage! However I stand by what I said at the time, it doesn't appeal to existing Aston customers and (despite what we are told) it doesn't appeal to the younger buyers. Reichman has dropped a clanger with this infatuation with sharks but does Andy Palmer have the balls to fire him? 
murphyaj said:
This isn't a matter of opinion here. Literally the whole point of the tax cuts was to promote economic growth, that's what it was designed to do. And it was paid for by borrowing, again that's not up for debate and was how is was designed. And in the short term it has worked. You can argue all day long whether it's good long term policy, or whether the growth is sustainable, but the statements I made are just facts.
Personally I wouldn't go so far as to say the economy is on the brink of imploding, but that is just an opinion.
You also can't argue that US car sales are booming. They are falling.
The whole point of tax cuts is to allow people to keep more of "their" own money. Yes that stimulates growth. It's "not" the governments money to begin with. Yes the government spends too much money, but that does not give them the right to take more of their citizens. The government needs to cut their spending, not increase taxes. It's a fact when taxes are reduced, tax revenues to the government go up. Most governments don't concern their selves with revenue, they can always print more money. They are more concerned with control.Personally I wouldn't go so far as to say the economy is on the brink of imploding, but that is just an opinion.
You also can't argue that US car sales are booming. They are falling.
Edited by murphyaj on Wednesday 24th July 20:36
Government does not create jobs, government does not create wealth. People create jobs and wealth when allowed to do so.
RichB said:
Quarterly said:
Its a tragedy that Aston didn't listen to its loyal core customers (including the 500 pages of criticism on Pistonheads) I guess the chickens are coming home to roost.
I got told off on that thread by a good Aston Martin friend for expressing my disappointment with the Vantage! However I stand by what I said at the time, it doesn't appeal to existing Aston customers and (despite what we are told) it doesn't appeal to the younger buyers. Reichman has dropped a clanger with this infatuation with sharks but does Andy Palmer have the balls to fire him? Had the privilege of having a special factory tour yesterday with my better half and son by Steve who is a wonderful font of knowledge... and some! It was a picture of a factory working-to-capacity with optimism and a genuinely happy shop floor.
Shares, projections and results will dip in these evidently tougher times. Just ask the near-history success story heroes next door, JLR. I don’t envy being any car maker at this time, but I’ll give it to AM - they are trying damn hard in every way. The could easily be sitting on a two model line-up and calling it a day on expensive development for another 10 years. That was it’s past modus operandi.
Whereas I was never 100% convinced by the DB10 when debuted in the Bond flick, I do recall a clamour for that car to be made. It was in the new Vantage, just better resolved. I still think my older n/a V8VS is the prettiest thing, but it is really starting to look very dated next to the new breed. Also, at the factory, they had some of the new Q paint schemes debuted at Goodwood (Steve had his hand in that... great story). And I have to admit I’m kinda smitten by the green one with subtle gold detailing. In the photos is great. In the flesh it’s stunning!
The new bonnet vent Vantage option was also evident. So they are evolving the model and listening. The trouble with the topic of design, everyone’s an expert. Only that they are not as projecting 5 years into the future is a dark art.
Are AM’s worth their asking price? I’d say “yes”. Any car for £250k is always going to be a lot, but a DBSS has a presence few others can match at any price. When I was a teenager, the poster car was the Vantage V600 with and incredible 600bhp/lb-ft. That was made by a company in a league of its own. And still is.
It’ll all work out. Don’t panic Mr Mainwaring!
Shares, projections and results will dip in these evidently tougher times. Just ask the near-history success story heroes next door, JLR. I don’t envy being any car maker at this time, but I’ll give it to AM - they are trying damn hard in every way. The could easily be sitting on a two model line-up and calling it a day on expensive development for another 10 years. That was it’s past modus operandi.
Whereas I was never 100% convinced by the DB10 when debuted in the Bond flick, I do recall a clamour for that car to be made. It was in the new Vantage, just better resolved. I still think my older n/a V8VS is the prettiest thing, but it is really starting to look very dated next to the new breed. Also, at the factory, they had some of the new Q paint schemes debuted at Goodwood (Steve had his hand in that... great story). And I have to admit I’m kinda smitten by the green one with subtle gold detailing. In the photos is great. In the flesh it’s stunning!
The new bonnet vent Vantage option was also evident. So they are evolving the model and listening. The trouble with the topic of design, everyone’s an expert. Only that they are not as projecting 5 years into the future is a dark art.
Are AM’s worth their asking price? I’d say “yes”. Any car for £250k is always going to be a lot, but a DBSS has a presence few others can match at any price. When I was a teenager, the poster car was the Vantage V600 with and incredible 600bhp/lb-ft. That was made by a company in a league of its own. And still is.
It’ll all work out. Don’t panic Mr Mainwaring!
nickv8 said:
... The trouble with the topic of design, everyone’s an expert.
Not sure I get your point? When Ian Callum penned the DB7 it was clear he is an expert. When Zagato built the DB4GT it was clearly the work of an expert and I will say that the resounding success and admiration for the V8Vantage showed that was expertly designed. The fact that the new Vantage has caused such debate indicates a lack of expertise in the design. 
I think some on here are making the mistake of thinking the downturn is something specific to Aston Martin; that somehow it’s the fault of the Vantage design for example.
Europe is virtually in recession now. Asia has slowed markedly (Singapore GDP down 3.4% in Q2). The US is going to cut interest rates in a few days time to stave off its own economic slowdown. None of these things are the fault of Aston Martin
And inevitably when you see economic slowdowns big ticket purchases like cars become problematic. Daimler had another profit warning 2 weeks ago, McLaren dealers refusing to buy back cars because they are stuffed full of stock. Nissan warned on profits today. Ford announced massive restructuring.
None of those car manufacturers are blaming the new Vantage design.
Some proportion is needed here. (This is not a comment on the share price, as I’ve always said I won’t comment on the valuation). Aston Martin are reporting higher sales year on year (yes up not down, with the new Vantage design). But they are warning that they won’t be able to grow sales as much as they had previously hoped for and indicated to the market.
By the way I don’t like the new Vantage design. So I’m not going to defend it. But even so I do wish people would stop blaming it for all the worlds ills
Europe is virtually in recession now. Asia has slowed markedly (Singapore GDP down 3.4% in Q2). The US is going to cut interest rates in a few days time to stave off its own economic slowdown. None of these things are the fault of Aston Martin
And inevitably when you see economic slowdowns big ticket purchases like cars become problematic. Daimler had another profit warning 2 weeks ago, McLaren dealers refusing to buy back cars because they are stuffed full of stock. Nissan warned on profits today. Ford announced massive restructuring.
None of those car manufacturers are blaming the new Vantage design.
Some proportion is needed here. (This is not a comment on the share price, as I’ve always said I won’t comment on the valuation). Aston Martin are reporting higher sales year on year (yes up not down, with the new Vantage design). But they are warning that they won’t be able to grow sales as much as they had previously hoped for and indicated to the market.
By the way I don’t like the new Vantage design. So I’m not going to defend it. But even so I do wish people would stop blaming it for all the worlds ills
RobDown said:
Sorry that wasn’t meant to sound lie a rant - I blame the heat!!!
The heawavet is quite clearly the fault of the new Vantage. Too many 'hot V's' driving the temperature up.And I'm convinced if the new Vantage had a slatted grill, the NHS would have got its 350m quid a week.
RobDown said:
Europe is virtually in recession now. Asia has slowed markedly (Singapore GDP down 3.4% in Q2). The US is going to cut interest rates in a few days time to stave off its own economic slowdown.
Genuine question here; but why is that? Why is Europe nearly in recession? Is it a knock on effect from slowing down in China and the US-China tariffs etc.? In other words Trump? I understand the car market slowing down due to diesel, and uncertainty of fuel/climate etc etc. Is it the 'B' word??
RobDown said:
I think some on here are making the mistake of thinking the downturn is something specific to Aston Martin; that somehow it’s the fault of the Vantage design for example.
Europe is virtually in recession now. Asia has slowed markedly (Singapore GDP down 3.4% in Q2). The US is going to cut interest rates in a few days time to stave off its own economic slowdown. None of these things are the fault of Aston Martin
And inevitably when you see economic slowdowns big ticket purchases like cars become problematic. Daimler had another profit warning 2 weeks ago, McLaren dealers refusing to buy back cars because they are stuffed full of stock. Nissan warned on profits today. Ford announced massive restructuring.
None of those car manufacturers are blaming the new Vantage design.
Some proportion is needed here. (This is not a comment on the share price, as I’ve always said I won’t comment on the valuation). Aston Martin are reporting higher sales year on year (yes up not down, with the new Vantage design). But they are warning that they won’t be able to grow sales as much as they had previously hoped for and indicated to the market.
By the way I don’t like the new Vantage design. So I’m not going to defend it. But even so I do wish people would stop blaming it for all the worlds ills
Yes but look how many models Ford, Daimler etc. have, no single model keeps them afloat. Aston has how many, 2 or 3? How can they afford to have their biggest money maker be a huge flop? I want to see them succeed. Europe is virtually in recession now. Asia has slowed markedly (Singapore GDP down 3.4% in Q2). The US is going to cut interest rates in a few days time to stave off its own economic slowdown. None of these things are the fault of Aston Martin
And inevitably when you see economic slowdowns big ticket purchases like cars become problematic. Daimler had another profit warning 2 weeks ago, McLaren dealers refusing to buy back cars because they are stuffed full of stock. Nissan warned on profits today. Ford announced massive restructuring.
None of those car manufacturers are blaming the new Vantage design.
Some proportion is needed here. (This is not a comment on the share price, as I’ve always said I won’t comment on the valuation). Aston Martin are reporting higher sales year on year (yes up not down, with the new Vantage design). But they are warning that they won’t be able to grow sales as much as they had previously hoped for and indicated to the market.
By the way I don’t like the new Vantage design. So I’m not going to defend it. But even so I do wish people would stop blaming it for all the worlds ills
silverspeed said:
Its not just Aston that are having a hard time of it . I understand McLaren are really struggling with loads of unsold stock at dealers. I recently been aware of 2 unsold Zag Shooting Brakes in the dealer network - both cancelled orders . Perhaps some reality setting in that the market for top end cars has overheated with too many models and too much volume and pricing under serious pressure .Speculators are running for the hills and private buyers waiting to see what falls out the other end . I'm sure Aston will come through - the business plan has credibility however I do think they need to concentrate on core product more with a really good offering that gets people hooked in to the brand - at the moment the focus seems more on limited production runs / specials with prices to match .
I was told one of those shooting brakes was ordered by someone who ordered it to 'grease the wheels' to get a Valkyrie - and is now being sold as unused by a dealer.Edited by silverspeed on Wednesday 24th July 10:14
‘’was a picture of a factory working-to-capacity’’
Running a factory at capacity but creating stock is a recipe for disaster, with reducing sales , aml have been chasing the golden goose of high price / profit limited numbers cars sold to high net worth from high worth individuals who are chasing the profit like a ponsy scheme , when the music stops whoever is holding the car that’s been creeping up in value is in the s
t. They have forgotten about the core people like us who maybe don’t change their car every year but love the brand and although my not be wealthy when compared to some do have a disposable income they can use to upgrade to a new / newer Aston every few years. If residuals are strong once you are on the ladder climbing it is a little easier it’s when the new stuff isn’t as desirable and the cost to swap doesn’t pass the make sense test and man maths doesn’t work the business model slips. As soon as the old chestnut of the swapper is worth peanuts and the new car is overprice but I aren’t or cannot drop it comes in to play the market freezes. This is what has happened to the share price totally over the top and the market isn’t stupid they are re aligning it but where does it stop ?! The second hand market is as valuable to aml as the new car market not in monetary terms but it allows the market to operate re aligning prices needs to happen, we saw what happened at lotus with bahar who wanted to launch a new model every 5 minutes , this isn’t Nissan get a fully cohesive design and it will have a far greater product life cycle than other manufacturers and evolve it, like they did with the previous vantage .
Running a factory at capacity but creating stock is a recipe for disaster, with reducing sales , aml have been chasing the golden goose of high price / profit limited numbers cars sold to high net worth from high worth individuals who are chasing the profit like a ponsy scheme , when the music stops whoever is holding the car that’s been creeping up in value is in the s
t. They have forgotten about the core people like us who maybe don’t change their car every year but love the brand and although my not be wealthy when compared to some do have a disposable income they can use to upgrade to a new / newer Aston every few years. If residuals are strong once you are on the ladder climbing it is a little easier it’s when the new stuff isn’t as desirable and the cost to swap doesn’t pass the make sense test and man maths doesn’t work the business model slips. As soon as the old chestnut of the swapper is worth peanuts and the new car is overprice but I aren’t or cannot drop it comes in to play the market freezes. This is what has happened to the share price totally over the top and the market isn’t stupid they are re aligning it but where does it stop ?! The second hand market is as valuable to aml as the new car market not in monetary terms but it allows the market to operate re aligning prices needs to happen, we saw what happened at lotus with bahar who wanted to launch a new model every 5 minutes , this isn’t Nissan get a fully cohesive design and it will have a far greater product life cycle than other manufacturers and evolve it, like they did with the previous vantage .
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