AML - Stock Market Listing
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Jon39 said:
SSO said:
I beg to differ. They are still burning through tons of cash (GBP 60 mil of the GBP 72 mil raised in the 1st half is already gone).
Very low chance they make the EBITDA target.
Very low chance they make the EBITDA target.
I know SSO, but as a regular contributor here, I must be careful about being openly negative.
Ref. low chance of making earnings target - that is why I referred to the change they have slipped in to their target wording.
Need to read between my lines sometimes. The size of the debt will of course be one of their main future problems, especially the high cost of servicing and reduction/refinancing. Going electric is another huge risk factor, especially for sports car manufacturers.
Much of the passion will go for many present enthusiasts.
'All going to plan' - the official line!
Jon39 said:
InvestIndustrial.
The private equity fund sold as much as possible of their holding at the £4.3 billion valuation level, which recouped far more than the amount they had originally invested in Aston Martin. Could it have been a coincidence that the IPO value was so high ?
Edited by Jon39 on Monday 2nd August 16:39
Q3 2021 results were published this morning. Still a fair amount of debt but overall the numbers look promising. I guess in comparison to 2020 they had to be though. Share price is up around 3.5% but it’s still lagging and is still a fair way off the highs seen in February.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/A...
Best Regards
Minglar
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/A...
Best Regards
Minglar
Here are a couple of points from the 2021 Q3 Results Q & A, which may be of interest.
CFO. "As we look forward a bit further in to 2023, when we see the mid-cycle face lift of our sports cars, "
CEO. The F1 sponsorship agreement. They are two separate businesses. "What we pay them is north of £20 million a year, but it is a similar amount as Aston Martin used to pay to Red Bull."
After each race we see much more website and configurator traffic.
EDIT
- A mention that the 2023 sports car face lifts, might be an opportunity to move specifications and pricing further up market.
- Valkyrie Spider was two times oversubscribed.
- About 30% of the Valkyrie Spider customers are Valkyrie Coupe customers.
- Almost all the Valkyrie AMR Pro (the track only car) customers are Valkyrie Coupe customers.
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 4th November 18:27
Old Chimer said:
I thought the most telling statistic was that just over 50% of all Astons sold world-wide this year have been DBXs.
I think 50% was the in the original plan.
AP used to speak about a total target of 14,000 pa. (50% SUV and 50% Sports cars).
The plans and targets now are, by 2024 or 2025;
10,000 vehicles pa.
£2 billon revenue.
£500 million earnings, before deductions of interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.
Jon39 said:
Here are a couple of points from the 2021 Q3 Results Q & A, which may be of interest.
CFO. "As we look forward a bit further in to 2023, when we see the mid-cycle face lift of our sports cars, "
CEO. The F1 sponsorship agreement. They are two separate businesses. "What we pay them is north of £20 million a year, but it is a similar amount as Aston Martin used to pay to Red Bull."
After each race we see much more website and configurator traffic.
EDIT
- A mention that the 2023 sports car face lifts, might be an opportunity to move specifications and pricing further up market.
- Valkyrie Spider was two times oversubscribed.
- About 30% of the Valkyrie Spider customers are Valkyrie Coupe customers.
- Almost all the Valkyrie AMR Pro (the track only car) customers are Valkyrie Coupe customers.
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 4th November 18:27
matrignano said:
Wait, so 30% of Valkyrie customers bought a coupe, spider and AMR? 3 of the same???
If one is just a millionaire, then buying a complete set of cutlery is probably fairly normal.
Up the stakes a little and do you remember the customer who bought all four versions of the Vanquish Zagato ?
Think he was on the Valkyrie customer list too.
Presumably a full set of Valkyrie models, makes a collection look more impressive.
Another world, but Aston Martin must be very grateful to have some ultra wealthy customers.
Probably no mention of discounts or dealer incentives, when models are oversubscribed.
I wonder what the new Range Rover will do to DBX sales, as that has again shifted slightly further upmarket. Although the DBX is selling well compared to other Aston models, I still don't see much evidence of it generally selling well over here. Anecdotal of course, but I've seen far more facelifted Bentayga's and an overwhelming amount of Urus on the roads, whereas I've only ever seen a couple of DBX out in the wild.
It will be interesting to see what the 2023 facelifts bring, although I'm not sure they can sustain a move further upmarket as Jon suggests. The product just isn't good enough, the interiors, technology, 'brand prestige' etc to warrant this, we all saw how much the new Vantage struggled at an increased price point.
What was really telling for me was nipping over the road from my local Aston dealer to Porsche (I need a new daily, fancied a Macan GTS). The wait list on everything is massive, 13 months for a Macan (a Macan!!!) mid 2023 for any 911 and they were opening up 2024 allocations. Anything nearly new that was in there was priced close to original RRP and seemed to be selling. It's such a shame that they can get it so right while Aston can't seem to generate the same level of demand...I'm not sure increasing prices further will help with this!
It will be interesting to see what the 2023 facelifts bring, although I'm not sure they can sustain a move further upmarket as Jon suggests. The product just isn't good enough, the interiors, technology, 'brand prestige' etc to warrant this, we all saw how much the new Vantage struggled at an increased price point.
What was really telling for me was nipping over the road from my local Aston dealer to Porsche (I need a new daily, fancied a Macan GTS). The wait list on everything is massive, 13 months for a Macan (a Macan!!!) mid 2023 for any 911 and they were opening up 2024 allocations. Anything nearly new that was in there was priced close to original RRP and seemed to be selling. It's such a shame that they can get it so right while Aston can't seem to generate the same level of demand...I'm not sure increasing prices further will help with this!
What was really telling for me was nipping over the road from my local Aston dealer to Porsche (I need a new daily, fancied a Macan GTS). The wait list on everything is massive, 13 months for a Macan (a Macan!!!) mid 2023 for any 911 and they were opening up 2024 allocations. Anything nearly new that was in there was priced close to original RRP and seemed to be selling. It's such a shame that they can get it so right while Aston can't seem to generate the same level of demand...I'm not sure increasing prices further will help with this!
Shrimp , they might be getting it right although not being to able to supply for 13 months won't help them as presumably you will now look elsewhere for that daily Macan ?!
Shrimp , they might be getting it right although not being to able to supply for 13 months won't help them as presumably you will now look elsewhere for that daily Macan ?!
Jon39 said:
These are the reported vehicle sales numbers.
Obviously the previous year figures are not comparable, because of the factory and dealers being closed during part of 2020.
I saw the table yesterday in the release too. As you say comparing anything to last year is pretty pointless really. One thing I did notice though was that they continue to use the term “wholesale”. If I remember rightly this used to be the number of cars delivered to dealers whether there was a customer order or not. I know the MO has changed and allegedly cars are only being built to order now, but why not just list retail sales and customer deliveries? I hope they aren’t still making the same mistakes that we saw in the early days of New Vantage. We shall see I guess.
Best Regards
Minglar
Minglar said:
Thanks Jon
I saw the table yesterday in the release too. As you say comparing anything to last year is pretty pointless really. One thing I did notice though was that they continue to use the term “wholesale”. If I remember rightly this used to be the number of cars delivered to dealers whether there was a customer order or not. I know the MO has changed and allegedly cars are only being built to order now, but why not just list retail sales and customer deliveries? I hope they aren’t still making the same mistakes that we saw in the early days of New Vantage. We shall see I guess.
Best Regards
Minglar
I saw the table yesterday in the release too. As you say comparing anything to last year is pretty pointless really. One thing I did notice though was that they continue to use the term “wholesale”. If I remember rightly this used to be the number of cars delivered to dealers whether there was a customer order or not. I know the MO has changed and allegedly cars are only being built to order now, but why not just list retail sales and customer deliveries? I hope they aren’t still making the same mistakes that we saw in the early days of New Vantage. We shall see I guess.
Best Regards
Minglar
I suppose technically, AML sell their new cars (most of them) to dealers, so that is the end of their accounting transaction.
They mentioned in the Results Q&A that they study the retail dealer sales closely, (but as you know) now keep that information to themselves.
Before the stock market flotation, the published annual accounts information was extremely limited, so retail numbers have only been made public for a short period. I think when dealers sell a car, they register the commencement of warranty with AML, so that must be how they know about retail transactions. Whether dealer demonstrators are included, I don't know, but the new car warranty must also begin, even though not a sale to a retail customer.
Funny how they have been talking about production now matching demand. I think AML have always worked on a build to order basis, until the point when new Vantage 'channel stuffing' began. Initially for Vantage as with any new model, there was 'new model customer' demand, dealer demonstrators and dealer showroom cars to build. After that initial period, dealer orders must then have slowed, but presumably AP decided to build extra cars.
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