AML - Stock Market Listing

AML - Stock Market Listing

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Discussion

oilit

2,646 posts

180 months

Friday 5th November 2021
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I agree that if i went to buy a macan or a 911 etc (is non special edition) and was told to wait 12 months i would walk out.

I wonder if one correlated the dvla first registered by model numbers with the quarterly report crom AM whether one coukd see what the resl sales in the uk were? One thing is for sure, the UK is not a major market for AM compared to the row.

Old Chimer

136 posts

46 months

Friday 5th November 2021
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oilit said:
I agree that if i went to buy a macan or a 911 etc (is non special edition) and was told to wait 12 months i would walk out.
I ordered a new Macan S last month. Delivery estimates range from next May 'til 2023. The way I look at it, that gives me plenty if time to change my mind if something else takes my fancy in the meantime.

Beckson

371 posts

53 months

Friday 5th November 2021
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I'm not sure I understand waiting until 2023 for a new Macan S. Great small SUV, but I mean... by 2023 there will probably be another facelift etc on it.

Old Chimer

136 posts

46 months

Friday 5th November 2021
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Beckson said:
I'm not sure I understand waiting until 2023 for a new Macan S. Great small SUV, but I mean... by 2023 there will probably be another facelift etc on it.
As I said . If it comes in May/June, great, if it drags on much longer it gives me time to change my mind to something else, or even to switch to the electric Macan due sometime in 2023.

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,933 posts

145 months

Friday 5th November 2021
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Old Chimer said:
Howmanyleft suggests the total number of DBXs on the road across the UK (or SORNed) as of the end of June this year was just 326. Something doesn't add up.

You have got me at figures again!

DBX Worldwide sales to dealers
2020 ............. = 1516 (production was during the second half)
2021 first half = 1595

All models UK sales to dealers

2020 .............. = 820
2021 first half = 434

Therefore, reported DBX sales to 30 June 2021 total 3106
'Old Chimer' (may we use your first name?) stated 326 registered in UK. Were you expecting there to be more when you said 'something doesn't add up?
This indicates sales in UK are 10.5% of DBX production.

AML have always said that the main markets for DBX will be outside the UK.
China might be one of the main markets, but I think only regional figures are published, so don't know China sales.
There is a new DBX derivative 'at sea now' on its way to a China unveiling, which I think they said was for the China market only.




Old Chimer

136 posts

46 months

Friday 5th November 2021
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

You have got me at figures again!

DBX Worldwide sales to dealers
2020 ............. = 1516 (production was during the second half)
2021 first half = 1595

All models UK sales to dealers

2020 .............. = 820
2021 first half = 434

Therefore, reported DBX sales to 30 June 2021 total 3106
'Old Chimer' (may we use your first name?) stated 326 registered in UK. Were you expecting there to be more when you said 'something doesn't add up?
This indicates sales in UK are 10.5% of DBX production.

AML have always said that the main markets for DBX will be outside the UK.
China might be one of the main markets, but I think only regional figures are published, so don't know China sales.
There is a new DBX derivative 'at sea now' on its way to a China unveiling, which I think they said was for the China market only.
Yes, I'd just looked back and realised my error and deleted my original post. The clue to why is in my first name - Old!

SSO

1,420 posts

193 months

Sunday 14th November 2021
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Thankyou4calling said:
I’m afraid from the table and report it’s obvious the DBX is proving to be an unmitigated disaster.

Wholesale numbers are quoted because registered cars would just look shocking.

Numbers are less than half original forecast.

This is heading for the buffers I’m afraid.
Just did a analysis of the Q3 results. Looking at the DBX numbers, its pretty grim. They will be lucky to move 3000 units this year. Straight line right now is to 2,915. Also looking unlikely that they hit the total sales target of 6,000 units. Cash burn continues to be impressive and not sustainable.

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,933 posts

145 months

Sunday 14th November 2021
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SSO said:
They will be lucky to move 3000 units this year. Straight line right now is to 2,915.
Cash burn continues to be impressive and not sustainable.

Another 85 units needed in December then to meet their stated target.

Perhaps every dealer will be sent a few extra for Christmas.
That should do it, AP style. - wink

As for cash burn, that has been an Astin Martin tradition for 100 years.
There is a difference this time though. It's the annual (about) £100 million interest cost.


SSO

1,420 posts

193 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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Jon39 said:

SSO said:
They will be lucky to move 3000 units this year. Straight line right now is to 2,915.
Cash burn continues to be impressive and not sustainable.

Another 85 units needed in December then to meet their stated target.

Perhaps every dealer will be sent a few extra for Christmas.
That should do it, AP style. - wink

As for cash burn, that has been an Astin Martin tradition for 100 years.
There is a difference this time though. It's the annual (about) £100 million interest cost.
They might get there on the DBX by stuffing a few more into back lots but getting to the 6,000 total units is looking to be a big stretch.

nickv12

1,359 posts

85 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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Was the projection of 6k sales devised before COVID? If so, production challenges may contribute?

Thankyou4calling

10,638 posts

175 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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SSO

1,420 posts

193 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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nickv12 said:
Was the projection of 6k sales devised before COVID? If so, production challenges may contribute?
No, this was Aston Martin's projection for total sales in 2021.


shrayus_shirali

4 posts

39 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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Does anyone know why DBX isn’t selling? Is it too expensive? Just not fast or luxurious enough compared to the competition?

SUVs built by other ultra luxury/performance car manufacturers so far have been successful, so why hasn’t DBX?

SSO

1,420 posts

193 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
quotequote all
SSO said:
nickv12 said:
Was the projection of 6k sales devised before COVID? If so, production challenges may contribute?
No, this was Aston Martin's projection for total sales in 2021.

and this is how they are trending:


hornbaek

3,689 posts

237 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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There is another topic which has not been discussed and that is that of looming impairment charges. If AML will have to shorten the expected lifespan of the sportscar range it will lead to a huge impairment charge as a lot of R&D costs have been charged to the balance sheet and will have to be be written off in line with the expected lifetime of the asset. At the IPO, AML choose to „activate“ a lot of group R&D (rather than expensing it in the P&L) so this together with the looming mountain of debt is a real curse looming over AML.

On the topic of the DBX. I have yet to see one on the open road in Continental Europe (and I drive 15.000 miles /year) whereas I see a lot of Urus‘ and G-Wagons.

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,933 posts

145 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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hornbaek said:
There is another topic which has not been discussed and that is that of looming impairment charges. If AML will have to shorten the expected lifespan of the sportscar range it will lead to a huge impairment charge as a lot of R&D costs have been charged to the balance sheet and will have to be be written off in line with the expected lifetime of the asset. At the IPO, AML choose to „activate“ a lot of group R&D (rather than expensing it in the P&L) so this together with the looming mountain of debt is a real curse looming over AML.

I posted about exactly that a couple of days ago.

Received an email from the 'mods' stating they had deleted my post, because I had copied something from another article.
Not correct, because the post was all my own words. Perhaps they assumed that I don't know anything about balance sheets and therefore thought, I must have copied it from somewhere else. Anyway, it didn't bother me, so I have not mentioned until now after seeing your own similar post.

Yes, the usually large percentage is coming back to bite. The huge percentage matter was discussed on this topic a long time ago, when it was first spotted in the annual results.


George29

14,708 posts

166 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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shrayus_shirali said:
Does anyone know why DBX isn’t selling? Is it too expensive? Just not fast or luxurious enough compared to the competition?

SUVs built by other ultra luxury/performance car manufacturers so far have been successful, so why hasn’t DBX?
Probably because it’s ugly as fk! Not that many SUVs are attractive. Just generally not as unattractive as the rear ¾ of a DBX


V8V Pete

2,497 posts

128 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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George29 said:
shrayus_shirali said:
Does anyone know why DBX isn’t selling? Is it too expensive? Just not fast or luxurious enough compared to the competition?

SUVs built by other ultra luxury/performance car manufacturers so far have been successful, so why hasn’t DBX?
Probably because it’s ugly as fk! Not that many SUVs are attractive. Just generally not as unattractive as the rear ¾ of a DBX

But George, that's the only bit of the New Vantage PH wasn't moaning about so they decided to use it on the DBX obviously rolleyes

DickyC

50,020 posts

200 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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Jon39 said:

I posted about exactly that a couple of days ago.

Received an email from the 'mods' stating they had deleted my post, because I had copied something from another article.
Not correct, because the post was all my own words. Perhaps they assumed that I don't know anything about balance sheets and therefore thought, I must have copied it from somewhere else. Anyway, it didn't bother me, so I have not mentioned until now after seeing your own similar post.
Me too. It's regarding cross-posting, which is banned. Cross-posting is a murky business and presumably PH's filters find all varieties of it. And rather than try to decipher which cross-posts are hostile and which are benign they just ban all of them. Mine was about a saggy headlining fix I posted in the General Gassing and Mercedes forums. Nope. Can't do it. Rule 19.

pschlute

720 posts

161 months

Thursday 18th November 2021
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If you want a proper SUV, buy the leader in the game ...a Range Rover. Looks 10x better and performs better.