AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
Note to self, check all posts and links before adding anything, forgive me, this is a very long thread 
Is there any seriously capable individual who would want to work for Stroll knowing full well that they are set up as the next fall guy to save face for the real decision maker - the EC?
If it happens, then this time, Reichmanns run of spectacular luck must surely end. Both him and the hapless and talentless Nurnburgler must surely be the first out the door.
The company will be forced to prostrate itself before the world and fully admit its styling faux pas when the new new Vantage is revealed later this year, forced to return more closely to the lines of Callum and Fisker.
I just don’t see how those responsible can survive that.
Is there any seriously capable individual who would want to work for Stroll knowing full well that they are set up as the next fall guy to save face for the real decision maker - the EC?
If it happens, then this time, Reichmanns run of spectacular luck must surely end. Both him and the hapless and talentless Nurnburgler must surely be the first out the door.
The company will be forced to prostrate itself before the world and fully admit its styling faux pas when the new new Vantage is revealed later this year, forced to return more closely to the lines of Callum and Fisker.
I just don’t see how those responsible can survive that.
Calinours said:
Note to self, check all posts and links before adding anything, forgive me, this is a very long thread
Is there any seriously capable individual who would want to work for Stroll knowing full well that they are set up as the next fall guy to save face for the real decision maker - the EC?
If it happens, then this time, Reichmanns run of spectacular luck must surely end. Both him and the hapless and talentless Nurnburgler must surely be the first out the door.
The company will be forced to prostrate itself before the world and fully admit its styling faux pas when the new new Vantage is revealed later this year, forced to return more closely to the lines of Callum and Fisker.
I just don’t see how those responsible can survive that.
Is there any seriously capable individual who would want to work for Stroll knowing full well that they are set up as the next fall guy to save face for the real decision maker - the EC?
If it happens, then this time, Reichmanns run of spectacular luck must surely end. Both him and the hapless and talentless Nurnburgler must surely be the first out the door.
The company will be forced to prostrate itself before the world and fully admit its styling faux pas when the new new Vantage is revealed later this year, forced to return more closely to the lines of Callum and Fisker.
I just don’t see how those responsible can survive that.
WARNING to senior PHers. Skip paragraph 3, might remind you of a body part. -
I normally bang on about AML's amazingly long tradition of wobbly finances, but there are some pluses.
Lawrence Stroll and his team are remarkably good at regularly raising money for the Company, so as long as the shareholders continue reaching in their pockets, all will be well. It is when busunesses run out of cash, that the end is nye. I think about £1.5 billion has so far been handed over by the shareholders and quickly spent, with more fund raising mentioned for this year.
As for the design team, I have the feeling that the DB12 and also the forthcoming revised models, have more Aston Martin about their appearance, so if sales improve then all will be well in the design department. Marek is the only person left in Gaydon called President. Mind you, being President of Gaydon, does not get you a ticket to the World Leaders Conference.
A CEO successor might be happy with the job, providing it has a contract with a generius early doors payment included.
AML still has a market value of £1.75 billion. Just the brand alone, must be worth a fair chunk of that.
A conundrum of numbers for Aston Martin shareholders.
18 Dec 2020
Number of shares in issue ......................... 114,933,587
Closing share price ................ 1654 p
Company value therefore ....... £1.90 billion.
Move on 3 years;
29 Dec 2023
Number of shares in issue are now ........... 823,663,785
Closing share price ................ 225.5 p
Company value therefore ....... £1.86 billion.
I will leave comments to others.
The supplier of electric power systems (but not batteries) to Aston Martin, will be the American (mostly Saudi owned) electric car manufacturer Lucid.
They have announced their car numbers for 2023.
'On a full year basis in 2023, the company produced 8,428 vehicles and delivered 6,001 vehicles.'
What happened to the unsold 2,427 vehicles ?
Do they just park and forget them, in the factory yard ?
Jon39 said:
One is a profitable good business, the other is continually in need of more capital.
Chalk and cheese: https://www.cnbctv18.com/auto/ferrari-market-capit...If I was being unkind I'd say that one is a company, the other is a badge.
But I like that badge more than the other badge
Jon39 said:
Here is your answer Nigel.
A great shame.
One is a profitable good business, the other is continually in need of more capital.
alscar said:
Jon39 said:
I am sure that you will also have some serious businesses in your portfolio, alscar, so as long as AML can continue to raise capital, you can just watch with interest. Of course, if the lenders (shareholders and bondholders) suddenly switch off the 'taps' to any indebted company, that is the end.
We have often been sceptical (with justification, 'we do not need money') of various statements by LS, but his wish to raise prices does make perfect sense. Obviously, that plan can only be successful if strong demand continues at the higher price points. Really desirable products are essential for that to work. The DB12 does suggest a resurgence of Aston Martin desirability, which should encourage both new and existing customers.
The 2018 launch was a disaster, which was so easy for many here to see. I imagine before the final go-ahead, a focus group were lavishly entertained and then they all said, we just love the new look and cannot wait to buy one.
The last time I checked Aston was, is and always has been a serious business, but you're right in that whatever it does nothing seems to necessarily help the sp recover.
I wrote off the money years ago and it is still the employee small shareholders who I feel sorry for given some were "strong armed" to purchase those shares in the first place.
However I suggest we don't continue talking about share prices or how well or bad the company appears to being run on this particular thread.
As enthusiasts we need to see the new Vantage ( as with any other AM releases ) succeed.
Yes quite right alscar, hence my post on this more appropriate topic.
Thank you for your reply. What I meant by 'serious' business, is one that is growing steadily and provides financial returns to their shareholders, either by continually increased dividends, share buybacks and/or, an increasing company value.
Any business that can only continue as a going concern, because it regularly has to raise more capital, is hardly a /wonderful/serious/good for the part owners/ business. It is constantly being financially supported by its shareholders.
I don't take too much notice of short-term share prices (except on occasions when some wonderful businesses become cheap during market crashes), my interest is more about the amount of growth in revenue and profitability. If profits grow steadily, the share (company value) will eventually follow upwards. Continual profits growth is always the key.
I agree with your 'strong armed' comment.
Years ago new issues (company stock market flotations) used to be priced at a level that usually resulted in an initial share price increase. Get things off to a good start.
That has all changed these days. The seller chooses the best time to sell, City financial advisers are appointed and incentivised by hefty fees to promote the issue (no impartiality there) and there is hype flying around to puff things up prior to launch. The new share buyers are hung out to dry. AML even had the cheek to announce a pre-tax profit for the year before flotation. A remarkabkle coincidence, because that was the first and only profit reported for years before, or since the IPO.
Experienced investors know all about these corporate transactions, but as you say, many AML employees and many small shareholders would have been simply caught up in the excitement, giving them an illusion that they could profit just by participating. A very bad way to start as an equity investor, because an initial loss usually means never wanting to do any stock market investment ever again.
A great shame, because businesses are of course the drivers of a nation's growth, therefore being a part owner of businesses can over a long-term, create independent wealth for individuals and families.
Saving cash and cash equivalents (although necessary) are not good for long-term wealth creation and in fact a guaranteed way to lose money. Inflation sees to that.
Calinours said:
Rumours now that Felisa will be paying for the sales numbers…
best line in the article - “Stroll’s index finger only points outwards”
https://karenable.com/aml-ceo/
Just confirmed by Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-06...best line in the article - “Stroll’s index finger only points outwards”
https://karenable.com/aml-ceo/
SSO said:
Just confirmed by Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-06...
Executive Chairman Lawrence Stroll has contacted current and former heads of other luxury auto manufacturers to gauge interest in the role, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the conversations were private.I'd love to be a fly on the wall during some of those conversations.
You have to ask yourself - why does anyone take a position like this? In my opinion (and multiple points can apply):
- They are at a senior level in another company, but facing "dead man's shoes" where they are and have aspirations to be the (an) ultimate boss
- The package is so enormous it's irresistible (unlikely considering corporate salaries generally, and AML's straitened circumstances)
- Their career is on the slide and they're looking for an out
- They've been found out or are carrying the can and are looking for another berth
- They've got an ego the size of a small planet and are convinced that they can turn it around (despite the evidence of history)
- They're ambitious and see a nameplate like AML on the cv could act as a springboard to a bigger company (only works if they get out after the turnaround "plan " is in train but before it becomes obvious it isn't going to work
- Their career is at an end, their current business is easing them out in favour of younger blood, they see a way to top up the pension plan for a few years, and are long enough in the tooth to put up with Stroll Snr before they refire to the yacht
- Daddy is the major shareholder and whatever happens it won't be your fault (works for F1 drivers too)
SSO said:
Just confirmed by Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-06...
Read your earlier article, 'twas prescient. I'm not a corporate/business type, so perhaps this is naive, but I was struck at the bottom of the article as to how many "officers" there are at AML, especially given the company's rickety state. Pretentious rebranding of positions that previously existed, perhaps? Or is it like the rot of the ever expanding and ever expensive, administrative and managerial types that has been eating away at so many other organizations, both public and private?Is this really fair at this time, because sales numbers were never going to improve, until all of the models have been refreshed.
The DB12 has shown what a current Aston Martin should be like, and has been very well received, but sales have only recently commenced.
One effect that must have suppressed 2023 sales, was Lawrence Stroll announcing ages ago, that DB11, Vantage and DBS would be replaced.
He was probably (yet again) trying to pump the Company share price, but in doing so, must have put Aston Martin buyers off.
He might as well have said, "Don't buy my cars now, because in about one years time, they will be replaced by much better cars.
Most manufacturers keep as quiet as possible about such matters, for very obvious reasons.
quench said:
Read your earlier article, 'twas prescient. I'm not a corporate/business type, so perhaps this is naive, but I was struck at the bottom of the article as to how many "officers" there are at AML, especially given the company's rickety state. Pretentious rebranding of positions that previously existed, perhaps? Or is it like the rot of the ever expanding and ever expensive, administrative and managerial types that has been eating away at so many other organizations, both public and private?
Don't forget there is still a President, sitting at his drawing board.
Acceptable for someone in charge of a country, but utterly ridiculous for a department head at a small scale car manufacturer.
LTP said:
Executive Chairman Lawrence Stroll has contacted current and former heads of other luxury auto manufacturers to gauge interest in the role, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the conversations were private.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall during some of those conversations.
You have to ask yourself - why does anyone take a position like this? In my opinion (and multiple points can apply):
I'd love to be a fly on the wall during some of those conversations.
You have to ask yourself - why does anyone take a position like this? In my opinion (and multiple points can apply):
- They are at a senior level in another company, but facing "dead man's shoes" where they are and have aspirations to be the (an) ultimate boss
- The package is so enormous it's irresistible (unlikely considering corporate salaries generally, and AML's straitened circumstances)
- Their career is on the slide and they're looking for an out
- They've been found out or are carrying the can and are looking for another berth
- They've got an ego the size of a small planet and are convinced that they can turn it around (despite the evidence of history)
- They're ambitious and see a nameplate like AML on the cv could act as a springboard to a bigger company (only works if they get out after the turnaround "plan " is in train but before it becomes obvious it isn't going to work
- Their career is at an end, their current business is easing them out in favour of younger blood, they see a way to top up the pension plan for a few years, and are long enough in the tooth to put up with Stroll Snr before they refire to the yacht
- Daddy is the major shareholder and whatever happens it won't be your fault (works for F1 drivers too)
Another question to ask is as follows;
Is the Aston Martin Lagonda CEO really a genuine chief executive, or is it just a sinecure roll, where you take orders from above, make sure that you recite 'ultra luxury' on the hour, and issue CEO statements which have actually been dictated by the Chairman and major shareholder?
A ventriloquist's dummy comes to mind.
Third quarter 2023 results statement.
'In line with the announcement in July, our objective is to repay the second lien in full. In November we will be redeeming 50% of the outstanding second lien notes and beyond that, we intend to undertake a fulsome refinancing exercise during the first half of 2024.'
50% Second Lien bond debt repayment was stated as the objective, but did it happen?
Do you think the 'fulsome refinancing exercise during the first half of 2024' will include another 1 for 20 share consolidation?
A brilliant way of confusing some shareholders and seeing a considerable increase in the share price.
It achieves no practical purpose, apart from increasing the share price.
A share price of 172p, abbracadabra, becomes 3440p
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 8th February 19:15
KevinBird said:
Read in Evening Standard: https://stocks.apple.com/AeDhYWoxCR8GxY3CDn3RUIw
Thank you for posting, Kevin.
Extract.
'The loss-making British luxury car-maker is seeking to refinance at a tumultuous time in debt markets following the surge in interest rates and uncertainty around rate cuts. Talks are set to focus on a $1.1 billion bond that’s maturing in November next year, with 10.5% coupon puts the company on the hook for payments of $120 million annually.'
We have speculated on here previously, that such negotiations could be tense. At least action is being taken early, as was the case latest time, therefore involving an additional early repayment fee.
When the 10.5% bonds were agreed last time, prevailing interest rates were negligible. Some blue chip firms were then issuing 30 and 40 year bonds, at not much over over 3%. The economics are certainly very different now, so what interest rate will be demanded by the lenders, and how will a loss making business be able to afford it ?
Strange about the promise of a part repayment to be in November 2023. The capital raise was connected with that statement. I have not read about any repayment having been made.
Mr. Stroll does seem to have some helpful friends though.
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