AML - NEW UK SALES
Discussion
Jon39 said:
Reported by Autocar, are Lawrence Stroll's ambitious sales targets for Aston Martin.
'Chairman Lawrence Stroll believes Aston Martin can sell between 12,000 and 15,000 cars a year, once its model range is complete.'
DBX and its SUV derivatives = around 6000 to 7500
Mid-engined models ........... = around 3000 to 4000
Front-engined cars ...............= . about 5000
'The company’s sales in the UK halved during 2020, SMMT figures show, but its performance in other markets has been stronger.'
Greg_D said:
So my 8 year old daughter has made £70,000,000 more than Aston Martin this year from her daily chores business.
Maybe the time is right for an IPO of ‘dishwasher and feed the dog Ltd’...???
Maybe the time is right for an IPO of ‘dishwasher and feed the dog Ltd’...???
Tell her to go for it Greg.
Is your daughter able to recruit somebody, who can build up excitement amongst the share buyers, before her planned IPO?
Maybe a more snappy company name might help, then associate that with some submarines and
You think I am making this up.
Put some chaps on bikes carrying big rucksacks, then who would believe it, supposedly about to be worth £5 billion.
Anything is possible these days. Plenty of eager share buyers around, hoping for a quick buck.
DBX
Retail sales numbers for DBX, are difficult for us to estimate at present.
No previous model to compare, dealers ordering extra cars for showroom, demonstrator etc.
Do the St Athan redundancies indicate anything?
Lockdown in UK, so motor trade very slow.
All quite confusing.
My very crude sample of Pistonheads adverts, reveals the following;
29 Jan 2021 - 8 cars advertised
Main dealer cars - 4
Other dealer cars - 4
Those cars still being advertised now - 5 (all except one, being at a pair of independent dealers)
13 Mar 2021 - 16 cars advertised
Main dealer cars - 12
Other dealer cars - 4 (the same 4 as on 29 Jan 2021)
There is one DBX advertised at Nottingham without any photos, and with a price which is about £10,000 lower than any other DBX.
Should we guess what that is all about?
This all tells us nothing, particularly during a lockdown, but to be more informative, I can refer back in a few months to see if the adverts have cleared for these particular DBX vehicles.
A simple anecdotal observation: Here in Southern California there are tons of Lamborghini Urus vehicles on the road. And if you do a search for them you will find exactly "0" available new at local (or nationwide) new car dealerships. As of right now there are 157 new Aston Martin DBX's available for sale in the US (According to Autotrader). That is a huge amount of inventory for a $200,000 plus SUV. Going back the last few years there were never more than 8 Urus' available new at any time on the same site.
I still have hopes for the DBX but I fear AM has a bit of a hill to climb. Lambo, Ferrari, Porsche, Bentley, RR all have strong brand identities here than AM just doesn't have. It is a crowded marketplace and shared platforms notwithstanding the Bentley and Urus twins each do well in their niches and feel very distinct. The DBX is getting good press. Will that be enough?
I still have hopes for the DBX but I fear AM has a bit of a hill to climb. Lambo, Ferrari, Porsche, Bentley, RR all have strong brand identities here than AM just doesn't have. It is a crowded marketplace and shared platforms notwithstanding the Bentley and Urus twins each do well in their niches and feel very distinct. The DBX is getting good press. Will that be enough?
UK Sales
March 2021 = 203
March 2020 = 148
Year to date
2021 = 280
2020= 286
Even during COVID-19 restrictions, car buyers are still boosting the overall March market, to obtain the latest registration number.
Only top dog until September though. That system is wonderful for the motor trade. Years ago, the industry successfully lobbied for a change from once each year, to twice a year.
As always, it's sold by AM to dealerships, not customers. It doesn't mean they are out on the road, or people are queuing up.
Though, they do say they have had luck in reducing dealership inventory levels which is a positive. I have seen a lot more DBX around in the past few months, but as I live quite close to a major dealer and not a million miles from the factory I don't know how much to read into that.
Good luck to them, the next few years, including the line up refresh will be crucial.
Though, they do say they have had luck in reducing dealership inventory levels which is a positive. I have seen a lot more DBX around in the past few months, but as I live quite close to a major dealer and not a million miles from the factory I don't know how much to read into that.
Good luck to them, the next few years, including the line up refresh will be crucial.
ExcitableBoy said:
As always, it's sold by AM to dealerships, not customers. It doesn't mean they are out on the road, or people are queuing up.
Though, they do say they have had luck in reducing dealership inventory levels which is a positive. I have seen a lot more DBX around in the past few months, but as I live quite close to a major dealer and not a million miles from the factory I don't know how much to read into that.
Good luck to them, the next few years, including the line up refresh will be crucial.
AML said they would move to "build to sold order "( sold to end user not dealer ) . Not sure if that has happened thou. Though, they do say they have had luck in reducing dealership inventory levels which is a positive. I have seen a lot more DBX around in the past few months, but as I live quite close to a major dealer and not a million miles from the factory I don't know how much to read into that.
Good luck to them, the next few years, including the line up refresh will be crucial.
Jon39 - on 10 April 2021 said:
UK Sales
Year to end March
2021 = 280
2020= 286
Year to end March
2021 = 280
2020= 286
From the AMLGH 1st Quarter 2021 results;
Wholesale number of vehicles UK = 272.
The total UK sales to dealers therefore almost exactly matches, the number of first time UK registrations with DVLA.
Worldwide wholesale number of vehicles sold in 1st Quarter;
Vantage ........... = 312
DB11 & DBSS ... = 289
DBX .................. = 746
Other ................ = ... 5
Specials ............ = ... 1
oilit said:
So Uk was 20% of total - not sure how that compares to a year ago, but still seems a high percentage.
It sounds/ feels like a lot of the DBX has gone to outside the uk
My ‘local’ dealer (Boston) has 11 DBX for sale and only 6 or 7 cars. Seems like a lot of inventory for the X. Hope this doesn’t end up like the Vantage fire sale. It sounds/ feels like a lot of the DBX has gone to outside the uk
oilit said:
It sounds/ feels like a lot of the DBX has gone to outside the uk
That has always been AML's stated aim, oilit.
North America and China were the markets they mentioned for the DBX.
There must presumably be fairly limited demand in the UK for a £180,000 SUV.
Modest UK sales won't help very much with the sales target of 5,000/6,000 DBX every year.
I have been monitoring the PH DBX adverts, just out of interest.
8 vehicles were advertised on 29th January, and some of those are still for sale. Obviously the UK lockdown during that period makes the study fairly meaningless. Two independents still have their cars. I guess they speculated with stock, anticipating a DBX waiting list at main dealers. Some of the main dealer DBXs have increased mileages and reduced asking prices, whereas at the independents, prices and mileages remain unchanged from January.
Edited by Jon39 on Saturday 8th May 11:22
oilit said:
Hi Jon - take a look on the other major car sale website and see how many are on there for sale!!!!!
Yes 21.
PH is now up to 16
My very unscientific monitoring, does show a number of DBXs advertised from 29 January onwards have ceased being advertised (presumably sold).
It seems to be the independent dealers who are stuck with stock. Probably logical, because most new buyers would want to purchase from a main dealer, except when there is a long wait for delivery.
_______________
PRE EDIT - BEFORE POST IS PREPARED COMPLETELY
Bamford and Martin subsequently Aston Martin, have been making sports cars for 108 years.
We know some of the ups and downs, there are mentions of going bust seven times, but delving into the history reveals more than seven financial crises.
Appointed CEO in 2014, Andy Palmer announced his Second Century Plan in 2015. It was intended to be a way of ending the long sequence of boom and bust. Although successfully steering the company to a valuation in October 2018 of £4.3 billion (Ford sold the business in 2007 for £479 million) the plan was abruptly abandoned after the company almost ran out of cash late in 2019. The rescuer following those circumstances, was the Lawrence Stroll consortium. Will Mr Stroll become a successful saviour of Aston Martin?
It has been suggested on this topic, that comparing recent AML sales numbers with those of 15 years ago tells us nothing and has no relevance, because there are now so many more sports cars available from rival manufacturers.
Competition has become much tougher, so certainly this aspect must be making the sports car business more difficult for Aston Martin.
The Historical Profits table shows figures from year 2000. Losses have again been incurred since the Ford era ended, but it should be noted, that Ford were reimbursing Aston Martin's development costs during their period of ownership, so the reported profits at that time might be considered generous.
HISTORICAL PROFITS
| Year | Pre-tax Profit | Notes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | £7.5m | |||
| 2001 | £7.6m | |||
| 2002 | £2.9m | |||
| 2003 | £12.5m | |||
| 2004 | loss £8.5m | |||
| 2005 | £23.3m | |||
| 2006 | £57.0m | |||
| 2007 | £6.5m | Ford sells Aston Martin | ||
| 2008 | £8.7m | |||
| 2009 | £6.9m | |||
| 2010 | £6.9m | |||
| 2011 | loss £33.1m | |||
| 2012 | loss £34.1m | |||
| 2013 | loss £25.4m | |||
| 2014 | loss £71.8m | |||
| 2015 | loss £128.0m | |||
| 2016 | loss £162.8m | |||
| 2017 | £86.7m | Year before the Stock Market flotation | ||
| 2018 | loss £68.2m | |||
| 2019 | loss £104.3m | |||
| 2020 | loss £466.0m | |||
| 2021 |
The operating expenses have been steadily increasing, one example being employees costs.
| Year | Number of Employees | Total Cars Sold | Number of Cars per Employee | Notes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 1,415 | 7,281 | 5.15 | Historic production record | ||||
| 2019 | 2,450 | 5,862 | 2.39 |
Presumably the AML sales volume now needs to be higher than those in the VH era, if sports car manufacturing is to be profitable.
If you agree with that logic, then a comparison of the core models between the two periods, might have some relevance.
The comparison also appears to emphasise just how crucial the DBX is to AMLs future, a new model authorised by Andy Palmer..
Frustratingly the more detailed worldwide (wholesale) figures have only been available from AML since their flotation (split by categories and not models) so to make the comparison, we have to make do with new registrations UK only.
CORE GT MODEL COMPARISON (UK only)
| Production Year | Year | DB9 | DB11 | Year | Notes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2004 | 330 | 109 | 2016 (part) | ||||||
| 2 | 2005 | 1255 | 496 | 2017 | ||||||
| 3 | 2006 | 790 | 594 | 2018 | ||||||
| 4 | 2007 | 844 | 528 | 2019 | ||||||
| 5 | 2008 | 567 | 260 | 2020 | 2020 - COVID-19 pandemic | |||||
| 6 | 2009 | 200 | 2009 - world financial crisis | |||||||
| 7 | 2010 | 175 | ||||||||
| 8 | 2011 | 101 | ||||||||
| 9 | 2012 | 67 | ||||||||
| 10 | 2013 | 139 |
CORE SPORTS MODEL COMPARISON (UK only)
| Production Year | Year | Vantage | Vantage | Year | Notes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Gaydon gen 1) | (Gaydon gen 2) | |||||||||
| 1 | 2005 (part) | 170 | 329 | 2018 (part) | ||||||
| 2 | 2006 | 1500 | 704 | 2019 | Nov & Dec 2019 subsidised PCP marketing | |||||
| 3 | 2007 | 1187 | 161 | 2020 | 2020 - COVID-19 pandemic | |||||
| 4 | 2008 | 829 | 2021 | |||||||
| 5 | 2009 | 640 | 2009 - world financial crisis | |||||||
| 6 | 2010 | 420 | ||||||||
| 7 | 2011 | 355 | ||||||||
| 8 | 2012 | 395 | ||||||||
| 9 | 2013 | 356 | ||||||||
| 10 | 2014 | 385 |
Data sources:-
Historical profits; Companies House.
Model numbers; DVLA new vehicle registrations quarterly data.
Sales and Employees; AML.
Edited by Jon39 on Sunday 8th August 23:05
Edited by Jon39 on Monday 9th August 08:07
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