AML Share price fall
Discussion
In recent times, any profit warning by a company tends to result in the share price taking a dump, and the vultures begin circling, saying the company's going under, the CEO should be hung, drawn and quartered... rarely does the news go down well. Glass half empty or half full. Aston continues to make a profit - it's had much, much worse times in its own history, when it wasn't taking chances, lacked ambition and assumed nature would just find a way.
The twist with Aston Martin and how us, the merry band of owners talk about it, is as interesting as the share price itself (to me at least). If we look at the key points (linked to that thread I started a few months ago about AML's future and what it needs to do to appease the disillusioned among you).
New Vantage hasn't been a flop; it's not been as successful right off the bat as was hoped, but it's a very different car to the last, in very different times. Entry level it might be in the range, the game has changed, and a sub £100k new model isn't going to produce acceptable profit for the company. Complaints about the size and shape of headlights, the choice of engine, the dashboard, the grille... haven't stopped it selling in parts of the world where the old Vantage wouldn't have sold.
The influx of low miles, used ones on the UK market (and possibly overseas ones too) - the back story for many is they were bought by owners who wanted a car to plug a gap while they awaited a DBS Superleggera or Zagato Shooting Brake delivery. They were only temporary, short term ownership prospects, and it doesn't cast a negative light on the actual car when you appreciate the owner's viewpoint.
The inconvenient truth is that PistonHeads is not representative of the overall reception new Vantage has had. What I'm saying is that just because a few people on a forum proclaim a car to be ugly, that isn't going to qualify the car itself as a failure, if they decide not to chop in their old V8VS or V12S. Of course AML would love that to be the case, but if it wanted to solely do that, how many VH Vantages exist in total? Build a car just to satisfy a few, or step things up and open up more doors - it's a business, not a private club (if we're honest, some would like it to remain a more private club, to stroke the ego and feel more special).
There's bigger issues facing Aston Martin at the moment, the same issues facing every car maker. This of course, is Brexit, and also the war on internal combustion engines. Factor those two together when you're a small car company, growing at a sensible rate, with ambition, and it's a difficult environment to operate in. Brexit and the apocalyptic fallout of it will probably end ringing in the ears of car makers for the next 2 or 3 years, so it's a case of weathering the storm between now and then.
With Bojo the clown front and centre, it could be a cake walk, it could be a train crash. Time will tell...
Had new Vantage arrived sporting a home brewed twin turbo V8 and in-house developed DCT, how much do you think it would be costing the customer, to recoup some of the investment R&D? I appreciate I bang the drum in defence of the 2nd Century cars quite a bit, to the point where I'm a black sheep in the forum - but it's worth mentioning again, that the sports car and prestige car industry is very different and technologically was decades ahead of where Aston's product range was in a 2016, when it was still selling cars designed close to 15 years previous.
Big strides had to be made to remain relevant, and it got over that hump, with a brilliant GT in the DB11, and exceptional sports car in Vantage, and a beautiful brute in the DBS Superleggera.
The mid-engine super cars will no doubt grate on some of the existing customer base, so the thing left to ponder is where do you go to talk good experiences and positive views regarding AML now? PH has become to the 2nd Century cars, what AMOC's forum used to be towards Gaydon era cars, where there are two common themes:
1) Talk fondly about the previous generation of cars. "they don't make them like they used to".
2) Talk negatively about the current and future plans, cars and thought process of the company.
But anyway, as you were. I expect the share price to stabilise, and creep back up, but we need the Monty Python sketch known as Brexit to start turning in our favour first.
The twist with Aston Martin and how us, the merry band of owners talk about it, is as interesting as the share price itself (to me at least). If we look at the key points (linked to that thread I started a few months ago about AML's future and what it needs to do to appease the disillusioned among you).
New Vantage hasn't been a flop; it's not been as successful right off the bat as was hoped, but it's a very different car to the last, in very different times. Entry level it might be in the range, the game has changed, and a sub £100k new model isn't going to produce acceptable profit for the company. Complaints about the size and shape of headlights, the choice of engine, the dashboard, the grille... haven't stopped it selling in parts of the world where the old Vantage wouldn't have sold.
The influx of low miles, used ones on the UK market (and possibly overseas ones too) - the back story for many is they were bought by owners who wanted a car to plug a gap while they awaited a DBS Superleggera or Zagato Shooting Brake delivery. They were only temporary, short term ownership prospects, and it doesn't cast a negative light on the actual car when you appreciate the owner's viewpoint.
The inconvenient truth is that PistonHeads is not representative of the overall reception new Vantage has had. What I'm saying is that just because a few people on a forum proclaim a car to be ugly, that isn't going to qualify the car itself as a failure, if they decide not to chop in their old V8VS or V12S. Of course AML would love that to be the case, but if it wanted to solely do that, how many VH Vantages exist in total? Build a car just to satisfy a few, or step things up and open up more doors - it's a business, not a private club (if we're honest, some would like it to remain a more private club, to stroke the ego and feel more special).
There's bigger issues facing Aston Martin at the moment, the same issues facing every car maker. This of course, is Brexit, and also the war on internal combustion engines. Factor those two together when you're a small car company, growing at a sensible rate, with ambition, and it's a difficult environment to operate in. Brexit and the apocalyptic fallout of it will probably end ringing in the ears of car makers for the next 2 or 3 years, so it's a case of weathering the storm between now and then.
With Bojo the clown front and centre, it could be a cake walk, it could be a train crash. Time will tell...
Had new Vantage arrived sporting a home brewed twin turbo V8 and in-house developed DCT, how much do you think it would be costing the customer, to recoup some of the investment R&D? I appreciate I bang the drum in defence of the 2nd Century cars quite a bit, to the point where I'm a black sheep in the forum - but it's worth mentioning again, that the sports car and prestige car industry is very different and technologically was decades ahead of where Aston's product range was in a 2016, when it was still selling cars designed close to 15 years previous.
Big strides had to be made to remain relevant, and it got over that hump, with a brilliant GT in the DB11, and exceptional sports car in Vantage, and a beautiful brute in the DBS Superleggera.
The mid-engine super cars will no doubt grate on some of the existing customer base, so the thing left to ponder is where do you go to talk good experiences and positive views regarding AML now? PH has become to the 2nd Century cars, what AMOC's forum used to be towards Gaydon era cars, where there are two common themes:
1) Talk fondly about the previous generation of cars. "they don't make them like they used to".
2) Talk negatively about the current and future plans, cars and thought process of the company.
But anyway, as you were. I expect the share price to stabilise, and creep back up, but we need the Monty Python sketch known as Brexit to start turning in our favour first.
Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 26th July 15:03
NFC 85 Vette said:
lots of stuff
Humm, not sure your opinions about "Boris the clown right, left & centre" and "the apocalyptic fallout of Brexit" help here. One thing is for sure and that's that he is not a clown, you may not like him but clown he is not. As for the apocalyptic fallout of Brexit you must know something no one else does. On this basis alone I'll take a guarded view of your thoughts about the success of the new Vantage, AML share price and CEOs . dibblecorse said:
Holy moly, 602 .... I jumped in earlier in the week thinking it can't get much worse, bought about 8k worth at c7.8x, watched a bit and it looked to be accelerating south, manages to lose £500 in 2 hours, so glad I got back out ... ooooops.....
Please do not lose sleep over your £500, because I can make you feel better.
I know someone who bought £30,000 worth last October at £19 a share.
They just thought it looked like a good business, although you can probably guess, it was their first ever share purchase, so they didn't even consider the price. £20,000 gone now, and no dividends.
They have now learnt something about stock markets, but will probably never use that knowledge to buy any shares ever again.
RichB said:
NFC 85 Vette said:
lots of stuff
Humm, not sure your opinions about "Boris the clown right, left & centre" and "the apocalyptic fallout of Brexit" help here. One thing is for sure and that's that he is not a clown, you may not like him but clown he is not. As for the apocalyptic fallout of Brexit you must know something no one else does. On this basis alone I'll take a guarded view of your thoughts about the success of the new Vantage, AML share price and CEOs . If someone has the ability to achieve a scholarship (not money) to be educated at Eton, then has the ability to gain entry to Oxford University, I presume you must consider me to be below clown grade.
RichB said:
NFC 85 Vette said:
lots of stuff
Humm, not sure your opinions about "Boris the clown right, left & centre" and "the apocalyptic fallout of Brexit" help here. One thing is for sure and that's that he is not a clown, you may not like him but clown he is not. As for the apocalyptic fallout of Brexit you must know something no one else does. On this basis alone I'll take a guarded view of your thoughts about the success of the new Vantage, AML share price and CEOs . All the AM owners on this forum want AM to succeed so their negativity albeit obviously subjective it is voiced with regret.
The only car in the new range that has been roundly criticised aesthetically is the new Vantage
and that has been universally praised in almost all other departments.
Apart from the sat nav screen there has been no negativity on any of the other models.
Only other dissent has been about the circa 40% increase in price on a decently specced model and I think that's fair comment.
Point is that most posters think that AM are betting the house on the success of the DBX and that's a big gamble
avinalarf said:
Agree with Rich's comments on all the above.
All the AM owners on this forum want AM to succeed so their negativity albeit obviously subjective it is voiced with regret.
The only car in the new range that has been roundly criticised aesthetically is the new Vantage
and that has been universally praised in almost all other departments.
Apart from the sat nav screen there has been no negativity on any of the other models.
Only other dissent has been about the circa 40% increase in price on a decently specced model and I think that's fair comment.
Point is that most posters think that AM are betting the house on the success of the DBX and that's a big gamble
Well said. All the AM owners on this forum want AM to succeed so their negativity albeit obviously subjective it is voiced with regret.
The only car in the new range that has been roundly criticised aesthetically is the new Vantage
and that has been universally praised in almost all other departments.
Apart from the sat nav screen there has been no negativity on any of the other models.
Only other dissent has been about the circa 40% increase in price on a decently specced model and I think that's fair comment.
Point is that most posters think that AM are betting the house on the success of the DBX and that's a big gamble
I think the main issue is that the latest update revealed, that a lot of stock is sitting with dealers (pipeline stuffing) as receivables had almost doubled in the published financials. This in essence means, that these cars are produced but not sold and the implications on cash flow are the real issue. Compare this to a 6 months waiting list for the new Porsche 992 and 12 months for the Ferrari Portofino.
Edited by hornbaek on Friday 26th July 17:21
I fully agree with most what NFC 85 Vette said.
"New Vantage hasn't been a flop; it's not been as successful right off the bat as was hoped, but it's a very different car to the last, in very different times. Entry level it might be in the range, the game has changed, and a sub £100k new model isn't going to produce acceptable profit for the company. Complaints about the size and shape of headlights, the choice of engine, the dashboard, the grille... haven't stopped it selling in parts of the world where the old Vantage wouldn't have sold."
Non-Aston Martin owners find the new Vantage far more exciting and attractive than the very aged previous model (Nevertheless I will keep mine). Performance-wise: the new Vantage drives circles around the V12VS both on the track and more so on the road during spirited driving. Its price therefore has to be compared with the V12VS - and looks really attractive then. A 100k entry car to the world of sports cars is the Cayman - something AML cannot build, at least not at competitive cost.
"The inconvenient truth is that PistonHeads is not representative of the overall reception new Vantage has had. What I'm saying is that just because a few people on a forum proclaim a car to be ugly, that isn't going to qualify the car itself as a failure, if they decide not to chop in their old V8VS or V12S. Of course AML would love that to be the case, but if it wanted to solely do that, how many VH Vantages exist in total? Build a car just to satisfy a few, or step things up and open up more doors - it's a business..."
I could not have summarized this better. If I look into print magazines or watch online-influencers the reception of the new Vantage was quiet favorable - it is a giant leap compared to the old car.
With respect to the Bojo sentences I don´t want to get too deep into politics. But it is a fact that AML is building cars with engines, gear boxes and electronics from Germany and brakes and other parts from other EU-countries. I cannot imagine any single company that will be hit worse by a no deal BREXIT than AML.
"PH has become to the 2nd Century cars, what AMOC's forum used to be towards Gaydon era cars, where there are two common themes:
1) Talk fondly about the previous generation of cars. "they don't make them like they used to".
2) Talk negatively about the current and future plans, cars and thought process of the company."
I sharply disagree with the following: "But anyway, as you were. I expect the share price to stabilize, and creep back up..."
Why should this happen? When? Since AP lost all credibility in the market, investors lost huge money, the share price will go up only based on real results. Real cash flow and real profit is the critical base requirement. Sorry, I do not see this happening near time.
"New Vantage hasn't been a flop; it's not been as successful right off the bat as was hoped, but it's a very different car to the last, in very different times. Entry level it might be in the range, the game has changed, and a sub £100k new model isn't going to produce acceptable profit for the company. Complaints about the size and shape of headlights, the choice of engine, the dashboard, the grille... haven't stopped it selling in parts of the world where the old Vantage wouldn't have sold."
Non-Aston Martin owners find the new Vantage far more exciting and attractive than the very aged previous model (Nevertheless I will keep mine). Performance-wise: the new Vantage drives circles around the V12VS both on the track and more so on the road during spirited driving. Its price therefore has to be compared with the V12VS - and looks really attractive then. A 100k entry car to the world of sports cars is the Cayman - something AML cannot build, at least not at competitive cost.
"The inconvenient truth is that PistonHeads is not representative of the overall reception new Vantage has had. What I'm saying is that just because a few people on a forum proclaim a car to be ugly, that isn't going to qualify the car itself as a failure, if they decide not to chop in their old V8VS or V12S. Of course AML would love that to be the case, but if it wanted to solely do that, how many VH Vantages exist in total? Build a car just to satisfy a few, or step things up and open up more doors - it's a business..."
I could not have summarized this better. If I look into print magazines or watch online-influencers the reception of the new Vantage was quiet favorable - it is a giant leap compared to the old car.
With respect to the Bojo sentences I don´t want to get too deep into politics. But it is a fact that AML is building cars with engines, gear boxes and electronics from Germany and brakes and other parts from other EU-countries. I cannot imagine any single company that will be hit worse by a no deal BREXIT than AML.
"PH has become to the 2nd Century cars, what AMOC's forum used to be towards Gaydon era cars, where there are two common themes:
1) Talk fondly about the previous generation of cars. "they don't make them like they used to".
2) Talk negatively about the current and future plans, cars and thought process of the company."
I sharply disagree with the following: "But anyway, as you were. I expect the share price to stabilize, and creep back up..."
Why should this happen? When? Since AP lost all credibility in the market, investors lost huge money, the share price will go up only based on real results. Real cash flow and real profit is the critical base requirement. Sorry, I do not see this happening near time.
Nbgring said:
Performance-wise: the new Vantage drives circles around the V12VS both on the track and more so on the road during spirited driving.
Going off on a tangent from the thread topic, I know, but I just love comments like this. On what roads are you driving where you can "drive circles" around the V12VS with a new Vantage, without losing your license? There's a strong argument to be made that Aston has no choice but to follow the industry trend of making faster and grippier cars with each generation. That (arguably) unfortunate truth aside, I'll declare myself as fully in the Luddite camp and say that performance cars on the whole have been more than fast enough for realistic road use for over 15 or 20 years, and that new ones particularly in the last 10 years have generally focused on d@ck measuring at the expense of driver enjoyment.Back on topic, I won't claim to be an expert on the inner workings of the markets, but based on its history and current position in the automotive world, I think it was a mistake to take Aston public in the first place, and market fluctuations / local and global politics and trade notwithstanding, I think the share prices are reflecting this.
quench said:
Going off on a tangent from the thread topic, I know, but I just love comments like this. On what roads are you driving where you can "drive circles" around the V12VS with a new Vantage, without losing your license? There's a strong argument to be made that Aston has no choice but to follow the industry trend of making faster and grippier cars with each generation. That (arguably) unfortunate truth aside, I'll declare myself as fully in the Luddite camp and say that performance cars on the whole have been more than fast enough for realistic road use for over 15 or 20 years, and that new ones particularly in the last 10 years have generally focused on d@ck measuring at the expense of driver enjoyment.
Back on topic, I won't claim to be an expert on the inner workings of the markets, but based on its history and current position in the automotive world, I think it was a mistake to take Aston public in the first place, and market fluctuations / local and global politics and trade notwithstanding, I think the share prices are reflecting this.
One assumes you have driven new Vantage?Back on topic, I won't claim to be an expert on the inner workings of the markets, but based on its history and current position in the automotive world, I think it was a mistake to take Aston public in the first place, and market fluctuations / local and global politics and trade notwithstanding, I think the share prices are reflecting this.
AMVSVNick said:
Agreed - whilst I deliberately sought out my own V8VSR because I wanted one of the last Naturally Aspirated V8s, I don't loathe the new car looks at all - the DB11 and DBS in particular I really like and the back of the current V8V is very cool. The DB9/DBS/Virage/Vanquish/V8V/V12V however do not look "current" any more, they look beautiful, they look like they are future classics.quench said:
Going off on a tangent from the thread topic, I know, but I just love comments like this. On what roads are you driving where you can "drive circles" around the V12VS with a new Vantage, without losing your license? There's a strong argument to be made that Aston has no choice but to follow the industry trend of making faster and grippier cars with each generation. That (arguably) unfortunate truth aside, I'll declare myself as fully in the Luddite camp and say that performance cars on the whole have been more than fast enough for realistic road use for over 15 or 20 years, and that new ones particularly in the last 10 years have generally focused on d@ck measuring at the expense of driver enjoyment.
Back on topic, I won't claim to be an expert on the inner workings of the markets, but based on its history and current position in the automotive world, I think it was a mistake to take Aston public in the first place, and market fluctuations / local and global politics and trade notwithstanding, I think the share prices are reflecting this.
Back on topic, I won't claim to be an expert on the inner workings of the markets, but based on its history and current position in the automotive world, I think it was a mistake to take Aston public in the first place, and market fluctuations / local and global politics and trade notwithstanding, I think the share prices are reflecting this.
I certainly agree with your first point. Even with my humble 4.7, I cannot drive at full power on UK roads today, for more than a few seconds at a time. This aspect should be mentioned more often, but all we hear is that the latest model sports car will reach 60 mph much faster than its predecessor.
On your second point, I have always had concerns about AML becoming a publicly listed company. We would not be having this discussion for one thing. However, the 'seed was planted' quite a while ago, by whoever accepted investment from a private equity firm. That was what made an eventual stock market listing a likelihood.
Obviously we don't know anything about discussions between the major shareholder groups, but private equity firms do tend to be only medium-term holders of the businesses in which they invest.
Edited by Jon39 on Friday 26th July 19:31
AMVSVNick said:
NFC 85 Vette said:
I appreciate I bang the drum in defence of the 2nd Century cars quite a bit, to the point where I'm a black sheep in the forum
nick , It will look dated but will still be the most beautiful car there and the one I would take over any of them All this talk of the forum not being representative, I cannot think of many more places there are with owners in one area.
Edited by B4rnst4ble on Friday 26th July 19:54
avinalarf said:
Apart from the sat nav screen there has been no negativity on any of the other models.
Sorry, but I can´t hold back here: Would you say the DB11 has been as convincing resp. as well received as its celebrated predecessor? I would say certainly not. As of today´s luxury GT cars´ world, I would say among the blind the one-eyed is king (o.k., a bit harsh perhaps, but you get what I am trying to say).Edited by Emilio Largo on Friday 26th July 20:06
All very grown up this thread and not that i like to put myself down but these ones i like to just read. Even though i am not far off the less powerfully built company Director!
But someone mentioned about New Vantage not being a flop and its the PH massive that do not really sing its praises.
I am recently a member of the Facebook V8/V13 Owners group. Now the clientele on there are more, lets say worldwide. Probably more made up of US owners. Totally different opinions and with the New Vantage, owners/admirers cannot sing its praises enough. Rarely on here do we really see pics of "just picked up my new Aston" because owners here probably still staring at the Ford indicator stalks, happily like me!
But to caveat that, the "old" Vantage is still a firm favourite on the group pages.
Another thing is PH seem to be more worldly wise on the ownership of Astons whereas on the FB page, constantly you get a picture of the Emission Service light showing where the US owners will say "take it to your dealer" but the Brit will post "stop being a wuss and give it some welly for a few miles, that will do it".
Personally the price whilst the norm now, is too high. But here is the thing. For some reason someone gave me say £110k for a 2nd hand car would i be looking at a 2nd hand New Vantage..........mmmm, ill be sitting in 12c/540c quicker than you can say "what Mclaren warranty?"!
But someone mentioned about New Vantage not being a flop and its the PH massive that do not really sing its praises.
I am recently a member of the Facebook V8/V13 Owners group. Now the clientele on there are more, lets say worldwide. Probably more made up of US owners. Totally different opinions and with the New Vantage, owners/admirers cannot sing its praises enough. Rarely on here do we really see pics of "just picked up my new Aston" because owners here probably still staring at the Ford indicator stalks, happily like me!
But to caveat that, the "old" Vantage is still a firm favourite on the group pages.
Another thing is PH seem to be more worldly wise on the ownership of Astons whereas on the FB page, constantly you get a picture of the Emission Service light showing where the US owners will say "take it to your dealer" but the Brit will post "stop being a wuss and give it some welly for a few miles, that will do it".
Personally the price whilst the norm now, is too high. But here is the thing. For some reason someone gave me say £110k for a 2nd hand car would i be looking at a 2nd hand New Vantage..........mmmm, ill be sitting in 12c/540c quicker than you can say "what Mclaren warranty?"!
I was a bit skeptical of a few posters here saying they're an Aston owner but not interested in the new Vantage (or anything else AM ATM) but just having had a conversation with my mate (who is a mulitmillilonaire previous 4.7 Vantage owner) briefly mentioned Astons stock prices, he says he's not interested in any of the current AM models and doesn't like the look pr interior of the Vantage at all so won't be buying. Oh dear.
I also read an article that reckons that AMs IPO was just a payday for existing executives/owners.
I also read an article that reckons that AMs IPO was just a payday for existing executives/owners.
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