Gone very quiet

[105.4]

skwdenyer said:

ben5575 said:

DSLiverpool said:

Huge growth in 3PL (contracted out store, pick, pack, ship) as brands don’t want the commitment of a warehouse lease / staff etc plus you can scale up / down.

3PL is where it’s at.

Just to +1 this post in case you felt it fell on deaf ears. This is a massive growth sector. And such an obvious one when you think about. Like all good ideas.

I can do land, planning, buildings and finance. If anybody on here does logistics dm me and this time next year we’ll be millionaires

Interesting. I’ll write a longer post later, but I’m about to take our UK stock out of 3PL because it isn’t cost-effective. Millionaires is right - rates are high for the service I also use NL 3PL, which is better but still inflexible for our needs.

If you have packaged goods and easy returns, 3PL makes a lot of sense (just not FBA unless you sell primarily single units); if your needs are complex, require judgement, or don’t turn very fast, my own experience is that I’d *fully* model *all* of the costs and opportunities before deciding on 3PL.

I have no idea what the three of you are talking about

[gotoPzero]

clockworks said:

I've never understood the "returns culture". If I order something online, I'll only return it if it's damaged or faulty (for replacement), or if it's junk (not as described, not fit for purpose).

Returning items because the buyer has changed their mind, or ordered several and just picked one to keep, seems like a massive waste of time and money for everyone concerned.

Just go to your local post office in the morning, its mostly 25-30 year old females with 3 or 4 packets all to be returned. I used to go to the post office nearly every day (business banking) and it was crazy to see it like that every day.

[DSLiverpool]

105.4 said:

I have no idea what the three of you are talking about

Brief exp - say Next put all their stock in your garage and send you the customers details to deliver orders for them - you pick, pack n ship (and store)

[DSLiverpool]

skwdenyer said:

Interesting. I’ll write a longer post later, but I’m about to take our UK stock out of 3PL because it isn’t cost-effective. Millionaires is right - rates are high for the service I also use NL 3PL, which is better but still inflexible for our needs.

If you have packaged goods and easy returns, 3PL makes a lot of sense (just not FBA unless you sell primarily single units); if your needs are complex, require judgement, or don’t turn very fast, my own experience is that I’d *fully* model *all* of the costs and opportunities before deciding on 3PL.

That’s why I’ve helped them create a highly configurable new 3pl - but we’re limited to 50 pallets right now (which should be full this week). It’s run by e-commerce guys who know the score and as it’s small we’re flexible BUT every action has a cost - just a reasonable one.

[105.4]

DSLiverpool said:

105.4 said:

I have no idea what the three of you are talking about

Brief exp - say Next put all their stock in your garage and send you the customers details to deliver orders for them - you pick, pack n ship (and store)

Thanks DS

It sounds very similar to what one of the guys I’m subbed to does.

Based upon his cars and his holidays, he seems to make a very decent living out of it, but he sure puts the hours in.

[Frimley111R]

gotoPzero said:

clockworks said:

I've never understood the "returns culture". If I order something online, I'll only return it if it's damaged or faulty (for replacement), or if it's junk (not as described, not fit for purpose).

Returning items because the buyer has changed their mind, or ordered several and just picked one to keep, seems like a massive waste of time and money for everyone concerned.

Just go to your local post office in the morning, its mostly 25-30 year old females with 3 or 4 packets all to be returned. I used to go to the post office nearly every day (business banking) and it was crazy to see it like that every day.

My sister does this. Every time I see her she is taking stuff back. Problem is, is that the easier ASOS make it the more she is likely to buy a shed load of clothes, keep one and return all the others.

[egor110]

ben5575 said:

Just to +1 this post in case you felt it fell on deaf ears. This is a massive growth sector. And such an obvious one when you think about. Like all good ideas.

I can do land, planning, buildings and finance. If anybody on here does logistics dm me and this time next year we’ll be millionaires

Which companies have shares in this sector?

[President Merkin]

3PL is big business, really big business. If you want shares in it, then WIncanton, XPO, DX, GXO just off the top of my head. 4PL is where the action is at. 3PL with none of the overhead and all of the cost saving. Willing to take enquiries any time

Edited by President Merkin on Tuesday 9th May 10:24

[Louis Balfour]

Frimley111R said:

gotoPzero said:

clockworks said:

I've never understood the "returns culture". If I order something online, I'll only return it if it's damaged or faulty (for replacement), or if it's junk (not as described, not fit for purpose).

Returning items because the buyer has changed their mind, or ordered several and just picked one to keep, seems like a massive waste of time and money for everyone concerned.

Just go to your local post office in the morning, its mostly 25-30 year old females with 3 or 4 packets all to be returned. I used to go to the post office nearly every day (business banking) and it was crazy to see it like that every day.

My sister does this. Every time I see her she is taking stuff back. Problem is, is that the easier ASOS make it the more she is likely to buy a shed load of clothes, keep one and return all the others.

I think charging SOMETHING for postage and returns is smart. It makes people a LITTLE more careful with their order I suspect.

But then, the big businesses that do free both ways have no doubt done their maths.

[classicaholic]

Engineering here, Still very quiet but enquiries have increased and we have quoted 400% more than this time last year, stuff going in for capEx but taking a while but at least we are seeing companies thinking of investing in plant again! Fingers crosse that some of it comes off, our normal quote to order ratio is 33 - 50% so if it all comes off we will be in trouble keeping up!

[Digga]

Posted this informatoin on another thread, but it's sort of relevant here and I found the data interesting.

These are UK parliament research 2022 figures for UK Business statistics:

	Businesses	Employment	Turnover	Businesses	Employment	Turnover
	000s	000s	£ billions	%	%	%
With no employees	4,061	4,399	278	74%	16%	7%
SMEs (0-249 employees)	5,501	16,432	2,124	99.9%	61%	51%
Micro (0-9 employees)	5,248	8,708	808	95%	32%	19%
Small (10-49 employees)	217	4,228	609	4%	16%	15%
Medium (50-249 employees)	36	3,497	708	1%	13%	17%
Large (250+ employees)	8	10,622	2,032	0.1%	39%	49%
Total, all businesses	5,509	27,054	4,157	100%	100%	100%

So, from that:

10,622 (000) Large company employees generated £2,032bn = £0.191bn per capita
16,432 (00) SME 0-240 employees generated £2,124 bn = £0.129bn per capita

Larger firms with, in some cases, enormously more capital invested, generate just 48% more per capita.

That's not as much as I'd have thought and, with the right incentive and policy, the SME count could be far higher.


Link to the full data PDF: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&a...
[/quote]

[jammy-git]

The Tories have definitely made things easier for larger corporations over the last 15 years whilst simultaneously making things harder for SMEs.

[ashleyman]

Frimley111R said:

gotoPzero said:

clockworks said:

I've never understood the "returns culture". If I order something online, I'll only return it if it's damaged or faulty (for replacement), or if it's junk (not as described, not fit for purpose).

Returning items because the buyer has changed their mind, or ordered several and just picked one to keep, seems like a massive waste of time and money for everyone concerned.

Just go to your local post office in the morning, its mostly 25-30 year old females with 3 or 4 packets all to be returned. I used to go to the post office nearly every day (business banking) and it was crazy to see it like that every day.

My sister does this. Every time I see her she is taking stuff back. Problem is, is that the easier ASOS make it the more she is likely to buy a shed load of clothes, keep one and return all the others.

I do this. In fact, I've just done it again today. I'm an odd size so it's hard to gauge wether I will be a medium or large. So I will always order both and just send back what I don't need. Some of the brands and shops I shop with do charge a returns fee but it's normally always worth the cost to ensure I'm not stuck with something I can't wear. You might think, just go to a shop but honestly, some of the stuff I buy can only be bought online or from tiny little stores that I guarantee won't have my size when I get there.

END for example is free postage and free returns. Mr Porter is even better as when you organise the FREE return on their site you can also book DHL to come collect so I don't even need to leave the house!

[akirk]

As mentioned above - we do need to be careful about what we read and the conclusion we draw from it...

current Telegraph headline said:

Pound to surge as bankers admit they were ‘wrong’ on UK economy
Experts at Citi tear up forecast for sterling to hit parity with dollar

So despite all the recent negativity in the media, now the analysts are saying they were wrong / the media was wrong and in fact Citi is predicting that Sterling will hit $1.30 by 2024 and

TheTelegraph said:

“The UK’s terms of trade have rebounded since August and, in turn, the magnitude of the likely real income squeeze has diminished meaningfully. At the same time, the housing market is showing tentative signs of stabilising.”

It is important to see beyond the media stories to what is actually happening and take the headlines with a pinch of salt

[DSLiverpool]

egor110 said:

ben5575 said:

Just to +1 this post in case you felt it fell on deaf ears. This is a massive growth sector. And such an obvious one when you think about. Like all good ideas.

I can do land, planning, buildings and finance. If anybody on here does logistics dm me and this time next year we’ll be millionaires

Which companies have shares in this sector?

Clipper was pretty chunky - acquired last year
https://capital.com/amp/clipper-logistics-sees-rev...

[skwdenyer]

President Merkin said:

3PL is big business, really big business. If you want shares in it, then WIncanton, XPO, DX, GXO just off the top of my head. 4PL is where the action is at. 3PL with none of the overhead and all of the cost saving. Willing to take enquiries any time

Edited by President Merkin on Tuesday 9th May 10:24

As the old joke goes, in a gold rush the only man guaranteed to make money is the man selling shovels

I'm not doubting that 3PL / 4PL is a gold rush right now. I'm simply suggesting that it may turn out to be primarily a gold rush for the operators, not the customers, as per the anecdote. It is a bit like sale-and-leaseback - looks attractive at first, but the long tail of lease payments can kick you in the arse.

Given this thread isn't all about ecom, I agree it is good news for the sector (although I'd have to say from what I hear on the ground about at least one of the operators you mention, all may not be as rosey in the garden as many think).

I love that 3PL exists. It provides an easy route for many operators who want to get going (and it isn't new, of course, just getting attention right now). But a bit like AWS in the IT world, just because it exists and is convenient doesn't mean it is a great choice for actually making money

[President Merkin]

Well 3PL is a choice. Any company requiring logistics at scale either invests in it or buys it in. It really isn't anything new, I began my career shovelling pallets about at a 3PL which was bought & sold a number of times, ultimately being folded into XPO via Norbert Dentressangle on behalf of a supermarket in 1993. Our throughput at the site I worked at was in the region of 2-6000 pallets per day, depending in the time of year. That's big business by any metric.

These things move in and out of fashion. Tesco at one point had over 50% of all their distribution in the hands of Stobart but rowed back from that in the past few years, conversely Sainsbury have recenty outsourced 7000 jobs to a mix of DHL, Wincanton & GXO. 3PL is a permanent fixture in manufacturing & retail.

Perversely, they're often not all that great as operators. A customer of mine went to Diageo where at the time EMEA was under DHL. Still is for all I know. His observation was at that level, there are really only a handful of companies with sufficient scale to cope & so the biggest ops effectively run as oligopolies, one downside of which is the incentive to stay sharp, innovate, generally act as a nimble, entreprenurial entity is dulled, since the work is always tied up long term & in any event passed around between a handful of big outifts, the directors of which move between each other. I suppose you could say that about lots of sectors but it got on my wick when I was lobbying for a start shifting the vodka around which never came.

As for operators in trouble, I'm guessing you're referring either to Wincanton who lost an MoD contract to Sodexho or DX who are embroiled in an industrial espionage row. Both will come out ok from their troubles.

Edited by President Merkin on Wednesday 10th May 11:14

[Digga]

President Merkin said:

Well 3PL is a choice. Any company requiring logistics at scale either invests in it or buys it in. It really isn't anything new, I began my career shovelling pallets about at a 3PL which was bought & sold a number of times, ultimately being folded into XPO via Norbert Dentressangle on behalf of a supermarket in 1993. Our throughput at the site I worked at was in the region of 2-6000 pallets per day, depending in the time of year. That's big business by any metric.

These things move in and out of fashion. Tesco at one point had over 50% of all their distribution in the hands of Stobart but rowed back from that in the past few years, conversely Sainsbury have recenty outsourced 7000 jobs to a mix of DHL, Wincanton & GXO. 3PL is a permanent fixture in manufacturing & retail.

Perversely, they're often not all that great as operators. A customer of mine went to Diageo where at the time EMEA was under DHL. Still is for all I know. His observation was at that level, there are really only a handful of companies with sufficient scale to cope & so the biggest ops effectively run as oligopolies, one downside of which is the incentive to stay sharp, innovate, generally act as a nimble, entreprenurial entity is dulled, since the work is always tied up long term & in any event passed around between a handful of big outifts, the directors of which move between each other. I suppose you could say that about lots of sectors but it got on my wick when I was lobbying for a start shifting the vodka around which never came.

As for operators in trouble, I'm guessing you're referring either to Wincanton who lost an MoD contract to Sodexho or DX who are embroiled in an industrial espionage row. Both will come out ok from their troubles.

Edited by President Merkin on Wednesday 10th May 11:14

That's also true of UK freight carriers too.

If you look at freight items between the 'nice carton' capabilities of the wider parcel market and the palletised network, there's barely a handful. They run in a similar (customer disservice) way to the big retail banks.

[President Merkin]

Despite being at it for an entire career, I have no idea what any of that means. Sorry.

[clockworks]

Apart from a minor dip for 3 weeks in April, and putting my prices up a bit closer to the trade average, I just keep getting busier and busier. The price increase was partially an attempt to get some refusals. Didn't work.

The 3 week dip was actually welcome, as I've been able to clear some of the backlog. Turnaround time was getting close to 3 months, back down to 8 weeks now. Pre-covid, it was 4 weeks.

My problem now is that I'm getting over-run with longcase (grandfather) clocks, and I can only have 5 on test at any time. Got plenty of space for mantel and wall clocks, but only room for 5 longcase test stands. 3 years ago, I only needed 2 test stands.