Gone very quiet
Discussion
Phooey said:
Online retail is very quiet atm - never known it so quiet for so long. Out of town stuff like garden centres still seem busy though. A chap I was speaking too was saying industrial units for the first time in the past decade are becoming difficult to re-let.
I would be amazed if the UK doesn't go back into recession in the next 12 months.
We're already in recession in a meaningful sense, if not a technical one.I would be amazed if the UK doesn't go back into recession in the next 12 months.
Around here (Yorkshire Dales), there's a whole new development of units at just over £6 psf pa that have been empty for over a year now. Near where my building in East London is, there are units that have been empty and to let for similar periods of longer.
Bit of an eye-opening development.
Container shipping rates (Shanghai-Felixstowe) have just ratcheted up to $8000.
They were around $1500 throughout 2023 until Christmas when the Red Sea Crisis saw rates move up to $3500.
Had a few quotes in last week for $5500 but they have jumped again.
This won't be short-term, it's been engineered by the carriers.
The busy pre-Christmas surge is beginning soon and the piper wants paying.
Container shipping rates (Shanghai-Felixstowe) have just ratcheted up to $8000.
They were around $1500 throughout 2023 until Christmas when the Red Sea Crisis saw rates move up to $3500.
Had a few quotes in last week for $5500 but they have jumped again.
This won't be short-term, it's been engineered by the carriers.
The busy pre-Christmas surge is beginning soon and the piper wants paying.
Dave_V6 said:
Mr Whippy said:
I think apple are the only hold out for now. I wish they’d launch a search engine and a £5pcm sub for Apple Private or something, and act like a black-hole for all this web-spying and adverts.
Google pay Apple billions a year to be the default on iPhones.Do not under estimate what impact Google's latest updates will have on the wider economy.
Honestly if they carry on the web will just die (well, be the sane old s
t at the top so as good as dead).Back OT, I'm noticing massive tail off's at month end.
Worrying.
But a little on topic isn’t it, all this talk of web-optimisation and paying high costs to just do business now.
I appreciate it’s no different to paying for the high street visibility in bricks and mortar, but that all fed into the local hierarchy of businesses/councils/workers, and drive the local economy.
Today Google, Amazon etc just hoover all that money into far away lands.
As bricks and mortar continues to decline it’ll be harder and harder for businesses I think, as Google just take more and more share.
On business, I’ve got three clients jobs on right now so I’m “busy” for me.
Trying to use AI for one graphics project but that’s not gone as well as hoped. Not quite a revolution yet.
I don’t know how any of you in retail compete against Amazon.
My mum is nearly 80 and worships at the alter of Jeff.
Prime,next day,free pick up and returns by Royal Mail.
She buys everything except food from Amazon. The way she has adapted to the internet is both impressive and depressing in equal measure.
My mum is nearly 80 and worships at the alter of Jeff.
Prime,next day,free pick up and returns by Royal Mail.
She buys everything except food from Amazon. The way she has adapted to the internet is both impressive and depressing in equal measure.
GardeningEcomm said:
Bit of an eye-opening development.
Container shipping rates (Shanghai-Felixstowe) have just ratcheted up to $8000.
They were around $1500 throughout 2023 until Christmas when the Red Sea Crisis saw rates move up to $3500.
Had a few quotes in last week for $5500 but they have jumped again.
This won't be short-term, it's been engineered by the carriers.
The busy pre-Christmas surge is beginning soon and the piper wants paying.
Newer, cleaner, more efficient ships cost moeny. Plus, IMHO, neither air nor sea travel or frieght are yet being taxed at their true rate of pollution.Container shipping rates (Shanghai-Felixstowe) have just ratcheted up to $8000.
They were around $1500 throughout 2023 until Christmas when the Red Sea Crisis saw rates move up to $3500.
Had a few quotes in last week for $5500 but they have jumped again.
This won't be short-term, it's been engineered by the carriers.
The busy pre-Christmas surge is beginning soon and the piper wants paying.
Volumes from China to the developed, Western economies, because of the pandemic, because of tacit support for Russia, aggression to Taiwan, the Chinese leaderships inability to read the room and play the game etc. will never return to the giddy heights of the 2010-20 era.
Phooey said:
Online retail is very quiet atm - never known it so quiet for so long. Out of town stuff like garden centres still seem busy though. A chap I was speaking too was saying industrial units for the first time in the past decade are becoming difficult to re-let.
I would be amazed if the UK doesn't go back into recession in the next 12 months.
Bricks and mortar retail isn't much better. We've had some really good days and some really bad days - they come in clusters. Half 2 on Friday and having had no customers at all yesterday we're so far on a zero again today. We've had perhaps half a dozen completely dead days in 6 months - so they're unusual. Two back to back? Bloody hell.I would be amazed if the UK doesn't go back into recession in the next 12 months.
I read an awful lot of pain from other bricks and mortar businesses - retail like us, hospitality, specialist etc - and all I can think is that at least we don't have any fixed overheads like practically everyone else does. We own the building so no rent, we have a building share with my consulting business which has the utility contracts it its P&L.
Its crazy listening to the government trying to sell that the economy is picking up. No, it really isn't. Always been a disconnect between the paper economy and the real economy, and this time the disconnect feels pretty large. That they lie about it as well just beggars belief.
Has lunch with a friend who runs a substantial b2b business dealing with 14,000+ uk businesses across most sectors. Everything is quieter so far this year, and getting quieter each month. I suspect Rishi has gone early on the GE because advisors know theres plenty of bad economic news waiting in the wings for later in the year.
We’ve some rented housing businesses. The quality and volume of applicants is worse than at any time during the past twenty-five years, despite the papers saying that tenants are knifing each other to get places.
Also we have WAY more African and Pakistani / Indian applicants than ever before.
Eastern European applicants have wained steadily since Brexit, which is a shame because they were excellent tenants.
Also we have WAY more African and Pakistani / Indian applicants than ever before.
Eastern European applicants have wained steadily since Brexit, which is a shame because they were excellent tenants.
Louis Balfour said:
We’ve some rented housing businesses. The quality and volume of applicants is worse than at any time during the past twenty-five years, despite the papers saying that tenants are knifing each other to get places.
Also we have WAY more African and Pakistani / Indian applicants than ever before.
Eastern European applicants have wained steadily since Brexit, which is a shame because they were excellent tenants.
This mirrors the changing immigrant demographic.Also we have WAY more African and Pakistani / Indian applicants than ever before.
Eastern European applicants have wained steadily since Brexit, which is a shame because they were excellent tenants.
M1AGM said:
I suspect Rishi has gone early on the GE because advisors know theres plenty of bad economic news waiting in the wings for later in the year.
I'm certainly not hearing of as many positive vibes as I used to. Local estate agent says stuff between 600k and 1.25m is "hard to sell". Although at the very upper end (£3m) where buyers usually don't need mortgages - the market is good and selling off-market. Quite a few of the industrial units around here are becoming, and staying empty (I've never seen this before on 500sq/ft to 1500sq/ft units). *Local tradesmen are still busy though. I'm in regular contact with an architect atm and he is very busy with new business, so it's definitely hit and miss. I really don't think or feel the economy is turning a positive corner and I am expecting a proper recession at some point very soon.
- eta - we have planning in for an extension and a few other bits and bobs and I have had at least 5 or 6 'introduction' letters from building companies offering their services. Mmmmm. So what is it... busy and can't get building companies for love nor money... or are they now starting to run out of work and needing to go knocking on doors?
Edited by Phooey on Friday 24th May 18:25
Phooey said:
- eta - we have planning in for an extension and a few other bits and bobs and I have had at least 5 or 6 'introduction' letters from building companies offering their services. Mmmmm. So what is it... busy and can't get building companies for love nor money... or are they now starting to run out of work and needing to go knocking on doors?
Our architect even then said he was doing a lot of work but not much was going ahead, and I’m aware of two immediate neighbours who shelved plans after getting quotes. So I guess there’s likely to still be a lot of pent up demand.
Sheepshanks said:
We got PP back end of ‘21 so things were really getting going with the COVID boom and we must have had 30 letters from localish firms - the thing that surprised me is we live in a semi-rural area and I thought I knew most of the local firms but I only got one contact from a firm I’d heard of before. None of the popular local builders wrote.
Our architect even then said he was doing a lot of work but not much was going ahead, and I’m aware of two immediate neighbours who shelved plans after getting quotes. So I guess there’s likely to still be a lot of pent up demand.
Are you saying that builders contacted you for the work after seeing your PP granted in the local rag or wherever?Our architect even then said he was doing a lot of work but not much was going ahead, and I’m aware of two immediate neighbours who shelved plans after getting quotes. So I guess there’s likely to still be a lot of pent up demand.
Jordie Barretts sock said:
Getting lots of offers from IHG/Hilton/Bonvoy Marriot for points/cheap stays.
Would seem they are beginning to feel the pinch a bit. When we were in the Midlands recently, it was a lot quieter in the curry house and hotel than I would expect for a Friday night.
In my sample of one, I've noticed that I'm getting much cheaper rates to stay at the Hilton near my business these days. Booking the day before, or same day sometimes, I'm getting a similar rate as if I'd booked weeks in advance. Normally pay nearly double for a a short notice vs an advance booking.Would seem they are beginning to feel the pinch a bit. When we were in the Midlands recently, it was a lot quieter in the curry house and hotel than I would expect for a Friday night.
Business wise - we're flat out but my clients are generally insulated from economic shocks.
r3g said:
Are you saying that builders contacted you for the work after seeing your PP granted in the local rag or wherever?
I guess they monitor planning applications either online or maybe someone circulates a list of them - it’s very routine to get these mailshots, I was mainly surprised by how many builders there are around us.skwdenyer said:
Around here (Yorkshire Dales), there's a whole new development of units at just over £6 psf pa that have been empty for over a year now. Near where my building in East London is, there are units that have been empty and to let for similar periods of longer.
I picked up in this in my area- West Mids the other day. It used to be impossible to get them.IMHO, as much as I firmly believe this recession is a hangover from the 18 month, money printing party that was the mismanaged pandemic, and also that rates were too low for too long, rates are now too high.
A much of the inflation we’ve seen this year is really just wages adjusting to previous inflation and (idiotically badly timed) new minimum wage legislation. The UK will stagnate for the rest of the year without rate decreases and I think this I acknowledged by the early election call.
A much of the inflation we’ve seen this year is really just wages adjusting to previous inflation and (idiotically badly timed) new minimum wage legislation. The UK will stagnate for the rest of the year without rate decreases and I think this I acknowledged by the early election call.
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