Ferrari 458 Speciale Market (from 10 to 25)

Ferrari 458 Speciale Market (from 10 to 25)

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Discussion

PaulCar1

Original Poster:

18 posts

18 months

Friday 9th February
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Hi,

I’ve been watching the Speciale market a lot over the last 4 years, as I continue to try and put myself in a position to buy one.

One thing I have noticed is that the Speciale is one of very few cars that has not had a correction since the pandemic market hype and activity… however there are now twice as many cars on the market.

- Pre-pandemic: circa 10 cars up for sale… £280k on average
- ?Pandemic: same amount, 10… but looking for £350k
- ?Now: 25+ Speciale’s up… and the price is still £350k

One obvious answer is that the car will always continue to appreciate as it is becoming more and more desirable as a collectors car, hence it hasn’t dropped in value after the pandemic hype, but surprised to see that there is now more than twice as many on the market.

I’ve been looking at the car below on CC, and based on early bids, it is likely to go above £300k and on passed my budget.

I know the price ‘right’ price is always what someone is willing to pay for a car… however what are other people’s thoughts in terms of what the ‘right’ prices is for this car, in terms of it being good value?

https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2014-ferrari-4...

Gibbo205

3,572 posts

215 months

Friday 9th February
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It is peak modern Ferrari and I see them doing the F40 thing in years to come.

I'd take a 458 over a 488 and a Speciale over a Pista and the prices agree with me, plenty of Pista's around and no doubt deals to be done around 250k.

If Speciales ever drop back to a 250-300k range for a RHD in good spec, buy one as I will most certainly aim to do so as well.

garystoybox

813 posts

125 months

Friday 9th February
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Gibbo205 said:
It is peak modern Ferrari and I see them doing the F40 thing in years to come.

I'd take a 458 over a 488 and a Speciale over a Pista and the prices agree with me, plenty of Pista's around and no doubt deals to be done around 250k.

If Speciales ever drop back to a 250-300k range for a RHD in good spec, buy one as I will most certainly aim to do so as well.
Three problems for values imo: Firstly is that there are too many of them to become ultra collectible… think c3,000 globally and likely c10% to the uk. Secondly, they are so mileage sensitive you can’t actually enjoy driving them. Thirdly, there are too many of them on the market and they aren’t selling. The truly appreciating cars are the ones with demand outstripping supply. As with any asset class it’s the buyers that set the price not the sellers.

Obviously disregard all of the above if you simply want to buy, use and keep for a long time without a thought to maintaining its value.

PaulCar1

Original Poster:

18 posts

18 months

Saturday 10th February
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Thank you both.

Yes, I agree. The predicament I am is that my budget is £300k at a stretch, so I need to decide and weigh up, if I need to take the risk and buy on something like CC in order to ever have a chance of owning one, OR will the Speciale market soften.

I understand they will most likely just continue to appreciate, but as pointed out there are so many for sale. It’s not like they are a Carrera GT, etc… so should I wait to see if they come down, or risk never owning one :-)

Fun fact: a relation of mine is looking for a Huracan EVO (coupe)… there are 3 x times more Speciale’s for sale on Pistonheads compared Huracan EVOs… 25 vs 8… which again niggles at me a little and is somewhat telling me to be patient.

Edited by PaulCar1 on Saturday 10th February 00:51

maura

263 posts

31 months

Saturday 10th February
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Paul, know a little bit about this market, had one from new think was 247 invoiced did 4000 miles in it in 1st year and sold to my mate for 240. Have the option to buy it back around 285 with 7000 miles on it now if I pull the trigger. Great cars but to your point, most of those cars are SOR, dealers happy to have them in showroom and up at 330+. I know of a car that was advertised in 330’s, took awhile but sold last month for 310, maybe seasonal but I do believe these are high 280 low 300 cars always with or without mileage. I have never thought that these are 400/500k cars that was widely predicted 18 months back, to me at 285/295 you pull the plug and drive them. 400k buys an amazing 3 car garage, starting with an F12 at 175 and 225 left over. As stated above they delivered 330 to UK, ok a lot might have been exported to Asia these last 9 yrs, but to Gary point, not the rare collectible number, such as 599 GTO F12 TDF Uk numbers to just these high numbers.

Great cars but, buy to drive not store, and certainly don’t go buy one on CC. This sounds a massive purchase for you so don’t even think about the risk. I would pick 5 cars that you like right now that are on SOR in the 330 range and go offer 295 on all of them to their faces not email phone or online. Wait some time and I’m pretty sure you will deal on one for the number you want.
Lovely problem to have, enjoy the trip.

willy wombat

971 posts

156 months

Saturday 10th February
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I agree that as this seems a really big purchase for you, you really should be buying from a main dealer or recognised specialist. I’m sure there’s a logical reason but why would the seller have had the car serviced at a main dealer this month and not got it MOT’d at the same time (given it needs one)?

phil bird

211 posts

143 months

Saturday 10th February
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Hi Paul have you ever driven or considered the 430 scuderia much lower numbers in the uk only 3 for sale!

PaulCar1

Original Poster:

18 posts

18 months

Sunday 11th February
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Thank you Maura, Willy, and Phil.

Wise words Maura, and agree with all that you said.

The car on CC is my absolute ideal spec... literally if I could order one from new, that's what I would go for (exterior and interior)... plus it has the right amount of miles for me. I plan on driving the car a lot, so I don't want to overpay for a low 2,000 mileage car, that will be a medium mileage car after I own it for 12 months.

Phil, I love the 430 Scuderia, and it is also on the list... but the Speciale is just a car I've obsessed over, ever since it came out. I think the 458 itself is one of the best designed (aesthetically) Ferrari's.

Lastly, make a guess... what will it go for? :-)

Recent CC Speciale Cars:
- Jan 2024: 2015 | White | 6,700 miles: £287k
- Oct 2023: 2014 | White | 8,200 miles: £287k

... and going back to 2020: 3 x Speciale's sold for on average £220k each

I'm guessing £292k... and at that I won't be bidding, as would rather take a look at several cars from main dealers, and make an offer.

Ray_MV

60 posts

185 months

Sunday 11th February
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OP, I totally agree with Maura - the market is flooded with SOR cars. If they don’t hit a bid at those elevated prices it’s still free storage!

I am in the market but none currently to my spec taste but when one does I will be following Maura’s approach.

I would also speak to some ex-main dealer independents like Bell Sport, TWG, Forza Clienti etc as they may have clients interested to sell without the costs/hassle of SOR/advertising etc.

Edited by Ray_MV on Sunday 11th February 09:53

maura

263 posts

31 months

Sunday 11th February
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Damn, that White Jan 2024 CC car is now up for sale at Ferrari Birmingham for £349!! Really surprised Main Dealers are buying stock from CC… not sure that’s a good look tbh. Or maybe they had to to keep the inflated prices up..

https://www.sytner.co.uk/vehicle-details/5df7facd-...

maura

263 posts

31 months

Sunday 11th February
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Also begs the question what was the car doing on CC in the first place. Surely the guy took it to a Ferrari dealer to get a bid, and knowing what they like to make which is more than covered handsomely in that £349, why didn’t he sell, or they bid CC money or SOR only? If they bid CC money then you have your answer to the price to pay for one and how the market is manipulated.

Ray_MV

60 posts

185 months

Sunday 11th February
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I also just checked the current one on CC. No lift, No PPF, damage to the NART stripe paintwork and missed its 2023 service. For me that’s a total avoid.

PaulCar1

Original Poster:

18 posts

18 months

Sunday 11th February
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Thanks all.

Bidding is very strong on the car, especially when there is 7 days left.

mirsgarage

263 posts

27 months

Sunday 11th February
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Going to throw in a very contraversial opinion here - but I think Speciale's are a touch hyped and potential for appreciation is relatively limited.

To be clear, it's not that I don't think they will appreciate, they are fantastic machines. They probably will, but I don't think by a great deal more than where they're at right now. I see these low-mileage, uber pristine cars going to £400k-ish in the next 10 years, sure.

But they built a lot of them. They aren't really limited in any which way. The engine's entire USP at this point is "last N/A V8", I mean you hardly hear people talking about them in any other light. It's a great motor, but the whole N/A thing is a little lost on me because it doesn't.. actually sound that great? The Italia sounds better, the Scud sounds miles better.. so that leaves the Speciale in a bit of a weird place for me. NA motor without the goodness of beautiful sound. Loud, NA sound, yeah - but beautiful? Not entirely sure.

So, you throw all that together with a car that is already sort of sitting at £300k+ asking and not moving, loads on the market, and on top of that - the absolute struggle you have with actually driving the thing given the bottom falls out rather quickly - it's just not in a particularly great place. So a car they built a fair few of, priced high at the moment, that you can't drive for fear of massive value loss.. just doesn't quite make sense for me.

That is, unless you can get in one for £260-275k. Then, you're in a good place. So I'd look for that or wait for it to happen. Probably a touch safer that way.

Pistas are doing the same - probably £250k-270k cars at the moment. Dealers are just a little more realistic about them - less so on Speciales, I guess. Opted for a Pista in the end, but I was the biggest Speciale fanboy for a long time. Considering the above changed my mind.


7GJR

199 posts

105 months

Monday 12th February
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I don't disagree with the foregoing opinion. Challange Stradales have done little in terms of appreciation, and they're 20 years old now. Scuderias are the same. I appreciate the argument re. the robotised manual and how the Speciale has the gearbox that allows the car to really be driven, but in reality - that's probably reflected in the fact they are still above their original sale price.

I can see more of an argument for Speciale Apertas, but they're already up in the stratosphere so how much higher can they go, realistically?

teapea

693 posts

194 months

Monday 12th February
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I am also considering bidding on this car, but there is no PPF on the front, and damage to the stripe isn't ideal.
I have been informed that it's around £25k to get the stripe repainted by Ferrari, which seems mad.

But it's a lovely car in a great spec.
I had the opportunity to buy one a few years ago when they were £270-300k.
However, I opted not to and have regretted it since!!

maura

263 posts

31 months

Monday 12th February
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Yes, non PPF striped cars can be an expensive pain. £25k seems inflation busting ridiculous, but my brother was quoted £8k from HR Owen to repaint because of a chip right in the middle of a 2 colour stripe on a Pista he was looking at. That was 2020. It’s something to bear in mind when buying, wouldn’t consider a striped Speciale or Pista without PPF or deducting the cost of £7k for full PPF.

PaulCar1

Original Poster:

18 posts

18 months

Tuesday 13th February
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Thanks all.

I made two enquires about 2 cars yesterday that have been advertised for some time, both between £350k and £360k.

I explained my view on the market and that I believed the market was overpriced… long story short… I said my budget was £300k and that I was waiting for the market to hopefully come back down… I had a call back in 2 hours saying the owner of the £360k car would be open to £310k… thanks Maura for the nudge on this.

When I now compare this to the CC car… the CC car is looking very expensive, as it is at £285k (inc CC fees) already, with:
- No PPF
- No lift
- Missed service
- Discrepancy on the log book / owner
- The same car was advertised with Philip Ireland for a year, and was removed 2 months ago, and is now on CC

Can someone provide some insight into this, as I am relatively new to CC… what is a general reason for advertising a car at £350k for a year, taking it down, and then advertising it on CC… would it not be better to drop the price to £325k and walk away with £320k instead of risking a sale on CC? I genuinely don’t want to speak negative towards the car or owner, as I’m sure it’s fine, but the buyer owns all the risk on CC, and I feel something is not adding up, and it seems other bidders are struggling to get information from the buyer. If someone buys a Speciale, surely they know their car inside out and don’t have to go off and check if their own Speciale has PPF or not?

All of the above, make the car and risk far too expensive now…

GT3Manthey

4,738 posts

57 months

Tuesday 13th February
quotequote all
PaulCar1 said:
Thanks all.

I made two enquires about 2 cars yesterday that have been advertised for some time, both between £350k and £360k.

I explained my view on the market and that I believed the market was overpriced… long story short… I said my budget was £300k and that I was waiting for the market to hopefully come back down… I had a call back in 2 hours saying the owner of the £360k car would be open to £310k… thanks Maura for the nudge on this.

When I now compare this to the CC car… the CC car is looking very expensive, as it is at £285k (inc CC fees) already, with:
- No PPF
- No lift
- Missed service
- Discrepancy on the log book / owner
- The same car was advertised with Philip Ireland for a year, and was removed 2 months ago, and is now on CC

Can someone provide some insight into this, as I am relatively new to CC… what is a general reason for advertising a car at £350k for a year, taking it down, and then advertising it on CC… would it not be better to drop the price to £325k and walk away with £320k instead of risking a sale on CC? I genuinely don’t want to speak negative towards the car or owner, as I’m sure it’s fine, but the buyer owns all the risk on CC, and I feel something is not adding up, and it seems other bidders are struggling to get information from the buyer. If someone buys a Speciale, surely they know their car inside out and don’t have to go off and check if their own Speciale has PPF or not?

All of the above, make the car and risk far too expensive now…
Hi Paul sounds like your search is going well .

May I ask what car at 360k it was that would deal at 310? Guessing red car with low miles ?



Edited by GT3Manthey on Tuesday 13th February 06:33

teapea

693 posts

194 months

Tuesday 13th February
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That's interesting; I guess it is often the case with SOR cars.
I've sold many cars SOR, and you tend to just get to the point where you take an offer as otherwise it'll be just sat there forever potentially.
Especially in a depreciating market, it can be best to cut your losses.

The car on CC whatever it sells for will help potentially soften the market as gives you something more to say they've dropped.

I think they'll go back up again eventually, but it could be a few years.