Grassing up a Covid **** taker.

[Killboy]

Phil. said:

Pleased to hear that you are getting on board with the facts and the truth

BTW it’s not for me. I am predicting/hoping for fewer deaths whereas you guys are predicting......

What? Is your argument now that you are hoping for fewer deaths, and that's somehow more noble? Lol.

You've spouted such nonsense, constantly changing "what's important" and try cover it in scientific "fact" linking to whatever twitter support you can - your bluff has been called. Now you are trying to hide behind overall deaths being the same as if that's somehow what you meant?

So, lets keep going.

[Phil.]

Killboy said:

What? Is your argument now that you are hoping for fewer deaths, and that's somehow more noble? Lol.

You've spouted such nonsense, constantly changing "what's important" and try cover it in scientific "fact" linking to whatever twitter support you can - your bluff has been called. Now you are trying to hide behind overall deaths being the same as if that's somehow what you meant?

So, lets keep going.

I’ve been consistent throughout, it seems to be your understanding and memory that are failing. To help you (take the piss even more) here is a summary of my beliefs. Feel free to find the odd out of context quote from anything I have written in this thread to demonstrate a single inconsistency (which I know you will spend sometime doing now)

- The pandemic is over it’s now a hype about cases that are being measured using a very inaccurate testing PCR system
- Deaths are not increasing at the rate they did in March or in line with the rate of case increases, meaning it’s a casedemic we are reacting now not a continuing pandemic
- Deaths will not increase significantly and will reduce by the end of the year.
- Lockdowns at best only delay the inevitable and are very poor at slowing the spread of the virus (the WHO state this too and advise lockdowns are not implemented for the situation we are facing)
- The current lockdowns are costing more in the following than the benefits they are providing:
— massively increasing deaths from late diagnosis and lack of treatments for cancer, strokes, cardio etc.
— massively increasing poor mental health
— destroying the economy and building up debts at a rate of more than £1bn per day
- The lockdown rules are inconsistent and unfair e.g. gyms are open in Tier 3 Lancashire but are closed in Tier 3 Liverpool. It’s madness.
- Sensible virus transmission measures should be implemented (social distancing, hand washing etc. as we do for flu) and we should all take sensible measures to protect the vulnerable, which would cost a lot less to implement than what we are presently spending on lockdowns
- People should be allowed to choose how much they want to be protected. Many old people are fed up of being isolated and want to get on with the rest of their lives, before it’s too late
- People’s liberties should not be constrained to the magnitude they are being presently e.g. travel restrictions. Today the Welsh leader is telling his people what they can and can’t buy from a supermarket! How far will our leaders go to control us?
- The government is corrupt and a set of liars
- Obviously we can’t finish without, why are they doing this?

Have I missed any of the main points of my contribution to this COVID related discussion?

Would you like to summarise your beliefs? Thought not cos’ it’s easier to just take the piss out of someone else PH style

[Phil.]

• BREAKING NEWS*** For the 2nd/3rd month in a row, in Sept, COVID-19, "the single biggest crisis the world has faced" in Bojo's lifetime, did not feature in the top 10 leading causes of death in England (19th), and Wales (24th). Flu/pneumonia ranked 7th and 6th respectively.

https://twitter.com/realjoelsmalley/status/1319564...

[Killboy]

Phil. said:

I’ve been consistent throughout, it seems to be your understanding and memory that are failing. To help you (take the piss even more) here is a summary of my beliefs. Feel free to find the odd out of context quote from anything I have written in this thread to demonstrate a single inconsistency (which I know you will spend sometime doing now)

- The pandemic is over it’s now a hype about cases that are being measured using a very inaccurate testing PCR system
- Deaths are not increasing at the rate they did in March or in line with the rate of case increases, meaning it’s a casedemic we are reacting now not a continuing pandemic
- Deaths will not increase significantly and will reduce by the end of the year.

The virus hasn't gone anywhere. There was near nothing in Jan, and look what happened in April. Now we have thousands of affected people, why has it suddenly become less deadly? Yeah I'm sure there are some advancements and preparations, but until there is a vaccine there are hundreds of thousands more people it can still kill.

Anyways, this is what I've challenged. You've made your claims, we are tracking them.

Phil. said:

- Lockdowns at best only delay the inevitable and are very poor at slowing the spread of the virus (the WHO state this too and advise lockdowns are not implemented for the situation we are facing)
- The current lockdowns are costing more in the following than the benefits they are providing:
— massively increasing deaths from late diagnosis and lack of treatments for cancer, strokes, cardio etc.
— massively increasing poor mental health
— destroying the economy and building up debts at a rate of more than £1bn per day
- The lockdown rules are inconsistent and unfair e.g. gyms are open in Tier 3 Lancashire but are closed in Tier 3 Liverpool. It’s madness.
- Sensible virus transmission measures should be implemented (social distancing, hand washing etc. as we do for flu) and we should all take sensible

Agreed (mostly)

Phil. said:

measures to protect the vulnerable, which would cost a lot less to implement than what we are presently spending on lockdowns
- People should be allowed to choose how much they want to be protected. Many old people are fed up of being isolated and want to get on with the rest of their lives, before it’s too late
- People’s liberties should not be constrained to the magnitude they are being presently e.g. travel restrictions. Today the Welsh leader is telling his people what they can and can’t buy from a supermarket! How far will our leaders go to control us?

I'm torn on this. Just how do you protect the vulnerable from an invisible virus fairly? I'm not sure its possible? Restrictions were removed, I thought people were largely sensible, but infections and deaths rates are rising (I know you dont believe it, but the graphs are there). I've asked what Sweden has done differently - apparently just sent the kids to school. Maybe the Swedish are smarter than us? (Or they have more capacity, and are way thinner than the average brit).

Phil. said:

- The government is corrupt and a set of liars

Obviously.

[otolith]

Lockdowns do not cause "massively increasing deaths from late diagnosis and lack of treatments for cancer, strokes, cardio etc". Uncontrolled covid causes that.

Oh look.

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7467201

[Jasandjules]

https://scontent.fltn2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/12...

[Phil.]

otolith said:

Lockdowns do not cause "massively increasing deaths from late diagnosis and lack of treatments for cancer, strokes, cardio etc". Uncontrolled covid causes that.

Oh look.

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7467201

Lockdowns only serve to exacerbate the situation and increase the number of non-COVID deaths massively.

[Phil.]

Jasandjules said:

https://scontent.fltn2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/12...

Thought it useful to up load your image as most won't bother clicking the link:

[otolith]

Phil. said:

Lockdowns only serve to exacerbate the situation and increase the number of non-COVID deaths massively.

The mechanism, as I understand it, is that these things happen because;

Treating covid victims takes staff away from other roles
Staff catching covid takes them away from work
Risk of patients catching covid makes treatments which cause immunocompromise too risky for the patient
Risk of staff catching covid makes some procedures too risky for the staff
Some patients are too afraid of catching covid to seek medical attention when they need it

All effects of high covid prevalence in the community. Not effects of lockdown. Causes of lockdown.

If you believe that lockdowns cause "massively increasing deaths from late diagnosis and lack of treatments for cancer, strokes, cardio etc" perhaps you can explain the mechanism by which it does so.

[Tommo87]

Isn't all this willy waving irrelevant anyway?

The OP dobbed in Phil's housemate on page one.

[BrundanBianchi]

Tommo87 said:

Isn't all this willy waving irrelevant anyway?

The OP dobbed in Phil's housemate on page one.

[Phil.]

Killboy said:

Phil. said:

I’ve been consistent throughout, it seems to be your understanding and memory that are failing. To help you (take the piss even more) here is a summary of my beliefs. Feel free to find the odd out of context quote from anything I have written in this thread to demonstrate a single inconsistency (which I know you will spend sometime doing now)

- The pandemic is over it’s now a hype about cases that are being measured using a very inaccurate testing PCR system
- Deaths are not increasing at the rate they did in March or in line with the rate of case increases, meaning it’s a casedemic we are reacting now not a continuing pandemic
- Deaths will not increase significantly and will reduce by the end of the year.

The virus hasn't gone anywhere. There was near nothing in Jan, and look what happened in April. Now we have thousands of affected people, why has it suddenly become less deadly? Yeah I'm sure there are some advancements and preparations, but until there is a vaccine there are hundreds of thousands more people it can still kill.

Anyways, this is what I've challenged. You've made your claims, we are tracking them.

There are many reasons the virus is seemingly less deadly now including:

- During the pandemic in March/April the virus killed a lot of vulnerable people, meaning the overall population is now less vulnerable and there are fewer left who will die from it.
- It has been shown that the virus was active in the UK from November 2019 and by Jan 2020 it was spreading rapidly throughout the population, with peak infections occurring just before the lockdown in March. There were millions of people infected during this time which resulted in the high number of deaths in April. This was the period of the pandemic.
- It is also known now that people with the relevant T-cells already have immunity from the virus and that this is a significant element of the population, and this is another reason for the fall in deaths once the pandemic period in March/April had ended and continues today.
- Over the summer the virus spread fairly freely as pubs and restaurants were open and a lot of people went on holiday in the UK. Deaths still fell though, largely because people's vitamin D levels were higher and more immunity was building.
- Current PCR testing levels are much higher than in March (10x) meaning although the number of new cases reported now is scary they are still a fraction of the actual cases at the peak in March, and there are fewer vulnerable people left for it to kill. Add in the massive inaccuracies (false positives) of the current PCR test and this further reduces the actual number of cases now compared to March.
- The virus is following a normal flu curve, with the peak of its pandemic in March/April when deaths reached 1000 per day to a low now of around 100 per day, which is a relatively low level compared to other types of deaths (1400-1600 per day).
- The recent slight increase in COVID deaths is due to a seasonal factors not the increase in cases purported by the press and government to justify their actions.
- Then there is the from/with debate about actually how many people COVID is killing now and how many are dying from normal causes but were tested at some point previously for COVID. It can be assumed that the number of people being reported as dying from COVID is higher than the actual number.

Killboy said:

Phil. said:

measures to protect the vulnerable, which would cost a lot less to implement than what we are presently spending on lockdowns
- People should be allowed to choose how much they want to be protected. Many old people are fed up of being isolated and want to get on with the rest of their lives, before it’s too late
- People’s liberties should not be constrained to the magnitude they are being presently e.g. travel restrictions. Today the Welsh leader is telling his people what they can and can’t buy from a supermarket! How far will our leaders go to control us?

I'm torn on this. Just how do you protect the vulnerable from an invisible virus fairly? I'm not sure its possible? Restrictions were removed, I thought people were largely sensible, but infections and deaths rates are rising (I know you dont believe it, but the graphs are there). I've asked what Sweden has done differently - apparently just sent the kids to school. Maybe the Swedish are smarter than us? (Or they have more capacity, and are way thinner than the average brit).

There are suggestions from various parties more competent than me about how we might protect the vulnerable but it's not being considered as a serious option by those in power who are presently focussed on lockdowns, so insufficient effort is going in to working how best to implement such a scheme. It's not impossible though and we appear to be better protecting people in care homes than we were but its not infallible and never will be, whatever is put in place.

[Phil.]

otolith said:

Phil. said:

Lockdowns only serve to exacerbate the situation and increase the number of non-COVID deaths massively.

The mechanism, as I understand it, is that these things happen because;

Treating covid victims takes staff away from other roles
Staff catching covid takes them away from work
Risk of patients catching covid makes treatments which cause immunocompromise too risky for the patient
Risk of staff catching covid makes some procedures too risky for the staff
Some patients are too afraid of catching covid to seek medical attention when they need it

All effects of high covid prevalence in the community. Not effects of lockdown. Causes of lockdown.

If you believe that lockdowns cause "massively increasing deaths from late diagnosis and lack of treatments for cancer, strokes, cardio etc" perhaps you can explain the mechanism by which it does so.

I think that much of what you have described is exacerbated during a lockdown because lockdowns legally impose restrictions on people and organisations that affect their behaviour. For example, as a result of the first lockdown GP's stopped meeting patients and used facetime or similar to undertake consultations. This resulted in many late or incorrect diagnosis of other illnesses and the subsequent excess deaths which would not have occurred outside of a lockdown situation. I know this for fact because my next door neighbour, who I had known for 20 years, was late diagnosed with Sepsis and died in May. He had spoken to his doctor on his phone regularly and a couple of days before he was rushed to hospital. His doctor gave him pain killers for backache. He was far too young to die under normal circumstances and would have had a good chance of living had he been diagnosed in time.

Additionally, lockdowns and the associated restrictions create a lot fear in people meaning far fewer would consider consulting a doctor with a new problem during a lockdown than would if the situation was presented in a less threating way. This has been proven because compared to the normal number of people being diagnosed with new illnesses this year the number if far less, thousands less than in a normal year.

[Sticks.]

otolith said:

The mechanism, as I understand it, is that these things happen because;

Treating covid victims takes staff away from other roles
Staff catching covid takes them away from work
Risk of patients catching covid makes treatments which cause immunocompromise too risky for the patient
Risk of staff catching covid makes some procedures too risky for the staff
Some patients are too afraid of catching covid to seek medical attention when they need it

All effects of high covid prevalence in the community. Not effects of lockdown. Causes of lockdown.

If you believe that lockdowns cause "massively increasing deaths from late diagnosis and lack of treatments for cancer, strokes, cardio etc" perhaps you can explain the mechanism by which it does so.

The social and economic cost of lockdown is the elephant in the room, and have been all along. Not just in a headline £billions spent, but the likely levels of unemployment/poverty and their effect on health, and the certain reduction in the NHS's ability to proved services in a timely manner.

I suspect there are arguments around whether local authorities and NHS could have continued to provide some services and remained accessible to patients had not central govt not decreed otherwise.

For example in my area, infection rates last time I checked were 3 in 10k pop and yet GP surgeries are closed to face to face consultations. That's not the virus, but our reaction to it.

A universal system of testing is what's been missing all along.

[otolith]

My partner is a GP. She didn't start doing remote consultations because of lockdown, there was no legal restraint on her patients coming to the surgery to see her, she did it because she didn't fancy dying of Covid.

[BrundanBianchi]

otolith said:

My partner is a GP. She didn't start doing remote consultations because of lockdown, there was no legal restraint on her patients coming to the surgery to see her, she did it because she didn't fancy dying of Covid.

That’s a thing for sure. Self preservation, given the evidence of the effects of viral loading. And fair play to her as well.

[Phil.]

otolith said:

My partner is a GP. She didn't start doing remote consultations because of lockdown, there was no legal restraint on her patients coming to the surgery to see her, she did it because she didn't fancy dying of Covid.

I expect the timing of this change coincided with lockdown as it did in all the GP’s in my area.

[alabbasi]

Snitches get stiches

[Jasandjules]

otolith said:

My partner is a GP. She didn't start doing remote consultations because of lockdown, there was no legal restraint on her patients coming to the surgery to see her, she did it because she didn't fancy dying of Covid.

With respect, has she considered another career path? Her job is to help the sick. She must have understood there would be risks when she took on the job, history is littered with such things, for example cholera and we know that was solved by Jon Snow who it seems did know something, but he put his neck on the line to find out.... . And now we have the advantage of PPE etc. and a lot more information and data.

[Phil.]

My views are completely aligned with the first speaker (John Lee) and his contribution throughout this televised debate.

https://youtu.be/Qgn4B2Iq2cg