which classic car value is/will drop the most

[vpr]

I’d agree with Etype prices softening recently. I think this is typical of any mass produced classic. The cars that will stay strong are the rarities be that in build numbers or provenance

[lowdrag]

classicaholic said:

I was talking to a chap at Goodwood who reckons his E Type he is selling has dropped 18k in a year, almost as much depreciation percentage as a new one did!

I reckon my E-type has lost £50,000 since the beginning of this year.But it wasn't for sale then and isn't now so all it has done is reduce my insurance costs. I really don't give a monkeys as to values since I bought the car over 30 years ago for peanuts and it has never been for sale, including the last boom when it went from £25,000 in 1989 to £75,000 in 1990 and back to £25,000 in 1992. If you are investor, bugger off and leave my hobby to me and my friends and go and play bitcoins or whatever.

ETA And could you explain how an E-type that cost £2,000 in 1961 managed to lose £18,000 in value in one year? The last V12 E-types cost less than £5,000 even in 1974 and because of the fuel crisis most were sold at around £4,000 or less.

Edited by lowdrag on Wednesday 12th September 19:34

[rovermorris999]

lowdrag said:

ETA And could you explain how an E-type that cost £2,000 in 1961 managed to lose £18,000 in value in one year? The last V12 E-types cost less than £5,000 even in 1974 and because of the fuel crisis most were sold at around £4,000 or less.

Edited by lowdrag on Wednesday 12th September 19:34

'I was talking to a chap at Goodwood who reckons his E Type he is selling has dropped 18k in a year, almost as much depreciation percentage as a new one did!'


Percentage, not £sd.

[DonkeyApple]

classicaholic said:

Now JD classics have gone bust will the panic selling set in?
The prices at Anglia auction look a lot lower & some of the values the owners received at Goodwood after almost 40% in costs (buyers premium, sellers commission, Vat, transport, Broshire space, cleaning etc) looked very soft.
H&H estimates are way lower than 12 months ago for their next auction.
I was talking to a chap at Goodwood who reckons his E Type he is selling has dropped 18k in a year, almost as much depreciation percentage as a new one did!

It would be very fair to argue that the JD event is a component in the build up of a tipping point.

We have a few all adding together at the moment.

General global sentiment is weak at present and many people’s focus is being diverted away from buying toys. This hits demand.

Western cash is becoming more valuable and lenders are reducing how much they will lend into this market and demanding higher margins. And there is a huge amount of debt in this market. Huge. This is also inhibiting buyers.

And disputes over fakes, massive corporate players going bust and touting stock out the back door. In a rising market these events get swallowed up. In a slowing or stale market they hit demand.

For speculators and investors to exit and receive more money than they paid requires demand to be growing.

If demand isn’t growing then people will hold back until it is. That is how a hiatus such as the one we are in works. Supply is naturally reduced as demand reduces and prices remain stable.

It’s how long that hiatus lasts which is important as the longer it goes on for the more nervous the chap who is sitting on a fake, a bad car or a pile of debt becomes and they start to rationalise taking a loss and bailing. That’s when supply exceeds demand and prices fall. And as they do, all demand disappears and prices come off hard in search of that demand.

Or you get a black swan event. A big event that no one specifically called. Probably in a completely different part of the market but is causes many of the leveraged speculators to have to cash in to raise funds or rationalise risk or costs.

[CQ8]

[dickyf]

JD haven't gone bust because of the business model.. a pound to a penny the set up will be trading very soon with new unconnected branding.

classicaholic said:

Now JD classics have gone bust will the panic selling set in?
The prices at Anglia auction look a lot lower & some of the values the owners received at Goodwood after almost 40% in costs (buyers premium, sellers commission, Vat, transport, Broshire space, cleaning etc) looked very soft.
H&H estimates are way lower than 12 months ago for their next auction.
I was talking to a chap at Goodwood who reckons his E Type he is selling has dropped 18k in a year, almost as much depreciation percentage as a new one did!

[Perseverant]

I've read comments a few times about how age plays a big part in the classic market. Certainly nostalgia is a major factor for many, but simple interest in machinery is another. I'm lucky enough to have an XK120 ots, which predates me. I was in my teens before I saw one and became more interested - eventually bought from guess who? It is not the most practical car, I'll grant, and was a liability the only time I drove in snow! I'm interested in all sorts of cars and bikes etc, and if I had funds I'd also go for a prewar car. But there is a snag - I've sat in Austins and Morrises of the twenties and I would not be able to drive them safely as they are so tiny, and I'm no giant at a bit under six feet. A Mk.4 Jaguar was also disappointing, but a Rover P4 that I ran for years was supremely comfortable. Getting to the original question, it looks to me that top end cars will retain their value pretty well, but things in the middle are softening a bit - cars that are less than perfect. A surprising thing is how comparatively expensive Fiat 500s and 2CV Citroens remain - one horrible and the other surprisingly practical.