The future of classic cars
Discussion
OldDuffer said:
You wrote: I do think that using ICE cars as DDs will become more and more socially unacceptable.
I doubt that too. There's so few of us using classics daily, it's near unheard of today. Fakers in August yes, but today as I write in Feb, it's non-existent. I must be about the last.
How it becomes socially unacceptable when even less are on our roads, I can't see it.
I am not really thinking of the occasional use true classics, but of the ordinary cars on the road every day. I doubt that too. There's so few of us using classics daily, it's near unheard of today. Fakers in August yes, but today as I write in Feb, it's non-existent. I must be about the last.
How it becomes socially unacceptable when even less are on our roads, I can't see it.
ash73 said:
Autonomous cars are a geek's pipedream; never going to happen (other than motorways).
If petrol becomes unavailable, LPG conversions could be an option to keep classics going.
Electric (or hydrogen) conversions will become more cost effective too.
Where there's a will, there's a way.
I can tell you with absolute certainty that major Japanese manufacturers are planning and scaling for AV's right now, it may come to nothing but it is way more than a geeks pipedream.If petrol becomes unavailable, LPG conversions could be an option to keep classics going.
Electric (or hydrogen) conversions will become more cost effective too.
Where there's a will, there's a way.
The whole leasing car thing only works when there is value in the old stock, for now thats the people who want to own them.
The other thing I'm not convinced about is the amount of resources that go into making a new car, the factory, the metals, the machine. They all come at a cost to the environment. Is it really better consistently replacing with new?
The other thing I'm not convinced about is the amount of resources that go into making a new car, the factory, the metals, the machine. They all come at a cost to the environment. Is it really better consistently replacing with new?
ash73 said:
Autonomous cars are a geek's pipedream; never going to happen (other than motorways)......
Never? - That's an awfully long time! 
10 years ago, the idea of a car that could park itself remotely, without a driver on board seemed like a pipe dream.Today, a BMW i3 can be parked remotely via a watch!
Volvo have even developed a parking system that lets the occupants out, and then goes off on its own, to find a vacant parking space, where it can park itself!: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media...
It's not that long ago that the idea of being able to contact your car via a mobile phone, and have it drive on its own to where you were waiting for it, was sheer science fiction. Today, a Tesla has that function.
Cars that can predict you're about to have a collision, and do an emergency stop all by themselves, without waiting for the driver to brake? - A nonsense 10 years ago, a reality today!
We're in the infancy of the autonomous car, but the baby steps are already being taken, and technology moves on at an incredible rate! (Let's not forget, it's not that long ago that the idea of watching TV and movies on your mobile phone was a pipe dream, and as for using a watch as a communication's device - That was just some fantasy nonsense from "Knight Rider", back in the 80's! [along with self driving cars!] )
And something else to be aware of:
The younger generations are getting less and less interested in driving cars. They can work from home via computer, chat with friends and family via video-links, organise their lives on their mobile phones, summon Uber taxi's and such like to their current position via their phones, etc., etc., etc.
They will be the driving force behind autonomous cars, in which they can just climb in, tell it where to go, and then sit back and organise their lives on their phones/watches (or whatever else the designers and engineers come up with), and be delivered to their destinations.
You say it will never happen? - People used to say that the automobile would never replace the horse! ("The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty.....a fad." - Advice from a president of the Michigan Savings Bank to Henry Ford’s lawyer Horace Rackham)
Made a video on what the 2030 Petrol and Diesel ban means for future of classic cars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vcdv5Ho-hs&t=...
Good to hear your thoughts!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vcdv5Ho-hs&t=...
Good to hear your thoughts!
You are not going to see mass closure of fuel stations until well into 2050s. How many people who go on and on against anything other than ICE will be driving by 2055. I suspect many still be pushing dasies. If your over 40 apart from tolls to get into city centres your probably don’t go to most of the electrification agenda won’t impact you unless you let it
I think politics will come into it!! at the moment we are being lead by the nose by a noisy minority basically the same sort of people who obsessed about nuclear Armageddon in the past , now we are building windmills instead of bunkers , to “save” ourselves from climate change , once Joe public finds how much freedom and standard of living is being lost votes will be cast for fringe parties and like Brexit some balance and democracy will apply ..
ghgunning said:
Made a video on what the 2030 Petrol and Diesel ban means for future of classic cars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vcdv5Ho-hs&t=...
Good to hear your thoughts!
Convince me to watch it. Your title is ridiculous for a start. Clickbait nonsense. Yes, I known that's what YouTubers do, I'm not thick, but really? "What the 2030 Ban Will Mean Will You Still Be Able To Drive Your Classic?"?? As I sad, RIDICULOUS. There is a proposed ban on the sale of NEW ICE vehicles.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vcdv5Ho-hs&t=...
Good to hear your thoughts!
See also:
'Older technologies substantially co-existing with newer technologies include:
Analog watches are still widely used for reasons of fashion and personal preference despite the availability of digital watches which can be made much lighter and with smart watch capabilities.
CDs are still used in addition to MP3 players.
DVDs have not been displaced by Blu-rays
Fireplaces are still used for primary heat in some houses in developed countries, though furnaces, electric heat, and other modern HVAC systems are less polluting, can be better controlled, and can also provide cooling.
Ferry travel has not been completely displaced by bridges and airplanes
Fords are still used for rural roads, though bridges have replaced them for most roads in most developed countries
Hammers have not been displaced by nail guns
Hot water bottles continue to be used along with electric blankets and heating pads.
Landline telephones are still used, despite the advent of mobile phones
Long-distance travel by railroads and highway has to some degree been displaced by airplane, but not entirely - especially in countries adopting high-speed rail
Postal mail continues to be used alongside email, but with substantial decreases in personal correspondence outside of special occasions, due to the availability of text messages and email
Pneumatic tubes for passenger transport have been used in atmospheric railway to provide motive power, like a cable car system. Vactrain systems, where the entire passenger compartment travels through an evacuated tube, never became operational, but are still being investigated for high-speed transport.
Shields co-exist with bulletproof vests, and are used by riot police. Lighter-weight and stronger materials are available compared to ancient wooden and bronze shields, including clear plastic shields and bulletproof shields mounted on firing platforms.
'Older technologies substantially co-existing with newer technologies include:
Analog watches are still widely used for reasons of fashion and personal preference despite the availability of digital watches which can be made much lighter and with smart watch capabilities.
CDs are still used in addition to MP3 players.
DVDs have not been displaced by Blu-rays
Fireplaces are still used for primary heat in some houses in developed countries, though furnaces, electric heat, and other modern HVAC systems are less polluting, can be better controlled, and can also provide cooling.
Ferry travel has not been completely displaced by bridges and airplanes
Fords are still used for rural roads, though bridges have replaced them for most roads in most developed countries
Hammers have not been displaced by nail guns
Hot water bottles continue to be used along with electric blankets and heating pads.
Landline telephones are still used, despite the advent of mobile phones
Long-distance travel by railroads and highway has to some degree been displaced by airplane, but not entirely - especially in countries adopting high-speed rail
Postal mail continues to be used alongside email, but with substantial decreases in personal correspondence outside of special occasions, due to the availability of text messages and email
Pneumatic tubes for passenger transport have been used in atmospheric railway to provide motive power, like a cable car system. Vactrain systems, where the entire passenger compartment travels through an evacuated tube, never became operational, but are still being investigated for high-speed transport.
Shields co-exist with bulletproof vests, and are used by riot police. Lighter-weight and stronger materials are available compared to ancient wooden and bronze shields, including clear plastic shields and bulletproof shields mounted on firing platforms.
Additionally I think that the current model of electric car bears some resemblance to the change in music players in terms of where we are with the tech:
Non catalyst vehicles with carburettors - Vinyl or Cassette - The emotional choice.
Catalyst vehicles with electronic fuel injection - CD Players - The practical sweet spot.
Hybrid - MiniDisk - The technological blind alley.
EV's - iPod Classic - Looked like the answer at the time until newer tech came along.
Whatever comes next - Streaming all unlimited music via your phone - The actual answer we haven't found yet.
Just like music systems there will be massive fans of each format;
The warmth and texture of Vinyl is akin to the experience of a classic car.
The brilliant sound quality of CD which is still unmatched on high end HiFi is akin to the best of the last 30 years of ICE cars, plus it's off line nature makes it very reliable for some applications, just like ICE will continue for some sectors.
Hybrids are the visible effect of trying to push boundaries with existing tech, just like MiniDisc was.
Just like the iPod Classic is still supported by independents because some people need or want to store music off line to access as they want EV's are a partial answer.
The most convenient way to use and store music is by streaming from your phone and or partial storage on your phone.
In the same way that no-one could envisage the 256gb iPhone with almost universal 4G connectivity when the iPod came out I think the same will happen with cars in the next 15 years.
Sorry if this was a tortured analogy.
Non catalyst vehicles with carburettors - Vinyl or Cassette - The emotional choice.
Catalyst vehicles with electronic fuel injection - CD Players - The practical sweet spot.
Hybrid - MiniDisk - The technological blind alley.
EV's - iPod Classic - Looked like the answer at the time until newer tech came along.
Whatever comes next - Streaming all unlimited music via your phone - The actual answer we haven't found yet.
Just like music systems there will be massive fans of each format;
The warmth and texture of Vinyl is akin to the experience of a classic car.
The brilliant sound quality of CD which is still unmatched on high end HiFi is akin to the best of the last 30 years of ICE cars, plus it's off line nature makes it very reliable for some applications, just like ICE will continue for some sectors.
Hybrids are the visible effect of trying to push boundaries with existing tech, just like MiniDisc was.
Just like the iPod Classic is still supported by independents because some people need or want to store music off line to access as they want EV's are a partial answer.
The most convenient way to use and store music is by streaming from your phone and or partial storage on your phone.
In the same way that no-one could envisage the 256gb iPhone with almost universal 4G connectivity when the iPod came out I think the same will happen with cars in the next 15 years.
Sorry if this was a tortured analogy.
Stick Legs said:
Additionally I think that the current model of electric car bears some resemblance to the change in music players in terms of where we are with the tech:
Non catalyst vehicles with carburettors - Vinyl or Cassette - The emotional choice.
Catalyst vehicles with electronic fuel injection - CD Players - The practical sweet spot.
Hybrid - MiniDisk - The technological blind alley.
EV's - iPod Classic - Looked like the answer at the time until newer tech came along.
Whatever comes next - Streaming all unlimited music via your phone - The actual answer we haven't found yet.
Just like music systems there will be massive fans of each format;
The warmth and texture of Vinyl is akin to the experience of a classic car.
The brilliant sound quality of CD which is still unmatched on high end HiFi is akin to the best of the last 30 years of ICE cars, plus it's off line nature makes it very reliable for some applications, just like ICE will continue for some sectors.
Hybrids are the visible effect of trying to push boundaries with existing tech, just like MiniDisc was.
Just like the iPod Classic is still supported by independents because some people need or want to store music off line to access as they want EV's are a partial answer.
The most convenient way to use and store music is by streaming from your phone and or partial storage on your phone.
In the same way that no-one could envisage the 256gb iPhone with almost universal 4G connectivity when the iPod came out I think the same will happen with cars in the next 15 years.
Sorry if this was a tortured analogy.
Except those were all solely driven by advances in technology. Nobody legislated against the continued sale of vinyl records.Non catalyst vehicles with carburettors - Vinyl or Cassette - The emotional choice.
Catalyst vehicles with electronic fuel injection - CD Players - The practical sweet spot.
Hybrid - MiniDisk - The technological blind alley.
EV's - iPod Classic - Looked like the answer at the time until newer tech came along.
Whatever comes next - Streaming all unlimited music via your phone - The actual answer we haven't found yet.
Just like music systems there will be massive fans of each format;
The warmth and texture of Vinyl is akin to the experience of a classic car.
The brilliant sound quality of CD which is still unmatched on high end HiFi is akin to the best of the last 30 years of ICE cars, plus it's off line nature makes it very reliable for some applications, just like ICE will continue for some sectors.
Hybrids are the visible effect of trying to push boundaries with existing tech, just like MiniDisc was.
Just like the iPod Classic is still supported by independents because some people need or want to store music off line to access as they want EV's are a partial answer.
The most convenient way to use and store music is by streaming from your phone and or partial storage on your phone.
In the same way that no-one could envisage the 256gb iPhone with almost universal 4G connectivity when the iPod came out I think the same will happen with cars in the next 15 years.
Sorry if this was a tortured analogy.
Pothole said:
Except those were all solely driven by advances in technology. Nobody legislated against the continued sale of vinyl records.
Admittedly no, however no-one is legislating against the sale of used ICE cars.I doubt they will have to to be honest, but I remember the wailing and gnashing of teeth that Vinyl would be unsupported, "what happens if I need a new needle in 2010?!"
Once 99% of the non-petrolhead public are EV then there few of us left will be left alone by legislators and by the pressure groups.
I know every time this gets raised the great horse manure crisis of 1894 gets cited but it has validity.
For all we know the tech will exist to remove CO2 and from the air and to find an economic benefit to do so. The small number of ICE Cars left will be viewed the way heritage railways are, i.e. not an issue as regards transportation pollution.
There are people out there in the world who still rely on paraffin lamps. An electric option has existed for over a century, and yet it isn't practical for them for various reasons. LPG will always be around for the same reason. How else are you going to cook if you can't have an electrical supply?
I think Petrol will get expensive, but it will always be available to some degree. It will be produced at nowhere near the quantities that exist today, but there will always be oil used for something, and petrol will be a by-product of that. Oil has so many non-fuel uses that can't be replaced by anything else.
Running diesel cars made after 2000 or so is going to be something of a challenge in the far future. You can get an old XUD to run on veg oil, and we're never going to have supply issues with that, but good luck using it on a common rail diesel from today. That's pretty far future though, once all the trucks and boats running diesel commercially are out of service. Diesel will be easy to find until after then.
I think Petrol will get expensive, but it will always be available to some degree. It will be produced at nowhere near the quantities that exist today, but there will always be oil used for something, and petrol will be a by-product of that. Oil has so many non-fuel uses that can't be replaced by anything else.
Running diesel cars made after 2000 or so is going to be something of a challenge in the far future. You can get an old XUD to run on veg oil, and we're never going to have supply issues with that, but good luck using it on a common rail diesel from today. That's pretty far future though, once all the trucks and boats running diesel commercially are out of service. Diesel will be easy to find until after then.
Edited by GearKnob on Sunday 4th July 09:29
MikeT66 said:
Mr Peart (RIP) did enjoy his dystopian visions, I think.
Sadly, I don't think he'll be too far wrong. I can see a (not too distant) future where old ICE-powered cars are pretty much seen as 'socially unacceptable'. If there is going to be a shift change with the next couple of generations I think it will come quickly - partly engineered by those in power (politics) or control the power (business) as rarely do these parties work for the populace.
Let's be honest, the lyrics to 2112 (the storyline of which Ben Elton nicked to write We Will Rock You) have come true in that most modern music is anodyne Simon-Cowell-moulded pap. Sadly, I don't think he'll be too far wrong. I can see a (not too distant) future where old ICE-powered cars are pretty much seen as 'socially unacceptable'. If there is going to be a shift change with the next couple of generations I think it will come quickly - partly engineered by those in power (politics) or control the power (business) as rarely do these parties work for the populace.
I fear that the green eco-weenies will become more vociferous about ICE emissions. Such cars will become seen like steam locomotives - romantic, but filthy in reality.
Lotusgone said:
I fear that the green eco-weenies will become more vociferous about ICE emissions. Such cars will become seen like steam locomotives - romantic, but filthy in reality.
And yet there seems to be no issue from the green lobby about Heritage Railways. It's such a small polluter as a segment that they aren't bothered.Classic cars will be the same. It will become the hobby of those who have the means to store and procure fuel away from the forecourt network.
Either you will have the space to have a fuel tank on your property or more realistically for most you will join a fuel club. There will be a network of fuel clubs around the country and you will use a code to access the site and fill up.
Will you be able to carry with an ICE car as if nothing has happened? NO
Will the XR brigade come storming into the village to take your classic car to the scrap yard? NO
Will you be able to continue to enjoy your classic in a limited way such as day trips and pre-planned journeys? YES
As and example of how we can't predict the future:
There are more Spitfires, Hurricanes and Bf109's flying today than there were at the time of the filming of 'The Battle of Britain'. At the time they struggled to get enough and the fear was in 10 years they will all be gone, which kick started the restoration movement.
The 'Messerschmitts' in the film were Hispano Buchons as there were no airworthy Bf109's.
I'm realistic but positive and think by 2065 there will be the equivalent of the London to Brighton run with E-Types and Ferraris.
Edited by Stick Legs on Sunday 4th July 16:39
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