Climate Change treaty....

Climate Change treaty....

Author
Discussion

Bing o

15,184 posts

220 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
ludo said:
Nuclearsquash said:
that gets us back to the crux of the question is CO2 going to cause any change, i believe not from my limited understanding of the science etc.
My limited understanding of the science tells me to trust the scientists who have a better understanding than I do. The balance of opinion is that it is going to cause a significant change.
My limited understanding of the politics tells me not to trust politicians, or thise who act in their name.

Have we really forgotten the WMD and 45 minutes to attack of a few years ago?

turbobloke

104,131 posts

261 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
ludo said:
My limited understanding of the science tells me to trust the scientists who have a better understanding than I do.
Wow ludo trusts me after all.

baz1985

3,598 posts

246 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
'peer review' is not an infallible reviewing mechanism as there are a plethora of other influential factors particularly with respect to 'funding'.

turbobloke

104,131 posts

261 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
baz1985 said:
'peer review' is not an infallible reviewing mechanism as there are a plethora of other influential factors particularly with respect to 'funding'.
The IPCC commit peer review irregularities, regularly. Only a few posts ago I listed the response of one of its own reviewers to having their comments about an entire IPCC Report chapter being fundamentally flawed, totally ignored.

Convening Lead Authors dismiss dissent and write up their chapters how they like (this from a Lead Author present at meetings that were cut short when the man-made warming pet theory of the CLA came under sustained attack from other IPCC scientists present), an infamous UN-backed statement that the balance of evidence suggests man has definitely had an impact on climate, has had numerous repercussions - newspaper headlines, the UK national curriculum, political careers, and nearly £40 billion per year in ecotaxes on us all have followed as aftershocks to this proclamation - yet the chapter and entire report from which it derives were described by former President of the American Academy of Sciences, Frederick Seitz, as the worst abuse of the peer review process he had seen. Dr Sherwood Idso, then of the Water Conservation Laboratory in Arizona, commented on unauthorised changes made to IPCC global climate reports post-review, up to 16 per document. The IPCC previously assigned the role of convening lead author to Ben Santer — who it is reported based much of his conclusions on two of his own papers that had not yet appeared in peer-reviewed journals, definitely non-standard practice. And finally the coup de grace is that the IPCC formally state in their terms and conditions small print that the use of non-peer reviewed science is IPCC policy anyway.


Back to scientists and journalist-free-zone science.

Research update from the Spencer Christy camp
We have submitted a research paper to the Journal of Climate in which we used a climate model to demonstrate how natural climate variability in temperature and clouds can be mis-diagnosed as positive feedback (cloud changes with warming that are presumed to amplify the warming, an effect which is programmed into all leading computerized climate models). The misdiagnosis occurs because climate modellers usually look at cloud variability as a RESULT of temperature variability, when in fact some of the temperature variability is actually CAUSED by the clouds. We also constrained the model with satellite observations in order to estimate the likely magnitude of this positive feedback bias.

Our peer-reviewed paper showing the natural cooling behavior of tropical cirrus clouds in response to warming was published on August 09 in Geophysical Research Letters. In that paper we describe satellite evidence for a natural cooling mechanism ('negative feedback') that occurs when the tropical atmosphere heats up. This is in contrast to all standard climate models, which have cirrus clouds behaving as a positive feedback, amplifying warming tendencies. In an unusual turn of events, absolutely no reporters contacted us about these important results. It will be interesting to see whether any climate modelers include this effect in their climate models - a change which would likely greatly reduce the amount of global warming those models predict for the future.

A least bad thought about the biased reporting is that the journos didn't want to have their tickets for Bali cancelled

grumbledoak

31,561 posts

234 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
baz1985 said:
'peer review' is not an infallible reviewing mechanism as there are a plethora of other influential factors particularly with respect to 'funding'.
If you are going to slate science, please get it right! wink

Peer review itself is very effective, as any published paper can be read and the experiment repeated by others. A paper on the deficiencies can then be published, and so on. So, the truth comes out in the end.

Editorial bias also exists, where papers with the 'wrong' conclusions cannot get published. But with a large enough selection of publishers, the truth again tends to come out in the end.

The 'funding issue' is more one of controlling who gets the research money in the first place, on the basis of past conclusions that support a desired policy. This can be done by industry, but is also very often the method used by government.

ludo

5,308 posts

205 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
grumbledoak said:
baz1985 said:
'peer review' is not an infallible reviewing mechanism as there are a plethora of other influential factors particularly with respect to 'funding'.
If you are going to slate science, please get it right! wink

Peer review itself is very effective, as any published paper can be read and the experiment repeated by others. A paper on the deficiencies can then be published, and so on. So, the truth comes out in the end.

Editorial bias also exists, where papers with the 'wrong' conclusions cannot get published. But with a large enough selection of publishers, the truth again tends to come out in the end.
Indeed, and as evidence that this is not the case in climatology, the new paper by Douglass, at al. to appear in the International Journal of Climatology (a top journal) claims to show that climate models are unable to reproduce temperature trends in the upper atmosphere (and therefore undermine their use). If the editors wanted to kill this paper it would have been easy as the paper has a fundamental statistical error that completely invalidates their findings (I spotted it on the first reading). There are so many other problems that the reviewers should have picked up that you have to say they recieved a freindly review. As grumbledoak points out, the truth will come out, the reply papers are being written as we speak.

grumbledoak said:
The 'funding issue' is more one of controlling who gets the research money in the first place, on the basis of past conclusions that support a desired policy. This can be done by industry, but is also very often the method used by government.

groucho

12,134 posts

247 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
ludo said:
For the last 8000 years or so, there have been no large scale changes in exernal (non-anthropogenic) forcings and so the climate has been pretty stable (+-2 degrees C). This is the dynamic equilibrium.
turbobloke said:
What nonsense is that? Where from?

External non-anthropogenic forcings have dominated over the last 8000 years (and still do) solar irradiance and eruptivity led to the MWP and LIA over less than 2000 years's worth of climate:
I was watching a program last night on the History Channel (Ancient Apocalypse) where they were searching for a reason as to why the Egyptians mostly died out and regressed in technological terms.

They found that the Nile levels had dropped for at least 100 years making the land infertile, and a lake that the Nile 'feeds' completely dried up.

They looked all over the world for a clue as to what happened at this point 4200 years ago and the came to the conclusion that it was ABRUPT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, albeit cooling. Just goes to show that the Earth has not in fact had a stable climate for the past 8000 years.

So, are they all wrong? There was no references to today's climate so nothing to hide in my opinion.

One other thing I'd like to ask you, ludo. You say that you're only interested in the science and quote the other side of the argument. Do you go on to 'green' forums and argue the non - MMGW argument for balance, or not? If so, could you forward a link to us so we can see you're just not some 'die hard greeny'

Cheers.
Edited by groucho on Tuesday 18th December 20:18




Edited by groucho on Tuesday 18th December 20:20

turbobloke

104,131 posts

261 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
groucho said:
ludo said:
For the last 8000 years or so, there have been no large scale changes in exernal (non-anthropogenic) forcings and so the climate has been pretty stable (+-2 degrees C). This is the dynamic equilibrium.
turbobloke said:
What nonsense is that? Where from?

External non-anthropogenic forcings have dominated over the last 8000 years (and still do) solar irradiance and eruptivity led to the MWP and LIA over less than 2000 years' worth of climate:
I was watching a program last night on the History Channel (Ancient Apocalypse) where they were searching for a reason as to why the Egyptians mostly died out and regressed in technological terms.

They found that the Nile levels had dropped for at least 100 years making the land infertile, and a lake that the Nile 'feeds' completely dried up.

They looked all over the world for a clue as to what happened at this point 4200 years ago and the came to the conclusion that it was ABRUPT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, albeit cooling. Just goes to show that the Earth has not in fact had a stable climate for the past 8000 years.

So, are they all wrong? There was no references to today's climate so nothing to hide in my opinion.
In which case this may well be of interest to you:

NASA JPL and CIT researchers said:
Long-term climate records are a key to understanding how Earth's climate changed in the past and how it may change in the future. Direct measurements of light energy emitted by the sun, taken by satellites and other modern scientific techniques, suggest variations in the sun's activity influence Earth's long-term climate. However, there were no measured climate records of this type until the relatively recent scientific past.

Scientists have traditionally relied upon indirect data gathering methods to study climate in the Earth's past, such as drilling ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica. Such samples of accumulated snow and ice drilled from deep within ice sheets or glaciers contain trapped air bubbles whose composition can provide a picture of past climate conditions. Now, however, a group of NASA and university scientists has found a convincing link between long-term solar and climate variability in a unique and unexpected source: directly measured ancient water level records of the Nile, Earth's longest river.

Alexander Ruzmaikin and Joan Feynman, together with Dr. Yuk Yung, have analyzed Egyptian records of annual Nile water levels collected between 622 and 1470 A.D. at Rawdah Island in Cairo. These records were then compared to another well-documented human record from the same time period: observations of the number of auroras reported per decade in the Northern Hemisphere. Auroras are bright glows in the night sky that happen when mass is rapidly ejected from the sun's corona, or following solar flares. They are an excellent means of tracking variations in the sun's activity.

Feynman said that while ancient Nile and auroral records are generally "spotty," that was not the case for the particular 850-year period they studied.

"Since the time of the pharaohs, the water levels of the Nile were accurately measured, since they were critically important for agriculture and the preservation of temples in Egypt," she said. "These records are highly accurate and were obtained directly, making them a rare and unique resource for climatologists to peer back in time."

A similarly accurate record exists for auroral activity during the same time period in northern Europe and the Far East. People there routinely and carefully observed and recorded auroral activity, because auroras were believed to portend future disasters, such as droughts and the deaths of kings.

"A great deal of modern scientific effort has gone into collecting these ancient auroral records, inter-comparing them and evaluating their accuracy," Ruzmaikin said. "They have been successfully used by aurora experts around the world to study longer time scale variations."

The researchers found some clear links between the sun's activity and climate variations. The Nile water levels and aurora records had two somewhat regularly occurring variations in common - one with a period of about 88 years and the second with a period of about 200 years.

The researchers said the findings have climate implications that extend far beyond the Nile River basin.

"Our results characterize not just a small region of the upper Nile, but a much more extended part of Africa," said Ruzmaikin. "The Nile River provides drainage for approximately 10 percent of the African continent. Its two main sources - Lake Tana in Ethiopia and Lake Victoria in Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya - are in equatorial Africa. Since Africa's climate is interrelated to climate variability in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, these findings help us better understand climate change on a global basis."

So what causes these cyclical links between solar variability and the Nile? The authors suggest that variations in the sun's ultraviolet energy cause adjustments in a climate pattern called the Northern Annular Mode, which affects climate in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere during the winter. At sea level, this mode becomes the North Atlantic Oscillation, a large-scale seesaw in atmospheric mass that affects how air circulates over the Atlantic Ocean. During periods of high solar activity, the North Atlantic Oscillation's influence extends to the Indian Ocean. These adjustments may affect the distribution of air temperatures, which subsequently influence air circulation and rainfall at the Nile River's sources in eastern equatorial Africa. When solar activity is high, conditions are drier, and when it is low, conditions are wetter.

Study findings were recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.
NOTE: 88 years = modulated solar Gleissberg cycle, 200 years = modulated solar De Vries Suess cycle. Purely coincidental of course, as those pesky Pyramid slaves clearly breathed out too much carbon dioxide.

groucho said:
One other thing I'd like to ask you, ludo. You say that you're only interested in the science and quote the other side of the argument. Do you go on to 'green' forums and argue the non - MMGW argument for balance, or not? If so, could you forward a link to us so we can see you're just not some 'die hard greeny'
Cheers.
That's an intersting question. Assuming ludo is indeed true to the posted word, here's some ammunition to take to the Greenie forums. It's bad news, I'm afraid, for True Believers.

Penner and Andronova

A transient change in the balance between the incoming and outgoing radiation is an important indicator of the changing Earth’s climate. In this paper we use available data from satellites (1980 to present) and ground measurements (1995 to present) to reconstruct the long-term evolution of the energy budget of the tropical atmosphere (20S-20N). We compare the estimate of the radiative budget with the corresponding estimates obtained from model simulations from the AR4 database. We show that in spite of the dramatic increase in the model’s ability to simulate past and recent temperature change, the models show different sensitivities to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and do not agree with observations of the overall radiative balance tendencies over 1980-2000.

baz1985

3,598 posts

246 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
grumbledoak said:
baz1985 said:
'peer review' is not an infallible reviewing mechanism as there are a plethora of other influential factors particularly with respect to 'funding'.
If you are going to slate science, please get it right! wink

Peer review itself is very effective, as any published paper can be read and the experiment repeated by others. A paper on the deficiencies can then be published, and so on. So, the truth comes out in the end.

Editorial bias also exists, where papers with the 'wrong' conclusions cannot get published. But with a large enough selection of publishers, the truth again tends to come out in the end.

The 'funding issue' is more one of controlling who gets the research money in the first place, on the basis of past conclusions that support a desired policy. This can be done by industry, but is also very often the method used by government.
that is what I meant....my choice of words was poor. I wasn't trying to slate science.

groucho

12,134 posts

247 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
groucho said:
ludo said:
For the last 8000 years or so, there have been no large scale changes in exernal (non-anthropogenic) forcings and so the climate has been pretty stable (+-2 degrees C). This is the dynamic equilibrium.
turbobloke said:
What nonsense is that? Where from?

External non-anthropogenic forcings have dominated over the last 8000 years (and still do) solar irradiance and eruptivity led to the MWP and LIA over less than 2000 years' worth of climate:
I was watching a program last night on the History Channel (Ancient Apocalypse) where they were searching for a reason as to why the Egyptians mostly died out and regressed in technological terms.

They found that the Nile levels had dropped for at least 100 years making the land infertile, and a lake that the Nile 'feeds' completely dried up.

They looked all over the world for a clue as to what happened at this point 4200 years ago and the came to the conclusion that it was ABRUPT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, albeit cooling. Just goes to show that the Earth has not in fact had a stable climate for the past 8000 years.

So, are they all wrong? There was no references to today's climate so nothing to hide in my opinion.
In which case this may well be of interest to you:

NASA JPL and CIT researchers said:
Long-term climate records are a key to understanding how Earth's climate changed in the past and how it may change in the future. Direct measurements of light energy emitted by the sun, taken by satellites and other modern scientific techniques, suggest variations in the sun's activity influence Earth's long-term climate. However, there were no measured climate records of this type until the relatively recent scientific past.

Scientists have traditionally relied upon indirect data gathering methods to study climate in the Earth's past, such as drilling ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica. Such samples of accumulated snow and ice drilled from deep within ice sheets or glaciers contain trapped air bubbles whose composition can provide a picture of past climate conditions. Now, however, a group of NASA and university scientists has found a convincing link between long-term solar and climate variability in a unique and unexpected source: directly measured ancient water level records of the Nile, Earth's longest river.

Alexander Ruzmaikin and Joan Feynman, together with Dr. Yuk Yung, have analyzed Egyptian records of annual Nile water levels collected between 622 and 1470 A.D. at Rawdah Island in Cairo. These records were then compared to another well-documented human record from the same time period: observations of the number of auroras reported per decade in the Northern Hemisphere. Auroras are bright glows in the night sky that happen when mass is rapidly ejected from the sun's corona, or following solar flares. They are an excellent means of tracking variations in the sun's activity.

Feynman said that while ancient Nile and auroral records are generally "spotty," that was not the case for the particular 850-year period they studied.

"Since the time of the pharaohs, the water levels of the Nile were accurately measured, since they were critically important for agriculture and the preservation of temples in Egypt," she said. "These records are highly accurate and were obtained directly, making them a rare and unique resource for climatologists to peer back in time."

A similarly accurate record exists for auroral activity during the same time period in northern Europe and the Far East. People there routinely and carefully observed and recorded auroral activity, because auroras were believed to portend future disasters, such as droughts and the deaths of kings.

"A great deal of modern scientific effort has gone into collecting these ancient auroral records, inter-comparing them and evaluating their accuracy," Ruzmaikin said. "They have been successfully used by aurora experts around the world to study longer time scale variations."

The researchers found some clear links between the sun's activity and climate variations. The Nile water levels and aurora records had two somewhat regularly occurring variations in common - one with a period of about 88 years and the second with a period of about 200 years.

The researchers said the findings have climate implications that extend far beyond the Nile River basin.

"Our results characterize not just a small region of the upper Nile, but a much more extended part of Africa," said Ruzmaikin. "The Nile River provides drainage for approximately 10 percent of the African continent. Its two main sources - Lake Tana in Ethiopia and Lake Victoria in Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya - are in equatorial Africa. Since Africa's climate is interrelated to climate variability in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, these findings help us better understand climate change on a global basis."

So what causes these cyclical links between solar variability and the Nile? The authors suggest that variations in the sun's ultraviolet energy cause adjustments in a climate pattern called the Northern Annular Mode, which affects climate in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere during the winter. At sea level, this mode becomes the North Atlantic Oscillation, a large-scale seesaw in atmospheric mass that affects how air circulates over the Atlantic Ocean. During periods of high solar activity, the North Atlantic Oscillation's influence extends to the Indian Ocean. These adjustments may affect the distribution of air temperatures, which subsequently influence air circulation and rainfall at the Nile River's sources in eastern equatorial Africa. When solar activity is high, conditions are drier, and when it is low, conditions are wetter.

Study findings were recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.
NOTE: 88 years = modulated solar Gleissberg cycle, 200 years = modulated solar De Vries Suess cycle. Purely coincidental of course, as those pesky Pyramid slaves clearly breathed out too much carbon dioxide.
thumbup

Ancient Apocalypse seems like a decent program. On tonight also at ten IIRC. History Channel

ludo

5,308 posts

205 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
groucho said:
ludo said:
For the last 8000 years or so, there have been no large scale changes in exernal (non-anthropogenic) forcings and so the climate has been pretty stable (+-2 degrees C). This is the dynamic equilibrium.
turbobloke said:
What nonsense is that? Where from?

External non-anthropogenic forcings have dominated over the last 8000 years (and still do) solar irradiance and eruptivity led to the MWP and LIA over less than 2000 years's worth of climate:
I was watching a program last night on the History Channel (Ancient Apocalypse) where they were searching for a reason as to why the Egyptians mostly died out and regressed in technological terms.

They found that the Nile levels had dropped for at least 100 years making the land infertile, and a lake that the Nile 'feeds' completely dried up.

They looked all over the world for a clue as to what happened at this point 4200 years ago and the came to the conclusion that it was ABRUPT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, albeit cooling. Just goes to show that the Earth has not in fact had a stable climate for the past 8000 years.
You could say the same thing about the little ice age. Relatively small change in average temperatures (possibly due to sun spots) caused widespread agricultural difficulties and famines. Depends what you think is stable, +/- 2degrees sounds reasonable, and this is what is recorded in the Vostok ice cores.

groucho said:
So, are they all wrong? There was no references to today's climate so nothing to hide in my opinion.

One other thing I'd like to ask you, ludo. You say that you're only interested in the science and quote the other side of the argument. Do you go on to 'green' forums and argue the non - MMGW argument for balance, or not? If so, could you forward a link to us so we can see you're just not some 'die hard greeny'

Cheers.
Basically, I only post to disagree with something if it is at variance with my understanding of the science. For example I have criticised Gores film on the other current MMGW thread as propaganda (which it is).

groucho

12,134 posts

247 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
So, you're saying that the MMGW camp science has no holes in it? Just wondered that's all.

ludo

5,308 posts

205 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
groucho said:
So, you're saying that the MMGW camp science has no holes in it? Just wondered that's all.
No, it is just that they aren't posting here, I can't respond to holes in posts that aren't made. Besides pro-MMGW nonsense would get slated by everone here, you don't need me for that!



turbobloke

104,131 posts

261 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
ludo said:
Basically, I only post to disagree with something if it is at variance with my understanding of the science.
ludo said:
My limited understanding of the science
So that's why you disagree so often, there was me thinking you were a True Believer wink

grumbledoak

31,561 posts

234 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
baz1985 said:
that is what I meant....my choice of words was poor. I wasn't trying to slate science.
No need to apologise; the 'winky' was there for a reason.

mondeoman

11,430 posts

267 months

Tuesday 18th December 2007
quotequote all
An interesting debate, and I think we should thank Ludo for his counterpoints, even if all it has served to do is make us re-look at the evidence and accept that there may be "statistical" holes in some of it, but on the whole the MMGW "theories" are still a bunch of arse that any impartial observer would see straight through.

In fact all of this has merely strengthened my understanding and knowledge and given me more ammo to use against the zealots.

Cheers!

Laird

39,731 posts

285 months

Wednesday 19th December 2007
quotequote all
mondeoman said:
An interesting debate, and I think we should thank Ludo for his counterpoints, even if all it has served to do is make us re-look at the evidence and accept that there may be "statistical" holes in some of it, but on the whole the MMGW "theories" are still a bunch of arse that any impartial observer would see straight through.

In fact all of this has merely strengthened my understanding and knowledge and given me more ammo to use against the zealots.

Cheers!
Agreed