The **BOXING** thread (Vol 4)

[EddieSteadyGo]

Bright Halo said:

biggbn said:

Really think AJ only chance is to be mega aggressive and try to bull and boss his way to a KO early...but the chances of that are very small I think. He can't outbox Usyk, can't win on points and maybe can't do 12 at a pace himself. A cultured bombs away seems the only chance he has?

I think you are pretty much spot on there.

The problem with being mega-aggressive when facing a skilled boxer is what happened to Joe Smith last weekend - it usually ends with the more skilled person winning fairly easily and getting a knockout.

Joshua has a useful reach advantage - so in theory he should be able to keep things at range. Last time IIRC he spent a lot of the match pawing with his jab, and very rarely did it have any snap. That is what I'd like to see him change - using a jab as a weapon rather than a "range finder", and trying to do damage, even if it to Usyk's body.

And he can also definitely win on points - in fact, that I think is the most likely outcome - assuming he can make it fairly competitive he should get the decision.

[biggbn]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Bright Halo said:

biggbn said:

Really think AJ only chance is to be mega aggressive and try to bull and boss his way to a KO early...but the chances of that are very small I think. He can't outbox Usyk, can't win on points and maybe can't do 12 at a pace himself. A cultured bombs away seems the only chance he has?

I think you are pretty much spot on there.

The problem with being mega-aggressive when facing a skilled boxer is what happened to Joe Smith last weekend - it usually ends with the more skilled person winning fairly easily and getting a knockout.

Joshua has a useful reach advantage - so in theory he should be able to keep things at range. Last time IIRC he spent a lot of the match pawing with his jab, and very rarely did it have any snap. That is what I'd like to see him change - using a jab as a weapon rather than a "range finder", and trying to do damage, even if it to Usyk's body.

And he can also definitely win on points - in fact, that I think is the most likely outcome - assuming he can make it fairly competitive he should get the decision.

I just can't see him learning enough in the time he has had. You can't jab what isn't there, if he gets into a boxing match he will have his ears boxed off again, in my opinion. You are bang on right by the way, but there is a world of difference between Joe Smith and AJ. I think he might, might manage to stop the Usyk train if he gets him in trouble. Kids a great finisher. But outbox him? Not a chance. His jab, even on its best day, doesn't keep Usyk off. I think it's gotta be down and dirty in the trenches and at a good pace for someone to beat the Ukrainian.

It sounds counter intuitive for me to say this, but although I believe Usyk will win clearly, maybe even stop AJ this time, I think it will be a competitive 'one sided ' fight. AJ will have his moments, he always does, and his power will keep him 'live' in every round. But I just think Usyk is all wrong for him stylistically.

[EddieSteadyGo]

biggbn said:

I just can't see him learning enough in the time he has had. You can't jab what isn't there, if he gets into a boxing match he will have his ears boxed off again, in my opinion. You are bang on right by the way, but there is a world of difference between Joe Smith and AJ. I think he might, might manage to stop the Usyk train if he gets him in trouble. Kids a great finisher. But outbox him? Not a chance. His jab, even on its best day, doesn't keep Usyk off. I think it's gotta be down and dirty in the trenches and at a good pace for someone to beat the Ukrainian.

It sounds counter intuitive for me to say this, but although I believe Usyk will win clearly, maybe even stop AJ this time, I think it will be a competitive 'one sided ' fight. AJ will have his moments, he always does, and his power will keep him 'live' in every round. But I just think Usyk is all wrong for him stylistically.

I suppose it comes down to definitions - I'm suggesting jabbing him with hard, meaningful, spiteful jabs, and to the body if necessary. Example would be Wilder's use of the jab for the first couple of rounds against his last fight with Fury. They can't easily be avoided. I wouldn't worry about going for the knockout, or being too aggressive, or even trying to land the right hand, as that is what Usyk will be mainly watching for and trying to counter.

Last time, from my recollection, Joshua was using the jab as a range-finder for the right hand, and he wasn't often throwing his jab with any intent - that's perhaps one reason Usyk could easily close the distance (although I'm also not trying to denigrate Usyk's skills).

[Pugaris]

EddieSteadyGo said:

I suppose it comes down to definitions - I'm suggesting jabbing him with hard, meaningful, spiteful jabs, and to the body if necessary. Example would be Wilder's use of the jab for the first couple of rounds against his last fight with Fury. They can't easily be avoided. I wouldn't worry about going for the knockout, or being too aggressive, or even trying to land the right hand, as that is what Usyk will be mainly watching for and trying to counter.

Last time, from my recollection, Joshua was using the jab as a range-finder for the right hand, and he wasn't often throwing his jab with any intent - that's perhaps one reason Usyk could easily close the distance (although I'm also not trying to denigrate Usyk's skills).

The thing is, this is exactly how Joshua usually jabs. I don't think the pawing jab was a tactic, he was scared to let the jab go properly because nearly every time he did, Usyk banged him with a straight left. Joshua's defence is also heavily based on picking off his opponent's jab with his lead hand and Usyk's feints prevented him doing that, leaving it looking like a stupid pawing jab.

This breakdown of it is absolutely excellent: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yn8K04jzt4&t=...

[biggbn]

EddieSteadyGo said:

biggbn said:

I just can't see him learning enough in the time he has had. You can't jab what isn't there, if he gets into a boxing match he will have his ears boxed off again, in my opinion. You are bang on right by the way, but there is a world of difference between Joe Smith and AJ. I think he might, might manage to stop the Usyk train if he gets him in trouble. Kids a great finisher. But outbox him? Not a chance. His jab, even on its best day, doesn't keep Usyk off. I think it's gotta be down and dirty in the trenches and at a good pace for someone to beat the Ukrainian.

It sounds counter intuitive for me to say this, but although I believe Usyk will win clearly, maybe even stop AJ this time, I think it will be a competitive 'one sided ' fight. AJ will have his moments, he always does, and his power will keep him 'live' in every round. But I just think Usyk is all wrong for him stylistically.

I suppose it comes down to definitions - I'm suggesting jabbing him with hard, meaningful, spiteful jabs, and to the body if necessary. Example would be Wilder's use of the jab for the first couple of rounds against his last fight with Fury. They can't easily be avoided. I wouldn't worry about going for the knockout, or being too aggressive, or even trying to land the right hand, as that is what Usyk will be mainly watching for and trying to counter.

Last time, from my recollection, Joshua was using the jab as a range-finder for the right hand, and he wasn't often throwing his jab with any intent - that's perhaps one reason Usyk could easily close the distance (although I'm also not trying to denigrate Usyk's skills).

Was just about to reply but Pugaris has made my point. If AJ tries a commited power jab again and again he will overcomit, he will tire and he will be countered hard. I think he needs to forget his boxing and make it a fight, find a way to get in, grapple, maul, lean on, wear him down and every time he sees an opening he needs to be quick, throw combinations but with intent. He finishes well and he can throw spiteful uppercut and body shots. I think he needs to fight at this range and make it his range. Bowe, Fury, both big guys who mauled and fought inside very well, used their attributes to bring boxers into brawls and brawlers into boxing matches. I don't think AJ has the boxing brain or adaptability of either of those men but he can fight, he can bang and he's a unit. He needs to fight to his strengths not try to fight Usyk's fight.

[Pugaris]

There's definitely the potential for success if AJ can find ways to land big shots to Usyk's body. On the rare occasion he managed that, Usyk didn't like it.

I also don't really know how Breidis did it, but he managed to get Usyk to stand and trade with him extensively and nearly beat him as a result. I think the key to beating Usyk lies in that fight and Briedis's trainer has actually said in the past he thinks he knows how to beat Usyk if you're a good HW - AJ could have done a lot worse than getting him in the camp. If AJ managed to do what Briedis did and get Usyk to stand and trade, he'd likely win the fight.

The biggest problem, though, is that Usyk is the master at adapting. If Joshua has success to the body early, Usyk will adjust and I just don't think AJ has the experience or intelligence to really adjust back. The same thing happened against Breidis, in the back half of the fight Usyk adjusted and won nearly every single round. Bellew, as well, had some success early on but he said 2 things happen - 1 Usyk is too clever and started to adjust to the traps Bellew was setting and 2, Bellew just got knackered - not only was fighting Usyk physically draining but it was also the most mentally drained he'd felt in a fight because keeping up with Usyk's adjustments is a lot on its own.

The difference with AJ vs Briedis, though, is that if AJ gets Usyk trading for 5 rounds he can end the fight.

[fridaypassion]

For all AJ has gone off to improve Usyk has also had this opportunity. Usyk is starting from a bit higher base level though.

[biggbn]

Pugaris said:

There's definitely the potential for success if AJ can find ways to land big shots to Usyk's body. On the rare occasion he managed that, Usyk didn't like it.

I also don't really know how Breidis did it, but he managed to get Usyk to stand and trade with him extensively and nearly beat him as a result. I think the key to beating Usyk lies in that fight and Briedis's trainer has actually said in the past he thinks he knows how to beat Usyk if you're a good HW - AJ could have done a lot worse than getting him in the camp. If AJ managed to do what Briedis did and get Usyk to stand and trade, he'd likely win the fight.

The biggest problem, though, is that Usyk is the master at adapting. If Joshua has success to the body early, Usyk will adjust and I just don't think AJ has the experience or intelligence to really adjust back. The same thing happened against Breidis, in the back half of the fight Usyk adjusted and won nearly every single round. Bellew, as well, had some success early on but he said 2 things happen - 1 Usyk is too clever and started to adjust to the traps Bellew was setting and 2, Bellew just got knackered - not only was fighting Usyk physically draining but it was also the most mentally drained he'd felt in a fight because keeping up with Usyk's adjustments is a lot on its own.

The difference with AJ vs Briedis, though, is that if AJ gets Usyk trading for 5 rounds he can end the fight.

Pretty much my thoughts, it's gotta be a back yard brawl while it lasts!!

[chimi]

Have to agree with that. I’ve followed boxing for 40-odd years and to me AJ is a slightly better Frank Bruno. He is not a natural and miles away from our best heavyweight of the last 40 years - Lennox.

All things considered, AJ has done very well for himself and his family without ever beating anyone of real quality in their prime. Hats off to him.

He will probably get another couple of pay days before retiring - not before embarking on lots of riddle talking and attempts at appearing to be the great philosopher.

[EddieSteadyGo]

Pugaris said:

The thing is, this is exactly how Joshua usually jabs. I don't think the pawing jab was a tactic, he was scared to let the jab go properly because nearly every time he did, Usyk banged him with a straight left. Joshua's defence is also heavily based on picking off his opponent's jab with his lead hand and Usyk's feints prevented him doing that, leaving it looking like a stupid pawing jab.

This breakdown of it is absolutely excellent: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yn8K04jzt4&t=...

That is a good video analysis which I hadn't seen.

I'm still thinking though that a more committed jab, initiated first, could be the good way forward for Joshua. Trying to use his jab to disrupt his opponent's attacks makes sense if he wants to stay in range and setup a potential opportunity to throw his right hand. But as that video analysis shows, it creates problems if you don't read properly what's likely to be coming back - that strategy is what I'd call trying to outbox Usyk.

Instead, I think a strategy based around an offense, hurtful jab, but where he isn't trying to then throw his power shots might work. Yes, it won't get Joshua a KO win, but it could deliver a points win.

The bookmaker odds though are all pointing to an Usyk win, so I realise this is unlikely. But I think if Joshua tries to be overly aggressive he will get knocked out. And I don't think he has the type of Fury stamina (or stature) for try and ragdoll Usky around the ring.

[Pugaris]

EddieSteadyGo said:

The bookmaker odds though are all pointing to an Usyk win, so I realise this is unlikely. But I think if Joshua tries to be overly aggressive he will get knocked out. And I don't think he has the type of Fury stamina (or stature) for try and ragdoll Usky around the ring.

Yeah I definitely agree with this. The whole "he just needs to be more aggressive" stuff doesn't chime with me. If it were that simple, great boxers would lose all the time. Kambosos doesn't lack aggression but he couldn't utilise it against Haney. Nobody could accuse Gatti of lacking aggression and dog but he couldn't touch Mayweather - aggression doesn't make up for a skill gap.

If "aggression" wins him the fight it'll be because he's found ways to enable him to let his hands go - but that part has to come first else you're just swinging at air. If he can't do that, then I think like you say, he needs to find ways to really lead the fight with his jab and use that to win rounds. I don't think either are likely, to be honest.

[272BHP]

AJ and Garcia must realise he was outboxed last time and will very likely be outboxed this time.

So how to win? I think his only chance is to turn it into a 6 round fight and try to bully the smaller guy.

Usyk still favourite for me though.

[EddieSteadyGo]

272BHP said:

...
So how to win? I think his only chance is to turn it into a 6 round fight and try to bully the smaller guy.
....

But then Usyk just gets on the back foot, keeps feinting, lets Joshua punch fresh air, waits for him to get tired so he can time him with a countershot. Doesn't seem like a winning strategy to me.

I also think commercially that would be an incredibly bad idea for Joshua's future marketability. We know part of Joshua's appeal is to the casual fan, who maybe follow Joshua but they aren't interested in the detail like most of us who post on this thread. If Joshua loses on points, that's not ideal, but there will be plenty of casual sports fans who will still buy his PPVs. But if he gets tired, gets exposed and then gets knocked out because he uses reckless tactics, I think that will significantly reduce his casual fanbase and hence put a much bigger dent on his future earnings.

[Lee Jones Jnr]

EddieSteadyGo said:

they aren't interested in the detail like most of us who post on this thread.

[EddieSteadyGo]

Lee Jones Jnr said:

Tut, tut Mr Jones... you are burnishing your reputation for being salty

[Unreal]

Joshua's only chance is a ko. Usyk is simply different class in every other respect and Joshua doesn't have the brain or skills to improve enough. Expect another exhibition from the Ukrainian.

[Pugaris]

Unreal said:

Joshua's only chance is a ko.

He needs to improve by 2 rounds on 1 scorecard and 3 on another. Less if he scores a knockdown/s.

A points win is definitely viable. I felt Usyk won 9 rounds minimum in the first fight but one judge gave him 9, one 8 and one 7. Any round that Usyk doesn't dominate will go to AJ.

[Unreal]

Pugaris said:

Unreal said:

Joshua's only chance is a ko.

He needs to improve by 2 rounds on 1 scorecard and 3 on another. Less if he scores a knockdown/s.

A points win is definitely viable. I felt Usyk won 9 rounds minimum in the first fight but one judge gave him 9, one 8 and one 7. Any round that Usyk doesn't dominate will go to AJ.

Sounds so simple when you put it like that doesn't it? Never going to happen. More likely that Usyk will stop him this time.

[fridaypassion]

I think Usyk will take a more decisive victory this time. That video breakdown was really good it shows actually AJ doing some clever adjustments but Usyk being that bit cleverer and as with all elite sport it the 0.1% that separates the top athletes.

[biggbn]

Pugaris said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

The bookmaker odds though are all pointing to an Usyk win, so I realise this is unlikely. But I think if Joshua tries to be overly aggressive he will get knocked out. And I don't think he has the type of Fury stamina (or stature) for try and ragdoll Usky around the ring.

Yeah I definitely agree with this. The whole "he just needs to be more aggressive" stuff doesn't chime with me. If it were that simple, great boxers would lose all the time. Kambosos doesn't lack aggression but he couldn't utilise it against Haney. Nobody could accuse Gatti of lacking aggression and dog but he couldn't touch Mayweather - aggression doesn't make up for a skill gap.

If "aggression" wins him the fight it'll be because he's found ways to enable him to let his hands go - but that part has to come first else you're just swinging at air. If he can't do that, then I think like you say, he needs to find ways to really lead the fight with his jab and use that to win rounds. I don't think either are likely, to be honest.

I'm not simply saying he needs to be more aggressive, trying to use a committed, thudding jab and loading up will get him knocked out, definitely. I'm suggesting he makes it a messy, untidy fight, closes the distance however he can and lays hands on Usyk roughing him up and utilising power shots from the inside where he is relatively safe. Boxing aggressively from the outside will see him comprehensively outpointed or stopped, Usyk is a better boxer than him, it's that simple. But I have seen bigger men with significant physical advantages beat better boxers than them before, so AJ needs to use those advantages as it's the only area where he has a clear advantage, but only of he uses them tactically. It's an intersting fight, and due to the world situation, AJ will find himself in an unlikely position, he wok t be the favourite from either the bookies or much of the non UK public who will want a good news story for the Ukranians. AJ is up against it here and I'm afraid this defeat, shoukd it happen, will be more comprehensive than the last. If he does get beaten and stays active we may see him in some cracking fights with Wilder, Joyce and Dubois though...I see little point in him fighting Whyte again, he is significantly better than Dilllian.