New bike prices crystal ball

[TAZ 215]

neilr said:

The question really is will the prices come down again? I can't see it. If people will keep ponying up the dough then there is no reason to think they will return to somethign sensible once covid / canal blocking supply issues are no longer an issue.

Its a shame really, for me the cost of a 105 equpped bike simply doesnt reflect good or even reasonable value anymore.. Speciallised Allez for 1250 or a Tiagra Scott Speedster for 1050? Big windows is all I can say.

I love cycling and I'm lucky that i don't need a new bike but TBH (even without the current challenges caused by covid etc )the cycling industry needs to take a long hard look at itself.

I may well be in a minority but every time i have to replace something, whether thats a component or clothing, I feel like I'm being taken for a mug, so these days i only buy what i absolutely need and no more.

For clarity i've no issue with businesses making profits and neither do I expect well made stuff to be dirt cheap (thats ridiculous) but its when it starts to feel like a con i start to feel aggrieved. Prices go up and quality for a lot of things keeps going down. (Decathlon are a prime example of this IMO).

If you look at the accounts of Ribble, Cannondale, Wiggle and Rutland to name but a few they have all lost millions for the last few years.

The cycle industry has always been low margin.

[loskie]

Really? Are you sure?

[TAZ 215]

Very sure.

You might need to know that Cannondale is listed on Companies House as IBD Bikes Ltd. they should have posted accounts by now but are late.

Ribble are listed as Cycle Sport North Ltd.

You just need to work out Rutland and Wiggle holding companies to get the true picture.

[TheJimi]

TAZ 215 said:

The cycle industry has always been low margin.

That's a surprise to me, I've always thought that margins on bikes would have been pretty high.

[Hugo Stiglitz]

Sonofabeesting said:

I think Brexit has a lot to do with it.

For example I was looking at a Vitus which was 650 Euros a year ago, it has now gone up to 850 euros and when I asked Chain Reaction Cycles why they said it was due to increased costs with Brexit and shipping to Europe.

I assume it works from things going to Europe to the UK as well.

Covid, brexit and a combination of the two - why sell competitively when you know your stock is in high demand.

Brexit only really affected the start of the year.

Companies aren't charities they want profit.


Why is a bike manufacturered in Taiwan using a Japanese groupset shipped direct to Britain coating 20% more?

[Crippo]

You soon realise how literally anyone can say anything on an Internet forum and have other people believe them when you actually work in the Industry being discussed and have first hand knowledge of the topic.
I think everyone should stop making stuff up. If you have actual knowledge then feel free to contribute but most people who do know wouldn’t be commenting in a Public space. Sorry to ruin the topic.

[J4CKO]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I cant ever remember a Carbon Framed 104 equipped bike being £400, did you mean £1400 ?

https://roadbikesreviewsuk.blogspot.com/2013/05/ve...

I paid £1500 for my Domane 4.0 back then, that was the entry level model with Tiagra, thats just been replaced with the SL5 which lists at £2850 but they couldnt get me the Tiagra equipped SL4 (Im not proud) which was £2250 list and did it for the same price. And paying 2 grand via CTW means its cost me about £1400 all told.

But from £1500 to £2250 for the equivalent after seven years which has gained front IsoSpeed, disk brakes and the very handy storage compartment doesn't seem so bad,

I think the lack of supply, increased demand means that there are so few bikes anything gets snapped up and folk are now used to paying list or not getting anything, I think the last years model markdowns and discounts will re-appear as supplies ramp up again but it depends on other countries by and large and not the UK so much so could be a while.

Plus, I think a lot of bikes got bought over lockdown and folk may decided to get rid so there will be some secondhand stuff coming through.

I was in the Trek shop and a couple came in and they had used the online booking thing and booked an appointment as her partner wanted to try an electric bike, they got really unpleasant when they said they had nothing in stock, a call ahead would make sense if travelling to see a bike, a new E Bike shop has opened locally, they must be sellng really well

Like the scooters, was out for a ride last night and there was a squadron of little scrotes on electric scooters, like the Red Arrows but in a less accurate formation, and instead of red, white and blue smoke they left behind massive clouds of stinking Skunk smoke, explains the formation to an extent I suppose and being largely oblivious or traffic.

[Court_S]

neilr said:

The question really is will the prices come down again? I can't see it. If people will keep ponying up the dough then there is no reason to think they will return to somethign sensible once covid / canal blocking supply issues are no longer an issue.

Its a shame really, for me the cost of a 105 equpped bike simply doesnt reflect good or even reasonable value anymore.. Speciallised Allez for 1250 or a Tiagra Scott Speedster for 1050? Big windows is all I can say.

I love cycling and I'm lucky that i don't need a new bike but TBH (even without the current challenges caused by covid etc )the cycling industry needs to take a long hard look at itself.

I may well be in a minority but every time i have to replace something, whether thats a component or clothing, I feel like I'm being taken for a mug, so these days i only buy what i absolutely need and no more.

For clarity i've no issue with businesses making profits and neither do I expect well made stuff to be dirt cheap (thats ridiculous) but its when it starts to feel like a con i start to feel aggrieved. Prices go up and quality for a lot of things keeps going down. (Decathlon are a prime example of this IMO).

Everyones point where they feel they are being turned over is if course different but I'm starting to find mine. It wont stop me from cycling but its shortsighted in the long run as people like myself won't spend as much money on bikes/components/clothing in the long term. All those extra jerseys or shoes you don't absolutely need (we all do it) different cassettes just to 'see how it works out' start to add up when a lot of people stop buying them.

Feel the same. I’ve ridden mountain bikes on and off since the late 90’s (had a hiatus around uni time). I love riding my bike but I’ve totally lost interest talking about bikes, reading reviews (used to spend lots of time on Pink Bike, Singletrack World etc), watching videos on the internet etc. Every time I need to buy something now I just feel like I’m being mugged off. The cost of new SRAM rotors seems ridiculous now compared to the last pair I bought. I guess I’m noticing the lack of grey imports jobbed out through the likes of CRC which did help keep the costs down.

[TheJimi]

Crippo said:

You soon realise how literally anyone can say anything on an Internet forum and have other people believe them when you actually work in the Industry being discussed and have first hand knowledge of the topic.
I think everyone should stop making stuff up. If you have actual knowledge then feel free to contribute but most people who do know wouldn’t be commenting in a Public space. Sorry to ruin the topic.

My bold.

One of the great things about PH is that there are plenty knowledgeable people who are willing to comment on their respective industries. Plenty bullstters too, but they're usually quick to get found out by others who actually have knowledge of a given subject.

So going back my bold - is bikes some kinda top secret topic then, eh?

Edited by TheJimi on Wednesday 28th April 21:53

[Harpoon]

TAZ 215 said:

Very sure.

You might need to know that Cannondale is listed on Companies House as IBD Bikes Ltd. they should have posted accounts by now but are late.

Ribble are listed as Cycle Sport North Ltd.

You just need to work out Rutland and Wiggle holding companies to get the true picture.

Is IBD Bikes just the UK distributor though? I thought Cannondale was part of Cycling Sports Group, who are then part of another bigger group?

Reading road.cc the other day, I thought this article showed how much prices have gone up

https://road.cc/content/tech-news/five-cool-things...

road.cc said:

The Defy Advanced 3 is Giant’s affordable endurance road bike that’s purpose built for long rides on even the rougher roads. The D-Fuse seatpost promises to take the edge off road buzz, while added tyre clearance up to 32mm also helps. The Defy is equipped with a Tiagra groupset and features integrated hydraulic disc brakes for supplying consistent braking power.

Affordable at £2099 and you only get Tiagra. Ouch.

Edited by Harpoon on Tuesday 27th April 21:13

[J4CKO]

I have gone from Tiagra to 105, cant say it I would notice if I didnt know, and I gained an extra gear which gives a better range.

Was initially non plussed with the disk brakes but did a full stop from 30 odd mph and wow, fantastic, no screeching, juddering or change in force. Didnt initially think they were that powerful but they are and seem to have more control.

Are the higher ones much better ? Must admit I do like the sound of the electronic ones but not sure I could lash 1500 quid on a set.

[ArnageWRC]

Harpoon said:

Affordable at £2099 and you only get Tiagra. Ouch.

Edited by Harpoon on Tuesday 27th April 21:13

A year or so ago, a Tiagra would probably be less than £1,300. In fact, £2099 would almost be in Ultegra level....but not anymore.

I recall rumours about the Rival AXS Etap - a middle level groupset, probably equivalent to 105; so one expected it to feature on bikes between £2,000 - £3,000. Lo and behold, it's arrived and it's on bikes of £4,000+......

Brexit, COvid and other reasons have enabled them to charge over the odds - and people will pay them. You can't blame them really....

[Master Bean]

An article on bikes getting more expensive.

https://www.bikeradar.com/features/why-are-bikes-s...

[Hugo Stiglitz]

Master Bean said:

An article on bikes getting more expensive.

https://www.bikeradar.com/features/why-are-bikes-s...

I'll never read anything by them.

[MrBarry123]

Hugo Stiglitz said:

I'll never read anything by them.

[TAZ 215]

TheJimi said:

Crippo said:

You soon realise how literally anyone can say anything on an Internet forum and have other people believe them when you actually work in the Industry being discussed and have first hand knowledge of the topic.
I think everyone should stop making stuff up. If you have actual knowledge then feel free to contribute but most people who do know wouldn’t be commenting in a Public space. Sorry to ruin the topic.

My bold.

One of the great things about PH is that there are plenty knowledgeable people who are willing to comment on their respective industries. Plenty bullstters too, but they're usually quick to get found out by others who actually have knowledge of a given subject.

So going back my bold - is bikes some kinda top secret topic then, eh?

Edited by TheJimi on Wednesday 28th April 21:53

Not secret.

Just the way of forums.

I posted on a Business thread about funding a new bike shop, a chap wanted to open as a repair outfit. I commented that his biggest issue was likely to be component supply as many of my established customers are struggling to get supply for repairs.

The next comment after mine suggested that I was wrong - everything will be fine with a plan, determination and drive!

In the last few weeks I have done video calls with Shimano, many big retailers and the factory giving me a broad view of the world. But what do I know!

No matter how much you know, someone will always think they know better.

Sometimes it is better just to keep quiet!

[Hugo Stiglitz]

Oh aye. There's a topic I am very knowledgeable on but I'd never comment on a public forum on the subject. It royally frustrates me sometimes and I'll half type a post then delete

Instead I'll sprout my half knowledge on other topics. Said without irony but hey.

[neilr]

Although i broadly stick by my earlier comment, after surfing various sites a 105 equiped road bike from Decathlon can be had for £849. So i have to admit i was wrong in some aspects as that seems like great value. Having bought one of the ed Triban3 road bikes many years ago if it is as well made etc as that was then you can't go wrong. (out of stock though at the moment Although I'm not looking for a new bike) I do stand by my comments about ever decreasing quality and ever increasing price though.


Interesting comments re a bke business. Local LBS to me went belly up in 2016, his model seemed based on selling high end bikes and pushing American Classic wheels. He told me their workshop was always fully booked though. Can't help thinking that if he had concentrated on that side of the business it would have been a sucess. Unfortunaltey I think he was more concerned with asscociating himself and his shop with 'cool' high end brands and trying ot flog them to everyone. I used to go in there to buy inner tubes/brinks bottles/the odd tyre to try and support them at least a little bit, but after being friendly at first he clearly was dispaointed i didnt spend 5k on a bike everymonth so i stopped giving them my money. (if he hadn't behaved like there there is every chance I might have bought a bike from him) I predicted they would fold in 18mnth and they managed 2 years. Obviousuly supply issues weren't an issue for him back then though.

[Pulse]

They’ve sold out of all bikes, at full retail, for the past 12 months.

I honestly see that continuing for a while yet. Which means we’ll see price rises.

[ian in lancs]

Pulse said:

They’ve sold out of all bikes, at full retail, for the past 12 months.

I've given up looking for an XS/S/Women's endurance/gravel bike to try and to get before winter sets in! For one bike we were quoted spring 2024! Utter madness! One well-known showroom was full of men's M/L bikes (c50 or so) but not one Smallish/women's bike at all. The best they could offer was a sit on a badly set up rickety bike fit contraption and expected me to splash out 3k+ on that basis. They would have an order if they'd had one bike to sit on and test ride. I think these fat, dumb, happy, retailers will get a shock when the majority of customers get fed up with the pantomime and move onto the next big thing.