Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

Author
Discussion

devnull

Original Poster:

3,796 posts

165 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all
https://youtu.be/sD3nbWcb7VQ

Interesting insight and analysis from Bark and Jack, but the summary is that watch dealers, especially watch finder, are starting to ‘discount’ all of the sought-after models.

No skin off my nose, I bought my sub date for retail and intend to keep it forever, but I think a lot of people who bought at an inflated premium are about to be disappointed if they thought their money was 100% safe.

MechMovement

124 posts

90 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all
Watchfinder were always at the upper end of the "grey market" prices anyway, interesting move for sure but is it a sign of the overall watch market?

I believe once HK sorts itself out we will see a little more support at these prices, for sure though the dealer spread on the "hot" watches are getting smaller across Rolex and Patek. AP seems to be holding up well.


Bobajobbob

1,468 posts

104 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
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£ has recovered somewhat recently combined with HK issues, Brexit and trade wars. Surprised it didn’t happen sooner.

andy tims

5,593 posts

254 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
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Prices are still way over RRP for the popular SS Sports Rolex at the moment.

Let's see what happens, but I'm glad I didn't buy recently.

Hoofy

77,527 posts

290 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all
You mean you didn't buy the Rolex because you liked it and thought it was worth that price?? wink

andy tims

5,593 posts

254 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all
Hoofy said:
You mean you didn't buy the Rolex because you liked it and thought it was worth that price?? wink
I have, several times, just not in the last couple of years :-)

Asking prices on Chrono24 for ceramic bezel Daytona's don't seem to be dropping

bonerp

818 posts

247 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all
people need to stop supporting this overinflated market by not buying them at crazy prices.

Hoofy

77,527 posts

290 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all
bonerp said:
people need to stop supporting this overinflated market by not buying them at crazy prices.
Yep. Like with cars... or houses... it's down to the number of buyers.

Fckitdriveon

1,056 posts

98 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
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Much seems to be have been made of this Watchfinder ‘sale’ It’s Absolute hogwash , they were over priced anyway so have simply reduced their prices to fall in line with the rest of the market . There’s no crisis or panic , how people are seeing it as anything else baffles me.


Francois de La Rochefoucauld

486 posts

86 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all
Fckitdriveon said:
Much seems to be have been made of this Watchfinder ‘sale’ It’s Absolute hogwash , they were over priced anyway so have simply reduced their prices to fall in line with the rest of the market . There’s no crisis or panic , how people are seeing it as anything else baffles me.
Prime central London houses have been in decline since 2015, cars are following a similar pattern, watches will be next.

So

27,751 posts

230 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all

I am not sure if I am yet to be proved right, but I foresaw an end to the madness happening this year. Which is why I sold my modest holding of Rolex sports models prior to Christmas last year.

I figured strong market + Christmas = best price. Brexit uncertainty in 2019 = lower price.

If the decline in values continues it will be a rare accurate prediction on my part.

richthebike

1,734 posts

145 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all
Probably called that one about right.
The short supply led to fever. People are now seeing sense (in my view). The sports watches are nice tool watches, but they're not that special.
Lots of interesting stuff out there for Rolex RRP, never mind overs.

Wills2

24,486 posts

183 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all
Fckitdriveon said:
Much seems to be have been made of this Watchfinder ‘sale’ It’s Absolute hogwash , they were over priced anyway so have simply reduced their prices to fall in line with the rest of the market . There’s no crisis or panic , how people are seeing it as anything else baffles me.

Craigybaby69

487 posts

139 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
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What I don't get is how Rolex sell circa 800,000 watches a year but demand still outstrips supply....there must literally be 10's of millions of rolex's out there.

Fckitdriveon

1,056 posts

98 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
quotequote all
Wills2 said:
Fckitdriveon said:
Much seems to be have been made of this Watchfinder ‘sale’ It’s Absolute hogwash , they were over priced anyway so have simply reduced their prices to fall in line with the rest of the market . There’s no crisis or panic , how people are seeing it as anything else baffles me.
Or I m involved in the market daily and although it’s softened there’s no crash .

carphotographer

505 posts

203 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
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I missed out on buying a 16610LV for £8,500 this time last year and Watchmaster might only have one or two for sale at a time . They have eleven for sale, at silly prices all now discounted . Still way above the price last year though

AllyM

360 posts

184 months

Thursday 21st November 2019
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So said:
I am not sure if I am yet to be proved right, but I foresaw an end to the madness happening this year. Which is why I sold my modest holding of Rolex sports models prior to Christmas last year.

I figured strong market + Christmas = best price. Brexit uncertainty in 2019 = lower price.

If the decline in values continues it will be a rare accurate prediction on my part.
Given that all of the popular models are up significantly since last Xmas then I’d say your decision was ill judged. Never try to time a market, be it equities or watches.

Best just to keep watches for enjoyment.

Brads67

3,199 posts

106 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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My AD called me up the other day after I ranted via email.

I have to say the tone was not what it had been regards waiting times, likelihood of getting a watch etc.

We'll see how it goes.

abzmike

9,345 posts

114 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
quotequote all
Craigybaby69 said:
What I don't get is how Rolex sell circa 800,000 watches a year but demand still outstrips supply....there must literally be 10's of millions of rolex's out there.
Yes, the sales figures don’t really tally with the perceived exclusivity. Rolex could make plenty more of the models that at sought after, and probably put up thier RRP at the same time, but somehow resist the temptation.

GT03ROB

13,576 posts

229 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
quotequote all
Craigybaby69 said:
What I don't get is how Rolex sell circa 800,000 watches a year but demand still outstrips supply....there must literally be 10's of millions of rolex's out there.
Since I started noticing watches, I do notice a fair few about. So they are not exactly exclusive.