Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has
Discussion
Bobajobbob said:
Fair enough, my comment was just an observation on the watches that languish in dealers and the second hand market. I just struggle to understand why Rolex doesn't adjust production to make less of the watches that are less popular at the moment and more of the ones that are in demand.
You're making the assumption that those models are unpopular, but I think the reality is more nuanced.Not everyone is a watch-forum geek or seeking the latest hot stainless steel sports model for speculation purposes.
Rolex don't release sales figures, so it's admittedly hard for the likes of me to evidence, but I suspect the DateJust (in all it's varieties) is their biggest-seller.
Two-tone is a marmite thing, but somebody must buy them. And not all just to climb the greasy favour pole towards acquiring a Daytona.
I'd wager that most people walking into a dealer to buy a new Rolex are a) typically older in years, and b) only after 'a Rolex', because it is, 'a Rolex', rather than caring about the mechanicals, history etc. For those types, a gaudy DateJust in gold & steel does rather nicely.
It's true that there is always a rather large supply of them in the 2nd hand market, but I suspect that merely reflects the fact that tons of them were made in the first place. And yes, it's true they don't fly off the shelves or hold value in the same way as a steel Submariner etc.
Rolex makes a truly huge amount of wages every year, and they tend to hang-around for decades (part build-quality, part retained value), and yet you don't see Rolex following the likes of Richemont and having to buy-back & recycle nearly €500m of their own non-selling watches from dealers because they're gathering dust and in danger of going into the bargain-bin. They must sell somewhere.
So said:
Because marketing.
So has nailed it most succinctly.But if you want to understand why it's counterproductive for any brand to become a one-model, one-trick pony ('Hello, Audemars Piguet & Royal Oak!'), then have a read of this interview with Thierry Stern, explaining why Patek Philipe don't switch all their production to churn out more of their steel Nautilus: https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/thierry-stern-pa...
Clue: it's got zero to do with tooling, materials supply, staff or expertise, and everything about balancing hype, demand, exclusivity & future viability of the company. And so they should, they're a business after all, not a Charity (although Rolex, of course, is both).
[quote]You're making the assumption that those models are unpopular, but I think the reality is more nuanced.
Not everyone is a watch-forum geek or seeking the latest hot stainless steel sports model for speculation purposes.
Rolex don't release sales figures, so it's admittedly hard for the likes of me to evidence, but I suspect the DateJust (in all it's varieties) is their biggest-seller.
Two-tone is a marmite thing, but somebody must buy them. And not all just to climb the greasy favour pole towards acquiring a Daytona.
I'd wager that most people walking into a dealer to buy a new Rolex are a) typically older in years, and b) only after 'a Rolex', because it is, 'a Rolex', rather than caring about the mechanicals, history etc. For those types, a gaudy DateJust in gold & steel does rather nicely.
[/quote]
That's a fair point and you may be completely right however I have to say in my limited universe it is a younger professional demographic desiring these watches these days and they do not want the more old fashioned models. When I do see a datejust it tends to be vintage and when you look at the secondary market it tends to be flooded with bimetal models selling at a discount to steel.
Not everyone is a watch-forum geek or seeking the latest hot stainless steel sports model for speculation purposes.
Rolex don't release sales figures, so it's admittedly hard for the likes of me to evidence, but I suspect the DateJust (in all it's varieties) is their biggest-seller.
Two-tone is a marmite thing, but somebody must buy them. And not all just to climb the greasy favour pole towards acquiring a Daytona.
I'd wager that most people walking into a dealer to buy a new Rolex are a) typically older in years, and b) only after 'a Rolex', because it is, 'a Rolex', rather than caring about the mechanicals, history etc. For those types, a gaudy DateJust in gold & steel does rather nicely.
[/quote]
That's a fair point and you may be completely right however I have to say in my limited universe it is a younger professional demographic desiring these watches these days and they do not want the more old fashioned models. When I do see a datejust it tends to be vintage and when you look at the secondary market it tends to be flooded with bimetal models selling at a discount to steel.
Bobajobbob said:
That's a fair point and you may be completely right however I have to say in my limited universe it is a younger professional demographic desiring these watches these days and they do not want the more old fashioned models. When I do see a datejust it tends to be vintage and when you look at the secondary market it tends to be flooded with bimetal models selling at a discount to steel.
I do agree with you, to an extent.Whether on forums, on YouTube or in the second-hand dealers it is very much the usual suspects that are in evidence, and certainly I don't see young professionals clamouring for DateJusts.
And a DateJust, especially a two-tone one, is seen as more old-fashioned and will not hold value from new like a steel sports model.
However, someone is buying them, and in great quantity - it's just not my mates nor yours, and not the sort of people who post on Instagram with their steering-wheel in the background.
Rolex don't continually churn out the number of watches they do without them finding homes somewhere.
People on watch forums, and arguably the internet/social media in general, are only a small - if sometimes influential - part of the customer pool for watches.
Also, as a generalisation, the younger generation is less interested in watches and less able to spunk several grand on one.
Here's an interesting survey by a Home Insurance company of their Policyholders listing a Rolex as insured - like all surveys, it's not 100% infallible, but it is never-the-less interesting in some aspects: https://www.homeprotect.co.uk/discover/insights/na...
"This belief could explain why our study showed that most of the UK Rolexes are in the hands of retirees. Our study showed that the average age of the average Rolex owner is 68, with male owners outnumbering women almost two to one. Their numbers are overwhelming. 66% of the people in our survey are aged over 65 and only 1.5% under the age of 35."
Bobajobbob said:
That's a fair point and you may be completely right however I have to say in my limited universe it is a younger professional demographic desiring these watches these days and they do not want the more old fashioned models. When I do see a datejust it tends to be vintage and when you look at the secondary market it tends to be flooded with bimetal models selling at a discount to steel.
With respect you couldn’t be further from the mark. Far from being “old fashioned” wasn’t the DJ41 the second watch equipped with the chronergy escapement after the DD40?; both of which I assume you would regard as the ‘unpopular cr@p no one wants’.In fact the DJ is the bread and butter of the Rolex brand and the customers that Rolex really need to attract and retain appreciate these watches, may ultimately trade-up to DD / other pm models and needn’t overly-concern themselves with after-market values.
UnclePat said:
Bobajobbob said:
That's a fair point and you may be completely right however I have to say in my limited universe it is a younger professional demographic desiring these watches these days and they do not want the more old fashioned models. When I do see a datejust it tends to be vintage and when you look at the secondary market it tends to be flooded with bimetal models selling at a discount to steel.
I do agree with you, to an extent.Whether on forums, on YouTube or in the second-hand dealers it is very much the usual suspects that are in evidence, and certainly I don't see young professionals clamouring for DateJusts.
And a DateJust, especially a two-tone one, is seen as more old-fashioned and will not hold value from new like a steel sports model.
However, I employ young people and my Datejust 36 is noticed and envied way, way more than any of my sports/professional models ever are.
In fact I reckon most would love it even more if it was yellow or rose gold.
Don't mistake your own preferences for what the youth may want.
I sold all my sport watches, and just kept a Daetjust 36 white face, plain bezel and jubilee and bought a DJ41 with oyster and blue face.
Agreed, far, far more comments on those than any sport model.
I sold he 36mm jubilee and really wish I hadn't. Such a nice watch to wear.
Funny, last year it seemed rare to see Datejusts, unless it was an older guy and then usually the bi metal one, this year it seems so may people I know in the fashion industry have got them, and the Oyster 39mm (which I think I prefer to my DJ41).
Plus seen a few plainer Omegas and a couple of Grand Seikos too.
Maybe it is the larger form factor of the classics that has got people into them, maybe like me, after 25 years with subs and Explorer IIs just fancied a change.
Although, I wish I still had my Polar Explorer II.
Agreed, far, far more comments on those than any sport model.
I sold he 36mm jubilee and really wish I hadn't. Such a nice watch to wear.
Funny, last year it seemed rare to see Datejusts, unless it was an older guy and then usually the bi metal one, this year it seems so may people I know in the fashion industry have got them, and the Oyster 39mm (which I think I prefer to my DJ41).
Plus seen a few plainer Omegas and a couple of Grand Seikos too.
Maybe it is the larger form factor of the classics that has got people into them, maybe like me, after 25 years with subs and Explorer IIs just fancied a change.
Although, I wish I still had my Polar Explorer II.
gizlaroc said:
I sold all my sport watches, and just kept a Daetjust 36 white face, plain bezel and jubilee and bought a DJ41 with oyster and blue face.
Agreed, far, far more comments on those than any sport model.
You have good taste.Agreed, far, far more comments on those than any sport model.
My favourite watch is a white dial DJ on Jubilee. It's the only watch I own that anyone comments upon. It cost me pennies, relatively speaking.
I am also looking for a blue dial watch, which may be another DJ of some sort. Or possibly the Cartier Santos.
UnclePat said:
I do agree with you, to an extent.
Whether on forums, on YouTube or in the second-hand dealers it is very much the usual suspects that are in evidence, and certainly I don't see young professionals clamouring for DateJusts.
And a DateJust, especially a two-tone one, is seen as more old-fashioned and will not hold value from new like a steel sports model.
However, someone is buying them, and in great quantity - it's just not my mates nor yours, and not the sort of people who post on Instagram with their steering-wheel in the background.
Rolex don't continually churn out the number of watches they do without them finding homes somewhere.
People on watch forums, and arguably the internet/social media in general, are only a small - if sometimes influential - part of the customer pool for watches.
Also, as a generalisation, the younger generation is less interested in watches and less able to spunk several grand on one.
Here's an interesting survey by a Home Insurance company of their Policyholders listing a Rolex as insured - like all surveys, it's not 100% infallible, but it is never-the-less interesting in some aspects: https://www.homeprotect.co.uk/discover/insights/na...
"This belief could explain why our study showed that most of the UK Rolexes are in the hands of retirees. Our study showed that the average age of the average Rolex owner is 68, with male owners outnumbering women almost two to one. Their numbers are overwhelming. 66% of the people in our survey are aged over 65 and only 1.5% under the age of 35."
This is interesting but I suspect it may say more about those most likely to take out insurance than anything else.I can only comment only own universe where I'd say it is the 30-50 year olds who are most likely to have one.Whether on forums, on YouTube or in the second-hand dealers it is very much the usual suspects that are in evidence, and certainly I don't see young professionals clamouring for DateJusts.
And a DateJust, especially a two-tone one, is seen as more old-fashioned and will not hold value from new like a steel sports model.
However, someone is buying them, and in great quantity - it's just not my mates nor yours, and not the sort of people who post on Instagram with their steering-wheel in the background.
Rolex don't continually churn out the number of watches they do without them finding homes somewhere.
People on watch forums, and arguably the internet/social media in general, are only a small - if sometimes influential - part of the customer pool for watches.
Also, as a generalisation, the younger generation is less interested in watches and less able to spunk several grand on one.
Here's an interesting survey by a Home Insurance company of their Policyholders listing a Rolex as insured - like all surveys, it's not 100% infallible, but it is never-the-less interesting in some aspects: https://www.homeprotect.co.uk/discover/insights/na...
"This belief could explain why our study showed that most of the UK Rolexes are in the hands of retirees. Our study showed that the average age of the average Rolex owner is 68, with male owners outnumbering women almost two to one. Their numbers are overwhelming. 66% of the people in our survey are aged over 65 and only 1.5% under the age of 35."
Hang On said:
With respect you couldn’t be further from the mark. Far from being “old fashioned” wasn’t the DJ41 the second watch equipped with the chronergy escapement after the DD40?; both of which I assume you would regard as the ‘unpopular cr@p no one wants’.
In fact the DJ is the bread and butter of the Rolex brand and the customers that Rolex really need to attract and retain appreciate these watches, may ultimately trade-up to DD / other pm models and needn’t overly-concern themselves with after-market values.
I perhaps didn't articulate it very well as there are some lovely datejusts (the new blue faced one is stunning) and especially the ladies version you do see frequently however there are also some absolutely shockers that are always the watches that appear to be forever languishing in the primary and secondary dealers along with the bimetal Daytonas.In fact the DJ is the bread and butter of the Rolex brand and the customers that Rolex really need to attract and retain appreciate these watches, may ultimately trade-up to DD / other pm models and needn’t overly-concern themselves with after-market values.
LaurasOtherHalf said:
The Datejust, especially with fluted bezel (although still looks grand without) is the most recognisably Rolex watch there is in my opinion.
By comparison, my subs, explorers, daytonas etc just look like any other.
Absolutely. I’d say the Datejust is the most recognisable luxury watch in existence and certainly the most important model for Rolex.By comparison, my subs, explorers, daytonas etc just look like any other.
yellowtang said:
LaurasOtherHalf said:
The Datejust, especially with fluted bezel (although still looks grand without) is the most recognisably Rolex watch there is in my opinion.
By comparison, my subs, explorers, daytonas etc just look like any other.
Absolutely. I’d say the Datejust is the most recognisable luxury watch in existence and certainly the most important model for Rolex.By comparison, my subs, explorers, daytonas etc just look like any other.
My first Rolex (bought new in 1991).
Now worn by my daughter as it’s just a little small for me now and seemingly the right size for girls her age.
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