Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

[Voodoo Blue]

I've decided to sell a couple of my Rolexes since they've both more than doubled in value since I bought them and neither have had any wrist time for a few years. I've diversified my collection more recently and will use the proceeds to continue down that road. They may not keep their value as well but I'll get more enjoyment out of wearing them.

[Carl_Manchester]

Fckitdriveon said:

Along comes covid but 16-18 months after this thread started .....what’s happened ?! Price have continued to rise......and seem set to continue rising.

To be fair, that's what a bubble tends to do but no, it has not burst.

Does not mean there is not a bubble though.

[gregs656]

Carl_Manchester said:

Fckitdriveon said:

Along comes covid but 16-18 months after this thread started .....what’s happened ?! Price have continued to rise......and seem set to continue rising.

To be fair, that's what a bubble tends to do but no, it has not burst.

Does not mean there is not a bubble though.

Massive amount of money pumped into the economy.

[Ninjin]

I can't speak for the World economy, however my view is the local UK market will re-align when govt furlough scheme ends. Many people are still being paid 80% to sit at home. They are only being kept on because the govt is paying their wages. Once furlough ends, major restructuring of every industry is going to occur with redundancies in every corner of the economy. I think 2022 in conjunction with Brexit hopefully settled in we will see the 'new normal'.

I'll be happy to see the demand drop and for me to be able to buy again from AD's windows like we did in the days pre 2015.

[CharlesdeGaulle]

Ninjin said:

... with redundancies in every corner of the economy … I'll be happy to see the demand drop and for me to be able to buy again from AD's windows like we did in the days pre 2015.

I know I've cropped this, but the 'I'm alright Jack' sub-text is pretty unpleasant.

[okgo]

CharlesdeGaulle said:

I know I've cropped this, but the 'I'm alright Jack' sub-text is pretty unpleasant.

I'd also imagine 2500 a month is not keeping the bubble going on watches costing 3/4/5/6x that amount.

[PistonGuy66]

CharlesdeGaulle said:

Ninjin said:

... with redundancies in every corner of the economy … I'll be happy to see the demand drop and for me to be able to buy again from AD's windows like we did in the days pre 2015.

I know I've cropped this, but the 'I'm alright Jack' sub-text is pretty unpleasant.

I must be looking at a diffrent post there,as i dont see anything unpleasant in what he put??

[okgo]

PistonGuy66 said:

I must be looking at a diffrent post there,as i dont see anything unpleasant in what he put??

Happy to see widespread redundancies so he can buy some overpriced dive watch at a slightly lower rate. Not exactly comprehension of James Joyce is it.

[CharlesdeGaulle]

PistonGuy66 said:

CharlesdeGaulle said:

Ninjin said:

... with redundancies in every corner of the economy … I'll be happy to see the demand drop and for me to be able to buy again from AD's windows like we did in the days pre 2015.

I know I've cropped this, but the 'I'm alright Jack' sub-text is pretty unpleasant.

I must be looking at a diffrent post there,as i dont see anything unpleasant in what he put??

Maybe I've mis-interpreted, but I'm seeing 'the economy's going to st for everyone else but it's OK for me as I'll be able to pick up some cheaper Rolex'.

[Jamescrs]

I have got quite into watching Youtube videos of various watch "experts" and dealers, got whatever weight of credibility you want to what they are saying but theres more than a couple who are predicting that Rolex is planning long term to move away from the Steel Divers watches and plans to move more upmarket to making only precious metal and bi-metal watches to target the higher end brands.

I don't claim to know much about it at all and it may be complete rubbish but it's an interesting theory and it did make me wonder if that is the case and maybe they will manoeuvre Tudor into the space which is currently occupied by the SS Subs etc?

[Francois de La Rochefoucauld]

For what it's worth I ordered a GMT II 'Root Beer' and it arrived in a couple of weeks. Not the most popular model, but they are going for circa 50% overs on the grey market.

[Harry Flashman]

Francois de La Rochefoucauld said:

For what it's worth I ordered a GMT II 'Root Beer' and it arrived in a couple of weeks. Not the most popular model, but they are going for circa 50% overs on the grey market.

Not my experience at all, but then I have never bought a new Rolex and am unable to go into an AD right now.

I wanted this watch and was told to wait. Not fussed, but interesting difference. I stuck my name down for one and if it turns up in a couple of years, happy days.

It is, to my eyes, the nicest of the GMT Master IIs. Never liked the Batman, and whilst I like the Pepsi, I like the rose gold dial and bezel on the Rootbeer far more. Mine will be worn on a battered leather strap.

[gregs656]

Jamescrs said:

I have got quite into watching Youtube videos of various watch "experts" and dealers, got whatever weight of credibility you want to what they are saying but theres more than a couple who are predicting that Rolex is planning long term to move away from the Steel Divers watches and plans to move more upmarket to making only precious metal and bi-metal watches to target the higher end brands.

I don't claim to know much about it at all and it may be complete rubbish but it's an interesting theory and it did make me wonder if that is the case and maybe they will manoeuvre Tudor into the space which is currently occupied by the SS Subs etc?

I think Tudor sports watches are already in the space that Rolex sports watches have occupied for the vast majority of their history, or almost there. Really nice tool watches that can be worn anywhere, are a luxury purchase but totally achievable for most people who really want one and have enough discipline to save.

[Jamescrs]

gregs656 said:

I think Tudor sports watches are already in the space that Rolex sports watches have occupied for the vast majority of their history, or almost there. Really nice tool watches that can be worn anywhere, are a luxury purchase but totally achievable for most people who really want one and have enough discipline to save.

I do agree with your comments on Tudor sports watches, I was on the verge of buying a Pelagos myself when stores reopen, and still may but I think I have convinced myself that I prefer the new Seamaster 300m diver now having owned a much older version previously, thats some budget creep as I started off thinking I would buy a Tudor Blackbay!

[anonymous-user]

gregs656 said:

I think Tudor sports watches are already in the space that Rolex sports watches have occupied for the vast majority of their history, or almost there. Really nice tool watches that can be worn anywhere, are a luxury purchase but totally achievable for most people who really want one and have enough discipline to save.

Totally agree about Tudor.

Really great watches that are obtainable for most people if they really want to own a 'nice' watch.

[Ninjin]

CharlesdeGaulle said:

PistonGuy66 said:

CharlesdeGaulle said:

Ninjin said:

... with redundancies in every corner of the economy … I'll be happy to see the demand drop and for me to be able to buy again from AD's windows like we did in the days pre 2015.

I know I've cropped this, but the 'I'm alright Jack' sub-text is pretty unpleasant.

I must be looking at a diffrent post there,as i dont see anything unpleasant in what he put??

Maybe I've mis-interpreted, but I'm seeing 'the economy's going to st for everyone else but it's OK for me as I'll be able to pick up some cheaper Rolex'.

My post has been misinterpreted. I was trying to highlight that the current economic situation is not something that is sustainable and that a re-alignment will happen when the world gets back onto it's feet after covid. I live in London and maybe biased in what I see but I know a lot of people are better off with 80% furlough than with 100% pay and going into work.

Why?

Example, take someone with £30k PA
During Covid:
80% pay £24k
Zero Expenditure on: Travel to work, Holidays, Restaurants
net £24k

During Normal Time:
100% pay £30k
£2500 a year on travel to work, £2k on a holiday, £4k a year on pub and restaurants.
NET £21.5k

So on furlough in my very crude example, £2500 better off.

Not a lot in relative terms to a Rolex, but when you're bored and spend 12hours a day online, reading and watching all the hype about Rolex and the investment potential, you'll take the bait. "I can afford to overstretch my finances" as it'll make money in when I sell it!

As to picking up Rolex cheaper (I only ever buy at list from an AD) due to others misfortune, this was the last thing on my mind and I apologise if this was the message received by some people. As a watch lover, I would just like it to all go back to it was in the noughties, where you could actually like something and just go and buy it, any Brand without the need to 'relationships' or waitlists...

Edited by Ninjin on Monday 15th March 16:49

Edited by Ninjin on Monday 15th March 16:50

[TarquinMX5]

Not a lot in relative terms to a Rolex, but when you're bored and spend 12hours a day online, reading and watching all the hype about Rolex and the investment potential, you'll take the bait.

[/quote]


I think there's a degree of truth in that comment: I know three people who've bought cars (1 new, 2 classics) in the past few weeks and they all said virtually the same thing, "You can blame the lockdowns, I've spent hours just browsing the adverts, I had no intention of buying a car".

All bought sight unseen as well, also never previously done.

I see no reason why watches would be any different.

[CharlesdeGaulle]

Ninjin said:

CharlesdeGaulle said:

PistonGuy66 said:

CharlesdeGaulle said:

Ninjin said:

... with redundancies in every corner of the economy … I'll be happy to see the demand drop and for me to be able to buy again from AD's windows like we did in the days pre 2015.

I know I've cropped this, but the 'I'm alright Jack' sub-text is pretty unpleasant.

I must be looking at a diffrent post there,as i dont see anything unpleasant in what he put??

Maybe I've mis-interpreted, but I'm seeing 'the economy's going to st for everyone else but it's OK for me as I'll be able to pick up some cheaper Rolex'.

My post has been misinterpreted.

... and I apologise if this was the message received by some people.

No probs, my apologies back if I mis-represented your views.

[RMDB9]

And luckily Britain is not know for its curtain-twitching population.

[crankedup]

Took my late Mother’s Rolex along for a valuation, one of the guys that appear on telly gave it a look. It’s dated in the late 1920’s in Art Deco style. Gold case and gold (non original) strap. He explained that ladies watches are not as sought after as men’s watches, the watch is in good working condition. The auction value offered was £300 was very disappointing, not that I was selling as it will be passed onto my daughter.

Valuation was about four years ago.