Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

Author
Discussion

MrJuice

3,377 posts

157 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
Ten years ago there was one Rolex watch that sold for above list price. The Daytona. There might have been some dealers selling some others marginally above list price but that was not the norm. In those days you could buy a datejust for 15-20% discount depending on where in the UK you were buying.

I know someone who bought fifty steel Daytonas in one year, all at list price from ADs in the UK just by putting his name down on the list. He'd sell for around £1000 over list.

Same dude bought a rose gold Daytona on bond Street from an AD at -18%. Unworn, fresh from Rolex. Same watch now has a huge waiting list.

The world has gone mad.

Same dude has an AP steel skeleton. He offered it to a jeweller for 67k about two years ago. Unworn with stickers etc. That was a toppy price at the time. Today, same watch is comfortably above 100k. The watch has not changed. Same model. He bought it at 37k in Jan 2018.

Utterly bonkers

RMDB9

1,711 posts

49 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
How about some tulip bulbs?

MrJuice

3,377 posts

157 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
I think another thing fuelling this is credit and cash

Some mad people take credit to buy "luxury watches". Mad but each to their own

Other jewellers are very happy to take pound notes and BTC as payment for goods. I do wonder why anyone would have stacks and stacks of pound notes these days.

anonymous-user

55 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
MrJuice said:
I think another thing fuelling this is credit and cash

Some mad people take credit to buy "luxury watches". Mad but each to their own

Other jewellers are very happy to take pound notes and BTC as payment for goods. I do wonder why anyone would have stacks and stacks of pound notes these days.
Don't get me started on that. As you say, each to their own, and people are perfectly entitled to take out credit or loans for whatever they want, but I don't understand it. It seems crazy.

To me, a watch is a luxury treat, a reward, something you buy because you have done well and can now afford to buy such a thing, or have the spare cash. I wouldn't dream of spending £5k or £15k or whatever on watch while myself and my family were still paying a mortgage off or paying for a car. It just seems a poor use of money and self indulgent. But, I fully appreciate that despite being 41, my attitude to all that sort of thing is positively archaic, so please ignore me.

As for whether this change of buying culture has had an effect on prices, yes it has, and a few pages back I posted an interview with a guy who was a Rolex AD for 30 years. He said years ago, a Rolex was a treat, something people rewarded themselves with once they reached certain financial milestones in life. He says that all that has gone out the window now, and every 'ordinary' person now has to be seen wearing one, and they will use finance, credit, loans etc in order to try to get one on their wrist even though there is probably 50 other things in their life that they should be paying off first.

Demand has therefore gone though the roof, and has taken prices with it.

Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 19th March 14:39

NDA

21,654 posts

226 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
Nautilus pricing is crazy the moment - over £100k for a 2021 unworn watch.

A friend was lucky enough to buy a new one from a Patek dealer last year - but the pricing is now so high that he's wondering about cashing in. I don't blame him. He doesn't need the money, but nor does he need the headache of owning a watch he can't wear to work or anywhere else. It just gets to a point when selling is inevitable.

RMDB9

1,711 posts

49 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
Why cant he wear it to work??

NDA

21,654 posts

226 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
RMDB9 said:
Why cant he wear it to work??
The risk of being mugged in London..... I realise it's a small risk, but when you're wandering about London, on the tube etc, it can make you anxious.

I think twice before wearing a £20k watch in London. I definitely wouldn't wear a £100k one.

RMDB9

1,711 posts

49 months

Friday 19th March 2021
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Until recently, a 20k watch was also something you would not really wear on the tube to CanaryWharf.

philcray

846 posts

204 months

Friday 19th March 2021
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It is all down to disposable income. Many people will spend the vast majority of their income every month, as income goes up they spend more.

We've had a year when a lot of people have been earning their usual salary but not spending it on commuting, petrol, lunches, eating out, going shopping, holidays etc. Hence they have accumulated a wad of cash which is burning a hole in their pocket.

Equally they have more time to surf the net looking at fancy watches.

Hence the inflation in prices as people want to spend their cash, and £10k for a watch doesn't seem that crazy any more...

Same thing applies to the price of many other luxury items, eg some of the cars being seen on the auction websites such as Collecting Cars etc....

Man maths has also convinced many people that these watches/cars are a good investment, time will tell if that is correct.

Buster73

5,077 posts

154 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
MrJuice said:
Ten years ago there was one Rolex watch that sold for above list price. The Daytona. There might have been some dealers selling some others marginally above list price but that was not the norm. In those days you could buy a datejust for 15-20% discount depending on where in the UK you were buying.

I know someone who bought fifty steel Daytonas in one year, all at list price from ADs in the UK just by putting his name down on the list. He'd sell for around £1000 over list.

Same dude bought a rose gold Daytona on bond Street from an AD at -18%. Unworn, fresh from Rolex. Same watch now has a huge waiting list.

The world has gone mad.

Same dude has an AP steel skeleton. He offered it to a jeweller for 67k about two years ago. Unworn with stickers etc. That was a toppy price at the time. Today, same watch is comfortably above 100k. The watch has not changed. Same model. He bought it at 37k in Jan 2018.

Utterly bonkers
50 Daytona watches in one year ?

aye, of course he did.

Gazzab

21,111 posts

283 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
Buster73 said:
50 Daytona watches in one year ?

aye, of course he did.
Proof :

MrJuice

3,377 posts

157 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
Buster73 said:
50 Daytona watches in one year ?

aye, of course he did.
This was at a time when Daytonas sold for about £1000-£1500 above list price.

The second hand watch guys were paying list price or slightly above for them. So no massive demand from Joe Public for a quick buck.

I know it was 50 because I was there for every purchase. There was an art to it. You call on delivery day which would be a Friday. You catch that hungry sales guy who wants his 1% commission. You pay a deposit over the phone or pay for the whole thing over the phone. You collect when you can. If they're a national chain, you get them to post the watch to a local store and collect. They won't allow you to pay at the local store because they'll lose their commission.

These days the £12.50ph sales guys want thousands of pounds in cash to sell you a Daytona.


Jamescrs

4,498 posts

66 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
MrJuice said:
I think another thing fuelling this is credit and cash

Some mad people take credit to buy "luxury watches". Mad but each to their own

Other jewellers are very happy to take pound notes and BTC as payment for goods. I do wonder why anyone would have stacks and stacks of pound notes these days.
I think for me with the whole buying with credit thing its down to how its used and personal circumstances.

For example I'm about to buy a new Omega Seamaster (I think). I have the cash in account to go out and buy it outright and it wouldn't trouble me but ive been looking at the 0% deals and to me at least it seems a sensible alternative to pay 50% at collection and finance the other 50% at 0% over 12 months whilst keeping the cash in my account.

I do appreciate though that probably a lot of people won't do that and will pay the minimum deposit at 10% I think it is and will pay the minimum amount over 4 years which I agree is crazy.

gregs656

10,926 posts

182 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
Lots of people use credit sensibly but you don't have to be on forums for very long, particularly if it is a forum where people meet up, to notice people coming in and buying all the 'must haves' in a compressed time frame and then at some point disappearing. Then it comes out they bought everything on credit and it's all gone back to try and cover the debt.


liner33

10,702 posts

203 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
Jamescrs said:
I think for me with the whole buying with credit thing its down to how its used and personal circumstances.

For example I'm about to buy a new Omega Seamaster (I think). I have the cash in account to go out and buy it outright and it wouldn't trouble me but ive been looking at the 0% deals and to me at least it seems a sensible alternative to pay 50% at collection and finance the other 50% at 0% over 12 months whilst keeping the cash in my account.

I do appreciate though that probably a lot of people won't do that and will pay the minimum deposit at 10% I think it is and will pay the minimum amount over 4 years which I agree is crazy.
The one rule i have is never to buy a new watch on credit, always find i get a better discount when paying in full .

Buying a desirable watch like a Rolex is better than cash in the bank at the moment which in real terms is losing value due to the low rates for savers this and massive demand from the far east is what has driven Rolex and other luxury brand values up

Jamescrs

4,498 posts

66 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
liner33 said:
The one rule i have is never to buy a new watch on credit, always find i get a better discount when paying in full .

Buying a desirable watch like a Rolex is better than cash in the bank at the moment which in real terms is losing value due to the low rates for savers this and massive demand from the far east is what has driven Rolex and other luxury brand values up
I take your point re cash in the bank and desirable watches gaining value but like any purchase be it a watch or a house the increased value is only realised if you are looking at it as an investment item for future resale.

I know many people do look at watches in that way now and with good reason, I may be in a minority of buying a.watch to actually wear it but for me I buy very few watches and the ones I do are.to wear and keep so the future values aren't really relevant to me.

RMDB9

1,711 posts

49 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
Jamescrs said:
MrJuice said:
I think another thing fuelling this is credit and cash

Some mad people take credit to buy "luxury watches". Mad but each to their own

Other jewellers are very happy to take pound notes and BTC as payment for goods. I do wonder why anyone would have stacks and stacks of pound notes these days.
I think for me with the whole buying with credit thing its down to how its used and personal circumstances.

For example I'm about to buy a new Omega Seamaster (I think). I have the cash in account to go out and buy it outright and it wouldn't trouble me but ive been looking at the 0% deals and to me at least it seems a sensible alternative to pay 50% at collection and finance the other 50% at 0% over 12 months whilst keeping the cash in my account.

I do appreciate though that probably a lot of people won't do that and will pay the minimum deposit at 10% I think it is and will pay the minimum amount over 4 years which I agree is crazy.
Lets look at your example. A new Seamaster is what, 5k? So what do you gain, financially and otherwise, by going for the 0% deal instead of simply buying it?

Jamescrs

4,498 posts

66 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
RMDB9 said:
Lets look at your example. A new Seamaster is what, 5k? So what do you gain, financially and otherwise, by going for the 0% deal instead of simply buying it?
The only real gain is that I keep my cash in the bank for other things should I need it. But by the same token what am I losing by going down the 0% route and keeping the cash in the bank?

A new seamaster is 4.5k or slightly under.

RMDB9

1,711 posts

49 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
Jamescrs said:
RMDB9 said:
Lets look at your example. A new Seamaster is what, 5k? So what do you gain, financially and otherwise, by going for the 0% deal instead of simply buying it?
The only real gain is that I keep my cash in the bank for other things should I need it. But by the same token what am I losing by going down the 0% route and keeping the cash in the bank?

A new seamaster is 4.5k or slightly under.
Not you, but some people might spend the 5k otherwise, because its there.

Buster73

5,077 posts

154 months

Friday 19th March 2021
quotequote all
MrJuice said:
Buster73 said:
50 Daytona watches in one year ?

aye, of course he did.
This was at a time when Daytonas sold for about £1000-£1500 above list price.

The second hand watch guys were paying list price or slightly above for them. So no massive demand from Joe Public for a quick buck.

I know it was 50 because I was there for every purchase. There was an art to it. You call on delivery day which would be a Friday. You catch that hungry sales guy who wants his 1% commission. You pay a deposit over the phone or pay for the whole thing over the phone. You collect when you can. If they're a national chain, you get them to post the watch to a local store and collect. They won't allow you to pay at the local store because they'll lose their commission.

These days the £12.50ph sales guys want thousands of pounds in cash to sell you a Daytona.
50 Daytona’s and you were there for every purchase ?

It gets even better , never read so much rubbish on here for a long time.