Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

[Badda]

coppernorks said:

Rolex Mariner bought in 1971 for £132 worth £20K on tonight's Antique Roadshow.

Nothing spectacular about that till you find out £132 is only £1660 in todays moolah.

Did he get a bargain or are todays Rolex's vastly overpriced ?

What about houses, cars, other watches?

Oh and sort your apostrophe usage out, it's all over the place.

[TheAngryDog]

traffman said:

55palfers said:

Seems an empty Rolex box is "worth" around £160!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-9529481...

i see the Tag box is just under that , far wiser investment than the watch itself.

Hilarious. You should do stand up.

[Barchettaman]

TheAngryDog said:

traffman said:

55palfers said:

Seems an empty Rolex box is "worth" around £160!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-9529481...

i see the Tag box is just under that , far wiser investment than the watch itself.

Hilarious. You should do stand up.

Did you hear the one about the security guards at the TAG boutique in London actually being there to keep people in?

[Tony1963]

[Mezzanine]

Barchettaman said:

TheAngryDog said:

traffman said:

55palfers said:

Seems an empty Rolex box is "worth" around £160!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-9529481...

i see the Tag box is just under that , far wiser investment than the watch itself.

Hilarious. You should do stand up.

Did you hear the one about the security guards at the TAG boutique in London actually being there to keep people in?

[Jamescrs]

Hereward said:

Watchfinder have a 2019 Explorer 214270 up for £9,250. Highest I can recall seeing for the model.

I wonder if that price was set pre the latest Rolex release news last month when everyone was predicting the Explorer would be discontinued and prices would shoot up, which didn't happen in the end.

[Deep]

I've read a few pages of this thread after ages and it never fails to amuse..

I don't think people get the irony (if that's the right word) of their posts.
They're moaning that they can't walk in and buy a SS Sub/GMT etc.....but they only want that watch because of that exact reason ie that it's 'exclusive/short supply'
If it wasn't they almost definitely wouldn't want it so badly. Because let's be honest, if they just wanted a good watch then there are hundreds of other watches out there that look better, are better engineered etc.
IWC, JLC immediately spring to mind and you can just walk in and buy those or save a few thousand quid and buy a very lightly used one.

Rolex are masters at what they do imho, a fantastic business/PR model.

From what I can gather (and I could easily be wrong lol) rather than increasing supply and the bubble bursting things will go in the opposite direction. Rolex are looking to, even more than now, only supply the professional models to high spending customers. They want increased exclusivity and not less.

Add onto that the fact that the world's money printers will be running at full steam means a lot of wealthy people will be more than happy to funnel large amounts of their cash into an alternative 'currency,
That's what Rolex has become, a currency of sorts...and one that once bought can be kept away from the taxman.

Disclaimer; I don't own a Rolex watch so at present have no skin in the game

[Maximus_Meridius101]

And it’s at this point I retreat. It’s really not worth the hassle. I don’t need it, it’s absolutely not worth the hassle.

[anonymous-user]

Deep said:

I've read a few pages of this thread after ages and it never fails to amuse..

I don't think people get the irony (if that's the right word) of their posts.
They're moaning that they can't walk in and buy a SS Sub/GMT etc.....but they only want that watch because of that exact reason ie that it's 'exclusive/short supply'
If it wasn't they almost definitely wouldn't want it so badly. Because let's be honest, if they just wanted a good watch then there are hundreds of other watches out there that look better, are better engineered etc.
IWC, JLC immediately spring to mind and you can just walk in and buy those or save a few thousand quid and buy a very lightly used one.

Rolex are masters at what they do imho, a fantastic business/PR model.

From what I can gather (and I could easily be wrong lol) rather than increasing supply and the bubble bursting things will go in the opposite direction. Rolex are looking to, even more than now, only supply the professional models to high spending customers. They want increased exclusivity and not less.

Add onto that the fact that the world's money printers will be running at full steam means a lot of wealthy people will be more than happy to funnel large amounts of their cash into an alternative 'currency,
That's what Rolex has become, a currency of sorts...and one that once bought can be kept away from the taxman.

Disclaimer; I don't own a Rolex watch so at present have no skin in the game

With regards to the bit in bold, where did you read that at, because I can't see any evidence of people in this thread wanting Rolex watches because they are popular, exclusive, or in short supply.

I would hazard a guess that most posters in this thread, including myself, have been admiring and buying Rolex watches for many years, and it is only relatively recently that they have become difficult to buy.

I have absolutely no interest in what is popular or desirable, I just buy what I like. I have been buying/enjoying/selling Rolex SS models since the days of being able to buy one at a watch auction for £2-3k, or walk in an AD and get a new one for £5500.

I started admiring and lusting after Rolex sports models as a teenager, when frankly, they were only really popular with blokes of a certain age treating themselves for their 40th birthday or whatever, and I imagine many others in this thread have been similar.

I currently own 3 Rolex models (and have bought and sold others) all of which were bought in the years before the hype. I would happily buy more as I like the brand and the style of the watches, but I have no intention of behaving like a performing seal for an AD, or having my pants pulled down by a grey dealer.

People like what they like. You can't just instruct people to stop liking Rolex watches and buy something else, if Rolex is what they have admired for years then that is their preference.

I can only speak for myself, but I've started buying other brands, because the hype, the desirability, the 'exclusivity', and the short supply have all completely turned me off, and not, as you suggest, made me want a Rolex more.

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 17th May 16:58

[Fat hippo]

Deep said:

I've read a few pages of this thread after ages and it never fails to amuse..

I don't think people get the irony (if that's the right word) of their posts.
They're moaning that they can't walk in and buy a SS Sub/GMT etc.....but they only want that watch because of that exact reason ie that it's 'exclusive/short supply'
If it wasn't they almost definitely wouldn't want it so badly. Because let's be honest, if they just wanted a good watch then there are hundreds of other watches out there that look better, are better engineered etc.
IWC, JLC immediately spring to mind and you can just walk in and buy those or save a few thousand quid and buy a very lightly used one.

Rolex are masters at what they do imho, a fantastic business/PR model.

From what I can gather (and I could easily be wrong lol) rather than increasing supply and the bubble bursting things will go in the opposite direction. Rolex are looking to, even more than now, only supply the professional models to high spending customers. They want increased exclusivity and not less.

Add onto that the fact that the world's money printers will be running at full steam means a lot of wealthy people will be more than happy to funnel large amounts of their cash into an alternative 'currency,
That's what Rolex has become, a currency of sorts...and one that once bought can be kept away from the taxman.

Disclaimer; I don't own a Rolex watch so at present have no skin in the game

Good summary.
There is a price elasticity (ie an increased RRP) after which point consumers will no longer buy the watches, and by that I mean, buying precious metal or Datejusts just to get on the waiting list of a SS model.

I don’t think we are there yet - there are other countries in the world eg China and India growing middle class and whose cultures encourage them to display their wealth.

But once the point is reached, demand will tail off and I’d imagine either supply increases, or prices drop.

I suspect the realistic scenario will be you can once again walk into your AD and order a SS, perhaps with a short wait, perhaps with interest free credit as an encouragement but I suspect no discount and no reduction in RRP across the range.

In essence, it will have been a one-off shift in prices upwards, out of the reach of the ordinary man in the street

[eyebeebe]

hungry_hog said:

tbh that looks cheap compared to paying ~ 20k for a common or garden ceramic

20k?

Given the way prices have gone, I spoke with my insurer last week to see if they were able to source through their relationships a new Daytona if I needed to make a claim for either the current or previous models that we own. Turns out that they just pay out cash to the value insured minus the excess (10%). Looking at Chrono24 the only black face Daytonas available in Switzerland are new with boxes and tags and cost about £27k! I knew they had gone up in price a lot, but that‘s almost 3x RRP.

While I guess it‘s nice that they have appreciated so much (both bought at RRP), it‘s an unrealised gain and I have no plans to sell. I now need to pay for professional valuations and my insurance premiums are going to double. On top of that, in the past I was pretty blasé about wearing one and was willing to take the hit on the excess if something happened. Now I feel like they are likely to be of more interest to the wrong crowd and the excess is a bit more painful. They‘ve been on holidays all over the world, including stag dos in Eastern Europe. I‘m going to be thinking twice about where they get worn in future.

1st world problems I know.

[Deep]

Lord Marylebone said:

With regards to the bit in bold, where did you read that at, because I can't see any evidence of people in this thread wanting Rolex watches because they are popular, exclusive, or in short supply.

I would hazard a guess that most posters in this thread, including myself, have been admiring and buying Rolex watches for many years, and it is only relatively recently that they have become difficult to buy.

I have absolutely no interest in what is popular or desirable, I just buy what I like. I have been buying/enjoying/selling Rolex SS models since the days of being able to buy one at a watch auction for £2-3k, or walk in an AD and get a new one for £5500.

I started admiring and lusting after Rolex sports models as a teenager, when frankly, they were only really popular with blokes of a certain age treating themselves for their 40th birthday or whatever, and I imagine many others in this thread have been similar.

I currently own 3 Rolex models (and have bought and sold others) all of which were bought in the years before the hype. I would happily buy more as I like the brand and the style of the watches, but I have no intention of behaving like a performing seal for an AD, or having my pants pulled down by a grey dealer.

People like what they like. You can't just instruct people to stop liking Rolex watches and buy something else, if Rolex is what they have admired for years then that is their preference.

I can only speak for myself, but I've started buying other brands, because the hype, the desirability, the 'exclusivity', and the short supply have all completely turned me off, and not, as you suggest, made me want a Rolex more.

Edited by Lord Marylebone on Monday 17th May 16:58

Hi
I don't need to read it in black and white, the inference is there and it's basic human psychology.
This may not apply to you and reading your post it almost definitely doesn't.
Apologies from me for that.
However I still believe that a significant proportion of those who want these watches want them BECAUSE they are difficult to get...whether they admit that to themselves or not.

Cheers

[T6 vanman]

Not sure on Rolex but

[Maximus_Meridius101]

T6 vanman said:

Not sure on Rolex but

The snoopy / NASA / moon watch was another one on my list. However, cockery has run rampant, so no, not worth it. That said, there is a way I could get one, and Jump the queue.

Edited by Maximus_Meridius101 on Monday 17th May 17:34

[SpeckledJim]

Deep said:

Hi
I don't need to read it in black and white, the inference is there and it's basic human psychology.
This may not apply to you and reading your post it almost definitely doesn't.
Apologies from me for that.
However I still believe that a significant proportion of those who want these watches want them BECAUSE they are difficult to get...whether they admit that to themselves or not.

Cheers

This enormous thread is about a bubble, and bubbles don't grow without relative scarcity.

The watches haven't changed. What has changed is that the world now includes Instagram.

[Deep]

SpeckledJim said:

This enormous thread is about a bubble, and bubbles don't grow without relative scarcity.

The watches haven't changed. What has changed is that the world now includes Instagram.

I genuinely don't get your point.

[Barchettaman]

Deep said:

I genuinely don't get your point.

People want ‚followers‘ on Instagram.

Showing off unobtainable watches gets clicks and more followers.

At least that’s how I think it works.

[jules_s]

bds e-mailed me last week with a 'GMT Pepsi' subject line

Turns out they just wanted to confirm my bracelet choice ffs

[anonymous-user]

Deep said:

SpeckledJim said:

This enormous thread is about a bubble, and bubbles don't grow without relative scarcity.

The watches haven't changed. What has changed is that the world now includes Instagram.

I genuinely don't get your point.

What he means is that ‘regular’ Rolex buyers are still here, but what has happened is that the ability to show off on social media has made every man and his dog suddenly want one as well.

Everyone is able to show off their lifestyle via Instagram, Facebook, TicTok, and so on, it seems that watches now form a big part of wanting to show off.

I believe the younger people calling ‘Flexing’.

Essentially, you have a massive demographic of people who previously had zero interest in watches, now all wanting watches.

Once you acquire a PCP deal Range Rover Evoque, a newbuild detached house on a crippling mortgage, a holiday to Dubai, and a Gucci handbag for the wife, how else do you keep flexing on Instagram? You buy yourself a Rolex and show it off in every photo.

That doesn’t fully explain the demand of course, but it accounts for a fair chunk of it.

[PistonGuy66]

jules_s said:

bds e-mailed me last week with a 'GMT Pepsi' subject line

Turns out they just wanted to confirm my bracelet choice ffs

Hi jules,not wanting to pry but have you got your name down for your GMT with WOS group? Im only asking as that sounds a bit odd. Sorry let me explain,i know there was/is a scam were if someone had put a post on line about them on a list for a certain watch,they would get an email saying there watch was in and sent a link to pay for it which was a fake email,i think you can work out the rest!!