Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

[jules_s]

PistonGuy66 said:

Hi jules,not wanting to pry but have you got your name down for your GMT with WOS group? Im only asking as that sounds a bit odd. Sorry let me explain,i know there was/is a scam were if someone had put a post on line about them on a list for a certain watch,they would get an email saying there watch was in and sent a link to pay for it which was a fake email,i think you can work out the rest!!

Hi

No- it was an AD local to me. I'll check tomorrow but iirc it was something to do with focusing on available watches (strap dependant)

[PistonGuy66]

jules_s said:

PistonGuy66 said:

Hi jules,not wanting to pry but have you got your name down for your GMT with WOS group? Im only asking as that sounds a bit odd. Sorry let me explain,i know there was/is a scam were if someone had put a post on line about them on a list for a certain watch,they would get an email saying there watch was in and sent a link to pay for it which was a fake email,i think you can work out the rest!!

Hi

No- it was an AD local to me. I'll check tomorrow but iirc it was something to do with focusing on available watches (strap dependant)

Ok thats ok,just sounded a bit suspect! Didnt want you to get scammed!

[Deep]

Lord Marylebone said:

What he means is that ‘regular’ Rolex buyers are still here, but what has happened is that the ability to show off on social media has made every man and his dog suddenly want one as well.

Everyone is able to show off their lifestyle via Instagram, Facebook, TicTok, and so on, it seems that watches now form a big part of wanting to show off.

I believe the younger people calling ‘Flexing’.

Essentially, you have a massive demographic of people who previously had zero interest in watches, now all wanting watches.

Once you acquire a PCP deal Range Rover Evoque, a newbuild detached house on a crippling mortgage, a holiday to Dubai, and a Gucci handbag for the wife, how else do you keep flexing on Instagram? You buy yourself a Rolex and show it off in every photo.

That doesn’t fully explain the demand of course, but it accounts for a fair chunk of it.

Ah, thanks, I get it now. Luckily I don't do instagram and am not on FB either. But as you say, this can't be the whole story, it's as much a concerted effort on Rolex's part.

Like all 'bubbles' (if you want to call it that) things just need a trigger and then they run away. As soon as Rolex models got to a stage where they held their money and then were worth a small premium anybody with a few quid started pumping money into them...and then of course the premium goes up and even more people are tempted to pump their cash in...and we end up where we are.

Btw, this paragraph of yours actually made me laugh out loud. So true!


Once you acquire a PCP deal Range Rover Evoque, a newbuild detached house on a crippling mortgage, a holiday to Dubai, and a Gucci handbag for the wife, how else do you keep flexing on Instagram? You buy yourself a Rolex and show it off in every photo.

[CS Garth]

It’s interesting how brand perception is evolving. In 2002 I wanted a sub, they were in the window and I went in and bought one.

It’s been on my wrist every day since, work and holiday, been in hundreds of swimming pools and through sea swims and I didn’t give it a second thought.

Over the years I’ve had the odd comment but essentially it was a solid watch that was hewn out of granite owned for reasons of purpose and reliability rather than to say anything about me.

About 2 or 3 years ago I came to the view that it has lived its life and I would put it in the safe for my son to have as something with patina and a few memories for him when I’m pushing up daisies in hopefully a good few years.

I was surprised by the market and how the brand seems to have changed. I respect peoples choice to like the watches now but to me they seem to have become ubiquitous and become somewhat vulgar with it. They were at one time a discerning buy now they appear the complete opposite.

That said, I can’t be bothered to play the game and thought I’d be happy to pay overs from one if the resellers as none of the above matters. I’d be buying the watch for the same reason as I bought my original 20 years ago and it’s my watch, bought for me and no other reason.

However the more I thought about, the more I realised that there was a danger I’d be mistaken for the kind of person that does care deeply what others think (although if I think this way maybe I am!) and is desperate to have a Rolex to show off to other instabook types who are all faking it until they make it/fail.

All in, although I like to think I don’t care what others think, I didn’t want to be mistaken for the kind of person who wants to be seen wearing a Rolex.

Accordingly I bought a Tudor Black Bay which, despite the celebrity tie ups, gives me what I want (reliability first and foremost) but without making me feel like a conspicuous consumer/wannabe influencer

Edited by CS Garth on Monday 31st May 12:16

[anonymous-user]

I think tudor are definitely filling that ‘want a well made tool watch with a decent brand and a bit of history etc but not all the image bks’ where Rolex used to sit.

Really clever the way Rolex have managed to elevate the tudor brand and slot tudor in and put Rolex into a now higher tier.

[Deep]

El stovey said:

I think tudor are definitely filling that ‘want a well made tool watch with a decent brand and a bit of history etc but not all the image bks’ where Rolex used to sit.

Really clever the way Rolex have managed to elevate the tudor brand and slot tudor in and put Rolex into a now higher tier.

It does make me wonder whether Rolex have similar plans with Tudor ie make it so that you can't buy the 'professional' models unless you buy some of their other models first.
I don't know enough about watches to know whether this is even a possibility or whether I'm talking complete horse st lol.

On the subject of actual Rolex watches themselves a friend who has collected watches for years strongly believes that Rolex watches will become even MORE difficult to buy rather than easier.
You can sort of see that with the oyster perpetuals. Weren't these really easy to buy up until very recently?
There is now a waiting list for these and you may not get one of the sought after face colours unless you have 'history' or are lucky.

[CS Garth]

I do it find remarkable what Rolex has achieved - it feels like they have managed desirability to such an extent that what is essentially a mass produced item is valued as if it is an extremely scarce commodity. It’s genius.

I found this quite interesting, it’s from 2017. Share is by turnover - at the time it was estimated that Rolex was punting out 800k units a year.



If you stripped away the names and said which of those manufacturers has got people gagging to be added to mainly none existent waiting lists and sell for 50% plus premiums I’m not sure respondents would guess the one with the 20% market share.

It just shows the power of a) a great product and b) marketing.

[911Thrasher]

funny how in the UK people worry so much about the imagine associated to wearing a Rolex...eveywhere else it's just a nice watch, and who cares about a couple posers. Cracks me up reading about the UK Rolex bubble, shows how shallow few people are and somehow the vast majority of people seems to think it's the new rule (in the UK).

Also everywhere else other than here in the UK people talk about Tudor/Rolex cheap cousin...anywhere on the mainland no one knows what a Tudor is.

If you like a Rolex, just buy it and enjoy it...who cares about what others think, and to buy a Tudor because one doesn't want to be associated to a couple loosers posting their GMT/Sub/Daytonas on IG is simply ridiculous...or maybe you cant really afford it, and that's a different topic.

Edited by 911Thrasher on Friday 4th June 13:37

[covmutley]

I don't think it's a UK thing, it's world thing, isn't it?

Also, I stand to be corrected, but my understanding is that a lot of the increased demand is coming from East Asia, where people are getting richer quickly and status is seen to be very important, and luxury brands and what is on your wrist is very relevant to your status?

[Jamescrs]

911Thrasher said:

funny how in the UK people worry so much about the imagine associated to wearing a Rolex...eveywhere else it's just a nice watch, and who cares about a couple posers. Cracks me up reading about the UK Rolex bubble, shows how shallow few people are and somehow the vast majority of people seems to think it's the new rule (in the UK).

Also everywhere else other than here in the UK people talk about Tudor/Rolex cheap cousin...anywhere on the mainland no one knows what a Tudor is.

If you like a Rolex, just buy it and enjoy it...who cares about what others think, and to buy a Tudor because one doesn't want to be associated to a couple loosers posting their GMT/Sub/Daytonas on IG is simply ridiculous...or maybe you cant really afford it, and that's a different topic.

Edited by 911Thrasher on Friday 4th June 13:37

It's not just a UK thing at all, Rolex is seen as the watch to have especially in the far east, granted its not the same image you are referring to in your post but to say it's just seen as a nice watch simply isn't true. It's seen as something to have as a mark of success in many economies, China is a prime example of that.
It is now seen as a status symbol to many people who want to buy them

[okgo]

Weird. I could see something that was hard to get and perhaps £20-30k+ fitting that bill, but the vast majority of Rolex you see are between £5-10k and given every time I leave the house I see someone with a Sub/DJ etc, saw a kid who looked about 23 wearing a batman in Sainsburys this morning, I struggle to think it ticks that box if I'm honest. Ergo I wouldn't be worried if I was CS garth, with a sub that looks well worn I don't think anyone is thinking anything.

[Jamescrs]

okgo said:

Weird. I could see something that was hard to get and perhaps £20-30k+ fitting that bill, but the vast majority of Rolex you see are between £5-10k and given every time I leave the house I see someone with a Sub/DJ etc, saw a kid who looked about 23 wearing a batman in Sainsburys this morning, I struggle to think it ticks that box if I'm honest. Ergo I wouldn't be worried if I was CS garth, with a sub that looks well worn I don't think anyone is thinking anything.

I think in reality unless a person is into watches they don't notice what another person is wearing on their wrist, or is maybe only likely to notice if it is the latest offering by Apple or a really brash gold watch but it is what the wearer believes the image they portray is by wearing it which drives the desire.

Edit- Commontary from watch entusiasts and collectors on various Youtube channels indicates that the high prices and unavailability of the top Rolex watches (Daytona) is pushing the prices up of the less desirable models, even the DateJust now.

Edited by Jamescrs on Friday 4th June 14:46

[R Mutt]

Maximus_Meridius101 said:

T6 vanman said:

Not sure on Rolex but

The snoopy / NASA / moon watch was another one on my list. However, cockery has run rampant, so no, not worth it. That said, there is a way I could get one, and Jump the queue.

Edited by Maximus_Meridius101 on Monday 17th May 17:34

I want that but on thinking how it lacks the image of say a Daytona for the same money, to the vaguely interested in nice watches person on the street, I remember why I stick with my SMP over a Sub

[JEA1K]

911Thrasher said:

funny how in the UK people worry so much about the imagine associated to wearing a Rolex...eveywhere else it's just a nice watch, and who cares about a couple posers. Cracks me up reading about the UK Rolex bubble, shows how shallow few people are and somehow the vast majority of people seems to think it's the new rule (in the UK).

Also everywhere else other than here in the UK people talk about Tudor/Rolex cheap cousin...anywhere on the mainland no one knows what a Tudor is.

If you like a Rolex, just buy it and enjoy it...who cares about what others think, and to buy a Tudor because one doesn't want to be associated to a couple loosers posting their GMT/Sub/Daytonas on IG is simply ridiculous...or maybe you cant really afford it, and that's a different topic.

Edited by 911Thrasher on Friday 4th June 13:37

Its certainly not just a UK thing ... try buying one anywhere else in the world right now, the bubble is global.

Also, go have a read up of the US Rolex forums ... customers buying their AD's b'day and Xmas presents. I'm certain that many of them are 'trading bodily fluids' just to get on the list

[Deep]

JEA1K said:

Its certainly not just a UK thing ... try buying one anywhere else in the world right now, the bubble is global.

Also, go have a read up of the US Rolex forums ... customers buying their AD's b'day and Xmas presents. I'm certain that many of them are 'trading bodily fluids' just to get on the list

I can't give my bodily fluids away for free.

[Maxus]

CS Garth said:

It’s interesting how brand perception is evolving. In 2002 I wanted a sub, they were in the window and I went in and bought one.

It’s been on my wrist every day since, work and holiday, been in hundreds of swimming pools and through sea swims and I didn’t give it a second thought.

Over the years I’ve had the odd comment but essentially it was a solid watch that was hewn out of granite owned for reasons of purpose and reliability rather than to say anything about me.

About 2 or 3 years ago I came to the view that it has lived its life and I would put it in the safe for my son to have as something with patina and a few memories for him when I’m pushing up daisies in hopefully a good few years.

I was surprised by the market and how the brand seems to have changed. I respect peoples choice to like the watches now but to me they seem to have become ubiquitous and become somewhat vulgar with it. They were at one time a discerning buy now they appear the complete opposite.

That said, I can’t be bothered to play the game and thought I’d be happy to pay overs from one if the resellers as none of the above matters. I’d be buying the watch for the same reason as I bought my original 20 years ago and it’s my watch, bought for me and no other reason.

However the more I thought about, the more I realised that there was a danger I’d be mistaken for the kind of person that does care deeply what others think (although if I think this way maybe I am!) and is desperate to have a Rolex to show off to other instabook types who are all faking it until they make it/fail.

All in, although I like to think I don’t care what others think, I didn’t want to be mistaken for the kind of person who wants to be seen wearing a Rolex.

Accordingly I bought a Tudor Black Bay which, despite the celebrity tie ups, gives me what I want (reliability first and foremost) but without making me feel like a conspicuous consumer/wannabe influencer

Edited by CS Garth on Monday 31st May 12:16

I don't get posts like this. You've come onto a Rolex thread to say you have a Rolex, wanted to buy another Rolex (and tell us price isn't an issue), but instead bought a Tudor because you don't want others to think you care what they think about you.

So actually you ended up without the watch you really wanted because you do care what others think??

[Debaser]

The irony being nobody cares what watch you wear.

[okgo]

And my maybe rambling point was - they certainly don’t care when it’s a submariner or similar. They’re everywhere.

[Jamescrs]

R Mutt said:

I want that but on thinking how it lacks the image of say a Daytona for the same money, to the vaguely interested in nice watches person on the street, I remember why I stick with my SMP over a Sub

If the Snoopy is trading at 17-19k as per the screenshot you would have to add another 10k on top more or less to buy a Daytona now.

[ddom]

911Thrasher said:

funny how in the UK people worry so much about the imagine associated to wearing a Rolex...eveywhere else it's just a nice watch, and who cares about a couple posers. Cracks me up reading about the UK Rolex bubble, shows how shallow few people are and somehow the vast majority of people seems to think it's the new rule (in the UK).

Also everywhere else other than here in the UK people talk about Tudor/Rolex cheap cousin...anywhere on the mainland no one knows what a Tudor is.

If you like a Rolex, just buy it and enjoy it...who cares about what others think, and to buy a Tudor because one doesn't want to be associated to a couple loosers posting their GMT/Sub/Daytonas on IG is simply ridiculous...or maybe you cant really afford it, and that's a different topic.

Edited by 911Thrasher on Friday 4th June 13:37

It’s that last sentence, that as long as you have means it doesn’t matter if you’re getting rinsed, which you are with daft values of what is effectively a 3-4K watch. This inert snobbery really turns me off to Rolex. Always has.