Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has
Discussion
DoubleSix said:
I think we've entered the PH alternative reality portal where blue-collar workers commonly "treat themselves to a Rolex".
Right you are.
What I’m trying to say is that people with ordinary jobs, which is what we are talking about, used to buy Rolex watches, or have them bought for them as a special gift. Right you are.
I have certainly seen quite a number of friends of my parents with a Rolex which were bought for special occasions, and these people (now retired) were definitely policemen, firemen, office workers, teachers etc.
I’m not talking about them having a collection of Daytonas… But perhaps they would get a GMT as a 40th birthday present or to celebrate their 25th wedding anniversary and the end of their mortgage or whatever.
Whether people with these sort of jobs will still buy Rolex watches, I don’t know, as RRP prices have risen sharply.
Rolex dealers will tell you that ‘everyone’ is buying Rolex these days, which I guess is at least partly the supply and demand issue!
Lord Marylebone said:
Rolex dealers will tell you that ‘everyone’ is buying Rolex these days, which I guess is at least partly the supply and demand issue!
Ahhh, like when Mondeo man stopped chasing the GLX upgrade and chose a BMW instead as the badge of success in the staff tea room. Perhaps I should also hanker after a Rolex to keep up ;-)
HocusPocus said:
Lord Marylebone said:
Rolex dealers will tell you that ‘everyone’ is buying Rolex these days, which I guess is at least partly the supply and demand issue!
Ahhh, like when Mondeo man stopped chasing the GLX upgrade and chose a BMW instead as the badge of success in the staff tea room. Perhaps I should also hanker after a Rolex to keep up ;-)I have watched and read various interviews with Rolex dealers, and they say that years ago a Rolex was a once in a lifetime special purchase, which was obtainable by fairly ordinary people if they wanted to splash out and spend the money. The purchase was often as a reward for something, or a special gift. Sure, you used to get enthusiasts and collectors, but they were in fairly small numbers.
Now, the demographic of buyers has well and truly changed, and it is often people in their 20’s and 30’s who want one, and then they want more than one, and then they want their girlfriend to have one as well.
No one wants to work their way through to getting something nice. Or wait until their 40th birthday or retirement to get the ‘gold watch’, they want the watch on their wrist as soon as possible.
Some dealers were talking about how parents now buy them for their kids as a 16th, 18th, or 21st birthday gift. Some where even saying that well off kids in some private schools even have a collection of Rolex watches.
Now clearly wealthy kids having collections of Rolex watches is the rare exception rather than the rule, but the fact it now exists tells you a lot.
Note, I am not criticising the people who are buying the watches, they can buy whatever they please, I am just pointing out that these are some of the reasons why supply and demand for Rolex is so ‘messed up’ these days.
It’s the same as everyone wanting a Mercedes and Land Rover product the split second they can afford the payments, or the girlfriend wanting the £1500 Mulberry bag for her 21st birthday.
Everyone wants the best of the best, and they want it yesterday.
DoubleSix said:
I think we've entered the PH alternative reality portal where blue-collar workers commonly "treat themselves to a Rolex".
Right you are.
My Grandfather went into a Rolex AD in 1984 and walked out with a Datejust 16013 Steel/Gold, he was a bus driver and I think he paid about £400 in cash which would be about £1200 today at a guess.Right you are.
Edited by DoubleSix on Monday 28th June 13:22
Luxury watches have reached the level they have largely fed by cheap credit. I could go into my local Fraser Hart and walk out with a £8k watch the same day on interest free, watches like many luxury goods are far more accessible than they were.
Lord Marylebone said:
Joking aside, yes, that is exactly what is happening.
I have watched and read various interviews with Rolex dealers, and they say that years ago a Rolex was a once in a lifetime special purchase, which was obtainable by fairly ordinary people if they wanted to splash out and spend the money. The purchase was often as a reward for something, or a special gift. Sure, you used to get enthusiasts and collectors, but they were in fairly small numbers.
Now, the demographic of buyers has well and truly changed, and it is often people in their 20’s and 30’s who want one, and then they want more than one, and then they want their girlfriend to have one as well.
No one wants to work their way through to getting something nice. Or wait until their 40th birthday or retirement to get the ‘gold watch’, they want the watch on their wrist as soon as possible.
Some dealers were talking about how parents now buy them for their kids as a 16th, 18th, or 21st birthday gift. Some where even saying that well off kids in some private schools even have a collection of Rolex watches.
Now clearly wealthy kids having collections of Rolex watches is the rare exception rather than the rule, but the fact it now exists tells you a lot.
Note, I am not criticising the people who are buying the watches, they can buy whatever they please, I am just pointing out that these are some of the reasons why supply and demand for Rolex is so ‘messed up’ these days.
It’s the same as everyone wanting a Mercedes and Land Rover product the split second they can afford the payments, or the girlfriend wanting the £1500 Mulberry bag for her 21st birthday.
Everyone wants the best of the best, and they want it yesterday.
Whilst I believe we are coming at this from the same place and aren't really disagreeing on anything (we all of us know the Rolex market is silly right now), I do think you are in danger of regurgitating AD guff as fact. The stuff above is exactly what I would expect to hear from a shiny suited salesperson trying to pump the Rolex story... and your first paragraph is straight out of one of the early full-page adverts... I have watched and read various interviews with Rolex dealers, and they say that years ago a Rolex was a once in a lifetime special purchase, which was obtainable by fairly ordinary people if they wanted to splash out and spend the money. The purchase was often as a reward for something, or a special gift. Sure, you used to get enthusiasts and collectors, but they were in fairly small numbers.
Now, the demographic of buyers has well and truly changed, and it is often people in their 20’s and 30’s who want one, and then they want more than one, and then they want their girlfriend to have one as well.
No one wants to work their way through to getting something nice. Or wait until their 40th birthday or retirement to get the ‘gold watch’, they want the watch on their wrist as soon as possible.
Some dealers were talking about how parents now buy them for their kids as a 16th, 18th, or 21st birthday gift. Some where even saying that well off kids in some private schools even have a collection of Rolex watches.
Now clearly wealthy kids having collections of Rolex watches is the rare exception rather than the rule, but the fact it now exists tells you a lot.
Note, I am not criticising the people who are buying the watches, they can buy whatever they please, I am just pointing out that these are some of the reasons why supply and demand for Rolex is so ‘messed up’ these days.
It’s the same as everyone wanting a Mercedes and Land Rover product the split second they can afford the payments, or the girlfriend wanting the £1500 Mulberry bag for her 21st birthday.
Everyone wants the best of the best, and they want it yesterday.
My cynical mind believes ADs are playing a much larger part in the crazy grey market prices than an apparent demand spike from Instagram influencers and preppy rich boys. End of the day, if you sell all your SS sports to the same two or three "preferred customers" the market is gonna feel pretty thin for everyone else. If two of those three have cosy relations with grey market dealers and aren't averse to a bit of flippage then again it's not a great dynamic. Finally, if a few brown envelopes are lubricating the process it's not hard to see how we end up with subs at 11.5k.
Funnily enough, this isn't the story the ADs tell, however. It could all be driven by wannabes and try hards but I don't think so somehow. Where there's money to be made you don't have to look too hard to find underlying motivation - it's nearly always greed.
Edited by DoubleSix on Monday 28th June 15:19
DoubleSix said:
Whilst I believe we are coming at this from the same place and aren't really disagreeing on anything (we all of us know the Rolex market is silly right now), I do think you are in danger of regurgitating AD guff as fact. The stuff above is exactly what I would expect to hear from a shiny suited salesperson trying to pump the Rolex story... and your first paragraph is straight out of one of the early full-page adverts...
My cynical mind believes ADs are playing a much larger part in the crazy grey market prices than an apparent demand spike from Instagram influencers preppy rich boys.
It is absolutely entirely possible that I am spouting AD and Grey Dealer guff, I agree fully on that point. I was merely reiterating what AD/Grey dealers have been saying over the last 3 or more years.My cynical mind believes ADs are playing a much larger part in the crazy grey market prices than an apparent demand spike from Instagram influencers preppy rich boys.
But, I’m not sure how AD’s are playing a part in grey/used market prices, as surely that is just pure supply and demand?
The AD’s are absolutely using the supply and demand issue to their advantage buy telling people that they have to buy a load of tat they don’t really want in order to buy a Daytona or whatever, and they couldn’t do that if Daytona’s were simply on display in the window.
While we are at it, let us assume AD’s are selling all the stock they can get their hands on, because why wouldn’t they?
The high grey/used market prices are being driven by the fact that the AD’s are all sold out of everything continuously, thus forcing the public to buy grey/used, supply and demand then dictates the high prices as there is 3 or 4 people (or whatever) chasing each watch on the grey market.
I’m happy to be wrong about any and all of that, but would be interested to know to your best guess as to how AD’s are causing, or influencing, high grey/used prices?
Well, it's like I suggest above imo - the ADs are feigning innocence whilst fanning the flames of the fire.
The choice of who they are selling to is their's to make and the fact that the watches are available to buy on the GM with warranty cards for "June 2021" says it all as far as I'm concerned.
I don't believe a word of the ADs claims they want the watches in the hands of genuine buyers... I believe the waiting lists are pure fiction... and without making outright accusations I can't support, I don't believe you have to follow the trail of crumbs very far to uncover questionable practices.
Meanwhile, they hold up their hands and spin a story of "a new generation of buyers" and "unprecedented demand for our illustrious product"... what else are they going to say: "yeah, met Fat Tony on Sat, split the diff on the sub so that's the holiday paid for".
The choice of who they are selling to is their's to make and the fact that the watches are available to buy on the GM with warranty cards for "June 2021" says it all as far as I'm concerned.
I don't believe a word of the ADs claims they want the watches in the hands of genuine buyers... I believe the waiting lists are pure fiction... and without making outright accusations I can't support, I don't believe you have to follow the trail of crumbs very far to uncover questionable practices.
Meanwhile, they hold up their hands and spin a story of "a new generation of buyers" and "unprecedented demand for our illustrious product"... what else are they going to say: "yeah, met Fat Tony on Sat, split the diff on the sub so that's the holiday paid for".
Sustaining an artificial bubble is the Rolex business model, because it controls supply and pricing. Slightly excessive demand creates steady residuals, and prolonged slight under-supply encourages the bubble. Do not imagine that Rolex's MBA laden marketing teams have not cottoned onto this and milked it to max out EBITDA performance.
There you go. From humour to cynicism in 2 posts.
There you go. From humour to cynicism in 2 posts.
paulguitar said:
Well, I'd consider myself a man in the street and I used to wear Rolex and can no longer justify it because they now occupy a completely different price point.
That simple really.
It would have been even simpler if you’d said ‘too expensive’. That simple really.
Occupy a completely different price point? You Wally.
DoubleSix said:
Well, it's like I suggest above imo - the ADs are feigning innocence whilst fanning the flames of the fire.
The choice of who they are selling to is their's to make and the fact that the watches are available to buy on the GM with warranty cards for "June 2021" says it all as far as I'm concerned.
I don't believe a word of the ADs claims they want the watches in the hands of genuine buyers... I believe the waiting lists are pure fiction... and without making outright accusations I can't support, I don't believe you have to follow the trail of crumbs very far to uncover questionable practices.
Meanwhile, they hold up their hands and spin a story of "a new generation of buyers" and "unprecedented demand for our illustrious product"... what else are they going to say: "yeah, met Fat Tony on Sat, split the diff on the sub so that's the holiday paid for".
I agree. The fact that with enough $$$$$ you can easily buy effectively brand new, unworn complete sets (in some cases still fully stickered!) of any flavor Rolex shows that there are *clearly* numerous AD’s that are absolutely in cahoots with GM dealers, so are complicit in the manipulation of the market. You’d be totally naive to believe anything different, despite what the “official line” may be. The choice of who they are selling to is their's to make and the fact that the watches are available to buy on the GM with warranty cards for "June 2021" says it all as far as I'm concerned.
I don't believe a word of the ADs claims they want the watches in the hands of genuine buyers... I believe the waiting lists are pure fiction... and without making outright accusations I can't support, I don't believe you have to follow the trail of crumbs very far to uncover questionable practices.
Meanwhile, they hold up their hands and spin a story of "a new generation of buyers" and "unprecedented demand for our illustrious product"... what else are they going to say: "yeah, met Fat Tony on Sat, split the diff on the sub so that's the holiday paid for".
The AD’s are laughing their arses off at the morons buying crap they don’t want whilst fellating them, in exchange for the pathetic hope that they’ll one day get “the call” for something that’s actually in demand.
Edited by dvs_dave on Monday 28th June 17:39
Badda said:
It would have been even simpler if you’d said ‘too expensive’.
Occupy a completely different price point? You Wally.
WTF Occupy a completely different price point? You Wally.
The reason I didn't write that was that it is not what I meant. A 'different price point' is exactly what I meant to say.
That's why I said 'a different price point', and not 'too expensive'.
Impressive bellendery, well done.
Edited by paulguitar on Monday 28th June 17:41
DoubleSix said:
I think we've entered the PH alternative reality portal where blue-collar workers commonly "treat themselves to a Rolex".
Right you are.
That's exactly what happened though isn't it? I mean, there are famous examples of this, like the guy who bought his Paul Newman as a treat for him self while in the military and never wore it. Cost him a months wages at the time, a significant purchase but do able if you wanted to.Right you are.
Edited by DoubleSix on Monday 28th June 13:22
I can think of a handful of examples in my family and friends which are not so famous.
gregs656 said:
DoubleSix said:
I think we've entered the PH alternative reality portal where blue-collar workers commonly "treat themselves to a Rolex".
Right you are.
That's exactly what happened though isn't it? I mean, there are famous examples of this, like the guy who bought his Paul Newman as a treat for him self while in the military and never wore it. Cost him a months wages at the time, a significant purchase but do able if you wanted to.Right you are.
Edited by DoubleSix on Monday 28th June 13:22
I can think of a handful of examples in my family and friends which are not so famous.
The Moose said:
Saweep said:
I've just, a few mins ago, been offered a WG YM42 on rubber and a steel and rose `YM44 for immediate collection by an AD I have never purchased anything from.
Quite fancy the WG.
Decent inflation hedge?
It's a pretty awesome watch!!Quite fancy the WG.
Decent inflation hedge?
I phoned my usual AD salesperson and told them that the local Goldsmiths had offered me these two watches and asked them what they could do.
"If you don't buy them (ie spend £45k with a competitor) and come and see me as soon as you can, we can draw up a list and you can have whatever you want, ASAP" was the reply.
ASAP last time, for a Sub, turned out to be 48 hours.
It really is a load of nonsense but I will play anyway.
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