Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has
Discussion
I think the Ferrari example isn’t really the same. Ferrari are right up at the top of the price range whereas Rolex (at least the ‘desirable’ stainless steel ones) aren’t. There are plenty of (significantly) more expensive watches available which are af least as accurate, at least as well made and at least as hard-wearing and often more interesting then a Rolex.
It’s more like a weird world where Audi S and RS models are impossible to get hold of without buying 4 A1 and A3 cars first - and they can be flipped for massive profit whilst you can get a 911 with a 2 month build time.
It’s more like a weird world where Audi S and RS models are impossible to get hold of without buying 4 A1 and A3 cars first - and they can be flipped for massive profit whilst you can get a 911 with a 2 month build time.
SpeckledJim said:
bordseye said:
Pro Bono said:
It's far too late for that. As this thread vividly demonstrates, Rolexes have now become irrevocably tarnished with the image of the people who are now buying them at a premium and `flexing' them.
It's a great shame for those of us who have owned a Rolex for decades during which time they only attracted occasional interest from genuine watch enthusiasts. Rolex has always been a respected brand, but rather like Burberry a few years back the brand is now in serious danger of becoming an embarrassment because of its association with rappers, influencers etc.
Some truth in thisIt's a great shame for those of us who have owned a Rolex for decades during which time they only attracted occasional interest from genuine watch enthusiasts. Rolex has always been a respected brand, but rather like Burberry a few years back the brand is now in serious danger of becoming an embarrassment because of its association with rappers, influencers etc.
There are some reasonable, normal Rolex owners out there, but good grief they're thinly diluted now.
Harry Flashman said:
That looks like guff written by a 10 year old. Poor punctuation, swapping between pronouns and perspectives randomly, plus:
"company house"
"field team leader"
"super high demand model"
Right. If someone wrote me a covering letter on official business similar to the above, I would dismiss them as an incompetent. I imagine that the world's most famous watch company could hire a corporate communications department not staffed by infants?
It was supposedly leaked from an AD group, not Rolex."company house"
"field team leader"
"super high demand model"
Right. If someone wrote me a covering letter on official business similar to the above, I would dismiss them as an incompetent. I imagine that the world's most famous watch company could hire a corporate communications department not staffed by infants?
Lord Marylebone said:
We have talked about all this quite a lot in this thread over the past year or so, and the consensus is that Rolex cannot easily solve the supply issue.
They absolutely cannot subcontract out the building of watches as most people would be outraged and it would damage their reputation. Can you imagine spending £8k or whatever to buy a Chinese made Rolex? Never going to happen. The 'made in Switzerland' bit is extremely important.
Their Swiss factories are flat out, and I imagine building an additional watchmaking facility complete with another couple of thousand skilled and time-served technicians/watchmakers isn't something you can do in a hurry. They already have 4 Swiss factories producing nearly 1 million watches per year, so I think it is a little unrealistic to expect them to start building a new factory as soon as there is a demand boom.
If demand dropped, they wouldn't want to have an extra factory sat empty.
Increasing prices is something they have done steadily for years, and again, I doubt they will want to go too far with that in case demand does tail off and they are left with watches for sale that are too expensive.
(unless of course they are positioning Rolex to be a super-premium brand starting at £10k minimum and letting Tudor completely take over the £3-10k end of things. But that is another debate)
The current rrp is too low as indicated by the current grey market prices, move the rrp that level and reward the dealers that invest heavily in the brand with extra margin.They absolutely cannot subcontract out the building of watches as most people would be outraged and it would damage their reputation. Can you imagine spending £8k or whatever to buy a Chinese made Rolex? Never going to happen. The 'made in Switzerland' bit is extremely important.
Their Swiss factories are flat out, and I imagine building an additional watchmaking facility complete with another couple of thousand skilled and time-served technicians/watchmakers isn't something you can do in a hurry. They already have 4 Swiss factories producing nearly 1 million watches per year, so I think it is a little unrealistic to expect them to start building a new factory as soon as there is a demand boom.
If demand dropped, they wouldn't want to have an extra factory sat empty.
Increasing prices is something they have done steadily for years, and again, I doubt they will want to go too far with that in case demand does tail off and they are left with watches for sale that are too expensive.
(unless of course they are positioning Rolex to be a super-premium brand starting at £10k minimum and letting Tudor completely take over the £3-10k end of things. But that is another debate)
Demand will still be there but at a more manageable level so not to antagonise the customer base as is happening at the moment.
Buster73 said:
The current rrp is too low as indicated by the current grey market prices, move the rrp that level and reward the dealers that invest heavily in the brand with extra margin.
Demand will still be there but at a more manageable level so not to antagonise the customer base as is happening at the moment.
That's a fair point. Is it reasonable for Rolex to manipulate their market such that they and their end customers make huge profits, but the AD, having invested and committed, is the only party who isn't allowed to take the spare money off the table?Demand will still be there but at a more manageable level so not to antagonise the customer base as is happening at the moment.
SpeckledJim said:
That's a fair point. Is it reasonable for Rolex to manipulate their market such that they and their end customers make huge profits, but the AD, having invested and committed, is the only party who isn't allowed to take the spare money off the table?
I strongly suspect its some of the AD's who feed the grey market and earn a bit extraKickstart said:
SpeckledJim said:
That's a fair point. Is it reasonable for Rolex to manipulate their market such that they and their end customers make huge profits, but the AD, having invested and committed, is the only party who isn't allowed to take the spare money off the table?
I strongly suspect its some of the AD's who feed the grey market and earn a bit extraI don't blame them either. If I had a good customer who'll quietly give me £2000 in cash if I sell him a watch he doesn't need, and another customer who won't give me anything if I sell him a watch he doesn't need, then it's not the world's toughest decision, is it?
I mean, it's not food and shelter is it? It's totally unnecessary luxury b
ks. Let them make hay.The mention of Ferraris brings to mind 1991, when the collector's car market crashed big time. My E-type was valued at £25,000 in 1989, £75,000 in 1990, and back to £25,000 in 1992. Which is when I bought a 348TS, one that had been ordered by someone in 1990 with a £25,000 deposit, hoping to make a killing, and which Daddy had to buy to bail his son out a year later. I bought the car with 458 miles on the clock in 1992 for £52,000, a loss of about £25,000 on the new price. Rolex owners beware; one never knows when that fateful bell will ring.
Edited by lowdrag on Wednesday 29th September 06:00
Lord Marylebone said:
(unless of course they are positioning Rolex to be a super-premium brand starting at £10k minimum and letting Tudor completely take over the £3-10k end of things. But that is another debate)
However you have a point. It doesnt make sense if Rolex really feel they cannot expand volume to be producing the watches at the bottom end of their range. The fixed cost per watch will be the same throughout the range so the margin will be way greater on a 30k watch than on a 5k one.
Interesting business problem.
lowdrag said:
The mention of Ferraris brings to mind 1991, when the collector's car market crashed big time. My E-type was valued at £25,000 in 1989, £75,000 in 1990, and back to £25,000 in 1992. Which is when I bought a 348TS, one that had been ordered by someone in 1990 with a £25,000 deposit, hoping to make a killing, and which Daddy had to buy to bale his son out a year later. I bought the car with 458 miles on the clock in 1992 for £52,000, a loss of about £25,000 on the new price. Rolex owners beware; one never knows when that fateful bell will ring.
I totally concur with your post.The average social media Rolex flexer is not old enough to have experienced the bad times. Hence their stupid confidence in buying a Rolex at 100% above RRP is a good deal and still has room to increase in value.
DoubleSix said:
number2 said:
Legacywr said:
Legacywr said:
Anybody? Sometimes this needs to be a sensible forum… surely?
You won't have to cross the hallowed threshold of a Rolex dealer, or cross paths with a Rolex shop assistant. Or wait. That's got to be worth a few k. Overall, a bargain.
Just double check the sizing on each side of the OysterFlex to ensure it hasn’t been ordered with something weird.
Edited by DoubleSix on Monday 27th September 13:31
Edited by DoubleSix on Monday 27th September 13:32
Precious metals (PM) Rolex have not traditionally been a good place to park money if that’s what you mean. However, as this thread illustrates, these are not ordinary times and many ‘unloved’ areas of the market are seeing interest.
The premium over RRP is your best guide to demand.
For me, the 126655 is a compelling proposition. The introduction of the GlideLock together with the OysterFlex and a new movement all come together to make it pretty unique in the range. For me it walks a nice line between sports and dress. I love it, but I’m not interested in re-sale values - I buy what I like.
Oh btw - there’s one £500 cheaper on C24
The premium over RRP is your best guide to demand.
For me, the 126655 is a compelling proposition. The introduction of the GlideLock together with the OysterFlex and a new movement all come together to make it pretty unique in the range. For me it walks a nice line between sports and dress. I love it, but I’m not interested in re-sale values - I buy what I like.
Oh btw - there’s one £500 cheaper on C24
Edited by DoubleSix on Tuesday 28th September 22:24
bordseye said:
Lord Marylebone said:
(unless of course they are positioning Rolex to be a super-premium brand starting at £10k minimum and letting Tudor completely take over the £3-10k end of things. But that is another debate)
However you have a point. It doesnt make sense if Rolex really feel they cannot expand volume to be producing the watches at the bottom end of their range. The fixed cost per watch will be the same throughout the range so the margin will be way greater on a 30k watch than on a 5k one.
Interesting business problem.
From what I've heard Rolex are planning to take the brand further up market with an average price closer to AP and Vacheron etc. The way they may look to do this is to concentrate on producing more bi-metal and precious metal pieces and less lower end Stainless pieces. Conversely this will probably inflate the secondary market prices for Stainless watches even further if production is reduced a bit like has happened with Patek.
DoubleSix said:
Precious metals (PM) Rolex have not traditionally been a good place to park money if that’s what you mean. However, as this thread illustrates, these are not ordinary times and many ‘unloved’ areas of the market are seeing interest.
The premium over RRP is your best guide to demand.
For me, the 126655 is a compelling proposition. The introduction of the GlideLock together with the OysterFlex and a new movement all come together to make it pretty unique in the range. For me it walks a nice line between sports and dress. I love it, but I’m not interested in re-sale values - I buy what I like.
Oh btw - there’s one £500 cheaper on C24
I could have bought a brand new Platinum Daytona years ago for £23k iirc , turned it down as I thought it looked too similar to the steel version.The premium over RRP is your best guide to demand.
For me, the 126655 is a compelling proposition. The introduction of the GlideLock together with the OysterFlex and a new movement all come together to make it pretty unique in the range. For me it walks a nice line between sports and dress. I love it, but I’m not interested in re-sale values - I buy what I like.
Oh btw - there’s one £500 cheaper on C24
Edited by DoubleSix on Tuesday 28th September 22:24
Hindsight…..
Buster73 said:
I could have bought a brand new Platinum Daytona years ago for £23k iirc , turned it down as I thought it looked too similar to the steel version.
Hindsight…..
I bought in October 2018 @ £39,000, Sold for £44,000 and I see they are now fetching £125k at grey dealers. Hindsight…..
Madness how it has moved so dramatically in 36 months.
Futureologist said:
I bought in October 2018 @ £39,000, Sold for £44,000 and I see they are now fetching £125k at grey dealers.
Madness how it has moved so dramatically in 36 months.
not fetching, "being advertised at" is more accurate, the car market is the same at the minute, loads of stuff being advertised at stupid money but with no buyersMadness how it has moved so dramatically in 36 months.
Nano2nd said:
Futureologist said:
I bought in October 2018 @ £39,000, Sold for £44,000 and I see they are now fetching £125k at grey dealers.
Madness how it has moved so dramatically in 36 months.
not fetching, "being advertised at" is more accurate, the car market is the same at the minute, loads of stuff being advertised at stupid money but with no buyersMadness how it has moved so dramatically in 36 months.
Edited by Fckitdriveon on Saturday 2nd October 20:00
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