Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has
Discussion
Adrian W said:
but remember it isn't an allocation, the list is merely an expression of interest,
Will be interesting to see if Goldsmiths ever call me about the Pepsi.
Still waiting for them to called about a couple of Tudor pieces. Will be interesting to see if Goldsmiths ever call me about the Pepsi.
I put my name down on a couple on the basis ill buy whichever comes up first.
They offered me a Pelagos FXD but said I needed to go to the boutique in White City and I have no immediate plans to travel to London.
Mate tried recently to sell a high value watch to WF, was told that they won't buy anything over 30k without a buyer to immediately sell it to!
Does make me chuckle, I'm looking forward to being able to attempt to get the next gen steel daytona at RRP relatively easily when it launches next year!
Does make me chuckle, I'm looking forward to being able to attempt to get the next gen steel daytona at RRP relatively easily when it launches next year!
Pflanzgarten said:
Prices are still above what they were last year, for most models.
A dip from the beginning of this year but I personally don’t see it, what I do see is a lot of posts (not just on PH) talking up the market crash.
I have a sneaky suspicion this is those with sour grapes wishing ill on those who’ve made money.
The fact that a Datejust is still selling at auction (which is always cheaper than a “trusted” bricks and mortar shop and will always be seen as a risky purchase by a large %) is proof the market is still healthy. A Datejust!
I think the vast majority of people who enjoy buying and owning watches are not interested in making money.A dip from the beginning of this year but I personally don’t see it, what I do see is a lot of posts (not just on PH) talking up the market crash.
I have a sneaky suspicion this is those with sour grapes wishing ill on those who’ve made money.
The fact that a Datejust is still selling at auction (which is always cheaper than a “trusted” bricks and mortar shop and will always be seen as a risky purchase by a large %) is proof the market is still healthy. A Datejust!
It isn’t sour grapes about not making money, it’s more like slight despair that over the past 4 years, the simple and previously enjoyable world of collecting watches has exploded into some revolting money grabbing exercise. A Ponzi scheme. People who don’t really care about owning these watches, buying up loads of them purely to make more cash. Thousands of watches being hoarded in safes and deposit boxes, and never even having the stickers taken off them. Watches being treated as ‘investments’ rather than just simply watches.
It has all just become so grubby, and the watch world isn’t talking about horology anymore, it is just talking incessantly about value.
If I cashed in and sold up a few months ago when things were peaking and still in a frenzy, I could have made the thick end of £20k profit selling 3 of my watches, but you know what? I hope the absolute arse falls out of the market and out of my watches, and they end up being worth £4K or £5k each.
I have no interest in making money from watches and I just want to wear and enjoy them, and continue to buy more of them, of various brands and values.
That would suit me just fine. Ordinary people would be back to buying, selling, owning, wearing, and enjoying watches without the prospect of being laughed out of AD’s or having to sink £25k into buying an ordinary mass produced watch that needs to be kept in a safe, insured, and only worn in areas where you won’t be mugged.
Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 24th June 10:00
Pflanzgarten said:
Prices are still above what they were last year, for most models.
A dip from the beginning of this year but I personally don’t see it, what I do see is a lot of posts (not just on PH) talking up the market crash.
I have a sneaky suspicion this is those with sour grapes wishing ill on those who’ve made money.
The fact that a Datejust is still selling at auction (which is always cheaper than a “trusted” bricks and mortar shop and will always be seen as a risky purchase by a large %) is proof the market is still healthy. A Datejust!
Re values I guess it depends where you look and imho kinda pointless looking at offer prices on C24 and WF. As far as I can see not much appears to be selling at what are, in this current climate, over inflated prices.A dip from the beginning of this year but I personally don’t see it, what I do see is a lot of posts (not just on PH) talking up the market crash.
I have a sneaky suspicion this is those with sour grapes wishing ill on those who’ve made money.
The fact that a Datejust is still selling at auction (which is always cheaper than a “trusted” bricks and mortar shop and will always be seen as a risky purchase by a large %) is proof the market is still healthy. A Datejust!
On the other hand most watches are selling, when the meet reserve, on WC in auctions for considerably less.
I guess this just highlights the fact that watches are very illiquid as the ‘spread’ between auction bid and WF/C24 offer is ~30/40%.
Buy a watch because you love the look of it, enjoy wearing it and as long as you time things right or buy from an AD a Rolex, over time, will probably make you some £.
Get sucked into all the hype and pay 3-4 times over AD retail price and you’re playing a dangerous game/ might as well gamble on Bitcoin…….the bid/offer is not 30% it just occasionally moves that much in a day!
X
Lord Marylebone said:
I think the vast majority of people who enjoy buying and owning watches are not interested in making money.
It isn’t sour grapes about not making money, it’s more like slight despair that over the past 4 years, the simple and previously enjoyable world of collecting watches has exploded into some revolting money grabbing exercise. A Ponzi scheme. People who don’t really care about owning these watches, buying up loads of them purely to make more cash. Thousands of watches being hoarded in safes and deposit boxes, and never even having the stickers taken off them. Watches being treated as ‘investments’ rather than just simply watches.
It has all just become so grubby, and the watch world isn’t talking about horology anymore, it is just talking incessantly about value.
If I cashed in and sold up a few months ago when things were peaking and still in a frenzy, I could have made the thick end of £20k profit selling 3 of my watches, but you know what? I hope the absolute arse falls out of the market and out of my watches, and they end up being worth £4K or £5k each.
I have no interest in making money from watches and I just want to wear and enjoy them, and continue to buy more of them, of various brands and values.
That would suit me just fine. Ordinary people would be back to buying, selling, owning, wearing, and enjoying watches without the prospect of being laughed out of AD’s or having to sink £25k into buying an ordinary mass produced watch that needs to be kept in a safe, insured, and only worn in areas where you won’t be mugged.
Nicely sums up my own position.It isn’t sour grapes about not making money, it’s more like slight despair that over the past 4 years, the simple and previously enjoyable world of collecting watches has exploded into some revolting money grabbing exercise. A Ponzi scheme. People who don’t really care about owning these watches, buying up loads of them purely to make more cash. Thousands of watches being hoarded in safes and deposit boxes, and never even having the stickers taken off them. Watches being treated as ‘investments’ rather than just simply watches.
It has all just become so grubby, and the watch world isn’t talking about horology anymore, it is just talking incessantly about value.
If I cashed in and sold up a few months ago when things were peaking and still in a frenzy, I could have made the thick end of £20k profit selling 3 of my watches, but you know what? I hope the absolute arse falls out of the market and out of my watches, and they end up being worth £4K or £5k each.
I have no interest in making money from watches and I just want to wear and enjoy them, and continue to buy more of them, of various brands and values.
That would suit me just fine. Ordinary people would be back to buying, selling, owning, wearing, and enjoying watches without the prospect of being laughed out of AD’s or having to sink £25k into buying an ordinary mass produced watch that needs to be kept in a safe, insured, and only worn in areas where you won’t be mugged.
Edited by Lord Marylebone on Friday 24th June 10:00
Nomal said:
Anyone watch Million Pound Pawn last night some guy sold his collection of mainly Steel Sports watches , acquired over the last 6 years at a cost of £260k the dealer offered to purchase outright for £520k I wonder when this was filmed !!!
Yeah. Incredible that the chap was like “you happy with that?” And the punter was all “yes!!”No due diligence, no totting up against market values. Yes, it’s a large sum but I suspect if he had added all those up individually he would realise he was having his trousers pulled down…
Jamescrs said:
Still waiting for them to called about a couple of Tudor pieces.
I put my name down on a couple on the basis ill buy whichever comes up first.
They offered me a Pelagos FXD but said I needed to go to the boutique in White City and I have no immediate plans to travel to London.
Not sure where you’re based but you could try the Tudor boutique in Sheffield (Meadowhall). I spoke to the guy working in there a few weeks ago. He said they could order any model, and the only significant waiting times were the black and white GMTs and the new BB58 GMT. They have Pelagos FXD on display there but not sure if it’s “display-only”. I put my name down on a couple on the basis ill buy whichever comes up first.
They offered me a Pelagos FXD but said I needed to go to the boutique in White City and I have no immediate plans to travel to London.
si
800 said:
800 said:Pflanzgarten said:
A dip from the beginning of this year but I personally don’t see it, what I do see is a lot of posts (not just on PH) talking up the market crash.
Genuinely surprised that you wouldn't see a 50% price drop in 2 months as a crash - what would have to happen for you to see it? DoubleSix said:
Nomal said:
Anyone watch Million Pound Pawn last night some guy sold his collection of mainly Steel Sports watches , acquired over the last 6 years at a cost of £260k the dealer offered to purchase outright for £520k I wonder when this was filmed !!!
Yeah. Incredible that the chap was like “you happy with that?” And the punter was all “yes!!”No due diligence, no totting up against market values. Yes, it’s a large sum but I suspect if he had added all those up individually he would realise he was having his trousers pulled down…
si800 said:
800 said:Pflanzgarten said:
A dip from the beginning of this year but I personally don’t see it, what I do see is a lot of posts (not just on PH) talking up the market crash.
Genuinely surprised that you wouldn't see a 50% price drop in 2 months as a crash - what would have to happen for you to see it? Please post up all these Subs, Rootbeers, Hulks, Batman's and Daytonas that are 50% lower than 2 months ago.
Please don't use the platinum watches or the Tiffany's as an example.
Someone posted about the James Cameron Deepsea going for near £8k + fees on watch collecting as a 'sign'; it had no papers and was located in Namibia.
I mean really?! Your going to base prices on that?
Watch Collecting is an auction site just like its sister Collecting Cars.
No comeback, no protected payments such as credit cards etc etc.
They do due diligence, but have no liability if it goes wrong.
Still a good site though; I sold a Daytona on there, but whomever buys has to have the full readies to go into Escrow and cross their fingers.
Only a small % choose that over chrono24 etc where you can pay by credit card, finance etc with all guarantees in place.
Even at that, on WC, the most recent 'batman' and 'Starbucks' both went through around £16k + fees; thats a near 100% mark up on list of £8400 and £8500 respectively.
These were 'worn' watches a few years old; not brand new instant flip which obviously attract a higher premium.
The market has cooled, but spouting non sense about 50% less than 2 months ago and these shall be back to list shortly makes anybody posting that look a bit daft and grasping at straws, especially on near every post made.
If at some point the time comes again when you can pop into an AD and leave with your watch of choice, a good % of the posters on here shall find the desire to own one has somehow dissipated as they missed the instant 'double your money' scenario.
Has the bubble burst; no.
Has it deflated slightly; yes.
Will you be able to walk into an AD and pick from a selection of batman, daytona, rootbeer, Starbucks etc and walk out with it at rrp anytime in the next 18-24mths; no.
TeaNoSugar said:
Not sure where you’re based but you could try the Tudor boutique in Sheffield (Meadowhall). I spoke to the guy working in there a few weeks ago. He said they could order any model, and the only significant waiting times were the black and white GMTs and the new BB58 GMT. They have Pelagos FXD on display there but not sure if it’s “display-only”.
I live in Leeds so I'll have a drive down next week on my day off. Thanks for that. Explorer is one im after but also interested in the new bi metal GMT and the black face Chrono
Wheelspinning said:
Please post up all these Subs, Rootbeers, Hulks, Batman's and Daytonas that are 50% lower than 2 months ago.
There are dozens of examples of watches that have dropped 20%-50%....I don't think anyone said every single Hulk and Sub specifically has dropped by half....Wheelspinning said:
Someone posted about the James Cameron Deepsea going for near £8k + fees on watch collecting as a 'sign'; it had no papers and was located in Namibia.
I mean really?! Your going to base prices on that?
Namibia is a stretch, granted. But what people are ACTUALLY paying for watches rather than what they are being advertised at is far more indicative of where the market is. I mean really?! Your going to base prices on that?
Wheelspinning said:
Even at that, on WC, the most recent 'batman' and 'Starbucks' both went through around £16k + fees; thats a near 100% mark up on list of £8400 and £8500 respectively.
Something being more than list price doesn't mean it hasn't dropped from where it was? Wheelspinning said:
The market has cooled, but spouting non sense about 50% less than 2 months ago and these shall be back to list shortly makes anybody posting that look a bit daft and grasping at straws, especially on near every post made.
With all due respect, denying hard facts makes the denier daft rather than the provider.There are a multitude of examples many of which have already been posted.
Patek 5711 attracting a max bid (the actual market price) of £85k when they were going for £160k
White Gold Daytona attracting a max bid of £32k when they were going for near £60k
Stainless Blue Dial Vacheron Constantin Overseas got hyped up to £50k and are now at £30k odd; https://www.chrono24.co.uk/search/index.htm?curren...
White Dial Sub recently on C24 at MSRP (sold quickly at that price)
John Mayer Daytonas have tanked spectacularly
AP Royal Oak Stainless Steel on 30th April at $81k, now reduced by 25% and still not sold https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=85256...
Or another AP Royal Oak at 25% off original asking price and still not sold https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=85443...
Etc etc etc.
Deny all you want, above are the facts
Adrian W said:
DoubleSix said:
Nomal said:
Anyone watch Million Pound Pawn last night some guy sold his collection of mainly Steel Sports watches , acquired over the last 6 years at a cost of £260k the dealer offered to purchase outright for £520k I wonder when this was filmed !!!
Yeah. Incredible that the chap was like “you happy with that?” And the punter was all “yes!!”No due diligence, no totting up against market values. Yes, it’s a large sum but I suspect if he had added all those up individually he would realise he was having his trousers pulled down…
However, the guys reaction was real enough imho and he was no actor. One would hope that when the cameras stop rolling he did a proper costing of the deal but the scene was uncomfortable to watch.
had an appointment in cardiff yesterday and arrived early with time to waste. So out of curiosity I called in one Rolex AD to ask what if anything they had for immediate sale. The answer was 3 watches - one Cellini, and two datejusts. One was white gold with saphire bezel and diamond studded dial and it certainly caught my eye until I looked at the price. Looked legant rather than flashy. Cant find it on the Rolex website but I had it in my hands so maybe it was other than a Datejust) The other was bimetal Datejust with fluted gold bezel.
I guess those must be the slow moving end of the range but it is a change - previous visit found nothing for sale at all.
They has a nice looking JLC dress watch at a decent discount on list
I guess those must be the slow moving end of the range but it is a change - previous visit found nothing for sale at all.
They has a nice looking JLC dress watch at a decent discount on list
Edited by bordseye on Friday 24th June 12:04
si800 said:
800 said: With all due respect, denying hard facts makes the denier daft rather than the provider.
There are a multitude of examples many of which have already been posted.
Patek 5711 attracting a max bid (the actual market price) of £85k when they were going for £160k
White Gold Daytona attracting a max bid of £32k when they were going for near £60k
Stainless Blue Dial Vacheron Constantin Overseas got hyped up to £50k and are now at £30k odd; https://www.chrono24.co.uk/search/index.htm?curren...
White Dial Sub recently on C24 at MSRP (sold quickly at that price)
John Mayer Daytonas have tanked spectacularly
AP Royal Oak Stainless Steel on 30th April at $81k, now reduced by 25% and still not sold https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=85256...
Or another AP Royal Oak at 25% off original asking price and still not sold https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=85443...
Etc etc etc.
Deny all you want, above are the facts
There are a multitude of examples many of which have already been posted.
Patek 5711 attracting a max bid (the actual market price) of £85k when they were going for £160k
White Gold Daytona attracting a max bid of £32k when they were going for near £60k
Stainless Blue Dial Vacheron Constantin Overseas got hyped up to £50k and are now at £30k odd; https://www.chrono24.co.uk/search/index.htm?curren...
White Dial Sub recently on C24 at MSRP (sold quickly at that price)
John Mayer Daytonas have tanked spectacularly
AP Royal Oak Stainless Steel on 30th April at $81k, now reduced by 25% and still not sold https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=85256...
Or another AP Royal Oak at 25% off original asking price and still not sold https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=85443...
Etc etc etc.
Deny all you want, above are the facts
You really should have tried a bit harder at school if that’s how you think you show the workings of a market drop.
In fact I don’t believe anyone able to write a coherent sentence can try and pass those examples of market spread as market drop so what’s your agenda?
Pflanzgarten said:
You really should have tried a bit harder at school if that’s how you think you show the workings of a market drop.
In fact I don’t believe anyone able to write a coherent sentence can try and pass those examples of market spread as market drop so what’s your agenda?
. Pflanzgarten said:
You really should have tried a bit harder at school if that’s how you think you show the workings of a market drop.
In fact I don’t believe anyone able to write a coherent sentence can try and pass those examples of market spread as market drop so what’s your agenda?
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