Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has
Discussion
Carl_Manchester said:
Soon to be debunked by an argumentative PH poster, no doubt Handbags at ten paces it seems. Will this ever become a watch forum again? Money corrupts, and plenty of money corrupts absolutely.Can we leave the money part aside for a while and let some people sulk in the corner? suffice to say that some have made money and some have lost money. And some people just have nice watches and very nice watches - which they dare to wear with no tags on.
lowdrag said:
Handbags at ten paces it seems. Will this ever become a watch forum again? Money corrupts, and plenty of money corrupts absolutely.Can we leave the money part aside for a while and let some people sulk in the corner? suffice to say that some have made money and some have lost money. And some people just have nice watches and very nice watches - which they dare to wear with no tags on.
It does appear as the ones 'sulking in the corner' are the ones that have not bought a watch, but just post with glee if a watch seller reduces price and someone whom bought at a higher price has a watch that is not worth as much as they paid for it.Most of the people whom have bought at a higher price had the money, didn't fancy waiting and have no interest what it may or may not be worth now.
I sold my Daytona as I have big wrists and looked a bit weedy on me.
Its the only Rolex I have sold and the new owner is delighted and the price was irrelevant to him.
I fortunately get offered something from my AD every 8-12 weeks and have no plans on selling any others i have or shall be offered.
As I said before, it would be interesting to see whom would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or indeed a loss from paying rrp.
Wheelspinning said:
It does appear as the ones 'sulking in the corner' are the ones that have not bought a watch, but just post with glee if a watch seller reduces price and someone whom bought at a higher price has a watch that is not worth as much as they paid for it.
Most of the people whom have bought at a higher price had the money, didn't fancy waiting and have no interest what it may or may not be worth now.
I sold my Daytona as I have big wrists and looked a bit weedy on me.
Its the only Rolex I have sold and the new owner is delighted and the price was irrelevant to him.
I fortunately get offered something from my AD every 8-12 weeks and have no plans on selling any others i have or shall be offered.
As I said before, it would be interesting to see whom would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or indeed a loss from paying rrp.
Speaking for myself my interest in falling prices has nothing to do with what anyone else's watch is worth, it's more about seeing them steadily come back toward a price range where I can personally justify the outlay to myself. Most of the people whom have bought at a higher price had the money, didn't fancy waiting and have no interest what it may or may not be worth now.
I sold my Daytona as I have big wrists and looked a bit weedy on me.
Its the only Rolex I have sold and the new owner is delighted and the price was irrelevant to him.
I fortunately get offered something from my AD every 8-12 weeks and have no plans on selling any others i have or shall be offered.
As I said before, it would be interesting to see whom would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or indeed a loss from paying rrp.
I am fortunate enough to have owned a BLNR, Bluesy, Daytona (granted it was bi metal and looked awful on me!), Royal Oak x 2 (15300 and 26320), Aquanaut x 1 and a few others before watches got "hyped" (until around 2019). I chopped and changed fairly regularly to experience new models, often at a loss as the idea of "flipping", investing or making a profit just wasn't even a thing back then.
The recent insane prices have kept me out from the Rolex/AP/PP club unfortunately, though I've enjoyed exploring elsewhere and have bought from Girard Perregaux, Omega, Parmigiani Fleurier and Hublot in the past couple years.
That being said none give me the same warm fuzzy feeling my now 7 year old GMT Master II which I wouldn't sell ever at any price.
With the bubble deflating/bursting/however people want to define it I have hope that I can acquire a stainless Daytona to keep forever, and perhaps a precious metal pieces (white gold GMT or RG Yachtmaster) at some point.
Wheelspinning said:
It does appear as the ones 'sulking in the corner' are the ones that have not bought a watch, but just post with glee if a watch seller reduces price and someone whom bought at a higher price has a watch that is not worth as much as they paid for it.
Most of the people whom have bought at a higher price had the money, didn't fancy waiting and have no interest what it may or may not be worth now.
I sold my Daytona as I have big wrists and looked a bit weedy on me.
Its the only Rolex I have sold and the new owner is delighted and the price was irrelevant to him.
I fortunately get offered something from my AD every 8-12 weeks and have no plans on selling any others i have or shall be offered.
As I said before, it would be interesting to see whom would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or indeed a loss from paying rrp.
I would absolutely buy if I could buy them at RRP. Most of the people whom have bought at a higher price had the money, didn't fancy waiting and have no interest what it may or may not be worth now.
I sold my Daytona as I have big wrists and looked a bit weedy on me.
Its the only Rolex I have sold and the new owner is delighted and the price was irrelevant to him.
I fortunately get offered something from my AD every 8-12 weeks and have no plans on selling any others i have or shall be offered.
As I said before, it would be interesting to see whom would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or indeed a loss from paying rrp.
I currently have a couple of nice Omegas which I bought fully in the knowledge they would lose value the minute I left the shop but it doesn't really matter as I bought them because I like them and I want to.wear them.
I'll likely keep them until I die and then they will go to my kids
si
800 said:
800 said:Wheelspinning said:
It does appear as the ones 'sulking in the corner' are the ones that have not bought a watch, but just post with glee if a watch seller reduces price and someone whom bought at a higher price has a watch that is not worth as much as they paid for it.
Most of the people whom have bought at a higher price had the money, didn't fancy waiting and have no interest what it may or may not be worth now.
I sold my Daytona as I have big wrists and looked a bit weedy on me.
Its the only Rolex I have sold and the new owner is delighted and the price was irrelevant to him.
I fortunately get offered something from my AD every 8-12 weeks and have no plans on selling any others i have or shall be offered.
As I said before, it would be interesting to see whom would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or indeed a loss from paying rrp.
Speaking for myself my interest in falling prices has nothing to do with what anyone else's watch is worth, it's more about seeing them steadily come back toward a price range where I can personally justify the outlay to myself. Most of the people whom have bought at a higher price had the money, didn't fancy waiting and have no interest what it may or may not be worth now.
I sold my Daytona as I have big wrists and looked a bit weedy on me.
Its the only Rolex I have sold and the new owner is delighted and the price was irrelevant to him.
I fortunately get offered something from my AD every 8-12 weeks and have no plans on selling any others i have or shall be offered.
As I said before, it would be interesting to see whom would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or indeed a loss from paying rrp.
I am fortunate enough to have owned a BLNR, Bluesy, Daytona (granted it was bi metal and looked awful on me!), Royal Oak x 2 (15300 and 26320), Aquanaut x 1 and a few others before watches got "hyped" (until around 2019). I chopped and changed fairly regularly to experience new models, often at a loss as the idea of "flipping", investing or making a profit just wasn't even a thing back then.
The recent insane prices have kept me out from the Rolex/AP/PP club unfortunately, though I've enjoyed exploring elsewhere and have bought from Girard Perregaux, Omega, Parmigiani Fleurier and Hublot in the past couple years.
That being said none give me the same warm fuzzy feeling my now 7 year old GMT Master II which I wouldn't sell ever at any price.
With the bubble deflating/bursting/however people want to define it I have hope that I can acquire a stainless Daytona to keep forever, and perhaps a precious metal pieces (white gold GMT or RG Yachtmaster) at some point.
I was just watching (pun fully intended) the sale of a Daytona on WC - https://www.watchcollecting.com/for-sale/2021-role...
It sold for £34,000, on a bid that was made some days ago. There were NO live bids coming in at all.
What appear to be identical watches are being advertised for £10k - £15k more - https://www.chrono24.co.uk/search/index.htm?countr...
Purely anecdotal, but a few weeks ago when I was watching similar auctions there were usually bids coming in right up to the last minute.
It sold for £34,000, on a bid that was made some days ago. There were NO live bids coming in at all.
What appear to be identical watches are being advertised for £10k - £15k more - https://www.chrono24.co.uk/search/index.htm?countr...
Purely anecdotal, but a few weeks ago when I was watching similar auctions there were usually bids coming in right up to the last minute.
Wheelspinning said:
It does appear as the ones 'sulking in the corner' are the ones that have not bought a watch, but just post with glee if a watch seller reduces price and someone whom bought at a higher price has a watch that is not worth as much as they paid for it.
Most of the people whom have bought at a higher price had the money, didn't fancy waiting and have no interest what it may or may not be worth now.
I sold my Daytona as I have big wrists and looked a bit weedy on me.
Its the only Rolex I have sold and the new owner is delighted and the price was irrelevant to him.
I fortunately get offered something from my AD every 8-12 weeks and have no plans on selling any others i have or shall be offered.
As I said before, it would be interesting to see whom would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or indeed a loss from paying rrp.
Just picking up on the bits in bold there:Most of the people whom have bought at a higher price had the money, didn't fancy waiting and have no interest what it may or may not be worth now.
I sold my Daytona as I have big wrists and looked a bit weedy on me.
Its the only Rolex I have sold and the new owner is delighted and the price was irrelevant to him.
I fortunately get offered something from my AD every 8-12 weeks and have no plans on selling any others i have or shall be offered.
As I said before, it would be interesting to see whom would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or indeed a loss from paying rrp.
My personal opinion is that many people were encouraged to buy, or emboldened to buy, because of the seemingly ever increasing price. The watch world has been completely awash with people talking about 'investment pieces' and even watch 'investment groups' which many people bought into.
I'm going to suggest that some people were treating themselves to a Rolex/AP/Patek etc precisely because they saw it as a chance to make some money as well as own the watch the wanted. Nothing wrong with that, but I think it is maybe a stretch to say that most don't care if their watches bought at 'high' grey dealer prices drop in value, because we just don't know. Maybe most assumed they couldn't lose? Thats just me speculating of course.
As for who would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or a loss as soon as you walked out the shop, my answer would be: Everyone who was buying them before 2018. Things would tick over as they did 4 years ago, with Rolex still selling all their watches. I bought 3 Rolex models expecting to lose money on all of them. I know plenty of people who bought them at RRP and happy to watch them lose 40-50% of their value over the time they owned them. Retaining value wasn't the deciding factor. Heck, I own several Breitlings as well, so I'm a glutton for financial punishment!!
I would say that over 95% of all watches sold by AD's, of varying brands, lose money after purchase and they all still sell just fine. People still buy them.
Voldemort said:
This is the watch forum, not NP&E. Don't be a .
Absolutely this. . This has been a really interesting, good natured, and long running thread, populated by mostly polite posts. It does not need to be spoiled with unpleasantries and digs at people.
Please and thank you
(a general point. Not at you Wheelspinning)
Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 24th June 15:59
Pro Bono said:
I was just watching (pun fully intended) the sale of a Daytona on WC - https://www.watchcollecting.com/for-sale/2021-role...
It sold for £34,000, on a bid that was made some days ago. There were NO live bids coming in at all.
What appear to be identical watches are being advertised for £10k - £15k more - https://www.chrono24.co.uk/search/index.htm?countr...
Purely anecdotal, but a few weeks ago when I was watching similar auctions there were usually bids coming in right up to the last minute.
Lovely watch that, at not much of a premium over stainless ceramic versions. Appreciate not everyone is a fan of Oysterflex.It sold for £34,000, on a bid that was made some days ago. There were NO live bids coming in at all.
What appear to be identical watches are being advertised for £10k - £15k more - https://www.chrono24.co.uk/search/index.htm?countr...
Purely anecdotal, but a few weeks ago when I was watching similar auctions there were usually bids coming in right up to the last minute.
Did the white gold green dial aquanaut really not get above £50k!? They are £120k+ on C24....
Lord Marylebone said:
As for who would buy if there was zero to be made on them, or a loss as soon as you walked out the shop, my answer would be: Everyone who was buying them before 2018. Things would tick over as they did 4 years ago, with Rolex still selling all their watches. I bought 3 Rolex models expecting to lose money on all of them. I know plenty of people who bought them at RRP and happy to watch them lose 40-50% of their value over the time they owned them. Retaining value wasn't the deciding factor. Heck, I own several Breitlings as well, so I'm a glutton for financial punishment!!
I bought a Hublot last year, thinking buying pre owned would soften the blow if I ever wanted to sell. Sure enough time to move it on to make room for something else a year later. Original purchaser £9.7k list, I bought 6 months later at £6.7k and sold a year after for £4.5k! Oops. lowdrag said:
Handbags at ten paces it seems. Will this ever become a watch forum again? Money corrupts, and plenty of money corrupts absolutely.Can we leave the money part aside for a while and let some people sulk in the corner? suffice to say that some have made money and some have lost money. And some people just have nice watches and very nice watches - which they dare to wear with no tags on.
You rarely post outside of this thread on this sub forum. There is lots of watch enthusiasm here at all price points. si800 said:
800 said: I bought a Hublot last year, thinking buying pre owned would soften the blow if I ever wanted to sell. Sure enough time to move it on to make room for something else a year later. Original purchaser £9.7k list, I bought 6 months later at £6.7k and sold a year after for £4.5k! Oops.
Karma for buying a Hublot. 
si800 said:
800 said: So a specific watch being advertised at a price that is then reduced by 25% does NOT show the price dropping by 25%?
It’s yo ur quote we’re discussing, not mine;Pflanzgarten said:
si800 said:
800 said:Pflanzgarten said:
A dip from the beginning of this year but I personally don’t see it, what I do see is a lot of posts (not just on PH) talking up the market crash.
Genuinely surprised that you wouldn't see a 50% price drop in 2 months as a crash - what would have to happen for you to see it? The simple fact is a relatively easy to get hold of precious metal Rolex, let’s say for instance a rose gold Daytona on oyster flex jumped massively in 2022.
These were pretty easy to come by at list a year or so ago, then shot up to £35k end of last year and then people were asking (and paying granted) up to £50k in early 2022.
Now, down to late forties and some are asking late thirties for ones a few years old.
So let’s say I walked into a jewellers with this;
A real jewellers by the way, not some “consignment” Johnny come lately. What do you think they would offer me cash?
Answer? I’d bet a sizeable chunk it wouldn’t be much different from 6 or 12 months ago.
And no where near what some are asking.
There’s a huge amount of smoke and mirrors going on with watch “traders”, shouting from the rooftops about a 50% fall in prices only adds to it.
PS,
Apologies if some found my post offensive. I have a decent amount of experience and knowledge about the official Rolex dealership business, the proper grey market dealers and flippers.
I can answer any questions but I’m not having sensationalism banded about like 50% discount ones Rolex price crash and not pulling someone up in it.
I’ve read this thread for a long time and resisted posting as I know the internet market crashers would like to jump on anything positive to be said.
There is a lot still positive about the watch game (which I love and have dabbled in for over 20 years).
Apologies if some found my post offensive. I have a decent amount of experience and knowledge about the official Rolex dealership business, the proper grey market dealers and flippers.
I can answer any questions but I’m not having sensationalism banded about like 50% discount ones Rolex price crash and not pulling someone up in it.
I’ve read this thread for a long time and resisted posting as I know the internet market crashers would like to jump on anything positive to be said.
There is a lot still positive about the watch game (which I love and have dabbled in for over 20 years).
Lord Marylebone said:
I think the vast majority of people who enjoy buying and owning watches are not interested in making money.
It isn’t sour grapes about not making money, it’s more like slight despair that over the past 4 years, the simple and previously enjoyable world of collecting watches has exploded into some revolting money grabbing exercise. A Ponzi scheme. People who don’t really care about owning these watches, buying up loads of them purely to make more cash. Thousands of watches being hoarded in safes and deposit boxes, and never even having the stickers taken off them. Watches being treated as ‘investments’ rather than just simply watches.
It has all just become so grubby, and the watch world isn’t talking about horology anymore, it is just talking incessantly about value.
If I cashed in and sold up a few months ago when things were peaking and still in a frenzy, I could have made the thick end of £20k profit selling 3 of my watches, but you know what? I hope the absolute arse falls out of the market and out of my watches, and they end up being worth £4K or £5k each.
I have no interest in making money from watches and I just want to wear and enjoy them, and continue to buy more of them, of various brands and values.
That would suit me just fine. Ordinary people would be back to buying, selling, owning, wearing, and enjoying watches without the prospect of being laughed out of AD’s or having to sink £25k into buying an ordinary mass produced watch that needs to be kept in a safe, insured, and only worn in areas where you won’t be mugged.
It isn’t sour grapes about not making money, it’s more like slight despair that over the past 4 years, the simple and previously enjoyable world of collecting watches has exploded into some revolting money grabbing exercise. A Ponzi scheme. People who don’t really care about owning these watches, buying up loads of them purely to make more cash. Thousands of watches being hoarded in safes and deposit boxes, and never even having the stickers taken off them. Watches being treated as ‘investments’ rather than just simply watches.
It has all just become so grubby, and the watch world isn’t talking about horology anymore, it is just talking incessantly about value.
If I cashed in and sold up a few months ago when things were peaking and still in a frenzy, I could have made the thick end of £20k profit selling 3 of my watches, but you know what? I hope the absolute arse falls out of the market and out of my watches, and they end up being worth £4K or £5k each.
I have no interest in making money from watches and I just want to wear and enjoy them, and continue to buy more of them, of various brands and values.
That would suit me just fine. Ordinary people would be back to buying, selling, owning, wearing, and enjoying watches without the prospect of being laughed out of AD’s or having to sink £25k into buying an ordinary mass produced watch that needs to be kept in a safe, insured, and only worn in areas where you won’t be mugged.
Edited by Lord Marylebone on Friday 24th June 10:00
981SPYGANG said:
Lord Marylebone said:
I think the vast majority of people who enjoy buying and owning watches are not interested in making money.
It isn’t sour grapes about not making money, it’s more like slight despair that over the past 4 years, the simple and previously enjoyable world of collecting watches has exploded into some revolting money grabbing exercise. A Ponzi scheme. People who don’t really care about owning these watches, buying up loads of them purely to make more cash. Thousands of watches being hoarded in safes and deposit boxes, and never even having the stickers taken off them. Watches being treated as ‘investments’ rather than just simply watches.
It has all just become so grubby, and the watch world isn’t talking about horology anymore, it is just talking incessantly about value.
If I cashed in and sold up a few months ago when things were peaking and still in a frenzy, I could have made the thick end of £20k profit selling 3 of my watches, but you know what? I hope the absolute arse falls out of the market and out of my watches, and they end up being worth £4K or £5k each.
I have no interest in making money from watches and I just want to wear and enjoy them, and continue to buy more of them, of various brands and values.
That would suit me just fine. Ordinary people would be back to buying, selling, owning, wearing, and enjoying watches without the prospect of being laughed out of AD’s or having to sink £25k into buying an ordinary mass produced watch that needs to be kept in a safe, insured, and only worn in areas where you won’t be mugged.
It isn’t sour grapes about not making money, it’s more like slight despair that over the past 4 years, the simple and previously enjoyable world of collecting watches has exploded into some revolting money grabbing exercise. A Ponzi scheme. People who don’t really care about owning these watches, buying up loads of them purely to make more cash. Thousands of watches being hoarded in safes and deposit boxes, and never even having the stickers taken off them. Watches being treated as ‘investments’ rather than just simply watches.
It has all just become so grubby, and the watch world isn’t talking about horology anymore, it is just talking incessantly about value.
If I cashed in and sold up a few months ago when things were peaking and still in a frenzy, I could have made the thick end of £20k profit selling 3 of my watches, but you know what? I hope the absolute arse falls out of the market and out of my watches, and they end up being worth £4K or £5k each.
I have no interest in making money from watches and I just want to wear and enjoy them, and continue to buy more of them, of various brands and values.
That would suit me just fine. Ordinary people would be back to buying, selling, owning, wearing, and enjoying watches without the prospect of being laughed out of AD’s or having to sink £25k into buying an ordinary mass produced watch that needs to be kept in a safe, insured, and only worn in areas where you won’t be mugged.
Edited by Lord Marylebone on Friday 24th June 10:00
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