Ukrainian Air Force

[Simpo Two]

GliderRider said:

Both Nikita Khrushchev and Marshal Georgy Zhukov acknowledged that lend-lease enabled them to defeat Germany. This time round it is Russia's adversary receiving the multinational assistance.

All valid points. But what is the end game here, what is the objective of the West/Ukraine? To drive Russia back to its start point? Ukraine is never going to invade and capture Russia, and thanks to Western support, it doesn't look like the opposite will happen either.

[aeropilot]

Simpo Two said:

GliderRider said:

Both Nikita Khrushchev and Marshal Georgy Zhukov acknowledged that lend-lease enabled them to defeat Germany. This time round it is Russia's adversary receiving the multinational assistance.

All valid points. But what is the end game here, what is the objective of the West/Ukraine? To drive Russia back to its start point? Ukraine is never going to invade and capture Russia, and thanks to Western support, it doesn't look like the opposite will happen either.

Ukraine wants its pre-2014 border back, and it seems that's the stated ambition/view of the UN/west as well.

[MarkwG]

Simpo Two said:

GliderRider said:

Both Nikita Khrushchev and Marshal Georgy Zhukov acknowledged that lend-lease enabled them to defeat Germany. This time round it is Russia's adversary receiving the multinational assistance.

All valid points. But what is the end game here, what is the objective of the West/Ukraine? To drive Russia back to its start point? Ukraine is never going to invade and capture Russia, and thanks to Western support, it doesn't look like the opposite will happen either.

I imagine the least Ukraine wants is the territory lost since last February; however, considering the attrition caused by that, how well overall their military has performed, & the support they've accrued, that position may move to the pre 2014 position? I doubt any move into original Russian territory would garner international support. I suspect either position would make Putins continued existence difficult for the Kremlin to accept...

[768]

aeropilot said:

Ukraine wants its pre-2014 border back, and it seems that's the stated ambition/view of the UN/west as well.

Doesn't seem to be going brilliantly at the moment though. Less than a month until the days start getting shorter again, they need a step change or this is going to go on for years.

[aeropilot]

768 said:

aeropilot said:

Ukraine wants its pre-2014 border back, and it seems that's the stated ambition/view of the UN/west as well.

Doesn't seem to be going brilliantly at the moment though. Less than a month until the days start getting shorter again, they need a step change or this is going to go on for years.

It likely will go on for a long while yet.

This could easily end up being a 3+ year conflict.

[lizardbrain]

It could go on a lot longer than 3 years.

I think the accouncement to train pilots is partly intendend to fill the gap of expectation around counter offensive giving dramatic results this summer.

[aeropilot]

lizardbrain said:

It could go on a lot longer than 3 years.

I think the accouncement to train pilots is partly intendend to fill the gap of expectation around counter offensive giving dramatic results this summer.

Yep.

I'm not convinced Ukraine are yet ready to launch this much talked about counter-offensive, and its not going to be easy. Russia have expended a lot of effort to fortify the edges of the territory the control, and clearly intend to try and keep. Clearly they have decided that what they have now is all they are going to get (while not admitting it) and they have been trying to create a new fortified border zone to defend (like the old border zone between West and East Germany) on what they see as the new Russia-Ukraine border. Probably why the have invested so much in trying take Bahkmut, as its pretty much the only remaining contested urban area. Russia want that within their control, to be able to fortify the area around it.

[GliderRider]

Simpo Two said:

GliderRider said:

Both Nikita Khrushchev and Marshal Georgy Zhukov acknowledged that lend-lease enabled them to defeat Germany. This time round it is Russia's adversary receiving the multinational assistance.

All valid points. But what is the end game here, what is the objective of the West/Ukraine? To drive Russia back to its start point? Ukraine is never going to invade and capture Russia, and thanks to Western support, it doesn't look like the opposite will happen either.

Ukraine most likely wants its pre-2014 border back, and the countries supporting Ukraine want Russia put in a position that it will never attempt to push outside its borders again, be it Georgia, Ukraine or any other neighbours.
In the long term, the world will want/need Russia as a trading partner, and this will be more likely if and when the exisiting regime is replaced with one more democratic and less corrupt. Perhaps their will be a 'Marshall plan' to sweeten this, although none of that will happen overnight.

[Shinysideup]

Visual confirmation of Storm Shadow interfaced with Su-24

[aeropilot]

This is a good article on the air-power war in the Ukraine, more so from a point of view of trying to explain the failure of the Russian Air Force so far, or its limited effectiveness in the war, rather than from the aspect of the Ukrainian Air Force, but its worth a read.

https://wavellroom.com/2023/05/24/russian-airpower...

[GliderRider]

Shinysideup said:

Visual confirmation of Storm Shadow interfaced with Su-24

That's going to make any Russians flying Su-24s near the front lines pretty nervous.

[768]

It's air to ground, isn't it?

[Shinysideup]

768 said:

It's air to ground, isn't it?

I'm guessing he meant any Su-24s are now going to be top priority for RU air defence? Big chance of blue on blue perhaps.

[aeropilot]

Shinysideup said:

768 said:

It's air to ground, isn't it?

I'm guessing he meant any Su-24s are now going to be top priority for RU air defence? Big chance of blue on blue perhaps.

That was my interpretation as well.

Although, they only Russian Su-24's left I believe are a few Russian Navy ones that were based in Crimea, and I don't think they been seen anywhere near the front lines for some considerable time now.

[768]

Shinysideup said:

I'm guessing he meant any Su-24s are now going to be top priority for RU air defence? Big chance of blue on blue perhaps.

With you, obviously slow on the uptake, thanks.