150 Years of forcasting for the nation.
Discussion
This really turns my p!$$ to superheated volcanic sulphuric steam!!
The Metoffice running a nice competition to celebrate them forecasting the weather for 150 years -
Quote, "As part of the celebrations, we are running a photo competition. We would like you to submit your defining weather moments of this year, 2011. We want you to show us how the weather plays a part in your life and what its impact has been."
Got me thinking, maybe I £'king well will. Shots of me standing in the C*£*ting rain when they said it would be sunny. Pictures of me planning a weekends activities (on a Friday), having been promised a saturday of sunshine, only to be awoken to full cloud cover and rain all day. GREAT JOB YOU MO&HER F*£KERS!
I have been testing their forecasts for a while now, noticing they can't actually forecast a day in advance correctly. They change the forecast by the hour for the same day, well guess what - I CAN DO THAT BY LOOKING OUT OF THE F*!KING WINDOW TO!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!
The Metoffice running a nice competition to celebrate them forecasting the weather for 150 years -
Quote, "As part of the celebrations, we are running a photo competition. We would like you to submit your defining weather moments of this year, 2011. We want you to show us how the weather plays a part in your life and what its impact has been."
Got me thinking, maybe I £'king well will. Shots of me standing in the C*£*ting rain when they said it would be sunny. Pictures of me planning a weekends activities (on a Friday), having been promised a saturday of sunshine, only to be awoken to full cloud cover and rain all day. GREAT JOB YOU MO&HER F*£KERS!
I have been testing their forecasts for a while now, noticing they can't actually forecast a day in advance correctly. They change the forecast by the hour for the same day, well guess what - I CAN DO THAT BY LOOKING OUT OF THE F*!KING WINDOW TO!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!
Totally agree, they are a complete pisstake. Apart from Laura Tobin it's a waste of time watching it. Some PHers will be along soon to tell us how accurate they are if we learn to read their data properly but most people aren't that interested - they just want to know if it's going to bleeding rain.
Another argument that is trotted out concerns the complexity of our weather in the UK, if that's the case why do they even bother at all? I'd rather have Laura standing there looking good for three minutes and admitting she hasn't got a f
king clue what is going to happen than listen to half-arsed bullst which is right now and again.
Another argument that is trotted out concerns the complexity of our weather in the UK, if that's the case why do they even bother at all? I'd rather have Laura standing there looking good for three minutes and admitting she hasn't got a f
king clue what is going to happen than listen to half-arsed bullst which is right now and again.Just drives me nuts - If I was given a job to do and after 150 hours I couldnt do it, I would either a) get fired, or b) do my employer a favour and quit.
Now after making a total dogs dinner of things over the last century their celebrating the fact that thier sh!t with a competition!!
Now after making a total dogs dinner of things over the last century their celebrating the fact that thier sh!t with a competition!!
The question is not whether they do a job to the satisfaction of the disgruntled posters above, but whether anyone else, including those unhappy people, could do any better. I suspect not. Weather is actually quite variable, and it's perfectly possible for it to be raining one place, and sunny 20 miles away. Get over it.
singlecoil said:
The question is not whether they do a job to the satisfaction of the disgruntled posters above, but whether anyone else, including those unhappy people, could do any better. I suspect not. Weather is actually quite variable, and it's perfectly possible for it to be raining one place, and sunny 20 miles away. Get over it.
No, it's that they claim to be able to do, assert that they DO do it consistently, and yet they fail! None of the complainants claim to do it so you cannot criticise them in the same way.motco said:
singlecoil said:
The question is not whether they do a job to the satisfaction of the disgruntled posters above, but whether anyone else, including those unhappy people, could do any better. I suspect not. Weather is actually quite variable, and it's perfectly possible for it to be raining one place, and sunny 20 miles away. Get over it.
No, it's that they claim to be able to do, assert that they DO do it consistently, and yet they fail! None of the complainants claim to do it so you cannot criticise them in the same way.mattviatura said:
Totally agree, they are a complete pisstake. Apart from Laura Tobin it's a waste of time watching it. Some PHers will be along soon to tell us how accurate they are if we learn to read their data properly but most people aren't that interested - they just want to know if it's going to bleeding rain.
Another argument that is trotted out concerns the complexity of our weather in the UK, if that's the case why do they even bother at all? I'd rather have Laura standing there looking good for three minutes and admitting she hasn't got a fking clue what is going to happen than listen to half-arsed bullst which is right now and again.
Becky Mantin is better...Another argument that is trotted out concerns the complexity of our weather in the UK, if that's the case why do they even bother at all? I'd rather have Laura standing there looking good for three minutes and admitting she hasn't got a f
king clue what is going to happen than listen to half-arsed bullst which is right now and again.Its going to be sunny ALL WEEK! apparently. So I shall have the roof down how many times this week? 
I would love a job that I could get wrong every day and still be paid to do. It must be great. Not much respect telling people your a weather forcaster though it must be like telling people your a Tax Man or Teacher. You would need to follow up your job with a reason like every teacher ive ever spoken to adds "It isn't just 9 - 3, its not, its really not" Weather forcaster must add something similar "Its a really hard job, it is, it really is, honestly!"
I would love a job that I could get wrong every day and still be paid to do. It must be great. Not much respect telling people your a weather forcaster though it must be like telling people your a Tax Man or Teacher. You would need to follow up your job with a reason like every teacher ive ever spoken to adds "It isn't just 9 - 3, its not, its really not" Weather forcaster must add something similar "Its a really hard job, it is, it really is, honestly!"
singlecoil said:
The question is not whether they do a job to the satisfaction of the disgruntled posters above, but whether anyone else, including those unhappy people, could do any better. I suspect not.
No I couldn't. I'm not much of an airline pilot either but would expect a certain degree of competence if I should board an airliner. What a lame argument.
mattviatura said:
singlecoil said:
The question is not whether they do a job to the satisfaction of the disgruntled posters above, but whether anyone else, including those unhappy people, could do any better. I suspect not.
No I couldn't. I'm not much of an airline pilot either but would expect a certain degree of competence if I should board an airliner. What a lame argument.
Sorry to disagree with the majority here, but in my industry (North Sea oil and gas), we actually pay for our weather forecasting and in my experience the met office is one of the best of the five or six services out there.
When a couple of knots of wind or a half metre wave height can make the difference between operating or being shut down at a million dollars a day, the effect can be slightly more important than whether you get sun on your day off or not
Most of the time, the forecasts we receive are that accurate.
The trick is being able to look in isolation at the data for an area smaller than a square mile. And the shorter the range forecast, the more accurate. More than three of four days and the confidence is often quoted at even odds. Funnily enough, if you try to summarise something as complex as a nationwide weather system, then extend it a month in advance, the likelihood is it will be wrong... So don't knock the met office - knock the TV channels obsession with summarising the whole lot into a three minute sound byte from a pretty face.
But then hey, you get it free so maybe just take it with a pinch of salt and move on?
When a couple of knots of wind or a half metre wave height can make the difference between operating or being shut down at a million dollars a day, the effect can be slightly more important than whether you get sun on your day off or not
Most of the time, the forecasts we receive are that accurate.The trick is being able to look in isolation at the data for an area smaller than a square mile. And the shorter the range forecast, the more accurate. More than three of four days and the confidence is often quoted at even odds. Funnily enough, if you try to summarise something as complex as a nationwide weather system, then extend it a month in advance, the likelihood is it will be wrong... So don't knock the met office - knock the TV channels obsession with summarising the whole lot into a three minute sound byte from a pretty face.
But then hey, you get it free so maybe just take it with a pinch of salt and move on?
don't forget Fitzroy, who established the beginning of what became the Met office.
he is/was a fascinating character, there is a great book (can't remember the author) called Heart of Darkness in which he is the central character.
Fitzroy was the captain of the Beagle, and spent time surveying Tierra del Fuego from the late 1820s.
He brought back fuegan natives to Great Britain and attempted to 'civilise' them.
After this he made a second, very famous, voyage in the Beagle with Charles Darwin. Fitzroy had the beagle outfitted with state of the art equipment at his own expense, it was the first ship to be fitted with a lightning rod.
Fitzroy didn't believe in the new picture of the world that was emerging - geological time scales, evolution, etc.
After the return of the Beagle Fitzroy became governor of New Zealand. He had many problems with violence between the natives and colonists to deal with. The New Zealand Company and settlers did not approve of him when he sided with natives in a dispute where settlers had acted illegally. eventually he was removed from his post.
Back in England Fitzroy was elected to the royal society and chosen by beaufort to be in charge of a naval office which would collect weather data from captains reports. Fitzroy believed that with enough data it would be possible to forecast the weather, and using records from a number of ships he could track the progress of weather systems across seas and oceans. Fitzroy was instrumental in making sure fisherman had barometers and knew how to use them to predict when it was safe to fish, or otherwise.
in 1865 Fitzroy, who had reached the rank of Vice-Admiral, committed suicide. He had suffered from depression for his whole adult life.
definitely worth seeking out books about this man.
he is/was a fascinating character, there is a great book (can't remember the author) called Heart of Darkness in which he is the central character.
Fitzroy was the captain of the Beagle, and spent time surveying Tierra del Fuego from the late 1820s.
He brought back fuegan natives to Great Britain and attempted to 'civilise' them.
After this he made a second, very famous, voyage in the Beagle with Charles Darwin. Fitzroy had the beagle outfitted with state of the art equipment at his own expense, it was the first ship to be fitted with a lightning rod.
Fitzroy didn't believe in the new picture of the world that was emerging - geological time scales, evolution, etc.
After the return of the Beagle Fitzroy became governor of New Zealand. He had many problems with violence between the natives and colonists to deal with. The New Zealand Company and settlers did not approve of him when he sided with natives in a dispute where settlers had acted illegally. eventually he was removed from his post.
Back in England Fitzroy was elected to the royal society and chosen by beaufort to be in charge of a naval office which would collect weather data from captains reports. Fitzroy believed that with enough data it would be possible to forecast the weather, and using records from a number of ships he could track the progress of weather systems across seas and oceans. Fitzroy was instrumental in making sure fisherman had barometers and knew how to use them to predict when it was safe to fish, or otherwise.
in 1865 Fitzroy, who had reached the rank of Vice-Admiral, committed suicide. He had suffered from depression for his whole adult life.
definitely worth seeking out books about this man.
offshorematt2 said:
But then hey, you get it free so maybe just take it with a pinch of salt and move on?
FREE! Who the hell do you think pays for the government's expenditure on everything? Taxpayers, that's who! Okay so you pay for the special service and get extra data, but all the corporation tax, income tax, vat, and other taxes pay the lion's share surely, and without that your service wouldn't be available at any price.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff