150 Years of forcasting for the nation.
Discussion
motco said:
FREE! Who the hell do you think pays for the government's expenditure on everything? Taxpayers, that's who! Okay so you pay for the special service and get extra data, but all the corporation tax, income tax, vat, and other taxes pay the lion's share surely, and without that your service wouldn't be available at any price.
Well obviously it is publically funded - 'my move on' comment was tongue in cheek. But to see the anger expressed in this thread at incorrect forecasts is baffling - the Met Office don't make the weather, they just make educated guesses a week in advance. Do people really plan their actions around the weather forecast? If everybody believes that the Met Office is always incorrect, then it seems a pretty stupid approach. Maybe it's easier living in the North East of Scotland - on a sunny day, go out in a t-shirt but plan for rain and snow and you won't go far wrong 
We get all four seasons in a day...Anyway my point was that the three minutes on the end of the news is not the raison d'etre of the Met Office - it's just the public face of it that it villified and ridiculed in the press every time it makes another very public cock up. They have a large commercial operation that does very well in its field and if it wasn't prevented from doing so could probably turn a profit if it was allowed to increase the charges to private companies. It doesn't do itself any favours announcing heat waves six months in advance though granted!
singlecoil said:
The Met Office is highly competent. What you and the others fail to understand is that the Met Office's job is to provide forecasts based on the information available. That's what they do. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. Horseraces are far more predictable than the weather, and yet there are still bookmakers, they haven't gone out of business.
Right, I'm not being an idiot about this I've already admitted that I have no idea about weather predicting. According to other posters it is not possible to provide accurate weather predictions on a micro-level without paying (again) for the service. That's fine, so be it. What I do not fail to understand is that after every news bulletin we have to listen to some moron blithely announcing what the weather will do (note, not what it MIGHT do, what it WILL do). As someone who (I'll admit once again) has no idea about predicting the weather it's a pain in the arse when you are trying to make plans. No I don't work offshore and my life doesn't depend on it but that doesn't stop it being a pain in the arse, why do they bother? (Cue - don't watch it then).And that's a good point about Becky Mantin whoever said that.
offshorematt2 said:
Anyway my point was that the three minutes on the end of the news is not the raison d'etre of the Met Office - it's just the public face of it that it villified and ridiculed in the press every time it makes another very public cock up. They have a large commercial operation that does very well in its field and if it wasn't prevented from doing so could probably turn a profit if it was allowed to increase the charges to private companies. It doesn't do itself any favours announcing heat waves six months in advance though granted!
Actually the Met Office is a Trading Fund - it is expected to generate revenue to fund itself. Last year they made a £9.3 million profit and paid a dividend £8.2 million to their then owner, the MOD.Last I heard, Weather predictions are just that. Predictions. There is no definites in this game, the weather system is very complex and randomness, while it can be tamed, is hard to predict at times (just read up on Quants in the banking sector, they thought stock movements were random, clever maths tells us we can predict what random will do, saddly for guys like LTCM there is more to it that just randomness).
I heard that you can't really predict, which much certainty, the weather for more than 30mins in the future.
Heck look at the F1 teams, they cant even predict the weather 5 minutes away, often not knowing until its started raining.
Though yes, element of piss boiling the other weekend. In Bude, supposed to be sunny all weekend. Friday = sunny, Sat = sunny.....
Sunday, the day of Vicko's carnival and beach competition, the weather is cold and grey finishing in dense drizzle. Yeah standing round on a beach in a wet wetsuit on that day was bloody fun. NOT.
I heard that you can't really predict, which much certainty, the weather for more than 30mins in the future.
Heck look at the F1 teams, they cant even predict the weather 5 minutes away, often not knowing until its started raining.
Though yes, element of piss boiling the other weekend. In Bude, supposed to be sunny all weekend. Friday = sunny, Sat = sunny.....
Sunday, the day of Vicko's carnival and beach competition, the weather is cold and grey finishing in dense drizzle. Yeah standing round on a beach in a wet wetsuit on that day was bloody fun. NOT.
motco said:
The forecast this week on the Met Office's website for the coast near Eastbourne has gone from sunny to heavy rain within a 36h period. If you cannot even vaguely forecast 48h ahead why mention anything beyond day 2?
The forecasts get less reliable when they deal with the likely weather further ahead. Never-the-less, people, myself included, like to have an idea of what they might expect, whilst accepting that it might not work out like that. The Met Office give no guarantees, but they are more likely to be right than anybody else.Use Psychology said:
Lots of interesting stuff
Fitzroy was instrumental in making sure fisherman had barometers and knew how to use them to predict when it was safe to fish, or otherwise.
in 1865 Fitzroy, who had reached the rank of Vice-Admiral, committed suicide. He had suffered from depression for his whole adult life.
Shame his Barometer didn't predict his great depression Fitzroy was instrumental in making sure fisherman had barometers and knew how to use them to predict when it was safe to fish, or otherwise.
in 1865 Fitzroy, who had reached the rank of Vice-Admiral, committed suicide. He had suffered from depression for his whole adult life.
mattviatura said:
most people aren't that interested - they just want to know if it's going to bleeding rain.
Here's what I do;Go here - http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
If there's a big blob over you it's probably raining at the moment.
If there's a big blob heading toward you it's probably going to rain within a few hours.
Works for me
Use Psychology said:
don't forget Fitzroy, who established the beginning of what became the Met office.
he is/was a fascinating character, there is a great book (can't remember the author) called Heart of Darkness in which he is the central character.
Fitzroy was the captain of the Beagle, and spent time surveying Tierra del Fuego from the late 1820s.
He brought back fuegan natives to Great Britain and attempted to 'civilise' them.
After this he made a second, very famous, voyage in the Beagle with Charles Darwin. Fitzroy had the beagle outfitted with state of the art equipment at his own expense, it was the first ship to be fitted with a lightning rod.
Fitzroy didn't believe in the new picture of the world that was emerging - geological time scales, evolution, etc.
After the return of the Beagle Fitzroy became governor of New Zealand. He had many problems with violence between the natives and colonists to deal with. The New Zealand Company and settlers did not approve of him when he sided with natives in a dispute where settlers had acted illegally. eventually he was removed from his post.
Back in England Fitzroy was elected to the royal society and chosen by beaufort to be in charge of a naval office which would collect weather data from captains reports. Fitzroy believed that with enough data it would be possible to forecast the weather, and using records from a number of ships he could track the progress of weather systems across seas and oceans. Fitzroy was instrumental in making sure fisherman had barometers and knew how to use them to predict when it was safe to fish, or otherwise.
in 1865 Fitzroy, who had reached the rank of Vice-Admiral, committed suicide. He had suffered from depression for his whole adult life.
definitely worth seeking out books about this man.
Well of course he was bloody depressed...he spent it his life trying to predict the British weather!! he is/was a fascinating character, there is a great book (can't remember the author) called Heart of Darkness in which he is the central character.
Fitzroy was the captain of the Beagle, and spent time surveying Tierra del Fuego from the late 1820s.
He brought back fuegan natives to Great Britain and attempted to 'civilise' them.
After this he made a second, very famous, voyage in the Beagle with Charles Darwin. Fitzroy had the beagle outfitted with state of the art equipment at his own expense, it was the first ship to be fitted with a lightning rod.
Fitzroy didn't believe in the new picture of the world that was emerging - geological time scales, evolution, etc.
After the return of the Beagle Fitzroy became governor of New Zealand. He had many problems with violence between the natives and colonists to deal with. The New Zealand Company and settlers did not approve of him when he sided with natives in a dispute where settlers had acted illegally. eventually he was removed from his post.
Back in England Fitzroy was elected to the royal society and chosen by beaufort to be in charge of a naval office which would collect weather data from captains reports. Fitzroy believed that with enough data it would be possible to forecast the weather, and using records from a number of ships he could track the progress of weather systems across seas and oceans. Fitzroy was instrumental in making sure fisherman had barometers and knew how to use them to predict when it was safe to fish, or otherwise.
in 1865 Fitzroy, who had reached the rank of Vice-Admiral, committed suicide. He had suffered from depression for his whole adult life.
definitely worth seeking out books about this man.
Weather forecasting pisses me off big time...
If you need a forecast for your job e.g. fisherman, pilot etc then fair enough but for you average person it is a waste of time. Usually it is totally wrong or it just blabs on about how great the weather is in London broadcast 15 million times a day!!!
Other countries don't seem to be obsessed as us about the weather.
If you need a forecast for your job e.g. fisherman, pilot etc then fair enough but for you average person it is a waste of time. Usually it is totally wrong or it just blabs on about how great the weather is in London broadcast 15 million times a day!!!
Other countries don't seem to be obsessed as us about the weather.
Don’t forget the latest wheeze by the BBC:
start the forecast by telling us what weather we've had
Then go into great detail about what the weather will be like at 5am. Why?? Is it because so few people are up then that it doesn’t matter whether its raining or not??
Then briefly mention today and tomorrow BUT NO MORE!
The summarise with images for London, Edinburgh, cardiff, Belfast. I live in the Midlands. Which one is relevant to me and the millions of others??
start the forecast by telling us what weather we've had
Then go into great detail about what the weather will be like at 5am. Why?? Is it because so few people are up then that it doesn’t matter whether its raining or not??
Then briefly mention today and tomorrow BUT NO MORE!
The summarise with images for London, Edinburgh, cardiff, Belfast. I live in the Midlands. Which one is relevant to me and the millions of others??
MarkRSi said:
Here's what I do;
Go here - http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
If there's a big blob over you it's probably raining at the moment.
If there's a big blob heading toward you it's probably going to rain within a few hours.
Works for me
Brilliant.Go here - http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
If there's a big blob over you it's probably raining at the moment.
If there's a big blob heading toward you it's probably going to rain within a few hours.
Works for me
Added to my links bar - thanks
motco said:
The forecast this week on the Met Office's website for the coast near Eastbourne has gone from sunny to heavy rain within a 36h period. If you cannot even vaguely forecast 48h ahead why mention anything beyond day 2?
Well they could add a margin of probability to each day's forecast.Such as a forecast made on a Sunday would be something like:
Monday, sunshine and showers (70% accuracy)
Tuesday more of the same (40%)
Wednesday cloud and rain (25%)
and so on.
But would the Great Thick British Public understand this? Like hell they would.
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