Sentiment: It is back to the lows of 2008?
Discussion
Well, I was still in school in 2008. However, as a family we're worse now, a lot worse. Where we were just about scraping by, now there's a lot of juggling. Personally, I'm pretty nervous about the future of my company, we've been in the news for all the wrong reasons. However, that's in no small part due to senior management. There's been some fairly major new faces introduced up top and initial signs are promising, so hopefully we'll be able to make it through, but I'm definitely leaving my options open. There's a real feeling that nobody's safe, and not just where I work. Consensus is that if you have a job or get offered a job, grab it with both hands and hang onto it for dear life 
Cyder said:
Car industry is far better than 2008, and I bloody hope it stays this way!
I'm alone, sat in a factory that is closed for the week as no one is buying the cars, despite this being the period right after a launch when everyone should be working their socks off to keep up. There’s been no overtime and no Fridays off since the start of production build (this is a main stream Ford car).
It’s getting so bad that it looks like our company will have to write off peoples banked hours as there is no opportunity to pay them back.
For Europe and the US it's pretty grim. I would say worse than 2008 because in 4 years we've done nothing to fix it. I know the OP was interested in sentiment rather than the underlying causes, but the two are clearly linked.
Here in Asia it's a healthier story, with lots still going on. Which is why I have everything in Asia and no assets or liabilities in the UK.
Here in Asia it's a healthier story, with lots still going on. Which is why I have everything in Asia and no assets or liabilities in the UK.
September UK consumer confidence was up a tad.
http://www.gfknop.com/pressinfo/releases/singleart...
Back down in October.
http://www.gfknop.com/pressinfo/releases/singleart...
http://www.gfknop.com/pressinfo/releases/singleart...
Back down in October.
http://www.gfknop.com/pressinfo/releases/singleart...
AJS- said:
For Europe and the US it's pretty grim. I would say worse than 2008 because in 4 years we've done nothing to fix it. I know the OP was interested in sentiment rather than the underlying causes, but the two are clearly linked.
Here in Asia it's a healthier story, with lots still going on. Which is why I have everything in Asia and no assets or liabilities in the UK.
Are you not concerned that there is a time lag out here? A slow down in economic growth in the US and Europe can't be good. Not as bad as it may have been 10 years ago, but my concern is the lead time for pain to be felt out here. Here in Asia it's a healthier story, with lots still going on. Which is why I have everything in Asia and no assets or liabilities in the UK.
On the other hand, it may be asia's time to become more of an equal partner on the world stage, especially given that most people still have a culture of saving rather than borrowing, so are better placed to ride out a tough year or three.
I set up a business one year ago, luckily with no borrowing.
Turnover doubled in a year, in terms of low millions and taking people on.
You have to take business from other peoples there isn't enough to go round anymore.
That said I work in a specialist area in London, anywhere else in the country I expect is more exposed to the economic mailaise
Turnover doubled in a year, in terms of low millions and taking people on.
You have to take business from other peoples there isn't enough to go round anymore.
That said I work in a specialist area in London, anywhere else in the country I expect is more exposed to the economic mailaise
Bing o said:
Are you not concerned that there is a time lag out here? A slow down in economic growth in the US and Europe can't be good. Not as bad as it may have been 10 years ago, but my concern is the lead time for pain to be felt out here.
On the other hand, it may be asia's time to become more of an equal partner on the world stage, especially given that most people still have a culture of saving rather than borrowing, so are better placed to ride out a tough year or three.
I was more worried about that 2 years ago really. Demand from the west has been weakening since late 2007 but there's enough domestic demand to keep things going, and as you say the underlying stuff is so much stronger. On the other hand, it may be asia's time to become more of an equal partner on the world stage, especially given that most people still have a culture of saving rather than borrowing, so are better placed to ride out a tough year or three.
Most importantly I think the price levels are more realistic here. A fasionable city centre condo in Bangkok is probably worth £100,000 in a way that a pokey little flat above a kebab shop in Tottenham never was - ie. more people are prepared to and able to pay for it, rather than every man and his dog taking out an interest only mortgage to get on the property ladder or start a buy-to-let empire.
As for Asia's turn to get on a more even footing with the west, I'm not sure. It seems like Malaysia is going in the right direction, but then they go and do something daft like caning that girl for drinking a beer. Thailand is still massively corrupt in many ways which hinder development. The rest of SEA has even deeper rooted problems which will take time to solve and we probably won't see Rangoon or Phnom Phen challenging London or New York as a centre of global banking anytime soon. But they do seem to be acutally developing rather than just saying their hut has risen 40% in value this year and buying a new Mercedes.
Sentiment is all. In any recession the majority of people will keep their jobs, and will benefit from the stimulus applied to the economy. Often that is very low inflation, and lower interest rates which both put money in people's pockets. This time inflation has not been so benign but anyone who is a home owner with a mortgage is (probably) significantly better off because interest rates are so low. Savings ratios are up significantly across the developed world which is no bad thing as we had a number of years of "negative saving" and this balance needed to be redressed.
If we assume that the Euro is not going to fall over - which would plunge us into an economic tailspin - then I think the most likely outcome is a sustained period (another7-10 years) of anaemic growth.
Personally, everything is ok for me and in my business. Like most other people though I am saving hard, and spending less because of the backdrop of uncertainty.
If we assume that the Euro is not going to fall over - which would plunge us into an economic tailspin - then I think the most likely outcome is a sustained period (another7-10 years) of anaemic growth.
Personally, everything is ok for me and in my business. Like most other people though I am saving hard, and spending less because of the backdrop of uncertainty.
thinfourth2 said:
I'm earning more, got a bigger house, more cars and still haven't eaten the dog.
Come to Asia, we'll eat it for you.AJS- said:
A fasionable city centre condo in Bangkok is probably worth £100,000 in a way that a pokey little flat above a kebab shop in Tottenham never was
Well, it's waterfront living now, isn't it 
AJS- said:
The rest of SEA has even deeper rooted problems which will take time to solve and we probably won't see Rangoon or Phnom Phen challenging London or New York as a centre of global banking anytime soon. But they do seem to be acutally developing rather than just saying their hut has risen 40% in value this year and buying a new Mercedes.
Myanmar is one country that offers huge growth and opportunity, and one I'm looking at a business opportunity in at the moment....
tting myself. I think you can only take so much bad news day in day out until it starts to rub off on you? I'm not looking forward to next year.Business here is increasing but I think that's because we are quite lean and competitive and have invested well in marketing recently. It feels like we are really striving for every project though, there's definitely no time to relax. On the other hand one of the big names in the industry, which hasn't adapted well to market changes and therein lies the problem, is rumoured to be looking for a big new investor before it goes pop. Now where is that piece of wood?
Murcielago_Boy said:
I'm in business and I am of the opinion that a LOT of people are really 5hitting themselves right now with respect to the economy and economic prospects.
I don't want to debate the state of the economy itself - forget underlying drivers, indicators - forget that- I don't think anything is as important as sentiment - as feeling. I want to know how people are FEELING here? You chaps putting your money away deferring consumption? Scared about your jobs etc?
Do you FEEL that things are as bad as they were 3 years ago when many people thought that the world was about to come to an end?
Good thread because - as Rocksteadyeddie says - sentiment is all.I don't want to debate the state of the economy itself - forget underlying drivers, indicators - forget that- I don't think anything is as important as sentiment - as feeling. I want to know how people are FEELING here? You chaps putting your money away deferring consumption? Scared about your jobs etc?
Do you FEEL that things are as bad as they were 3 years ago when many people thought that the world was about to come to an end?
I think the early days of the BBC singing for their supper (re govt cuts) was a bit disingeneous and unhelpful in this regard and certainly, over the last month or two, the seriousness of the EU problem has been dropped in front of the average Joe with more emphasis and clarity than ever before. Pros and cons to the latter; Euroskepticism no doubt got a shot in the arm and argualby a dose of much needed reality; but then the 'negative' press does always reduce optimism.
Our main business deals B2B but from anything from a one-man-band type operation, right up to a plc and I can tell you, from 20 years of experience that, largeley even the biggest (supposedly more financially sophosticated) plc's behave in a very similar way to the consumer on the high street. There is a definite 'herd' - granted there are outliers in all business sectors - which tends to draw it's horns in when the sentimment is bad.
I know the big supermarkets can tell pretty accurately how consumers will behave as a result of certain combinations of events - news, weather, time of month, time of year etc. - and from our experience we are continually baffled at how 'everone' is quiet and/or busy at the same time, even though we serve a very diverse base in terms of size and geographic location.
To sum up, my take on October is that the EU debacle has frightened people. With the can kicked down the road for a while, I;d hope you find business a bit easier in November at least.
I think in general the feeling is that the economy is in the crapper and we should just hold onto our money until we get through this.
The new Westfield is busy. lots of people. Not sure there's much purchasing going on though, not so many at the tills just lots milling about the shop floor.
So many new cars launched but how often do you see them?
People are hunkering down.
Thats what I believe anyway.
The new Westfield is busy. lots of people. Not sure there's much purchasing going on though, not so many at the tills just lots milling about the shop floor.
So many new cars launched but how often do you see them?
People are hunkering down.
Thats what I believe anyway.
Mikeyboy said:
I think in general the feeling is that the economy is in the crapper and we should just hold onto our money until we get through this.
The new Westfield is busy. lots of people. Not sure there's much purchasing going on though, not so many at the tills just lots milling about the shop floor.
So many new cars launched but how often do you see them?
People are hunkering down.
Thats what I believe anyway.
Lots of people visiting Westfield but no one buying I am told....The new Westfield is busy. lots of people. Not sure there's much purchasing going on though, not so many at the tills just lots milling about the shop floor.
So many new cars launched but how often do you see them?
People are hunkering down.
Thats what I believe anyway.
birdcage said:
Lots of people visiting Westfield but no one buying I am told....
Whitecity has more dipsosable cash walking around the shopping centre including tourists.Stratford....well....the idea was for all the east side county families to use that instead of coming to the westend...but it is not happening yet.
Well I'm on my first day of unemployment in 25 years....
however, I brought it on myself by requesting redundancy. I've got a new job that starts in 2 weeks at roughly 100% more take home pay. And I'm waiting on my ex firm to stuff my current account full of cash as per the redundancy agreement.
Could be worse.
however, I brought it on myself by requesting redundancy. I've got a new job that starts in 2 weeks at roughly 100% more take home pay. And I'm waiting on my ex firm to stuff my current account full of cash as per the redundancy agreement.
Could be worse.
Bing o said:
AJS- said:
A fasionable city centre condo in Bangkok is probably worth £100,000 in a way that a pokey little flat above a kebab shop in Tottenham never was
Well, it's waterfront living now, isn't it Bing o said:
Myanmar is one country that offers huge growth and opportunity, and one I'm looking at a business opportunity in at the moment....
Very true. If they ever get some sort of a functioning democracy (at least in the Thai sense) then it will go through the roof. I've only ever really flown over it and read about it, but seems like they have mountains, beaches and more that make Thailand look pretty average, and all at half the price.My long range goal is to be here with a pocket full of cash in a few years when the whole lot opens up.
Edited by AJS- on Wednesday 2nd November 00:44
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