It's looking grim again. Is gold the would-be saviour?
Discussion
Digga said:
More to come still I reckon - I reckon those predictions from last year look to be in the right ballpark.
AdvocatusD's $1760 for March is looking very sound.
Right, time to have another punt.AdvocatusD's $1760 for March is looking very sound.
BoE is printing more cash, Greece might cease to become a headline issue soon (doesn't mean problem is going away) and I think the fundamentals for gold performance over the last decade haven't changed.
I reckon, this month will see further falls, but I think over the next 3 months we will see an increase.
What do we say for this time next month? I.e. within one week either side of 20 April 2012?
I'm going with $1780.
AdvocatusD said:
Right, time to have another punt.
BoE is printing more cash, Greece might cease to become a headline issue soon (doesn't mean problem is going away) and I think the fundamentals for gold performance over the last decade haven't changed.
I reckon, this month will see further falls, but I think over the next 3 months we will see an increase.
What do we say for this time next month? I.e. within one week either side of 20 April 2012?
I'm going with $1780.
This week the market is mostly building up to sBoE is printing more cash, Greece might cease to become a headline issue soon (doesn't mean problem is going away) and I think the fundamentals for gold performance over the last decade haven't changed.
I reckon, this month will see further falls, but I think over the next 3 months we will see an increase.
What do we say for this time next month? I.e. within one week either side of 20 April 2012?
I'm going with $1780.
tting itself over Portugal and a collapse in growth in China.If the Euro is now saved then Euro denominated tax evaders will be disappearing from the demand side for gold, but I suspect this would be temporary.
If China did have a correction, growth stall etc then the question is what impact will this have on gold? Will it lead to an increase in supply as reserves are cashed in or in demand as local money does a runner?
And then the matter of the OTCs which are the true driver of the demand spike, if the West starts to think that gold has run its course and funds stop increasing client holdings, or worse, selling out, that could be the trigger for the total collapse of the bubble.
DonkeyApple said:
If China did have a correction, growth stall etc then the question is what impact will this have on gold? Will it lead to an increase in supply as reserves are cashed in or in demand as local money does a runner?
Good point, that'll be an interesting one to watch. Personally I think their market is likely to liquidate Gold to keep the spenders feeling cash rich.
Well it does look a little like the late buyers of gold are waking up to the fact that if the crisis appears that they were dreading their asset of choice actually won't be of much use.
It has already reached the point that little new retail money is coming in as the market has topped for the time being and combine this with the fact that we now have forced sellers from both those on margin and those having to raise cash to fund losses elsewhere and there is noteable downside pressure. Add to this the bears are starting to take positions and funds are crossing out and into USD instead and there is greater cause today to suspect the game is coming to a close.
So far a gentle 20% off from the peak but there is growing risk of a rout on the horizon.
It has already reached the point that little new retail money is coming in as the market has topped for the time being and combine this with the fact that we now have forced sellers from both those on margin and those having to raise cash to fund losses elsewhere and there is noteable downside pressure. Add to this the bears are starting to take positions and funds are crossing out and into USD instead and there is greater cause today to suspect the game is coming to a close.
So far a gentle 20% off from the peak but there is growing risk of a rout on the horizon.
superkartracer said:
And Silver!, sold mine @ 30 ounce months back, now £17...
Another bubble with even less reason to have ever climbed.Demand side pressure for gold is likely to return if the EU turns on the printing machines or more potently if the US does again, but the real and credible safehavens still remain USD and Swiss Francs, the Swiss won't be printing so if the US start again then much of that capital will flow to Francs.
superkartracer said:
DonkeyApple said:
Another bubble with even less reason to have ever climbed.
Well it is used in industry and it's still *cheap* compared to gold prices and looking back into history comparing the two etc . Purchased back when it was £8 so worth the punt and made a few ££.
It didn't climb on the back of industrial demand but purely on speculative longs expecting it to rise solely because gold has and relying on the traditional mental link between the two.
It has absolutely no use if an economy collapses as industrial demand will drop as will speculative. It's less dense and less pure than gold so wouldn't be used to transport wealth fast across physical legal boundaries which is the only real non industrial purpose of gold. But in the modern world, why risk transporting a physical asset when in seconds you can ping your wealth into a foreign and more stable currency. Bank default fear does also play a role but it is still underpinned by the history of transportation ease. No one who remains in a collapsed economy would find physical gold of that much use. It will either be seized by those more powerful or converted into useable assets at such a heavy discount as to be worth less than a bowl of olives.
superkartracer said:
Thanks for the above and i know this 
but still made over 200% profit
Glad i sold it tho and the gold i had...
Nowt wrong with trading and one of the best basic elementry systems of trading is to run a strong trend. but still made over 200% profit Glad i sold it tho and the gold i had...
It's those 'investing' that are arguably taking on risks that they do not comprehend and are being decieved by both unregulated and regulated entities who have a core agenda.
DonkeyApple said:
Demand side pressure for gold is likely to return if the EU turns on the printing machines or more potently if the US does again, but the real and credible safehavens still remain USD and Swiss Francs, the Swiss won't be printing so if the US start again then much of that capital will flow to Francs.
I may have misunderstood your point, but with the EUR/CHF floor at 1.20 to defend, the SNB certainly are/will be turning the presses on. It's like the ERM in reverse, but (as far as I can tell) no position for the Soros and co to take.Hmmm...
It's been good couple of months generally for gold, but not a great couple of weeks.
That being said, gold gone up rather a lot today on the back of the Presidential election result.
I'm suprised at this. I would have thought that it would go down given the euphoria/temporary feeling of stability that an election gives?
Any thoughts?
It's been good couple of months generally for gold, but not a great couple of weeks.
That being said, gold gone up rather a lot today on the back of the Presidential election result.
I'm suprised at this. I would have thought that it would go down given the euphoria/temporary feeling of stability that an election gives?
Any thoughts?
AdvocatusD said:
Hmmm...
It's been good couple of months generally for gold, but not a great couple of weeks.
That being said, gold gone up rather a lot today on the back of the Presidential election result.
I'm suprised at this. I would have thought that it would go down given the euphoria/temporary feeling of stability that an election gives?
Any thoughts?
Have you seen the financial situation of the US under Obama?It's been good couple of months generally for gold, but not a great couple of weeks.
That being said, gold gone up rather a lot today on the back of the Presidential election result.
I'm suprised at this. I would have thought that it would go down given the euphoria/temporary feeling of stability that an election gives?
Any thoughts?
AdvocatusD said:
Hmmm...
It's been good couple of months generally for gold, but not a great couple of weeks.
That being said, gold gone up rather a lot today on the back of the Presidential election result.
I'm suprised at this. I would have thought that it would go down given the euphoria/temporary feeling of stability that an election gives?
Any thoughts?
Money printing v borrowing. Dollar will keep being worth less for another 4 years, ergo commods priced in USD will appear to increase in value.It's been good couple of months generally for gold, but not a great couple of weeks.
That being said, gold gone up rather a lot today on the back of the Presidential election result.
I'm suprised at this. I would have thought that it would go down given the euphoria/temporary feeling of stability that an election gives?
Any thoughts?
Under Mr the massive increase in spending would have made other asset types more favourable than gold in the short term.
AdvocatusD said:
Hmmm...
I'm suprised at this. I would have thought that it would go down given the euphoria/temporary feeling of stability that an election gives?
That stability and euphoria just crashed the MarketI'm suprised at this. I would have thought that it would go down given the euphoria/temporary feeling of stability that an election gives?
Gold may be a hedge for a Dollar investor, not so much for a Sterling person.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff