Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]

[Ozzie Osmond]

Beware Greeks bearing gifts

[Digga]

Guam said:

RichardD said:

There seems to be a consensus that there is going to be more money printy printy to plug the UK deficit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/90691...

The BofE will keep doing this until more balance is restored imho.

But then what is balance? That much inflation that the country starts exporting shiny things to China!?

More useless nonsense ,QE cant fix this, only Govt restructuring and reduced taxes can. What the hell is going on at the BOE and treasury now are they collectively insane?

Nicely telegraphed in The Telegraph; BoE vote to inflate the pain away again; http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2...

[Gargamel]

Again from the Telegraph - AEP

Another normal day at the Hellenic Statistical Authority.

We learn that:

Greece's manufacturing output contracted by 15.5pc in December from a year earlier.

Industrial output fell 11.3pc, compared to minus 7.8pc in November.

Unemployment jumped to 20.9pc in November, up from 18.2pc a month earlier.



Those are some powerful numbers to cogitate....

[Gargamel]

bosscerbera said:

And what will they make this 'growth' with?

Well, I don't know, but e130bn buys a lots of training and apprentice schemes, university places, research and development, new infrastructure etc.

Spain still has decent size industrial base so investing in high tech or efficiency gains seems one way to go.

[Mikeyboy]

Gargamel said:

bosscerbera said:

And what will they make this 'growth' with?

Well, I don't know, but e130bn buys a lots of training and apprentice schemes, university places, research and development, new infrastructure etc.

Spain still has decent size industrial base so investing in high tech or efficiency gains seems one way to go.

They have no issues with University places but they don't have any jobs for them when they get out. The problem with Spain has been that even before the Euro the labour market was stuck in the 50's, maybe the 70s at best. You had to know people to even get a job and you had to know the right people in that company to get a job that was half decent and had any prospects.
The situation is a little better there in terms of mobility there are still 20% of the population out of work, at best guess. I would say it was higher, its only just got that bad in Greece but its been like that for years in Spain.
130bn won't do much to change that. Labour reform is the only solution.
Infrastructure projects for Spain are the least of what they need. Thats in act what they spent most of the Euro cash on in the last 15 or more years. High Speed Rail line to Valencia, Cadiz and Barcelona? Two of which are only useful for Madrilenos to go to the beach for the weekend.
High tech may be one way for them to go but the education system there isn't up to much. and so the skills base probably won't support much more of it.
Spain in other words just needs root and branch education and labour reform. Giving them the 130bn before that will just be a waste.

[Mermaid]

Greek austerity plan "agreed"

[bosscerbera]

Mermaid said:

Greek austerity plan "agreed"

Again?

[Digga]

bosscerbera said:

Mermaid said:

Greek austerity plan "agreed"

Again?

I simply cannot see it working out.

They've proved countless times that they are prepared to obfuscate (let's not say lie at this point) in order to appease but have not shown desire as a nation to knuckle down to the root problem. Neither is there a viable plan as to where the economy goes from here.

[Crusoe]

Reporting a Greek deal has been done

Though as most know it won't really be worth much http://www.businessinsider.com/in-case-you-forgot-...

See how default is rated next I guess...

[Mermaid]

bosscerbera said:

Again?

Reflects badly on those who rely on it & speak highly of it like Draghi at an ECB conference on right now.

[bobbylondonuk]

It is all setting up for a fall soon....FTSE short button ready to go in another month or so! Should be a nice 300-500 point fall back to around the 5300 mark. Greek default has been roughly priced in...Greek exit, I dont think is priced in yet.

Just an amatuer thinking out aloud...not based on anything concrete.

[0a]

The numbers agreed today are probably out of date given the terrible data coming out of Greece today. Like the "resolution" summit we saw last year, history will show the Euro-fools are fiddling with meaningless measures to stop the inevitable.

[bosscerbera]

0a said:

...history will show the Euro-fools are fiddling with meaningless measures to stop the inevitable.

An excellent summary.

[Mikeyboy]

bobbylondonuk said:

It is all setting up for a fall soon....FTSE short button ready to go in another month or so! Should be a nice 300-500 point fall back to around the 5300 mark. Greek default has been roughly priced in...Greek exit, I dont think is priced in yet.

Just an amatuer thinking out aloud...not based on anything concrete.

Hmm that still implies that the market has risen over 400 points from last October when the last panic about default set in. I reckon you'd have to short lower than that if Greece is forced out of the Euro.

Spain is up 1000 points since that time last year, and that is just insane

[0a]

bosscerbera said:

0a said:

...history will show the Euro-fools are fiddling with meaningless measures to stop the inevitable.

An excellent summary.

News 24 is now saying there will be EU/IMF consideration of the numbers tonight as the situation has got far worse since the terms of the deal were originally discussed.

[Steffan]

0a said:

bosscerbera said:

0a said:

...history will show the Euro-fools are fiddling with meaningless measures to stop the inevitable.

An excellent summary.

News 24 is now saying there will be EU/IMF consideration of the numbers tonight as the situation has got far worse since the terms of the deal were originally discussed.

I hope that at some point the EU will wake up to the stark reality of Greek misfeance and dishonest manipulation of their figures.

I am not holding my breath on this.

The position of Greece is irrecoverable.

All the massaging and money printing cannot change this fact.

I also hope this realisation comes before another Billion of EU money is pored down the drain.

I an not holding my breath on this either.

[Gargamel]

Mikeyboy said:

They have no issues with University places but they don't have any jobs for them when they get out. The problem with Spain has been that even before the Euro the labour market was stuck in the 50's, maybe the 70s at best. You had to know people to even get a job and you had to know the right people in that company to get a job that was half decent and had any prospects.
The situation is a little better there in terms of mobility there are still 20% of the population out of work, at best guess. I would say it was higher, its only just got that bad in Greece but its been like that for years in Spain.
130bn won't do much to change that. Labour reform is the only solution.
Infrastructure projects for Spain are the least of what they need. Thats in act what they spent most of the Euro cash on in the last 15 or more years. High Speed Rail line to Valencia, Cadiz and Barcelona? Two of which are only useful for Madrilenos to go to the beach for the weekend.
High tech may be one way for them to go but the education system there isn't up to much. and so the skills base probably won't support much more of it.
Spain in other words just needs root and branch education and labour reform. Giving them the 130bn before that will just be a waste.

Bit contradictory here in the same post. Re university and education.
My bold.

Anyway events have moved on looks like the money is going to Switzerland via Greece

[1point7bar]

Gargamel said:

Anyway events have moved on looks like the money is going to Switzerland via Greece

The neutron star pulling it's dark.

[0a]

I just heard a BBC chap say "if Greece leaves the Euro its banks will collapse, it will be unable to borrow in open markets, and the country will become unsustainable".

Have they not watched the news recently?

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

I hope that at some point the EU will wake up to the stark reality of Greek misfeance and dishonest manipulation of their figures.

I am not holding my breath on this.

The position of Greece is irrecoverable.

All the massaging and money printing cannot change this fact.

I also hope this realisation comes before another Billion of EU money is pored down the drain.

I am not holding my breath on this either.

Good plan