Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]
Discussion
Driller said:
Ah, threw you the old googly eh?
I'm for the Euro because it's a very useful thing and represents a nice ideal (I know, I know) of countries getting on together.
Apart from that, I'm in, don't have a choice in the matter and now I'm in, it would be very bad news for me if it failed. It would be bad news for millions of other ordinary, blameless people too.
Of course, if it did fail, a very few other people would probably stand to make an awful lot of money.
Other than that there is no "by default" ECB/IMF thing. I hate politics and politicians and all the other members of their exclusive I Know how to Play With Money Club who rule the planet.
They should all be cast into a burning pit along with all the marketing executives.
Oh and it is indestructible, you know why? Because the people in charge (you know, the ones that make up all the rules of this game we're playing?) have decided it should be.
Googly, yes!I'm for the Euro because it's a very useful thing and represents a nice ideal (I know, I know) of countries getting on together.
Apart from that, I'm in, don't have a choice in the matter and now I'm in, it would be very bad news for me if it failed. It would be bad news for millions of other ordinary, blameless people too.
Of course, if it did fail, a very few other people would probably stand to make an awful lot of money.
Other than that there is no "by default" ECB/IMF thing. I hate politics and politicians and all the other members of their exclusive I Know how to Play With Money Club who rule the planet.
They should all be cast into a burning pit along with all the marketing executives.
Oh and it is indestructible, you know why? Because the people in charge (you know, the ones that make up all the rules of this game we're playing?) have decided it should be.
Edited by Driller on Monday 30th April 17:53
I'm not sure you'd lose money if the Euro finished, you're in France IIRC.
How do you square your obviously well meant comments against the misery of the millions in the unemployment queues that the "nice ideal" has wrought across the EZ? The riots and cracked heads, tear gas and rubber bullets, bankrupt businesses and broken dreams, empty factories and half built flats, the impoverishment of half a continent.
Interesting views.
I particularly like the Road to Domestos quote which is a significant update of the ancient St Paul quote.
It doe seem that the Spanish Omlette of Penury, Unemployment and Rancour, has gone right off and that Spain is very likely to be the prime mover into the next round of Tales from Europe is Busted chapter 13.
Certainly one of the HBAT's (Driller fame at last!!) is simply going to roll over and once one goes then the rest will follow double quick.
I do wonder whether the combined drag of a series of Sovereign defaults on the remaining confidence of the markets in the Euro as a currency and the European Union as a sustainable structure at all will have terminal effects on the ECB and ESF.
I cannot see how either the ECB of the ESF can possibly remain solvent once this lot goes. Their exposure to all the HBAT's going down like ninepins, must surely be too great? Predicting the final outcome is just too complex, but that must be one of the most likely consequences IMO. Not very long from now.
I particularly like the Road to Domestos quote which is a significant update of the ancient St Paul quote.
It doe seem that the Spanish Omlette of Penury, Unemployment and Rancour, has gone right off and that Spain is very likely to be the prime mover into the next round of Tales from Europe is Busted chapter 13.
Certainly one of the HBAT's (Driller fame at last!!) is simply going to roll over and once one goes then the rest will follow double quick.
I do wonder whether the combined drag of a series of Sovereign defaults on the remaining confidence of the markets in the Euro as a currency and the European Union as a sustainable structure at all will have terminal effects on the ECB and ESF.
I cannot see how either the ECB of the ESF can possibly remain solvent once this lot goes. Their exposure to all the HBAT's going down like ninepins, must surely be too great? Predicting the final outcome is just too complex, but that must be one of the most likely consequences IMO. Not very long from now.
Yes I'm in France, do you not think there'd be any financial fallout from something like that then? I convinced it wouldn't be pretty.
I knew you'd pull me on the "nice ideal" thing (too easy!) but are you sure that with the global financial meltdown we've been having these last years that all this misery wouldn't be happening anyway?
I knew you'd pull me on the "nice ideal" thing (too easy!) but are you sure that with the global financial meltdown we've been having these last years that all this misery wouldn't be happening anyway?
Andy Zarse said:
I'm baffled. I thought you were all for the Euro (and by default the ECB/IMF) and that it was a terrific idea which was indestructable.
Like St Paul, perhaps reading this thread has given you a conversion on the road to Domestos
To be fair my post wasn't pro or anti euro, more an observation on how debt can be used as a weapon and that there's historical precedent for Globs point about compound interest.Like St Paul, perhaps reading this thread has given you a conversion on the road to Domestos
I couldn't care less whether Europe goes to a full fiscal union and keeps the euro or reverts to old currencies, unfortunately however the idiots running Europe won't grab the mutt by the nuts and go for one of the sensible options.
This leaves Europe with a system that's demonstrably not working, or to use the weapon analogy, our dear leaders have put the currency gun in their mouth and are looking at the trigger saying "What does this bit do?"
Tartan Pixie said:
Andy Zarse said:
I'm baffled. I thought you were all for the Euro (and by default the ECB/IMF) and that it was a terrific idea which was indestructable.
Like St Paul, perhaps reading this thread has given you a conversion on the road to Domestos
To be fair my post wasn't pro or anti euro, more an observation on how debt can be used as a weapon and that there's historical precedent for Globs point about compound interest.Like St Paul, perhaps reading this thread has given you a conversion on the road to Domestos
I couldn't care less whether Europe goes to a full fiscal union and keeps the euro or reverts to old currencies, unfortunately however the idiots running Europe won't grab the mutt by the nuts and go for one of the sensible options.
This leaves Europe with a system that's demonstrably not working, or to use the weapon analogy, our dear leaders have put the currency gun in their mouth and are looking at the trigger saying "What does this bit do?"
WhoseGeneration said:
Reads like a lot of jibberish to me. There are clearly enough employed people to feed the world (more of less) and produce all the iPads. If all the other people are being paid to do nothing that suggests a problem with the distribution of work not the number of people.HundredthIdiot said:
WhoseGeneration said:
Reads like a lot of jibberish to me. There are clearly enough employed people to feed the world (more of less) and produce all the iPads. If all the other people are being paid to do nothing that suggests a problem with the distribution of work not the number of people.turbobloke said:
Distribution yes, also a mismatch between the type of work and the ability plus willingness of people to do it even if it was redistributed.
Right, and yet we're being told that we have to work until three-score-years-and-ten due to the "demographic timebomb".The "timebomb" is actually the complete inability of developed societies to effectively utilise the latent capacity in the 20-60 age group.
I've no idea what the solution is, but it makes me want to punch a politician.
Politician I think that a dose of what you need rather than what you want (ie iphone 4 when you have a perfectly good Iphone3 or even 2)would see the consumer techno era blow out,even people not working not owning a house all seem to have the 42" plasma hanging over the fireplace and the 11plate focus on the drive,how they even afford to run a car blows my mind,I even see people shying away from 1.6 engine cars as "too juicy" these days.
Gary11 said:
I think that a dose of what you need rather than what you want (ie iphone 4 when you have a perfectly good Iphone3 or even 2)would see the consumer techno era blow out,even people not working not owning a house all seem to have the 42" plasma hanging over the fireplace and the 11plate focus on the drive,how they even afford to run a car blows my mind,I even see people shying away from 1.6 engine cars as "too juicy" these days.
& still we have this 
May 01, 10:00am
Sterling undermined by weak UK data
Tuesday 09:30 BST. Disappointing manufacturing data put the pound under pressure on Tuesday, and came as a reminder of the perilous state of the UK economy.
Mermaid said:
& still we have this
May 01, 10:00am
Sterling undermined by weak UK data
Tuesday 09:30 BST. Disappointing manufacturing data put the pound under pressure on Tuesday, and came as a reminder of the perilous state of the UK economy.
You are right the most worrying pointer is that consumer debt and goverment borrowing is still increasing month on month,the lynch pin of Camerons policy regarding people being better off at home than in employment is actually getting worse not better, for every one of the feckless he gets back to work I bet 3 more are joining the dole queue,the truth is historicaly a depression will come if people stop spending and they are as we can see on the high st everywhere,ask any one in buisness if since the downturn the caring back to work goverment have reduced their Xs or their banks have helped them through these times,the truth is they are shafting us all liars all of them IMO LIARS WITH NO NEW IDEAS!May 01, 10:00am
Sterling undermined by weak UK data
Tuesday 09:30 BST. Disappointing manufacturing data put the pound under pressure on Tuesday, and came as a reminder of the perilous state of the UK economy.
Who are they and who are us?
If you are a small to medium business owner, then yes, life is and has been very very very hard. Banks have been squeezed them terribly.
If you arent, then, er...que? Your mortgage is as low as its ever been due to the interest rates and that is the largest part of every family outgoing in the country, so despite anything else going up, providing you still have your job, then you are in fact better off. Fewer people have lost their jobs in this recession than in previous ones, its been remarkably mild in that context. What we havent had is the short(ish) sharp pain and then steep recovery. Its been long and long and therefore feels doubly depressing, but in reality affects more ppl far less than in the past.
The other side of this is that after 3 yrs there is actually an awful lot of credit going around out there. People have had 3 yrs paying off their mortgages, there are quite a few families with some spare cash floating around. So why arent we spending? Recovering? Because banks are still hurting the smaller guys and the press is lapping up the negative impressions and reinforcing them. This double dip part of the recession we have more or less talked ourselves into!
If you are a small to medium business owner, then yes, life is and has been very very very hard. Banks have been squeezed them terribly.
If you arent, then, er...que? Your mortgage is as low as its ever been due to the interest rates and that is the largest part of every family outgoing in the country, so despite anything else going up, providing you still have your job, then you are in fact better off. Fewer people have lost their jobs in this recession than in previous ones, its been remarkably mild in that context. What we havent had is the short(ish) sharp pain and then steep recovery. Its been long and long and therefore feels doubly depressing, but in reality affects more ppl far less than in the past.
The other side of this is that after 3 yrs there is actually an awful lot of credit going around out there. People have had 3 yrs paying off their mortgages, there are quite a few families with some spare cash floating around. So why arent we spending? Recovering? Because banks are still hurting the smaller guys and the press is lapping up the negative impressions and reinforcing them. This double dip part of the recession we have more or less talked ourselves into!
DJRC said:
If you are a small to medium business owner, then yes, life is and has been very very very hard. Banks have been squeezed them terribly.
If you are a small to medium business owner...with lots of debt, maybe.It is possible to run a business without credit just as it is possible to run a household without credit. You may not be as "successful" as others, at least until they all get squeezed in a credit crunch.
HundredthIdiot said:
If you are a small to medium business owner...with lots of debt, maybe.
It is possible to run a business without credit just as it is possible to run a household without credit. You may not be as "successful" as others, at least until they all get squeezed in a credit crunch.
I think its accepted to be so,there arent IMO many buisnesses/or individuals not into the bank somewhere along the line at some point!It is possible to run a business without credit just as it is possible to run a household without credit. You may not be as "successful" as others, at least until they all get squeezed in a credit crunch.
DJRC said:
Who are they and who are us?
If you are a small to medium business owner, then yes, life is and has been very very very hard. Banks have been squeezed them terribly.
If you arent, then, er...que? Your mortgage is as low as its ever been due to the interest rates and that is the largest part of every family outgoing in the country, so despite anything else going up, providing you still have your job, then you are in fact better off. Fewer people have lost their jobs in this recession than in previous ones, its been remarkably mild in that context. What we havent had is the short(ish) sharp pain and then steep recovery. Its been long and long and therefore feels doubly depressing, but in reality affects more ppl far less than in the past.
The other side of this is that after 3 yrs there is actually an awful lot of credit going around out there. People have had 3 yrs paying off their mortgages, there are quite a few families with some spare cash floating around. So why arent we spending? Recovering? Because banks are still hurting the smaller guys and the press is lapping up the negative impressions and reinforcing them. This double dip part of the recession we have more or less talked ourselves into!
An interesting view. If you are a small to medium business owner, then yes, life is and has been very very very hard. Banks have been squeezed them terribly.
If you arent, then, er...que? Your mortgage is as low as its ever been due to the interest rates and that is the largest part of every family outgoing in the country, so despite anything else going up, providing you still have your job, then you are in fact better off. Fewer people have lost their jobs in this recession than in previous ones, its been remarkably mild in that context. What we havent had is the short(ish) sharp pain and then steep recovery. Its been long and long and therefore feels doubly depressing, but in reality affects more ppl far less than in the past.
The other side of this is that after 3 yrs there is actually an awful lot of credit going around out there. People have had 3 yrs paying off their mortgages, there are quite a few families with some spare cash floating around. So why arent we spending? Recovering? Because banks are still hurting the smaller guys and the press is lapping up the negative impressions and reinforcing them. This double dip part of the recession we have more or less talked ourselves into!
You will not be surprised to learn that, I have, on occasions been accused of talking the market down myself, with my concerns about the future of the HBAT's and such matters.
However I believe that all of this mess is down to one fundamental problem. Irresponsible Government, Me first Politics and every Political party therefore being wedded to grossly excessive government expenditure which we cannot afford as a nation.
It seems to me patently obvious that the real problem is the utterly irresponsible actions of the Blair/Brown government overspending as they did thereby destroying the UK financial structures over a twelve year period ably assisted by greedy profligate Bankers like Fred Goodwin and Co.
In Europe the whole dishonest mess created by Merkozy and Co ably assisted by the Greek, Spanish, Portuguese and Italian governments over the same period have used the same totally irresponsible government borrowing to ruin the EU as a financial powerhouse. Again supported by the greedy Bankers.
We need responsible practical economically well founded policies to be adopted by every European government. We have utterly feckless, irresponsibility and Me first politicians.
I do not think shooting the messenger who is trying to effect a absolutely essential change will help. It is the likes of Blair Brown, Sarkozy and Merkel with their Me first approach to government that need replacing with effective honest responsible leaders.
Unfortunately, as others have reported on various posts, the reality of the economic policies of the Cameron government, is that the actuality of the economic recovery, is in fact a continuing massive overspend by the UK government which will not put things right in any way.
Unless someone in government actually faces the real problem that the UK cannot afford the Benefit Society we have currently, the consequent continuing overspending by government on benefits, must result in the collapse of confidence in the UK and therefore investment in the UK itself.
Whilst this may be an unpalatable fact it is surely better to recognise the truth than face economic ruin? That does seem to me to be the reality of the governments choices. There are no easy answers in a hard economic climate. The UK has to live within its means.
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