Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

...Unless someone in government actually faces the real problem that the UK cannot afford the Benefit Society we have currently, the consequent continuing overspending by government on benefits, must result in the collapse of confidence in the UK and therefore investment in the UK itself.

Whilst this may be an unpalatable fact it is surely better to recognise the truth than face economic ruin? That does seem to me to be the reality of the governments choices. There are no easy answers in a hard economic climate. The UK has to live within its means.

Do you not sense the mega tanker has started to turn the corner?

[LongQ]

DJRC said:

Who are they and who are us?

If you are a small to medium business owner, then yes, life is and has been very very very hard. Banks have been squeezed them terribly.

If you arent, then, er...que? Your mortgage is as low as its ever been due to the interest rates and that is the largest part of every family outgoing in the country, so despite anything else going up, providing you still have your job, then you are in fact better off. Fewer people have lost their jobs in this recession than in previous ones, its been remarkably mild in that context. What we havent had is the short(ish) sharp pain and then steep recovery. Its been long and long and therefore feels doubly depressing, but in reality affects more ppl far less than in the past.

The other side of this is that after 3 yrs there is actually an awful lot of credit going around out there. People have had 3 yrs paying off their mortgages, there are quite a few families with some spare cash floating around. So why arent we spending? Recovering? Because banks are still hurting the smaller guys and the press is lapping up the negative impressions and reinforcing them. This double dip part of the recession we have more or less talked ourselves into!

Maybe.

On the other hand the several thousand jobs ejected by HSBC have already happened and the other banks are in line for the same. This is core High Street stuff not some sort of backroom far away esoteric investment activity. That suggests that HSBC does not see an opportunity to turn a profit from the public at large and presumably the same for the other banks.

Either that or the people that manage the banks, along with the Murdochs (according to 'MPs') and presumably many other 'managers' too, are not fit to run their businesses. Interesting that MPs are able to make that assessment. Presumably they feel the same way about themselves being fit to 'run' the country if they are that astute? Perhaps they should admit as much and stand aside? If nothing else it might, in the long term, so something positive for economic 'confidence'.

Edited by LongQ on Tuesday 1st May 22:45

[Steffan]

Mermaid said:

Steffan said:

...Unless someone in government actually faces the real problem that the UK cannot afford the Benefit Society we have currently, the consequent continuing overspending by government on benefits, must result in the collapse of confidence in the UK and therefore investment in the UK itself.

Whilst this may be an unpalatable fact it is surely better to recognise the truth than face economic ruin? That does seem to me to be the reality of the governments choices. There are no easy answers in a hard economic climate. The UK has to live within its means.

Do you not sense the mega tanker has started to turn the corner?

Possibly. But we have idiots like bkbrain and Millipede in charge of Labour who clearly think the the TB/GB disaster was entirely acceptable. And who would happily continue to pour more and more money taken firm the poor taxpayers and overborrowed by the Treasury in the name of the Taxpayers into totally unsupportable benefits scheme which the country cannot afford.

The Benefits Society is a wet dream to Labour. Lots of votes easily bought with someone elses money. So we are certainly not out of the woods. There is no downside for them as they move onto the international Statesman stage in their self careers. With Yvette Cooper to make the tea.

[DJRC]

Steffan said:

DJRC said:

Who are they and who are us?

If you are a small to medium business owner, then yes, life is and has been very very very hard. Banks have been squeezed them terribly.

If you arent, then, er...que? Your mortgage is as low as its ever been due to the interest rates and that is the largest part of every family outgoing in the country, so despite anything else going up, providing you still have your job, then you are in fact better off. Fewer people have lost their jobs in this recession than in previous ones, its been remarkably mild in that context. What we havent had is the short(ish) sharp pain and then steep recovery. Its been long and long and therefore feels doubly depressing, but in reality affects more ppl far less than in the past.

The other side of this is that after 3 yrs there is actually an awful lot of credit going around out there. People have had 3 yrs paying off their mortgages, there are quite a few families with some spare cash floating around. So why arent we spending? Recovering? Because banks are still hurting the smaller guys and the press is lapping up the negative impressions and reinforcing them. This double dip part of the recession we have more or less talked ourselves into!

An interesting view.

You will not be surprised to learn that, I have, on occasions been accused of talking the market down myself, with my concerns about the future of the HBAT's and such matters.

However I believe that all of this mess is down to one fundamental problem. Irresponsible Government, Me first Politics and every Political party therefore being wedded to grossly excessive government expenditure which we cannot afford as a nation.

It seems to me patently obvious that the real problem is the utterly irresponsible actions of the Blair/Brown government overspending as they did thereby destroying the UK financial structures over a twelve year period ably assisted by greedy profligate Bankers like Fred Goodwin and Co.

In Europe the whole dishonest mess created by Merkozy and Co ably assisted by the Greek, Spanish, Portuguese and Italian governments over the same period have used the same totally irresponsible government borrowing to ruin the EU as a financial powerhouse. Again supported by the greedy Bankers.

We need responsible practical economically well founded policies to be adopted by every European government. We have utterly feckless, irresponsibility and Me first politicians.

I do not think shooting the messenger who is trying to effect a absolutely essential change will help. It is the likes of Blair Brown, Sarkozy and Merkel with their Me first approach to government that need replacing with effective honest responsible leaders.

Unfortunately, as others have reported on various posts, the reality of the economic policies of the Cameron government, is that the actuality of the economic recovery, is in fact a continuing massive overspend by the UK government which will not put things right in any way.

Unless someone in government actually faces the real problem that the UK cannot afford the Benefit Society we have currently, the consequent continuing overspending by government on benefits, must result in the collapse of confidence in the UK and therefore investment in the UK itself.

Whilst this may be an unpalatable fact it is surely better to recognise the truth than face economic ruin? That does seem to me to be the reality of the governments choices. There are no easy answers in a hard economic climate. The UK has to live within its means.

The Govt cannot just turn off the public money tap.

It is politically not possible. Understand that Steffan...not possible. Its a non-negotiable option off the table for every Western politician in modern political history except for perhaps Hitler and Stalin in their breathtaking brutality.

You have to turn it off slowly, that means it carries on still first, but you reduce the rate. You manage the pain. If the govt hadnt been so inept with the irrelvent stuff ...Hunt, Murdoch, Hague, the speeding idiot and wife, health reforms, etc, etc...then they would currently be sitting pretty. From the back end of this year, early next you will start to see the Uk recover. It will be pretty much relatively inline with the planned timetable.

CMD and Boy George have played the only strategic card they had...the Russian defence. There is a fair chance it will work, but the large factors outside of their control are the European factors. What happens with France and Germany. If they can de-couple the perception of British economy fate hanging on Europe and make the link to American and Fat East trade, then they will get away with it regardless of Europe. The only option the Torries had was trading space and time on the economy. Everything else was a non-starter. CMD needs to start leading his govt properly though and managing the non-economic fk ups though.

[davepoth]

DJRC said:

If the govt hadnt been so inept with the irrelvent stuff ...Hunt, Murdoch, Hague, the speeding idiot and wife, health reforms, etc, etc...then they would currently be sitting pretty.

A very good point. Labour really haven't made much running on the economy for months.

[Bing o]

DJRC said:

You have to turn it off slowly, that means it carries on still first, but you reduce the rate. You manage the pain.

That would be the 5% increase in benefits vs the 1% PS pay rises?

The UK is being crippled by the mess of the previous left wing party, and the incumbent left wing parties inability to sort it out.

[Jazzer77]

Bing o said:

That would be the 5% increase in benefits vs the 1% PS pay rises?

The UK is being crippled by the mess of the previous left wing party, and the incumbent left wing parties inability to sort it out.

You make a key point. Govt had the chance to at least inflate away a small portion of the benefit culture, instead they make an inflationary rise in benefit payments when almost no worker was receiving that kind of "pay" rise.
The advantage of getting off your backside and contributing actually decreased.

[powerstroke]

Jazzer77 said:

Bing o said:

That would be the 5% increase in benefits vs the 1% PS pay rises?

The UK is being crippled by the mess of the previous left wing party, and the incumbent left wing parties inability to sort it out.

You make a key point. Govt had the chance to at least inflate away a small portion of the benefit culture, instead they make an inflationary rise in benefit payments when almost no worker was receiving that kind of "pay" rise.
The advantage of getting off your backside and contributing actually decreased.

Yes unbelivable.. low paid worker= fk you!!! benifits claimant = well done have some more...

[Andy Zarse]

The man from Canada tells the truth...

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty explains why he told The Silver Witch to stick her IMF begging bowl up her backside. And quite right too. Why the Osbourne Kid didn't do the same is beyond me.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...

[Blib]

Canada's Flaherty said:

Ultimately, the adequacy of the actions taken will be judged by the markets. Repeated expressions of confidence by politicians are futile if the markets continue to cast their vote of non-confidence.

In a nutshell.

[powerstroke]

Andy Zarse said:

The man from Canada tells the truth...

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty explains why he told The Silver Witch to stick her IMF begging bowl up her backside. And quite right too. Why the Osbourne Kid didn't do the same is beyond me.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...

Why because its easyier to throw other peoples money at a problem than address it!!
it would open up the old we want a referendum on the EU debate and they dont want
that do they..

[GBB]

Blib said:

Canada's Flaherty said:

Ultimately, the adequacy of the actions taken will be judged by the markets. Repeated expressions of confidence by politicians are futile if the markets continue to cast their vote of non-confidence.

In a nutshell.

+1.

Osborne didn't

a)Want to be seen to let his Euro politician mates down
b)Risk being blamed by them for the collapse of the eurozone
c)Risk the euro collapse hitting the UK economy (which it will and it will)

I'm pondering what a European holiday will be like in 10 yrs time, will it be like visiting the third world

[DJRC]

Bing o said:

DJRC said:

You have to turn it off slowly, that means it carries on still first, but you reduce the rate. You manage the pain.

That would be the 5% increase in benefits vs the 1% PS pay rises?

The UK is being crippled by the mess of the previous left wing party, and the incumbent left wing parties inability to sort it out.

Politics. You have unemployment increasing. You know it will increase for perhaps 12 months when you hope it will start to come down again. You have to throw a bone. If you want your strategy to work, if you want the long term benefit, you have to throw the short term bone. The plan always called for taking 2 yrs of pain, stabilising, then back to growth. Circumstances have put a 12month spanner in that plan, some of which are beyond control, some of which are due to the govt being inept and/or weak.

[Bing o]

DJRC said:

Bing o said:

DJRC said:

You have to turn it off slowly, that means it carries on still first, but you reduce the rate. You manage the pain.

That would be the 5% increase in benefits vs the 1% PS pay rises?

The UK is being crippled by the mess of the previous left wing party, and the incumbent left wing parties inability to sort it out.

Politics. You have unemployment increasing. You know it will increase for perhaps 12 months when you hope it will start to come down again. You have to throw a bone. If you want your strategy to work, if you want the long term benefit, you have to throw the short term bone. The plan always called for taking 2 yrs of pain, stabilising, then back to growth. Circumstances have put a 12month spanner in that plan, some of which are beyond control, some of which are due to the govt being inept and/or weak.

But why not 1% and 1%? It would be madness for a Labour govt to do the above, let alone a Con led coalition. They need to get the pain out of the way now, so that 2014/15 shows signs of improvements and there is a chance of keeping Labia out (not that it seems to make any difference anyway).

[Mermaid]

S & P raises Greece local long term debt rating to CCC from selective default.

[turbobloke]

Mermaid said:

S & P raises Greece local long term debt rating to CCC from selective default.

Is that like going up from bunk to junk?

[DJRC]

Bing o said:

DJRC said:

Bing o said:

DJRC said:

You have to turn it off slowly, that means it carries on still first, but you reduce the rate. You manage the pain.

That would be the 5% increase in benefits vs the 1% PS pay rises?

The UK is being crippled by the mess of the previous left wing party, and the incumbent left wing parties inability to sort it out.

Politics. You have unemployment increasing. You know it will increase for perhaps 12 months when you hope it will start to come down again. You have to throw a bone. If you want your strategy to work, if you want the long term benefit, you have to throw the short term bone. The plan always called for taking 2 yrs of pain, stabilising, then back to growth. Circumstances have put a 12month spanner in that plan, some of which are beyond control, some of which are due to the govt being inept and/or weak.

But why not 1% and 1%? It would be madness for a Labour govt to do the above, let alone a Con led coalition. They need to get the pain out of the way now, so that 2014/15 shows signs of improvements and there is a chance of keeping Labia out (not that it seems to make any difference anyway).

? That is the plan. The economic growth will come back end of this year/start of 2013. By 2014 and 15 the economy may well be running along at 2-3% again. UK economy wise they have got the economics/politics balance just about right. Their troubles are the uncontrollable aspects of European economics and their domestic political ineptness. The Boy George has been vastly better on the money side than expected, which in fairness isnt too hard, as I certainly regarded him as completely useless.

[Steffan]

turbobloke said:

Mermaid said:

S & P raises Greece local long term debt rating to CCC from selective default.

Is that like going up from bunk to junk?

I think it is worse than that really.

It is quite obvious to any observer of the EU machinations and HBAT's utterly prostrate and failing economies, that none of the HBAT's are ever going to be able to recover and return to prosperity, unless they default and rebuild their entire economic systems. Which will take years.

The EU is holding the HBAT's within the Euro, by offering lovely subsidy as required, knowing full well that the EU taxpayer will take the hit and have no recourse to anyone. Straws to drowning men. Simply disgraceful conduct.

I find this glib, slippery approach, to what is an horrendous future for the electorate and taxpayers of the HBAT's simply disgraceful. All the EU leaders know that this can only end in one way. It reminds me of a cat playing with a mouse.

This level of deliberate, patent apparent dishonesty, should not be acceptable in a civilised society. This is not the way for any economic difficulty to be managed and is unbecoming conduct in any public office.

I think it simply underlines the absolute lack of regard the EU politicians have for the people of the EU.

[Mermaid]

DJRC said:

The Boy George has been vastly better on the money side than expected, which in fairness isnt too hard, as I certainly regarded him as completely useless.

+1 & in the scheme of things, has proved better than Ken Clarke would have.

[Andy Zarse]

Steffan said:

turbobloke said:

Mermaid said:

S & P raises Greece local long term debt rating to CCC from selective default.

Is that like going up from bunk to junk?

I think it is worse than that really.

It is quite obvious to any observer of the EU machinations and HBAT's utterly prostrate and failing economies, that none of the HBAT's are ever going to be able to recover and return to prosperity, unless they default and rebuild their entire economic systems. Which will take years.

The EU is holding the HBAT's within the Euro, by offering lovely subsidy as required, knowing full well that the EU taxpayer will take the hit and have no recourse to anyone. Straws to drowning men. Simply disgraceful conduct.

I find this glib, slippery approach, to what is an horrendous future for the electorate and taxpayers of the HBAT's simply disgraceful. All the EU leaders know that this can only end in one way. It reminds me of a cat playing with a mouse.

This level of deliberate, patent apparent dishonesty, should not be acceptable in a civilised society. This is not the way for any economic difficulty to be managed and is unbecoming conduct in any public office.

I think it simply underlines the absolute lack of regard the EU politicians have for the people of the EU.

It's not so much a drowning man clutching straws but a group of drowning men borrowing and lending each other straws when they simply don't have enough of them to go round. It might take some time, but eventually and surely, they'll drown.

You have consistently underestimated the pigheaded determination of EZ politicians to force the Euro to work. All of them absolutely refuse to be proved wrong, and will duck, dive, bob, weave and dodge to the end of their breath. Instead of fulminating daily, you need to factor this willfullness into your prognostications, sit back and enjoy the slo-mo car crash like others of us do. Of course, Turbobloke has his global warming too and it's like trying to watch two TV programs at once. If only one could Sky + it and wind through the adverts...