Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]

[HundredthIdiot]

Globs said:

If the Irish do eventually vote for it, then they will have been very very very very stupid. It wil also prove conclusively that you really do get the leaders you deserve.

Before the EU/ECB Ireland was a sustainable, independent country.
Now it's just a broken part of the EU/ECB experiment, told what to do and when to do it by foreigners thousands of miles away.

I still puzzle about what the IRA was all about, they hated any sign of England's control and yet they have let the europeans walk all over them and grind their faces into the dirt. Totally baffling.

Equating the EU fiscal compact with English rule is fatuous. FWIW Sinn Fein are the only party with any kind of anti-EU stance, but that's probably a consequence of their economic illiteracy. So if you're looking for consistency, it's there.

The Irish are in trouble because of gross economic mismanagement and poor/absent banking regulation by one *Irish* government and a small number of utterly feckless/reckless *Irish* bankers, *Irish* property developers, and a proportion of the *Irish* population who completely lost the plot and took on unsustainable personal debt.

Eurozone membership brought low interest rates and that's about it. The current monitoring/control programme is a consequence of the bailout, which was a consequence of a vast deficit, which was a consequence of massive Irish bank failures and the property bubble bursting, which was a consequence of bad Irish decisions.

In short, Ireland is in trouble because Ireland f'cked up, but the alternative to entering the fiscal compact (which only really formalises the regime it's already under) is to default and leave the Euro. The metropolitan class doesn't want out and the boggers are too hooked on CAP subsidies or welfare payments to rock the boat.

[1point7bar]

CAP is a common market policy, not currency.

Overlooked detail probably to the voters also.

[Sump Scraper]

I'm just having a quick look through the treaty and a few things worry me.


http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/1216838/treat...

2. The ESM shall have full legal personality; it shall have full legal capacity to:
(a) acquire and dispose of movable and immovable property;
(b) contract;
(c) be a party to legal proceedings; and
(d) enter into a headquarter agreement and/or protocols as necessary for ensuring that its legal
status and its privileges and immunities are recognised and enforced.

3. The ESM, its property, funding and assets, wherever located and by whomsoever held, shall
enjoy immunity from every form of judicial process except to the extent that the ESM expressly
waives its immunity for the purpose of any proceedings or by the terms of any contract, including
the documentation of the funding instruments.

4. The property, funding and assets of the ESM shall, wherever located and by whomsoever
held, be immune from search, requisition, confiscation, expropriation or any other form of seizure,
taking or foreclosure by executive, judicial, administrative or legislative action.

5. The archives of the ESM and all documents belonging to the ESM or held by it, shall
be inviolable.

The premises of the ESM shall be inviolable.

7. The official communications of the ESM shall be accorded by each ESM Member and by
each state which has recognised the legal status and the privileges and immunities of the ESM, the
same treatment as it accords to the official communications of an ESM Member.

8. To the extent necessary to carry out the activities provided for in this Treaty, all property,
funding and assets of the ESM shall be free from restrictions, regulations, controls and moratoria of
any nature.

9. The ESM shall be exempted from any requirement to be authorised or licensed as a credit
institution, investment services provider or other authorised licensed or regulated entity under the laws of each ESM Member.


As I live in Ireland and will be voting on this, should I be worried?

There is other things in the treaty that I'm not to happy about,these are just a few that stand out.

[Mermaid]

Mervyn King thinks LTRO 1 prevented run on European Banks

[Mermaid]

LTRO 2 529bln


LTRO 3 when?

[1point7bar]

When LTRO 2 fails to unwind the contingent liabilities.

[Andy Zarse]

Andy Zarse said:

Andy Zarse said:

Ozzie Osmond said:

Gary11 said:

Ozzie Osmond said:

It's lucky that's ABSOLUTELY NOTHING like the UK where the money printing presses are running round the clock up to prop up the unelected Germans in Buckingham Palace. (I think there's a Greek bloke hanging about too; bet it's him who's doing all the spending.)

Utterly meaningless factually incorrect post in the context of this forum.

• No Quantitative Easing in UK?
• UK has an elected Queen?
• The house of Saxe-Coburg & Gotha isn't German?
• No Greeks in Buck House?

Silly me....

• No sawdust between your ears?

What Gary was driving at - as you know fine well but were being deliberately obtuse - is that the printing presses are not running to prop up unelected Germans. Please provide the slightest evidence of this or admit you are a tt.

The only unelected German being propped by printing presses will be the new German president, the previous incumbent having resigned after it turned out he was a stupid turd. He will be selected without recourse to debate by a secret appointed cabal, everyone knows he'll again be another placeman appointed by Merkel.

PS I ask you again, as you always fail to reply, why do you think the Eu 1trillion LTRO unleashed by the ECB, or the SMP bond purchasing program do not constitute QE?

Ozzie Osmond said:

You show me a press announcement from the ECB which says it's decided to engage in a program of Quantitative Easing similar to UK/USA and I will be impressed. Until then, nope. However, this does not mean I am unaware of what they have been doing.

What an utterly cretinous thing to say. Of course there won't be any such press announcement from the ECB you plonker! However, here's how it works, though I suspect it's wasted on you and your pithicoidal intellect.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-m...

"The LTRO is QE in disguise. The LTRO affects bank balance sheets in the same way as Quantitative Easing. Look for the ECB’s balance sheet to expand by at least €200 billion in the weeks ahead."

Now tell us how this is all wrong, and why you (correctly IMO) criticise the BoE for QE but pretend your beloved ECB are doing no such thing.

I won't hold my breath...

Good job I didn't hold my breath then, still no reply from Ozzie...

Fortunately, Merv has come out in support of me! Jeremy Warner at The Telegraph tweets:

"Mervyn King insists that QE is equivalent to ECB's LTRO programme."

[Huntsman]

Andy Zarse said:

Fortunately, Merv has come out in support of me! Jeremy Warner at The Telegraph tweets:

"Mervyn King insists that QE is equivalent to ECB's LTRO programme."

And

BBC Chap said:

BBC business editor Robert Peston said the central bank's move represented "a massive, perhaps unprecedented, expansion of the ECB's balance sheet".

Looks like QE to me.

[Digga]

1point7bar said:

When LTRO 2 fails to unwind the contingent liabilities.

Exactly. What is the EU doing to restore competitiveness? fk all of course. France, I'm sure, are still cruising happily along on their 37.5 minute working day, or whatever.

Andrew Bosomworth senior portfolio manager at PIMCO said:

Without growth, the LTROs are a bridge to nowhere.

O/T great name; who doesn't like to get their bosom worth?

[bosscerbera]

Digga said:

1point7bar said:

When LTRO 2 fails to unwind the contingent liabilities.

Exactly. What is the EU doing to restore competitiveness? fk all of course. France, I'm sure, are still cruising happily along on their 37.5 minute working day, or whatever.

Andrew Bosomworth senior portfolio manager at PIMCO said:

Without growth, the LTROs are a bridge to nowhere.

O/T great name; who doesn't like to get their bosom worth?

+1.... Bosomworth is an excellent name.

Re: competitiveness, it CANNOT be restored/created. The hypothesis is fine, of course things would improve if more people worked/earned/created/traded/exported. But it is IMPOSSIBLE.

What we are seeing is a pïss-and-wind exercise that will test how long baseless paper/digits can be exchanged for real goods.

The world 'balance of trade' where the [dubious] concept of fiat money *sort of* worked as an exchange of IOUs alongside an exchange of goods has skewed to goods in one direction and IOUs in the other. The issuers of IOUs have no (or insufficient, now or ever) goods to redress the balance. The recipients of IOUs will either (a) cash the IOUs against assets (colonize, already happening) or (b) take a massive bath (presently being solved with more IOUs). Neither bodes well for indebted, IOU-issuing states - which includes the EU, UK and USA.

[Gargamel]

Sump Scraper said:

I'm just having a quick look through the treaty and a few things worry me.


http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/1216838/treat...

2. The ESM shall have full legal personality; it shall have full legal capacity to:
(a) acquire and dispose of movable and immovable property;
(b) contract;
(c) be a party to legal proceedings; and
(d) enter into a headquarter agreement and/or protocols as necessary for ensuring that its legal
status and its privileges and immunities are recognised and enforced.

3. The ESM, its property, funding and assets, wherever located and by whomsoever held, shall
enjoy immunity from every form of judicial process except to the extent that the ESM expressly
waives its immunity for the purpose of any proceedings or by the terms of any contract, including
the documentation of the funding instruments.

4. The property, funding and assets of the ESM shall, wherever located and by whomsoever
held, be immune from search, requisition, confiscation, expropriation or any other form of seizure,
taking or foreclosure by executive, judicial, administrative or legislative action.

5. The archives of the ESM and all documents belonging to the ESM or held by it, shall
be inviolable.

The premises of the ESM shall be inviolable.

7. The official communications of the ESM shall be accorded by each ESM Member and by
each state which has recognised the legal status and the privileges and immunities of the ESM, the
same treatment as it accords to the official communications of an ESM Member.

8. To the extent necessary to carry out the activities provided for in this Treaty, all property,
funding and assets of the ESM shall be free from restrictions, regulations, controls and moratoria of
any nature.

9. The ESM shall be exempted from any requirement to be authorised or licensed as a credit
institution, investment services provider or other authorised licensed or regulated entity under the laws of each ESM Member.


As I live in Ireland and will be voting on this, should I be worried?

There is other things in the treaty that I'm not to happy about,these are just a few that stand out.

Yes you should be worried - no-one absolutely no-one in there right mind should vote for this. In vol 1 there were some links to the full horror of this, and there is a great video on you tube too.

Directors will be permanently immune to prosecution. total immunity for all involved. No democratic process can ever remove them once they are created.

Honestly - (and I don't often emote) This is a step towards Fascism or being generous you could say it created an entity which in the wrong hands could have the legal and juristictional tools to BANKRUPT every nation in Europe.

[Digga]

bosscerbera said:

The recipients of IOUs will either (a) cash the IOUs against assets (colonize, already happening) or (b) take a massive bath (presently being solved with more IOUs). Neither bodes well for indebted, IOU-issuing states - which includes the EU, UK and USA.

9/10 Philip. You forgot to mention the other favoured solution to economic duress; war.

Gargamel said:

Honestly - (and I don't often emote) This is a step towards Fascism or being generous you could say it created an entity which in the wrong hands could have the legal and juristictional tools to BANKRUPT every nation in Europe.

I agree this is quite sinister and the implications are far reaching. I'm very concerned that unlike Gargamel, most of those voting will not have bothered (or had opportunity) to read the detail or have it explained to them. Until it's too late of course.

[bosscerbera]

Digga said:

bosscerbera said:

The recipients of IOUs will either (a) cash the IOUs against assets (colonize, already happening) or (b) take a massive bath (presently being solved with more IOUs). Neither bodes well for indebted, IOU-issuing states - which includes the EU, UK and USA.

9/10 Philip. You forgot to mention the other favoured solution to economic duress; war.

Gargamel said:

Honestly - (and I don't often emote) This is a step towards Fascism or being generous you could say it created an entity which in the wrong hands could have the legal and juristictional tools to BANKRUPT every nation in Europe.

I agree this is quite sinister and the implications are far reaching. I'm very concerned that unlike Gargamel, most of those voting will not have bothered (or had opportunity) to read the detail or have it explained to them. Until it's too late of course.

Mmmm, I didn't forget; I'm not convinced that it IS that likely an outcome - fight over resources, yes, but fight over unpaid bills?

Civil unrest within bankrupt states is highly likely. A kind of terrorism where a bankrupt state seeks to 'threaten' another state in a bid to reopen trade is also a possibility - i.e. good old fashioned protection racket to get stuff rather than earn/pay for it.

[Digga]

Yes resources (and who controls them) will become ever more important.

I can also see that even China is aware that it is daily in 'technical' breach of international trade laws and is, to an extent (although this is eroding) tempered by the fact.

[slow_poke]

Sump Scraper said:

As I live in Ireland and will be voting on this, should I be worried?

All I need to know is that Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour are backing a "Yes" vote.

That right there is good enough to get a "No" vote out of me.

[Gargamel]

slow_poke said:

All I need to know is that Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour are backing a "Yes" vote.

That right there is good enough to get a "No" vote out of me.

Watch this in relation to the new treaty

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNa5k0KCVbw


Shocking

[bosscerbera]

Gargamel said:

Watch this in relation to the new treaty

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNa5k0KCVbw

Shocking

Shocking. Insufficient emoting?

[Gargamel]

bosscerbera said:

Shocking. Insufficient emoting?

Will it's a clean thread mecifully idiot free, so I didn't want to lower the tone - or be subject to an EU arrest warrant for giving it the full rant...

[hidetheelephants]

Sump Scraper said:

scary totalitarian stuff which amounts to:

Please pull down your pants, bend over and no complaining if it hurts as nanny knows best; it's only rape if I don't own you.

I feel the need to start building a barricade and laying in supplies for making molotov cocktails; I don't like it when that happens.

[Gary11]

Gargamel said:

Will it's a clean thread mecifully idiot free, so I didn't want to lower the tone - or be subject to an EU arrest warrant for giving it the full rant...

Free indeed from pithicoids and cretins!
Made me smirk not one item on beeb or sky about Greek default last night....unlike the euronews channel who majored on it.