How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Mr Whippy said:
010101 said:
Mr Whippy said:
Something will work well, the eventual deflation of debt by rampant inflation.
At that point interest rates will go up.
It's been the goal since day one of the 2007/2008 crash. They bailed out to stop a crash. They want to do an inverted crash and it'll happen once they've pumped enough pretend money into the system.
By my math, the volume of liquidity applied multipled by wage inflation achieved equals sweet fanny can we please denounce Keynes as wrong.At that point interest rates will go up.
It's been the goal since day one of the 2007/2008 crash. They bailed out to stop a crash. They want to do an inverted crash and it'll happen once they've pumped enough pretend money into the system.
The liquidity is sat in banks and bubbled balance sheets far away from the plebs salaries... for now.
Keynes also believed in the abundance of capital as a background economic non-event.
I have a good idea that we are going to find out that it is'nt.
Dave_ST220 said:
Jimboka said:
Mines increased by around 50% since this 'how far will priced fall' thread started in 2012...
It started way before then Most seem to be falling up too.....A couple of interesting articles, which seems to be cutting through some of the smoke screen.
http://www.cityam.com/235213/why-you-shouldnt-just...
and then the usual reporting on Nine Elms in it's continual spiral downwards but there is an interesting graph near the end that shows volumes against previous years e.g. 30-40% lower volumes than in 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/...
Combined with global economic issues, brexit e.t.c, affordability being the joke that it is. You would probably expect house prices to drop (as they are in many areas e.g. I have been seeing asking price drops in Kilburn, Hampstead, Warwick Ave, Kentish Town e.t.c back to figures not seen for 12 months +, whilst new build prices are through the roof. I received an email for a 1 bed new build in Ladbroke Grove for £795k and a 2 bed at £965k +. Just crazy.
However HTB 40% and demand from BTL pre April will keep things ticking over for a few more months imo.
UBS put Hong Kong and London in red bubble territory last year (London was the highest)http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/29/london-house-prices-most-overvalued-world-ubs
Look what has happened to HK since.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-18/...
However London is London, who knows where it will go.
http://www.cityam.com/235213/why-you-shouldnt-just...
and then the usual reporting on Nine Elms in it's continual spiral downwards but there is an interesting graph near the end that shows volumes against previous years e.g. 30-40% lower volumes than in 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/...
Combined with global economic issues, brexit e.t.c, affordability being the joke that it is. You would probably expect house prices to drop (as they are in many areas e.g. I have been seeing asking price drops in Kilburn, Hampstead, Warwick Ave, Kentish Town e.t.c back to figures not seen for 12 months +, whilst new build prices are through the roof. I received an email for a 1 bed new build in Ladbroke Grove for £795k and a 2 bed at £965k +. Just crazy.
However HTB 40% and demand from BTL pre April will keep things ticking over for a few more months imo.
UBS put Hong Kong and London in red bubble territory last year (London was the highest)http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/oct/29/london-house-prices-most-overvalued-world-ubs
Look what has happened to HK since.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-18/...
However London is London, who knows where it will go.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 24th February 10:20
turbobloke said:
Those are real asking prices in the real world which reflect somebody's view of the market position in the real world.
Even so
I see what you are saying, but how many have they sold? I am not personally privy to that information. It sounds like a Nine Elms disaster to me. There is a difference between setting a price and actually getting people to part with the cash i.e HK's issue at the moment.Even so
When 1 bed flats in Notting Hill are £750k in a period property, I struggle to see who would want a 1 bed flat for more in neighbouring Ladbroke Grove.
Edit: A quick rightmove check actually shows 1 bed flats at around 45 sqm in Notting Hill starting at around £500k. So even more ludicrous.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 24th February 10:37
V6Alfisti said:
turbobloke said:
Those are real asking prices in the real world which reflect somebody's view of the market position in the real world.
Even so
I see what you are saying, but how many have they sold? I am not personally privy to that information. It sounds like a Nine Elms disaster to me. There is a difference between setting a price and actually getting people to part with the cash i.e HK's issue at the moment.Even so
When 1 bed flats in Notting Hill are £750k in a period property, I struggle to see who would want a 1 bed flat for more in neighbouring Ladbroke Grove.
Edit: A quick rightmove check actually shows 1 bed flats at around 45 sqm in Notting Hill starting at around £500k. So even more ludicrous.
all good news at the moment. I think the press are 6 months behind.
Morgan Stanley 20% fall coming . - it's already happened
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/morgan-stanley-...
TW think nine elms is fked:
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/taylor-wimpey-b...
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/jim-armitage-ba...
Morgan Stanley 20% fall coming . - it's already happened
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/morgan-stanley-...
TW think nine elms is fked:
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/taylor-wimpey-b...
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/jim-armitage-ba...
Things in the prime & super prime market are cooling for sure and I think we'll see a fair few developers who did their appraisals predicated on the market rising up to meet the hurdle catch a cold but I'm yet to see it quite as apocalyptically as you Chris.
Are you at MiPIM by the way? We could have pistonheads drinks one evening....
Are you at MiPIM by the way? We could have pistonheads drinks one evening....
ClaphamGT3 said:
Things in the prime & super prime market are cooling for sure and I think we'll see a fair few developers who did their appraisals predicated on the market rising up to meet the hurdle catch a cold but I'm yet to see it quite as apocalyptically as you Chris.
Are you at MiPIM by the way? We could have pistonheads drinks one evening....
nah, I was going to go but have bailed. off to Singapore HK KL instead. Are you at MiPIM by the way? We could have pistonheads drinks one evening....
you can get a 25/30% discount at plenty of schemes now. that's a huge drop
I think even the most bullish have come to accept new build PCL is going to be a bit choppy, the question is the extent of the impact on more traditional properties.
Not seeing an issue so far with Georgian//Victorian stuff, well done, in z2/3, but heavy drops in Nine Elms and the like could make the contrast with a 1M 2 bed in Fulham/Chiswick/West Ken somewhat questionable...
Not seeing an issue so far with Georgian//Victorian stuff, well done, in z2/3, but heavy drops in Nine Elms and the like could make the contrast with a 1M 2 bed in Fulham/Chiswick/West Ken somewhat questionable...
z4RRSchris said:
queens wharf? or Fulham riverside?
both overpriced. you can buy resale a cheaper than direct stock
Queens wharf. I was out for a strole with swmbo on Sunday along the Thames path. One of her friends is looking at moving into somewhere near. Currently renting on the north side of Putney Bridge road. Way way out of what I'll ever be able to get into but I'll pass on what you mentioned with regards to resale's.both overpriced. you can buy resale a cheaper than direct stock
Direct reply to the headed question.
Bought my house 42 months ago. Next door is a similar house, but without my extension. There was an old girl who lived there up until three weeks ago. The downstairs is clean but with old fashioned decoration. Upstairs has been unused for some years and needs a bit of work. I'd budget for new windows, new heating but the oven/hob is hardly used and fairly modern.
Probate is going through and a chap came to value the house for probate, which I'm told undercuts the resale value to an extent.
Going by the estimate, even if my larger house attracts the same price as the valuation, its value has increased by a minute fraction under 32%. Not much use to me as I doubt I will move again, but sweet news for my inheritors.
Bought my house 42 months ago. Next door is a similar house, but without my extension. There was an old girl who lived there up until three weeks ago. The downstairs is clean but with old fashioned decoration. Upstairs has been unused for some years and needs a bit of work. I'd budget for new windows, new heating but the oven/hob is hardly used and fairly modern.
Probate is going through and a chap came to value the house for probate, which I'm told undercuts the resale value to an extent.
Going by the estimate, even if my larger house attracts the same price as the valuation, its value has increased by a minute fraction under 32%. Not much use to me as I doubt I will move again, but sweet news for my inheritors.
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