How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
DoubleSix said:
seem to have less material aspirations.
Possibly the stupidest thing to say yet. The youth have never been so flipping materialistic. Girls at my daughters school would have voted to remain as they worried that Nando's would leave. As long as they have the latest iPhone all is well.LittleEnus said:
DoubleSix said:
seem to have less material aspirations.
Possibly the stupidest thing to say yet. The youth have never been so flipping materialistic. Girls at my daughters school would have voted to remain as they worried that Nando's would leave. As long as they have the latest iPhone all is well.
mike74 said:
Al U said:
Had a look on rightmove just now in the area I was/am (still not sure if I am pulling out yet) buying and while a few properties have been reduced everything looks business as usual.
Things aren't going to happen that quickly!... But things will happen.
king brexit. If when I come to remortgage I can't get a decent deal or I go into negative equity I'm in the fortunate position of being able to afford to tread water. I think things will go back to normal quicker than most people think.A lot of people are probably going to pull out of their purchases and wait for the prices to go down but what's the cost of waiting? Not just financially but in terms of actually being in a place of your own and living how you please. What if prices don't go down enough to have made it worth the wait? Some places suggest that due to the demand for houses that there won't actually be a drop, just a slow down in the pace of increases.
Al U said:
This is the thing people say all of these things but no one knows for sure. All the articles are littered with maybe's like "might", "could", "may" etc. I've decided I'm not going to put my life on hold for the sake of the fking brexit. If when I come to remortgage I can't get a decent deal or I go into negative equity I'm in the fortunate position of being able to afford to tread water. I think things will go back to normal quicker than most people think.
A lot of people are probably going to pull out of their purchases and wait for the prices to go down but what's the cost of waiting? Not just financially but in terms of actually being in a place of your own and living how you please. What if prices don't go down enough to have made it worth the wait? Some places suggest that due to the demand for houses that there won't actually be a drop, just a slow down in the pace of increases.
Of course, no-one will say "it will definitely', no-one has a crystal ball but probability and logic are at their strongest ever for house drops but by no means 100% of all 'experts'.king brexit. If when I come to remortgage I can't get a decent deal or I go into negative equity I'm in the fortunate position of being able to afford to tread water. I think things will go back to normal quicker than most people think.A lot of people are probably going to pull out of their purchases and wait for the prices to go down but what's the cost of waiting? Not just financially but in terms of actually being in a place of your own and living how you please. What if prices don't go down enough to have made it worth the wait? Some places suggest that due to the demand for houses that there won't actually be a drop, just a slow down in the pace of increases.
Anecdotal but indicative is my girlfriends mother who owns a number of property across London (some worth £1-2 mill individually) and the North (sub £200k type properties) is now seriously concerned and looking to sell some of the assets to weather the likely storm and maintain the ability to service mortgages. The GF's mother just a week ago and the last 2 years was the most convinced of ever increasing house prices whether it was slow or not, now she is talking about a hopeful 10% drop which is manageable.
Sounds like you have looked at the facts and come to your conclusion. At least you have been made aware of the dangers.
I guess it also depends on the value of the property, 10% of £150k is a lot less risky than 10% of £600k!
Good luck, but as you can tell I am certainly thinking it will go the opposite way and not just a slow down in 'growth'!
Edited by V6Alfisti on Sunday 26th June 17:14
Piersman2 said:
LittleEnus said:
DoubleSix said:
seem to have less material aspirations.
Possibly the stupidest thing to say yet. The youth have never been so flipping materialistic. Girls at my daughters school would have voted to remain as they worried that Nando's would leave. As long as they have the latest iPhone all is well.My own peer group headed straight for The City for the biggest pay check they could find and worked hard to get it - that was their prority.
That seems a pretty uncool thing to do by modern standards; lifestyle is too important to them. Work/life balance is a modern saying no?? Looking at what millennials want from employers these days... flexibility, dynamism, societal contribution etc it seems the paycheck is no longer the be all and end all.
But hey that's just round here in a lefty dominated urban area with craft beer hang outs on every corner - I'm sure if you live in Essex or something then there's plenty of evidence to the contrary.
Edited by DoubleSix on Sunday 26th June 20:32
Al U said:
Surprised this thread doesn't stat nearer the top, you would think that most people's highest asset would be a big talking point given the turbulence.
Because said asset is a home which is traded perhaps every 10 years on average (a guess). It isn't listed on an exchange and traded daily so most people don't focus on it. Prices are more a concern for investors not single home ownerThe -18% figure was not an absolute one, which is why Osborne has, in conjunction with his later "punishment budget", lost credibility.
The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.
It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.
It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
Croutons said:
The -18% figure was not an absolute one, which is why Osborne has, in conjunction with his later "punishment budget", lost credibility.
The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.
It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
It's a sad fact that the poor are the ones who get fleeced time and again.The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.
It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
Croutons said:
The -18% figure was not an absolute one, which is why Osborne has, in conjunction with his later "punishment budget", lost credibility.
The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.
It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
Do you have a link to the 10% / 8% , as that is quite comical if that's how they came to the figure!. Although I doubt anyone held much faith in that figure just because it was from the BoE. People form their own opinions up/down.The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.
It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
However growth slowed markedly since April, with I think represented a monthly growth of 0.2 % I would be surprised if they came back with those figures after seeing April/May numbers, but entirely possible.
Either way, many others including agents, property portfolios, banks e.t.c that were contrary to that view. Probably why Foxtons dipped 30% following the brexit news.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Sunday 26th June 23:04
V6Alfisti said:
Do you have a link to the 10% / 8% , as that is quite comical if that's how they came to the figure!. Although I doubt anyone held much faith in that figure just because it was from the BoE. People form their own opinions up/down.
Struggling to find anything other than second hand reporting on it- end 1St para here is a pointer, will dig more later if I canEdited by V6Alfisti on Sunday 26th June 23:04
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601854/No...
Osborne is well known for this mind, I remember seeing a post budget interview with him where he repeated the phrase "we've reduced the deficit by one third" probably 20 times in 3 minutes when he'd done no such thing. The rate of growth of the deficit was reduced by 1/3 against the estimate, but he chose to twist...
Burwood said:
Croutons said:
The -18% figure was not an absolute one, which is why Osborne has, in conjunction with his later "punishment budget", lost credibility.
The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.
It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
It's a sad fact that the poor are the ones who get fleeced time and again.The analysis from the BoE indicated in a Brexit scenario prices would rise by 8% over a 2 year period, but if we remained =+10% over the same, so the odious little twerp used the "fall by 18%" line without adding "relative to where they would be if we remain". Naturally his aim was to spook you in to voting for him, which doesn't seem to have worked, other than people remembering the 18% figure.
It is worth pointing out to those of you immediately binning off your purchass that, regardless of the outcome, the BoE was expecting rises. Naturally if things play out that way...
Croutons said:
Struggling to find anything other than second hand reporting on it- end 1St para here is a pointer, will dig more later if I can
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601854/No...
Osborne is well known for this mind, I remember seeing a post budget interview with him where he repeated the phrase "we've reduced the deficit by one third" probably 20 times in 3 minutes when he'd done no such thing. The rate of growth of the deficit was reduced by 1/3 against the estimate, but he chose to twist...
Thanks Croutons, sorry that I asked (I hate lazy buggers that can't search for things themselves!). I was struggling to find the direct source too.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601854/No...
Osborne is well known for this mind, I remember seeing a post budget interview with him where he repeated the phrase "we've reduced the deficit by one third" probably 20 times in 3 minutes when he'd done no such thing. The rate of growth of the deficit was reduced by 1/3 against the estimate, but he chose to twist...
Playing devils advocate, I was wondering if Osborne saw the dramatic slowing of house prices and thought he could blame it on Brexit should it occur.
I think everything is all a little untenable for Osborne right now.
Referring to an earlier post: The point about the 3 tiers of people earlier is no doubt absolutely right, but it's interesting that people I know including BTL'ers, developers e.t.c are now genuinely worried and are talking about the limits of how far they think it will drop and what is serviceable.
I personally don't expect a huge drop this year, more realistically I suspect further reduction on volumes and a modest drop of a few percent. However there will be the odd bargain, there already was before brexit with some properties being about £100k less than the market average. It is 2017 imo that is more likely to be interesting for larger drops, if we see 5-6 months of negative growth that will be the reality check for anyone on the fence about drops and the impact of uncertainly in the market.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff