How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

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Thankyou4calling

10,607 posts

174 months

Thursday 22nd September 2016
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Burwood said:
he is talking about the new builds like battersea and other central London where they are trying to get 2M + for a 2 bed. And who is surprised no one wants a bar of it. There are very few unique places where i'd buy a flat in a block.A 3000 or whatever giant wart like Battersea aint one.
I was referring to the posts by red sir.

Burwood

18,709 posts

247 months

Thursday 22nd September 2016
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Thankyou4calling said:
Burwood said:
he is talking about the new builds like battersea and other central London where they are trying to get 2M + for a 2 bed. And who is surprised no one wants a bar of it. There are very few unique places where i'd buy a flat in a block.A 3000 or whatever giant wart like Battersea aint one.
I was referring to the posts by red sir.
you found the quote button hehe

z4RRSchris

11,300 posts

180 months

Friday 23rd September 2016
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p1stonhead said:
I thought you said demand for your prime development a few pages back is through the roof?
very site specific, two demand v good at full asking, one having to give big discounts.

Randy Winkman

16,154 posts

190 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
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http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/harrods-fine...

I know it's only a tiny part of the market but this story about Harrods Fine Wines Department closing says:

"But it appears the champagne bubble has burst. Property prices in the area are plunging, foreign buyers have all but vanished and a planning application lodged with the council reveals Harrods proposes converting the department into an evening restaurant."

Burwood

18,709 posts

247 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
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Randy Winkman said:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/harrods-fine...

I know it's only a tiny part of the market but this story about Harrods Fine Wines Department closing says:

"But it appears the champagne bubble has burst. Property prices in the area are plunging, foreign buyers have all but vanished and a planning application lodged with the council reveals Harrods proposes converting the department into an evening restaurant."
Did you know that planning is sympathetic if you are losing money on the status quo. In other words, complete tosh to support their intentions.

Hitch

6,107 posts

195 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
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And it is hardly going to be the Harrods Soup Kitchen For The Great Unwashed is it?!

tight fart

2,920 posts

274 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
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Just taken a property off the market in sth Devon as it seems dead down there, a nice 3 bed detatched in a good position that has only had 1 sale in 5 years in the close. Ours went on at £389k (original not extended), within days next door and next door but one went on as well, at £490k (nice extension) and £425k (small ext)in 6 months I think we were the only one to have viewings, 3 max.
Thankfully we had an offer to rent so we will try again when the tennants leave.
Houses near home (Epping) seem to be selling within days at silly prices, and anything on the crossrail route seem a gold mine. (Friends brought in Brentwood, gone up 25% in 18 months)

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

228 months

Wednesday 12th October 2016
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It has taken a while to filter through the reports, as they often represent transaction from months before, rather than more recent sale prices.

Unsurprisingly, a lot of the major news outlets aren't reporting on it.

However the headline is that London is seen as the 'underperformer' with an average drop of 2.5% (many estate agents reporting 10% as typical in some areas). Apparently the biggest fall since 2012.

http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/first-uk-house-p...

Matt p

1,039 posts

209 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2016
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4% inflation being thrown around today in the Beeb. What's people's thoughts on this? Is it more crying wolf like this time last year?. Due to what was being reported this time last year about high Inflation just around the corner I fixed my mortgage for security and piece of mind for 5 years. (Maybe not the smartest move in hindsight)

RYH64E

7,960 posts

245 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2016
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Matt p said:
4% inflation being thrown around today in the Beeb. What's people's thoughts on this? Is it more crying wolf like this time last year?. Due to what was being reported this time last year about high Inflation just around the corner I fixed my mortgage for security and piece of mind for 5 years. (Maybe not the smartest move in hindsight)
There's definitely going to be some inflation in the pipeline due to currency devaluation, business to business prices are up around 10% in my industry and those kind of increases filter through eventually. Imported goods in the shops will be showing similar rises any time soon.

tomw2000

2,508 posts

196 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2016
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turbobloke said:
tomw2000 said:
turbobloke said:
It may be that my ISP is on a tea break but the link to that Ropsley property is now loading much slower than before, presumably quite a few PHers on this thread are taking a look? Best of luck with the sale tomw2000 smile
Update: I never expected folk to queue round the corner to view it but we've had 7 viewings.

Most of which were tyre kickers imo.

But now have 1 offer at asking price....let you know how that pans out. I'm realistic about such things. But you never know. Might work out. Fingers Crossed.
Sounds promising, best of luck.
After a mere 15mths the sale completes this Friday (exchanged last Friday). I always thought it'd take over a year....but it's good it's finally happened.

Burwood

18,709 posts

247 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2016
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RYH64E said:
Matt p said:
4% inflation being thrown around today in the Beeb. What's people's thoughts on this? Is it more crying wolf like this time last year?. Due to what was being reported this time last year about high Inflation just around the corner I fixed my mortgage for security and piece of mind for 5 years. (Maybe not the smartest move in hindsight)
There's definitely going to be some inflation in the pipeline due to currency devaluation, business to business prices are up around 10% in my industry and those kind of increases filter through eventually. Imported goods in the shops will be showing similar rises any time soon.
agreed- all imported furniture of which there is a huge amount is all going up at least 10%. Electronics-up, white goods.

Pork

9,453 posts

235 months

Thursday 3rd November 2016
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Aren't there Apple products in the basket? That alone will push inflation up!

What are people's views on prices now? We had an offer on a house accepted a month or so back and as basically first time buyers, were nervous our timing is a little off.

I don't want prices to carry on climbing, but could do without them dropping the week we complete particularly as it might be a relatively short term home.

Burwood

18,709 posts

247 months

Friday 4th November 2016
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Pork said:
Aren't there Apple products in the basket? That alone will push inflation up!

What are people's views on prices now? We had an offer on a house accepted a month or so back and as basically first time buyers, were nervous our timing is a little off.

I don't want prices to carry on climbing, but could do without them dropping the week we complete particularly as it might be a relatively short term home.
Your timing as you call it will never be spot on-everyone in same boat. The best advice you can take is to make a call on whether you want to be a renter forever or a home owner. A speculator must consider things to the micro level. A 5 yr+ plan is a different scenario. If you can afford the house and you like it, buy it. Yo will never know week to week or even month to month.

walm

10,609 posts

203 months

Friday 4th November 2016
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Burwood said:
Pork said:
Aren't there Apple products in the basket? That alone will push inflation up!

What are people's views on prices now? We had an offer on a house accepted a month or so back and as basically first time buyers, were nervous our timing is a little off.

I don't want prices to carry on climbing, but could do without them dropping the week we complete particularly as it might be a relatively short term home.
Your timing as you call it will never be spot on-everyone in same boat. The best advice you can take is to make a call on whether you want to be a renter forever or a home owner. A speculator must consider things to the micro level. A 5 yr+ plan is a different scenario. If you can afford the house and you like it, buy it. Yo will never know week to week or even month to month.
I think that's good advice but consider how significant the transaction costs might be (stamp, legals, EAs when you sell, mortgage fees etc...) - they can be a reasonable % of the value of the house and negate any short term price rise.

And don't forget to compare the cost of rent vs. INTEREST rather than rent vs. REPAYMENT on the cost of the mortgage.

Burwood

18,709 posts

247 months

Friday 4th November 2016
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walm said:
Burwood said:
Pork said:
Aren't there Apple products in the basket? That alone will push inflation up!

What are people's views on prices now? We had an offer on a house accepted a month or so back and as basically first time buyers, were nervous our timing is a little off.

I don't want prices to carry on climbing, but could do without them dropping the week we complete particularly as it might be a relatively short term home.
Your timing as you call it will never be spot on-everyone in same boat. The best advice you can take is to make a call on whether you want to be a renter forever or a home owner. A speculator must consider things to the micro level. A 5 yr+ plan is a different scenario. If you can afford the house and you like it, buy it. Yo will never know week to week or even month to month.
I think that's good advice but consider how significant the transaction costs might be (stamp, legals, EAs when you sell, mortgage fees etc...) - they can be a reasonable % of the value of the house and negate any short term price rise.

And don't forget to compare the cost of rent vs. INTEREST rather than rent vs. REPAYMENT on the cost of the mortgage.
All valid but the big unknown factor throws in so many subjective criteria. In the late 90s I worked with a guy who was desperate to buy for the first time and he assed about for 2.5 years-he literally viewed 100 properties. I understand it's a big decision for most people, but some balance/perspective is needed.

TheLordJohn

5,746 posts

147 months

Friday 4th November 2016
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By all means compare rent vs interest of the mortgage payment, but at least if you're paying a mortgage off you're paying something off for yourself.
Renting, on anything more than short term, is a mugs game.

walm

10,609 posts

203 months

Friday 4th November 2016
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TheLordJohn said:
By all means compare rent vs interest of the mortgage payment, but at least if you're paying a mortgage off you're paying something off for yourself.
Renting, on anything more than short term, is a mugs game.
This just sounds like a financial fail to me, no offence.
If you are paying off the mortgage then you are saving (at a terrible interest rate as it happens).
There is nothing to stop you saving while renting.

This issue today, as Tonker's numbers show is that rent is FAR more expensive than the interest.
He has £48k vs. let's say a 2ppt fix? So £25k on the full £1.25m. (Obviously you don't mortgage at 100% but taking account opportunity cost of the equity).

This is true in many cases - you see rental yields at 4% vs. 2% interest rates on mortgages.

This is VERY VERY rare (but has been going on for a while now admittedly!).
Normally rent and interest are much more closely aligned so you need to believe in house price rises to make ownership not a "mugs game"!

DaveCWK

1,996 posts

175 months

Friday 4th November 2016
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
I don't understand how this sector of the market isn't completely dead...

walm

10,609 posts

203 months

Friday 4th November 2016
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DaveCWK said:
I don't understand how this sector of the market isn't completely dead...
Me neither.
If you think you have two more moves in you, you really have to skip one!
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