How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[mx-6]

I don't want to get into making a political point about Brexit one way or the other, but I think it's bound to cause some uncertainy and potentially a little volatility over the coming years. But I strongly doubt that it will precipitate any kind of significant house price "correction", and certainly no collaspe. I see the overall result as somewhat negative on the economic side of things but I'm sure that for the most part it will be business as usual.

[turbobloke]

Going back to the land of the multi-£million shoebox and not too far back this year:

Ten-year house price forecast - could the average London home really cost £867k by 2027

Lack of affordable homes will continue to drive price growth despite market uncertainty, say experts

http://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/ho...

Take a look at the interactive graphic and some of the 2037 numbers...Thank heavens (and foxtons) for experts!

[Derek Chevalier]

superkartracer said:

kiethton said:

tleefox said:

bks - complete and utter bks.

Have you heard of cities such as Bristol, Birmingham, Manchester, Cardiff?

Please point me toward an investment bank in Manchester/Bristol/Cardiff/Birmingham with a sizeable front office function and progression opportunities, inside the firm or out.

https://www.coutts.com/about/overview.html

I've a few million stashed here .

PS. + 1 on the utter bks .

I'm not aware of the investment banking side of Coutts

[Derek Chevalier]

DoubleSix said:

kiethton said:

tleefox said:

bks - complete and utter bks.

Have you heard of cities such as Bristol, Birmingham, Manchester, Cardiff?

Please point me toward an investment bank in Manchester/Bristol/Cardiff/Birmingham with a sizeable front office function and progression opportunities, inside the firm or out.

I spent 10 years in the City as a stockbroker, i now do much the same thing in Bath... open your mind/eyes.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean by stockbroker, I took it as cash equity sales which is a dying area as everything goes electronic.

[Derek Chevalier]

superkartracer said:

Welshbeef said:

Rovinghawk said:

Unless you can 100% accurately define "best job" then it's not a fact.

Technically leading jobs.

In what fields? , banking i assume? .

Just one place i can think of ( among many others (outside London ) ) https://www.uk-cpi.com , world leading tech and innovation.

But they won't pay anywhere near banking rates, even after the 2008 downturn.

[Rovinghawk]

Derek Chevalier said:

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean by stockbroker, I took it as cash equity sales which is a dying area as everything goes electronic.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding things going electronic- surely there are computers & broadband connections outside London? I even manage to do some work on a laptop at a table on my south patio, over a hundred miles from London.

[FN2TypeR]

Rovinghawk said:

Derek Chevalier said:

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean by stockbroker, I took it as cash equity sales which is a dying area as everything goes electronic.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding things going electronic- surely there are computers & broadband connections outside London? I even manage to do some work on a laptop at a table on my south patio, over a hundred miles from London.

Lies. You live in a mud and wicker hovel and you are posting from a stolen mobile phone, it was taken from a Londoner who dared to venture out of their glorious city enclave.

How will you charge it when the battery runs out, I wonder?

[Rovinghawk]

FN2TypeR said:

Lies. You live in a mud and wicker hovel

Rumbled- you've obviously seen my place.

FN2TypeR said:

and you are posting from a stolen mobile phone, it was taken from a Londoner who dared to venture out of their glorious city enclave.

No- the Londoner took pity on my yokel status and gave me the phone as an act of charity.

FN2TypeR said:

How will you charge it when the battery runs out, I wonder?

Lack of air pollution will allow a solar charger to work.

[Derek Chevalier]

Rovinghawk said:

Derek Chevalier said:

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean by stockbroker, I took it as cash equity sales which is a dying area as everything goes electronic.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding things going electronic- surely there are computers & broadband connections outside London? I even manage to do some work on a laptop at a table on my south patio, over a hundred miles from London.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_trading

[Lucas Ayde]

mx-6 said:

I don't want to get into making a political point about Brexit one way or the other, but I think it's bound to cause some uncertainy and potentially a little volatility over the coming years. But I strongly doubt that it will precipitate any kind of significant house price "correction", and certainly no collaspe. I see the overall result as somewhat negative on the economic side of things but I'm sure that for the most part it will be business as usual.

The house price bubble doesn't depend on a good economic situation - actually, it has been the opposite case as the ultra-low interest rates being used to prop the economy up for the last 8 years have meant cheap and easy credit for would be buyers ... and low returns in traditionally safe things (like government bonds) have encouraged speculation in bubbles such as property.

If anything, the worse the economic news, the better the outlook for keeping the property bubble inflated. Same principle applies to stock markets too - 'bad news is good news' as it means near zero interest rates and money printing far more likely to happen/continue, raising asset prices.

All looks good - until something snaps and the market crashes of course.

[Rovinghawk]

Derek Chevalier said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_trading

This article mentions that physical location is rapidly becoming less of an issue & fewer people are involved. This doesn't support your position as well as you might wish it to.

[tleefox]

kiethton said:

Please point me toward an investment bank in Manchester/Bristol/Cardiff/Birmingham with a sizeable front office function and progression opportunities, inside the firm or out.

FW Capital / Finance Wales in Cardiff.
Triodos in Bristol.
Rothschild in Manchester.

Next question?

Edited by tleefox on Wednesday 12th April 15:02

[Derek Chevalier]

Rovinghawk said:

Derek Chevalier said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_trading

This article mentions that physical location is rapidly becoming less of an issue & fewer people are involved. This doesn't support your position as well as you might wish it to.

My comment was in relation to people wising to trade having direct access to market and therefore cutting out the middle man (stock broker) - think you've misunderstood.

[Derek Chevalier]

tleefox said:

kiethton said:

Please point me toward an investment bank in Manchester/Bristol/Cardiff/Birmingham with a sizeable front office function and progression opportunities, inside the firm or out.

FW Capital / Finance Wales in Cardiff.
Triodos in Bristol.
Rothschild in Manchester.

Next question?

Edited by tleefox on Wednesday 12th April 15:02

Ah yes, Triodos being the well known bulge bracket firm.

[TheLordJohn]

superkartracer said:

Can't you jump on the tube and stick another 0 on that , London pays the BEST money etc...

Lol, yes indeed.
Truck mechanics are in demand in the SE, but i rather think there's a ceiling to our earnings at the minute.

[mx-6]

Lucas Ayde said:

The house price bubble doesn't depend on a good economic situation - actually, it has been the opposite case as the ultra-low interest rates being used to prop the economy up for the last 8 years have meant cheap and easy credit for would be buyers ... and low returns in traditionally safe things (like government bonds) have encouraged speculation in bubbles such as property.

If anything, the worse the economic news, the better the outlook for keeping the property bubble inflated. Same principle applies to stock markets too - 'bad news is good news' as it means near zero interest rates and money printing far more likely to happen/continue, raising asset prices.

All looks good - until something snaps and the market crashes of course.

I certainly don't agree that a bad economic situation is good for house prices and stock markets.

When the recession/depression landed in 07/08 house prices and equities took a dive. The fact that we've had very low rates since is in part why economic condition have actually been relatively good. Okay, hardly booming but continuous growth. So I don't know why you think things are or have been bad. It's fair to say that low rates are not traditionally the sign of a healthy economy but it's something of a new paradigm that we're in.

When this economic cycle runs out of steam and we have the next actual recession, with negative growth, people losing there jobs, then I expect we may well see house prices taking a dip again, along with markets.

[turbobloke]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Such speculation relating to the immediate London market is hardly relevant in the context of ten and twenty years' time for the UK as a whole and even for London it's a tiny fraction of the deal.

[brickwall]

DoubleSix said:

kiethton said:

tleefox said:

bks - complete and utter bks.

Have you heard of cities such as Bristol, Birmingham, Manchester, Cardiff?

Please point me toward an investment bank in Manchester/Bristol/Cardiff/Birmingham with a sizeable front office function and progression opportunities, inside the firm or out.

I spent 10 years in the City as a stockbroker, i now do much the same thing in Bath... open your mind/eyes.

I think people are missing my point - I'm not saying it's impossible to make good money outside London. Far from it.

My point was:
a) A disproportionate amount of the high-wage employment (as opposed to high-earning self-employment) is in London. Be that front office IB, PE, Magic Circle, MBB consultancies, FTSE C-suite. Newspaper editors. And it's not just high-wage, it's other general 'high-status' employment - a vast proportion of the Senior Civil Service are (understandably) Whitehall-based. The largest concentration of world-class research hospitals. All the think tanks.
b) That concentration of high-wage employment is exacerbated in you're young. Find me jobs outside London where you can start on the grad scheme and within 5 years ordinarily be on £100k+. And 5 years after that be on £500k. There really aren't many.

So yes, if I had 10 years' experience in the City and enough capital, clients and capabilities to set up my own shop, I would. But for the young, doing that and making chunky money is pretty hard. Certainly a lot harder than joining Freshfields and keeping your head down.

P.s. Bath is a lovely place - my grandparents lived on Great Pulteney Street for many years.

[Welshbeef]

I understand Bath is pricy it's a lovely city.

However Bristol is a sthole, a bit "Southend" so to speak. I'd be hugely surprised if those with £ would choose to live here over massively nicer areas away from Bristol. Unless of course I've only seen the horrible town centre the route in and the Aztec West /Filton areas.

[DoubleSix]

Welshbeef said:

I understand Bath is pricy it's a lovely city.

However Bristol is a sthole, a bit "Southend" so to speak. I'd be hugely surprised if those with £ would choose to live here over massively nicer areas away from Bristol. Unless of course I've only seen the horrible town centre the route in and the Aztec West /Filton areas.

Utter nonsense.