How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[TLandCruiser]

When interest rates rise causing mortgage rates to increase and other credit, won't this hit the automotive industry harder? In that people who have stretched themselves with credit will now be ditching new cars to pay their mortgages?

[Welshbeef]

DoubleSix said:

Utter nonsense.

The bear pit in the centre is a no go area after dark especially the underpass.
Filton - and I've been all the way up to the Airbus site is a dive.
Aztec West area doesn't look nice and is closely surrounded by 2x motorways so loads of noise.
Bristol golf course isn't that nice - clubhouse (take the gents toilets for instance is falling apart).

[DoubleSix]

Welshbeef said:

DoubleSix said:

Utter nonsense.

The bear pit in the centre is a no go area after dark especially the underpass.
Filton - and I've been all the way up to the Airbus site is a dive.
Aztec West area doesn't look nice and is closely surrounded by 2x motorways so loads of noise.
Bristol golf course isn't that nice - clubhouse (take the gents toilets for instance is falling apart).

Just stop, it's embarrassing. You clearly have no knowledge of the city so shush now.

[Carl_Manchester]

Derek Chevalier said:

tleefox said:

kiethton said:

Please point me toward an investment bank in Manchester/Bristol/Cardiff/Birmingham with a sizeable front office function and progression opportunities, inside the firm or out.

FW Capital / Finance Wales in Cardiff.
Triodos in Bristol.
Rothschild in Manchester.

Next question?

Edited by tleefox on Wednesday 12th April 15:02

Ah yes, Triodos being the well known bulge bracket firm.

Don't forget Deutsche Banks 250 peep new(ish) front-office IB function in Birmingham! If it works more will follow, no doubt about that. Schroders also had a sizable IB function in Birmingham, not sure if they still do.

Big money not necessarily in front-office IB, big bucks in corporate banking to be made.

Don't forget HSBC HQ also moving to Birmingham.

That aside, my input on the topic is that I am aware of lots of redundancy rounds going on. Not saying this is material but after a few years of boom it feels like a job bust is around the corner (job wise not necessarily house price wise).

Edited by Carl_Manchester on Thursday 13th April 00:16

[turbobloke]

We really need to see what the Daily Mail's chosen expert soothsayers say about market unsustainability. Really

This time it's eMoov and the view is to 2030 not 2027 or 2037.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-359467...

[Randy Winkman]

turbobloke said:

We really need to see what the Daily Mail's chosen expert soothsayers say about market unsustainability. Really

This time it's eMoov and the view is to 2030 not 2027 or 2037.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-359467...

There's some complex analysis in that:

"The calculations for the map from estate agents eMoov are based on the 84 per cent increase in house prices during 2000 and 2015 and applied it to the next 15 years." 


(By the way, I do appreciate you are not saying it's correct.)

[turbobloke]

Randy Winkman said:

turbobloke said:

We really need to see what the Daily Mail's chosen expert soothsayers say about market unsustainability. Really

This time it's eMoov and the view is to 2030 not 2027 or 2037.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-359467...

There's some complex analysis in that:

"The calculations for the map from estate agents eMoov are based on the 84 per cent increase in house prices during 2000 and 2015 and applied it to the next 15 years." 


(By the way, I do appreciate you are not saying it's correct.)

you can't beat balls of crystal

[kingston12]

Welshbeef said:

However Bristol is a sthole, a bit "Southend" so to speak. I'd be hugely surprised if those with £ would choose to live here over massively nicer areas away from Bristol. Unless of course I've only seen the horrible town centre the route in and the Aztec West /Filton areas.

I can't understand how a whole city can be a 's**thole'. I don't know Bristol that well, but a lot of the areas I have been to are actually very nice. I'd agree the centre is pretty grim in parts, but there are very few towns/cities of that size that aren't these days. Places like Bath have survived because of how lovely it was to start with, but most have suffered from either over development or no development at all.

Even places that are generally s**tholes, say Croydon, have some very nice parts which would be preferable to some of the places which people consider to be nice.

[Rovinghawk]

kingston12 said:

I can't understand how a whole city can be a 's**thole'.

Maybe Welshbeef was just passing through.........................

[loafer123]

kingston12 said:

I can't understand how a whole city can be a 's**thole'. I don't know Bristol that well, but a lot of the areas I have been to are actually very nice. I'd agree the centre is pretty grim in parts, but there are very few towns/cities of that size that aren't these days. Places like Bath have survived because of how lovely it was to start with, but most have suffered from either over development or no development at all.

Even places that are generally s**tholes, say Croydon, have some very nice parts which would be preferable to some of the places which people consider to be nice.

I was agreeing with you right up until the bit about Croydon.

[turbobloke]

kingston12 said:

I can't understand how a whole city can be a 's**thole'. I don't know Bristol that well, but a lot of the areas I have been to are actually very nice.
.

Quite possibly the gentlefolk in Westbury-on-Trym would agree with that

[Lucas Ayde]

mx-6 said:

I certainly don't agree that a bad economic situation is good for house prices and stock markets.

When the recession/depression landed in 07/08 house prices and equities took a dive. The fact that we've had very low rates since is in part why economic condition have actually been relatively good. Okay, hardly booming but continuous growth. So I don't know why you think things are or have been bad. It's fair to say that low rates are not traditionally the sign of a healthy economy but it's something of a new paradigm that we're in.

When this economic cycle runs out of steam and we have the next actual recession, with negative growth, people losing there jobs, then I expect we may well see house prices taking a dip again, along with markets.

That was my point - huge recession threatening in 2008 and the Government/BoE embark on reducing interest rates to almost zero, printing hundreds of billions of pounds out of thin air and all manner of 'support' for the housing market (plus loads of liquidity measures to encourage banks to lend).

Result - 8 years of low growth/stagnation in the economy generally, but rocketing house prices and share prices as all that cheap and easy money has to go somewhere and speculation is rampant. No surprise as economic policy is aimed at getting people to take risks in order to get a return and not just park their money somewhere safe (because non-risky investments now return practically nothing).

'Bad news is good news' for asset prices as the market figures the government is going to embark on even more interest rate repression and money printing to stave off collapse.

[kingston12]

loafer123 said:

kingston12 said:

I can't understand how a whole city can be a 's**thole'. I don't know Bristol that well, but a lot of the areas I have been to are actually very nice. I'd agree the centre is pretty grim in parts, but there are very few towns/cities of that size that aren't these days. Places like Bath have survived because of how lovely it was to start with, but most have suffered from either over development or no development at all.

Even places that are generally s**tholes, say Croydon, have some very nice parts which would be preferable to some of the places which people consider to be nice.

I was agreeing with you right up until the bit about Croydon.

Well, I suppose it was a bit of an extreme example!

I still think it is true, though. I'd prefer to live in one of the nicer parts of South Croydon than I would in the worse parts of Guildford for example, but if I said to someone that I prefer Croydon to Guildford they'd probably think I was mad.

[easytiger123]

Welshbeef said:

I understand Bath is pricy it's a lovely city.

However Bristol is a sthole, a bit "Southend" so to speak. I'd be hugely surprised if those with £ would choose to live here over massively nicer areas away from Bristol. Unless of course I've only seen the horrible town centre the route in and the Aztec West /Filton areas.

What a ludicrous comment. I find Bristol rather lovely and one of the few cities outside of London i'd choose to live in. Doubtless some parts of it are grim as is the case everywhere.

[_dobbo_]

DoubleSix said:

Just stop, it's embarrassing. You clearly have no knowledge of the city so shush now.

Seems like a perfectly reasonable way to judge things to me.

Tiny patch of dirt on car? It's st, scrap it.
Tiny hole in jumper? st, throw it away.
Bruise on leg? st, chop it off.
Dirt on pathway outside house? st, knock house down.

Seems quite sensible to judge a massive and diverse urban area based on having visited a tiny tiny fraction of it.

[crankedup]

l can go one better, pronouncing the town on which I live as really nice was met with hostility of the PH order. gtclapham pronounced the town as terrible and the people who live in the town as vile.
No matter the town has a wonderful Cathedral, Abbey Gardens, theatres, cinima's, jazz club,
live music venues, pubs and restraints a plenty, Regular top ten Britain in Bloom, gentile residents. Of course it has its down at heel small closets, but the town attracts an international
influx of tourists who seem pleased to visit.
But. PHer knows better but couldn't bear to admit he was wrong.
For the wrong reason it has attracted National news with the loss of young lad recently.

[loafer123]

Bury St Edmunds is a lovely place.

I would ignore GT Clapham. He has to live in Clapham.

[Borghetto]

crankedup said:

pubs and restraints.

Is S&M a big thing in your town Crankedup?

[Pork]

DoubleSix said:

Welshbeef said:

I understand Bath is pricy it's a lovely city.

However Bristol is a sthole, a bit "Southend" so to speak. I'd be hugely surprised if those with £ would choose to live here over massively nicer areas away from Bristol. Unless of course I've only seen the horrible town centre the route in and the Aztec West /Filton areas.

Utter nonsense.

I seem to recall Bristol just got named asTHE best place to live in the U.K. In 2017.

I was surprised but it suggest the above comment is a little wide of the mark.


ETA link: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/bristol-uk...

Edited by Pork on Thursday 13th April 22:26

[Pork]

TLandCruiser said:

When interest rates rise causing mortgage rates to increase and other credit, won't this hit the automotive industry harder? In that people who have stretched themselves with credit will now be ditching new cars to pay their mortgages?

I wonder that. Motor industry is seemingly all roses at the moment....but if/when the desire to sustain the economy with low interest rate wains and the decision is to push for productivity and GDP increase, apparently IRs of 4.25% would be reasonable.

Most think that's unthinkable, and maybe with government intervention,it is....


http://uk.businessinsider.com/andy-haldane-bank-of...