How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

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p1stonhead

25,579 posts

168 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
So even though you're in the top 29%, you can only afford a top 50% house.
Yes, but house ownership is not a right.

You could equally argue the same income limits your Bugatti or Sunseeker purchase options.

Is it somehow unfair that an average salary can't buy an average Learjet?
Exactly. Two wholly unremarkable £25k salaries (isnt the national average £26k) being able to afford the average house seems pretty normal to me?

Was it ever supposed to be affordable on your own?

superkartracer

8,959 posts

223 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
So even though you're in the top 29%, you can only afford a top 50% house.
Yes, but house ownership is not a right.
No , but it's a basic need .

okgo

38,123 posts

199 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
superkartracer said:
The point was you stated it was easy to afford and nothing to worry about , 200k is a massive amount of money regardless and it seems people have lost touch with that.
At that level it really isn't hard though is it? Even if it doubled to £2k, most people could still probably survive on £2k a month left over?

My mortgage is more than that, and its just me paying it, of course ALL SORTS of things 'could' happen, but you deal with it. Or you don't and you die, whatever - there is risk attached to just about everything...

superkartracer

8,959 posts

223 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
So even though you're in the top 29%, you can only afford a top 50% house.
Yes, but house ownership is not a right.

You could equally argue the same income limits your Bugatti or Sunseeker purchase options.

Is it somehow unfair that an average salary can't buy an average Learjet?
Exactly. Two wholly unremarkable £25k salaries (isnt the national average £26k) being able to afford the average house seems pretty normal to me?

Was it ever supposed to be affordable on your own?
But now you have moved onto couples so add kids/extra cars and lots of other crap , so the situation is far more grim .

Justayellowbadge

37,057 posts

243 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
superkartracer said:
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
So even though you're in the top 29%, you can only afford a top 50% house.
Yes, but house ownership is not a right.
No , but it's a basic need .
Ownership?

oyster

12,612 posts

249 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
So even though you're in the top 29%, you can only afford a top 50% house.
Yes, but house ownership is not a right.

You could equally argue the same income limits your Bugatti or Sunseeker purchase options.

Is it somehow unfair that an average salary can't buy an average Learjet?
You're correct about home ownership not being a right.
There's also another caveat to my figures which is that the very poorest have probably never bought houses (even when the median wage could afford the median house price, so the figures for income percentile are arguable by a few percentage points.

I wasn't talking about fairness at all. I was throwing the figures out there for balance - maybe even sustainability of prices.

oyster

12,612 posts

249 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
Justayellowbadge said:
superkartracer said:
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
So even though you're in the top 29%, you can only afford a top 50% house.
Yes, but house ownership is not a right.
No , but it's a basic need .
Ownership?
Ownership isn't a basic need.

But the cost of buying a house has a huge impact on the rent charged to tenants to live in it. If that cost to buy forces the rent so high that tenants can't afford it, then that would act as form of affordability limit to buying.

superkartracer

8,959 posts

223 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
Justayellowbadge said:
superkartracer said:
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
So even though you're in the top 29%, you can only afford a top 50% house.
Yes, but house ownership is not a right.
No , but it's a basic need .
Ownership?
I don't think it's much to ask to own the roof over your head ( if you are happy to work for it ) .

Justayellowbadge

37,057 posts

243 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
oyster said:
Ownership isn't a basic need.

But the cost of buying a house has a huge impact on the rent charged to tenants to live in it. If that cost to buy forces the rent so high that tenants can't afford it, then that would act as form of affordability limit to buying.
Except it genuinely doesn't.

Rents in London have barely moved for years, despite the house price increases.

Yields are low single figures.

okgo

38,123 posts

199 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
That is true.

My flat has gone up lets say 40% in 4 years yet would rent today for probably exactly what it did 4 years ago.

Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

174 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
Ownership isn't a basic need.

But the cost of buying a house has a huge impact on the rent charged to tenants to live in it. If that cost to buy forces the rent so high that tenants can't afford it, then that would act as form of affordability limit to buying.
Except it genuinely doesn't.

Rents in London have barely moved for years, despite the house price increases.

Yields are low single figures.
That can't be right. There's a massive housing shortage?????

superkartracer

8,959 posts

223 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
okgo said:
superkartracer said:
The point was you stated it was easy to afford and nothing to worry about , 200k is a massive amount of money regardless and it seems people have lost touch with that.
At that level it really isn't hard though is it? Even if it doubled to £2k, most people could still probably survive on £2k a month left over?

My mortgage is more than that, and its just me paying it, of course ALL SORTS of things 'could' happen, but you deal with it. Or you don't and you die, whatever - there is risk attached to just about everything...
Probably survive , on a massive wage in a shoebox , it's a st situation from where i'm sat ( in my mansion in the sticks ha ha ) .

oyster

12,612 posts

249 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
So even though you're in the top 29%, you can only afford a top 50% house.
Yes, but house ownership is not a right.

You could equally argue the same income limits your Bugatti or Sunseeker purchase options.

Is it somehow unfair that an average salary can't buy an average Learjet?
Exactly. Two wholly unremarkable £25k salaries (isnt the national average £26k) being able to afford the average house seems pretty normal to me?

Was it ever supposed to be affordable on your own?
The only abnormality you've used is an assumption that the average household contains 2 average earners. The statistics on average earnings would suggest that's not the case.

oyster

12,612 posts

249 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
Ownership isn't a basic need.

But the cost of buying a house has a huge impact on the rent charged to tenants to live in it. If that cost to buy forces the rent so high that tenants can't afford it, then that would act as form of affordability limit to buying.
Except it genuinely doesn't.

Rents in London have barely moved for years, despite the house price increases.

Yields are low single figures.
And that could continue indefinitely? Yields are low now, but how low could they go before it's not economic to continue or start as a landlord?

edh

3,498 posts

270 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
Justayellowbadge said:
oyster said:
Ownership isn't a basic need.

But the cost of buying a house has a huge impact on the rent charged to tenants to live in it. If that cost to buy forces the rent so high that tenants can't afford it, then that would act as form of affordability limit to buying.
Except it genuinely doesn't.

Rents in London have barely moved for years, despite the house price increases.

Yields are low single figures.
Rents are based on what the market can afford to pay..

This is why landlords can't pass on additional costs (even though they claim they will)

Also why big rises in NMW would likely be swallowed up by landlords...

Sa Calobra

37,188 posts

212 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
Friends rented out their old house to friends. In the 6months that their friends were there they trashed it. Fast forward and circumstances changed so friends put house up for sale and it sold within a week for 50k more than 6months ago.

The market around us is going crazy as cash buyers etc are getting properties first. First time buyers are left with nearly made it, maybe next time and increasingly downgrading their dream home plans.

okgo

38,123 posts

199 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
Nothing shifting where I am. Just reductions.


Sa Calobra

37,188 posts

212 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
okgo said:
Nothing shifting where I am. Just reductions.
London? All parts of the market? I remember when I looked in on my old road in West Hampstead a 'deluxe studio flat' was on the market for £410,000. It wasn't a deluxe flag it was a bedsit with a toilet/shower in a cupboard and nice fittings.

kingston12

5,489 posts

158 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
Was it ever supposed to be affordable on your own?
As recently as the late 90s, mortgages were generally limited to 3.5x a single income or only 2.75 joint. Prior to that, it was even more biased towards mortgages based on a single salary.

I'd be interested to see actual stats, but in the traditional housing market of the 70s/80s, I'd be surprised if it was more than a small proportion of houses that were secured on a joint income.

We will never go back to that, not that I think that we should. This thread neatly demonstrates one of the reasons why - a large number of people now in the market don't even know how it worked for the last generation. Why should they, what we have now has become the new normal and people have learned to live with it.

superkartracer

8,959 posts

223 months

Tuesday 27th June 2017
quotequote all
I'd put money on the more vocal posters having had BOMAD or inheritance funds thrown at them , as they seem to value £ little.

Edited by superkartracer on Tuesday 27th June 18:50

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