How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
fido said:
ZIRP is over in the US. Inflation is over the target 2% - so GBP devaluation hasn't much to go. Foreign investors - when we're trying to flog car park spaces in Manchester Airport and 'luxury flats' in Sutton to them - well I think that has also run its course!
I think so too, but the Government have had things up their sleeves before and may well do again.Equilibrium25 said:
superkartracer said:
But now you have moved onto couples so add kids/extra cars and lots of other crap , so the situation is far more grim .
What drivel is this? You seem to be suggesting that it's tougher financially being a couple owning a house than being a single person.Very rarely does the 2nd person in a couple earn as much as the 1st. And when kids come along, that couple takes a huge income hit - which very rarely recovers. And couples with children is a huge share of the housing demographic, so they can't be ignored.
kingston12 said:
fido said:
ZIRP is over in the US. Inflation is over the target 2% - so GBP devaluation hasn't much to go. Foreign investors - when we're trying to flog car park spaces in Manchester Airport and 'luxury flats' in Sutton to them - well I think that has also run its course!
I think so too, but the Government have had things up their sleeves before and may well do again.SilverSixer said:
Try buying a family home in a decent area in the SE on a single, average salary these days and stretching that one income to pay for three, four people to live. Two incomes and some form of child care before school age has become a necessity for many, many people.
Vicious circle though isn't it?The more people that go back to full time double incomes after children, the more costs will rise (especially houses), which in turn will necessitate even more people to do likewise.
On an individual basis you are doing the right thing. Whether it's right for our society in general or not is up for debate.
oyster said:
SilverSixer said:
Try buying a family home in a decent area in the SE on a single, average salary these days and stretching that one income to pay for three, four people to live. Two incomes and some form of child care before school age has become a necessity for many, many people.
Vicious circle though isn't it?The more people that go back to full time double incomes after children, the more costs will rise (especially houses), which in turn will necessitate even more people to do likewise.
On an individual basis you are doing the right thing. Whether it's right for our society in general or not is up for debate.
Its simple supply and demand though. We dont have enough houses to go round because everyone wants to live in London/South East. Its a London/South East problem.
I dont know what can be done - its bloody hard to get permission to build in so much of the South East and land is ludicrously expensive to start with anyway.
p1stonhead said:
oyster said:
SilverSixer said:
Try buying a family home in a decent area in the SE on a single, average salary these days and stretching that one income to pay for three, four people to live. Two incomes and some form of child care before school age has become a necessity for many, many people.
Vicious circle though isn't it?The more people that go back to full time double incomes after children, the more costs will rise (especially houses), which in turn will necessitate even more people to do likewise.
On an individual basis you are doing the right thing. Whether it's right for our society in general or not is up for debate.
Its simple supply and demand though. We dont have enough houses to go round because everyone wants to live in London/South East. Its a London/South East problem.
I dont know what can be done - its bloody hard to get permission to build in so much of the South East and land is ludicrously expensive to start with anyway.
p1stonhead said:
oyster said:
SilverSixer said:
Try buying a family home in a decent area in the SE on a single, average salary these days and stretching that one income to pay for three, four people to live. Two incomes and some form of child care before school age has become a necessity for many, many people.
Vicious circle though isn't it?The more people that go back to full time double incomes after children, the more costs will rise (especially houses), which in turn will necessitate even more people to do likewise.
On an individual basis you are doing the right thing. Whether it's right for our society in general or not is up for debate.
In a developed country with true equal rights then there is no reason that both people in a relationship should not continue to work / earn / contribute financially / have a career.
In our case, it was a conscious decision for both of us to continue to work / have a career during and after having children. The mortgage was not a significant factor (mostly due to interest rates) and the cost of working minus childcare was almost equivalent to dropping to 1 salary anyway so the decision was not a financial one.
Our decision was based on a short term family pain (children in Childcare) vs a long term family and society gain (having 2 decent incomes / pensions etc for the next 30 years).
Also having 2 incomes is "safer" than being reliant on a single income. A factor that people seem to forget. Having multiple incomes gives both partners more freedom to make the right career decisions at an important stage of their career.
Several colleagues of mine seem trapped in a secure yet dull job with a small house in a worse area once they have had kids and reduced to a single income. - Not a desirable position imho wherever in the country it is.
Bob
fat80b said:
In our case, it was a conscious decision for both of us to continue to work / have a career during and after having children
A positive one for the mother/children too - already starting to see certain friends' kids realise that their mother is a waste of space, just chugging through daddy's money whilst she sits on her fat arse all day moaning about not having a bigger house/newer Range Rover/flasher holiday to maintain rank at the school gates.p1stonhead said:
oyster said:
SilverSixer said:
Try buying a family home in a decent area in the SE on a single, average salary these days and stretching that one income to pay for three, four people to live. Two incomes and some form of child care before school age has become a necessity for many, many people.
Vicious circle though isn't it?The more people that go back to full time double incomes after children, the more costs will rise (especially houses), which in turn will necessitate even more people to do likewise.
On an individual basis you are doing the right thing. Whether it's right for our society in general or not is up for debate.
Edited by superkartracer on Wednesday 28th June 14:54
As said below. having parents around is much better than the average childcare.
On of the problems with London is that many people move there, and those that live there have to buy where it is cheaper which may not be where they grew up. This means that the family network is not there and you can't get your own parents and family helping out.
As the saying goes, it takes a village to raise a child.
On of the problems with London is that many people move there, and those that live there have to buy where it is cheaper which may not be where they grew up. This means that the family network is not there and you can't get your own parents and family helping out.
As the saying goes, it takes a village to raise a child.
Rovinghawk said:
superkartracer said:
i just feel sorry for you poor sods.
Tell you what- pop over to my place for dinner on the south patio followed by drinkies in the orchard & a quick wander through the nature reserve. I'll cut a few roses for Mrs SKracer whilst you feel sorry for me.
. My orchards full of bee hives , you should get some .Joke apart , i feel sorry for the kids trying to get on the housing ladder , i think wires have been crossed somewhat .
anonymous said:
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Don't be so bloody ridiculous. BTL mortgages are actually more expensive than residential, but don't let facts get in the way of your case. Also I don't have interest-only, so please don't tell me how my business is run.anonymous said:
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It's a business. As a by-product I provide some nice housing for some decent people.anonymous said:
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It was actually a military academy, but don't let facts get in the way of your case.anonymous said:
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I'm not, but don't let facts get in the way of your case.anonymous said:
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'Fairness means many different things to many different people. I consider my business model reasonably ethical; your contrary opinion isn't based on any knowledge & isn't important.anonymous said:
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b
ks.anonymous said:
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Ireland went the way you're suggesting. They backtracked when they realised the unintended consequences, ie lower tax take, homeless families to house, that sort of thing.anonymous said:
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High prices don't benefit BTL in the long run, but don't let facts get in the way of your case.Edited by Rovinghawk on Wednesday 28th June 21:48
Ari said:
kingston12 said:
fido said:
ZIRP is over in the US. Inflation is over the target 2% - so GBP devaluation hasn't much to go. Foreign investors - when we're trying to flog car park spaces in Manchester Airport and 'luxury flats' in Sutton to them - well I think that has also run its course!
I think so too, but the Government have had things up their sleeves before and may well do again.My guess is Carney will never raise rates during his tenure.
Will it sell?
Amir Khan is selling his home in Bolton for £1.6 Million. It looks like a commercial office unit from the outside, and decorative taste won't be to everyone's liking...
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
Amir Khan is selling his home in Bolton for £1.6 Million. It looks like a commercial office unit from the outside, and decorative taste won't be to everyone's liking...
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
hyphen said:
Will it sell?
Amir Khan is selling his home in Bolton for £1.6 Million. It looks like a commercial office unit from the outside, and decorative taste won't be to everyone's liking...
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
Thats one of the worst things I have ever seen. And not just in houses.Amir Khan is selling his home in Bolton for £1.6 Million. It looks like a commercial office unit from the outside, and decorative taste won't be to everyone's liking...
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
oyster said:
There is a very clear assumption on all these threads that somehow a couple has twice the buying power of a single. They don't.
Very rarely does the 2nd person in a couple earn as much as the 1st. And when kids come along, that couple takes a huge income hit - which very rarely recovers. And couples with children is a huge share of the housing demographic, so they can't be ignored.
Is there? I hadn't picked up on that assumption. And yet...Very rarely does the 2nd person in a couple earn as much as the 1st. And when kids come along, that couple takes a huge income hit - which very rarely recovers. And couples with children is a huge share of the housing demographic, so they can't be ignored.
One person on £40k a year. Let's say they can borrow £160k mortgage (or about £90k in superkartracer's world).
They then pay bills...monthly £150 council tax, £250 a month on food, £100 on broadband/tv, £150 on utilities + £n on a single car.
Two people join together, both on £40k a year. They borrow double the single person £320k, but not all bills double.
Now we are at £200 council tax, £350 a month on food (great economies of scale in food shopping), £100 on broadband, £200 on utilities + 2 x £n on two cars.
Then there are huge savings in holidays (single vs. double rooms) and other things.
The couple do look a lot better off than the single person. They then compound that advantage with faster saving/debt reduction. I understand your point about income usually not being equal, but the £40k person plus the £25k person are still in a massively more powerful position than either are individually.
Some may have kids quickly, others will wait a few years. Often the ones that have kids quickly will have come into the relationship with existing assets/property equity and can therefore afford that.
I've owned two houses on my own, then two with my wife (who already owned her own property when we moved in together). I know which position was vastly easier than the other, as does she.
Generally though, I could have called drivel on pretty much any of superkartracer's posts which absolutely scream about a lack of reality and show no understanding of making the best of prevailing economic circumstance. We've been in low interest rate territory for almost a decade. When it ends, some will get burnt if they genuinely have overstretched themselves and cannot adjust - that's capitalism for you. But a great many more will have maximised their opportunities and taken huge benefit from the extended period of low interest rates.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Are you saying IO mortgages are only available to BTL? I have an IO mortgage on my home, I also have BTL mortgages. My residential mortgage is cheaper than my BTL mortgages.Off setting against tax does not make you mortgage cheaper. It simply how you work out how much tax you pay on any income received. If a homeowner rents part of their house out to a tenant they an additional 7.5k tax allowance.
The issue is not BTL landlords, but supply of properties in particular area's.
If one person wants to rent a property from another then that should be fine, it shouldn't be restricted or interfered with by government. The problem we have at the moment is that a lot of people who rent are not doing it by choice. Its perfectly normal for someone to rent when they are younger, but as they settle down and want to start a family then buying a home should be an option.
If we enough property in the south east then prices would stabilise and probably go down.
Its very hard to get planning permission. Try doing land search on right move in the south east. i have a relative that works for a property development firm, and one of there projects has PP, but its being fought through the courts by CPRE. The process is taking years and the legal bills are in the 100's of thousands. not a single brick has been laid so far.
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