How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[superkartracer]

NomduJour said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

It's nonsense, stay-at-home mothers just seem like poor role models to me.

Tangent to academics but interesting ( if you're a nice psychopath ) and wondered how they are/were forged .

The Early Attachment Experiences are the Roots of Psychopathy
Neha Khetrapal1 Eindhoven University of Technology

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=...

[hyphen]

Usual developer routine of applying for planning based on x amount of cheap homes, then midway threaten to mothball the development if they don't reduce... The Mayor is making a point of saying he is furious on twitter as opposed to actually doing anything, and a petition has also been setup by someone.

papes said:

Wandsworth’s planning committee agreed the affordable housing quota [at the Battersea Power Station dveelpment] could be cut from 636 properties to 386, by five votes to four. The development company said the move was necessary, blaming rising construction costs due to the weak pound and unexpected “technical difficulties” during the build.

Richard Field, chairman of Wandsworth’s planning committee, said: “The committee had a very difficult choice between accepting a potentially lower number of affordable homes, or refusing the application and risk losing all of them. This development also directly funds the Tube extension which is bringing 25,000 jobs to Battersea, so the stakes are extremely high.”

...Mr Field, wandsorth planning chair, claimed the Mayor had been invited to comment on the application “several weeks ago” but had “remained completely silent” before the Homes & Property story was published.

http://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/ba...

Edited by hyphen on Friday 30th June 12:41

[Sheepshanks]

Equilibrium25 said:

oyster said:

There is a very clear assumption on all these threads that somehow a couple has twice the buying power of a single. They don't.

Very rarely does the 2nd person in a couple earn as much as the 1st. And when kids come along, that couple takes a huge income hit - which very rarely recovers. And couples with children is a huge share of the housing demographic, so they can't be ignored.

Is there? I hadn't picked up on that assumption. And yet...

One person on £40k a year. Let's say they can borrow £160k mortgage (or about £90k in superkartracer's world).
They then pay bills...monthly £150 council tax, £250 a month on food, £100 on broadband/tv, £150 on utilities + £n on a single car.

Two people join together, both on £40k a year. They borrow double the single person £320k, ....

Are those numbers (amount borrowed) generally available? The seem huge multiples.

Thinking back to my daughter and her new husband buying their house - they each earn around £30K and they needed £135K to buy a £158K house. They got it, but the lender wouldn't do it over 25yrs - their mortgage is something like 28.5 years.

[okgo]

You can borrow 5x salary and same for joint.

Affordability comes into it, but if you don't have endless payments then 5x is still a goer.

[scenario8]

What's happened to "my" thread?

FWIW mid 40s, fabulous under-achiever. Thought Oxford not a dump but had to leave due to character failings. Enormous mortgage, very average house, genuine average earnings, Paw Patrol loving 3 yr old.

[Sheepshanks]

okgo said:

You can borrow 5x salary and same for joint.

Affordability comes into it, but if you don't have endless payments then 5x is still a goer.

OK, but does that take some jiggery-pokery, or is that multiple generally available?

[okgo]

Sheepshanks said:

OK, but does that take some jiggery-pokery, or is that multiple generally available?

Yes, anyone can get that I should think within reason.

[Equilibrium25]

Sheepshanks said:

OK, but does that take some jiggery-pokery, or is that multiple generally available?

Generally available I believe, just need a clean bank account with outgoings very controlled.

[Equilibrium25]

Sheepshanks said:

Are those numbers (amount borrowed) generally available? The seem huge multiples.

Thinking back to my daughter and her new husband buying their house - they each earn around £30K and they needed £135K to buy a £158K house. They got it, but the lender wouldn't do it over 25yrs - their mortgage is something like 28.5 years.

My numbers were plucked from the air, but conservatively I thought.

Thinking back many years, I once borrowed £160k-ish when my salary was probably mid-30s plus £10k of discretionary payments etc, 25 year term, big name lender. I'm genuinely surprised that two people on £30k would struggle to get just over 2x joint income at normal terms. Did they shop around?

[Sheepshanks]

Equilibrium25 said:

Thinking back many years, I once borrowed £160k-ish when my salary was probably mid-30s plus £10k of discretionary payments etc, 25 year term, big name lender. I'm genuinely surprised that two people on £30k would struggle to get just over 2x joint income at normal terms. Did they shop around?

I know such things used to happen, but I thought that had been clamped down on now.

They didn't shop around - they got what they needed so were happy with that. Son-in-law had a somewhat iffy credit history so they didn't want to rock the boat.

[p1stonhead]

Sheepshanks said:

Equilibrium25 said:

Thinking back many years, I once borrowed £160k-ish when my salary was probably mid-30s plus £10k of discretionary payments etc, 25 year term, big name lender. I'm genuinely surprised that two people on £30k would struggle to get just over 2x joint income at normal terms. Did they shop around?

I know such things used to happen, but I thought that had been clamped down on now.

They didn't shop around - they got what they needed so were happy with that. Son-in-law had a somewhat iffy credit history so they didn't want to rock the boat.

Me and the missus did 5x combined several years ago. Didn't make me feel comfortable but it was the only way to get something that wasn't a total total st hole.

[Derek Chevalier]

p1stonhead said:

oyster said:

SilverSixer said:

Try buying a family home in a decent area in the SE on a single, average salary these days and stretching that one income to pay for three, four people to live. Two incomes and some form of child care before school age has become a necessity for many, many people.

Vicious circle though isn't it?

The more people that go back to full time double incomes after children, the more costs will rise (especially houses), which in turn will necessitate even more people to do likewise.

On an individual basis you are doing the right thing. Whether it's right for our society in general or not is up for debate.

Its not a 'society' issue overall - its a very specific geographical area problem.

Its simple supply and demand though. We dont have enough houses to go round because everyone wants to live in London/South East. Its a London/South East problem.

I dont know what can be done - its bloody hard to get permission to build in so much of the South East and land is ludicrously expensive to start with anyway.

It's pretty much a countrywide problem, not specific to the South East.

[Murph7355]

Derek Chevalier said:

It's pretty much a countrywide problem, not specific to the South East.

Is there data to back that up?

House up North where I come from seem neither expensive nor hard to come by. At least relative to the SE.

[Derek Chevalier]

Murph7355 said:

Derek Chevalier said:

It's pretty much a countrywide problem, not specific to the South East.

Is there data to back that up?

House up North where I come from seem neither expensive nor hard to come by. At least relative to the SE.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-index/download-data

Nationwide is one place to start. Compared to Q1 2000 (when bubble approximately kicked off), house prices in North are 2.47 times, outer south east is 2.88 times - growth in both areas way in excess of wage inflation

[mike74]

Murph7355 said:

Is there data to back that up?

House up North where I come from seem neither expensive nor hard to come by. At least relative to the SE.

You need to look at local wages and local job opportunities when looking at local (northern) house prices.

I live in an area where you can have over 100 applicants chasing one part time/seasonal, minimum wage job vacancy, which means they're not even earning half the uk national average wage of £27k... so even though typical FTBer houses here are 'only' £100k that's still over 7x local wages.

[TheLordJohn]

mike74 said:

I live in an area where you can have over 100 applicants chasing one part time/seasonal, minimum wage job vacancy, which means they're not even earning half the uk national average wage of £27k... so even though typical FTBer houses here are 'only' £100k that's still over 7x local wages.

By and large, that's their own fault.
I currently work down south, due to my wife career, but if i was to live up North I could earn £40k with ease, as I have a trade.
A very nice house, in a very nice area could be had for £200k with consummate ease.

[menousername]

TheLordJohn said:

By and large, that's their own fault.
I currently work down south, due to my wife career, but if i was to live up North I could earn £40k with ease, as I have a trade.
A very nice house, in a very nice area could be had for £200k with consummate ease.

A trade they need 50k + of uni debt to achieve?

Did you buy a house while servicing that level of uni debt?

[kingston12]

TheLordJohn said:

By and large, that's their own fault.
I currently work down south, due to my wife career, but if i was to live up North I could earn £40k with ease, as I have a trade.
A very nice house, in a very nice area could be had for £200k with consummate ease.

I never quite understand that argument. If hundreds of people currently in minimum wage jobs in one are of the north all trained in your trade, would you still be able to earn your £40k? It might be the case, but it certainly isn't for most trades.

There isn't enough capacity in the economy to support house prices at this level. Interest rates and other props have bridged the gap up until now, but if any of those are taken away then the situation could be rather different.

Edited by kingston12 on Sunday 2nd July 08:22

[CoolHands]

What do with think about the latest DM scaremongering? -40% ahead

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Br...

[Derek Chevalier]

CoolHands said:

What do with think about the latest DM scaremongering? -40% ahead

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Br...

Why so small a fall?