How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[p1stonhead]

scenario8 said:

p1stonhead said:

Hasn't taken much of a hit that I've seen. Only totally awful stuff has and the £1.5m+ which isn't really for normal people IMO. Good 4 beds in the decent areas are still £700k+. Anything decent is still going fairly easily.

3 bed semi went up round the corner for £540k and was sold within a week which is insane if you knew the road. It's by far broken the record for the road if it's gone for near asking and the fact it was gone in a week would suggest it could have.

Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 7th July 16:47

Which one?

My mistake £535k it was on for and its 4 bed but still huge price for where it is. It's in no way prime reigate and although 4 bed is only 1 Bath no ensuites not even a shower room elsewhere.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 7th July 17:12

[V6Alfisti]

p1stonhead said:

Hasn't taken much of a hit that I've seen. Only totally awful stuff has and the £1.5m+ which isn't really for normal people IMO. Good 4 beds in the decent areas are still £700k+. Anything decent is still going fairly easily.

3 bed semi went up round the corner for £540k and was sold within a week which is insane if you knew the road. It's by far broken the record for the road if it's gone for near asking and the fact it was gone in a week would suggest it could have.

Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 7th July 16:47

I will try to pull out the ones from Rightmove when I have a chance.

I recall two, one was I think a 3-4 bed detached at about £635k (after a few haircuts, that did sell), I recall a nice street, long driveway to the left and inside was pleasant. The other was a large semi at around £600k, can't recall the road. Reigate was much lower down my focus list due to the rail link.

[scenario8]

p1stonhead said:

My mistake £535k it was on for and its 4 bed but still huge price for where it is. It's in no way prime reigate and although 4 bed is only 1 Bath no ensuites not even a shower room elsewhere.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Thanks. Attractive, mind, which helps enormously. 4 decent beds...doesn't look that bad value to me!

[p1stonhead]

scenario8 said:

p1stonhead said:

My mistake £535k it was on for and its 4 bed but still huge price for where it is. It's in no way prime reigate and although 4 bed is only 1 Bath no ensuites not even a shower room elsewhere.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Thanks. Attractive, mind, which helps enormously. 4 decent beds...doesn't look that bad value to me!

It's not bad and is a nice area but still high for the road.

You can see the fairly steady price rise for the road over a few years. £500k+ is fairly new (didn't occur until December 2015)

http://www.mouseprice.com/house-prices/new+north+r...

[scenario8]

p1stonhead said:

scenario8 said:

p1stonhead said:

My mistake £535k it was on for and its 4 bed but still huge price for where it is. It's in no way prime reigate and although 4 bed is only 1 Bath no ensuites not even a shower room elsewhere.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Thanks. Attractive, mind, which helps enormously. 4 decent beds...doesn't look that bad value to me!

It's a nice area for sure but £500k plus is high for the area I think.

You can see the prices rising here. The road didn't break £300k until 2011 but broke £400k in 2014 and £500k in 2016 and most houses are broadly similar on the road it's not like there are huge outliers.

http://www.mouseprice.com/house-prices/new+north+r...

I can see where you're coming from but think of the standard 3 bed semi then add circa a hundred grand's worth of rear extension and two bed roof rooms (plus kitchen, windows etc). Personally I prefer the two big bedroom roof rooms over one bed plus en-suite and squeezing in a fourth bed/office on the middle floor.

I also prefer these "newer" roads in non-central reigate as they have a decent amount of space, grounds, parking blah blah blah when compared to the Victorian and Edwardian stock in the "popular" roads that are cramped, tighter together, are harder to develop, provide no parking, have smaller gardens and cost a third more!

[p1stonhead]

scenario8 said:

p1stonhead said:

scenario8 said:

p1stonhead said:

My mistake £535k it was on for and its 4 bed but still huge price for where it is. It's in no way prime reigate and although 4 bed is only 1 Bath no ensuites not even a shower room elsewhere.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Thanks. Attractive, mind, which helps enormously. 4 decent beds...doesn't look that bad value to me!

It's a nice area for sure but £500k plus is high for the area I think.

You can see the prices rising here. The road didn't break £300k until 2011 but broke £400k in 2014 and £500k in 2016 and most houses are broadly similar on the road it's not like there are huge outliers.

http://www.mouseprice.com/house-prices/new+north+r...

I can see where you're coming from but think of the standard 3 bed semi then add circa a hundred grand's worth of rear extension and two bed roof rooms (plus kitchen, windows etc). Personally I prefer the two big bedroom roof rooms over one bed plus en-suite and squeezing in a fourth bed/office on the middle floor.

I also prefer these "newer" roads in non-central reigate as they have a decent amount of space, grounds, parking blah blah blah when compared to the Victorian and Edwardian stock in the "popular" roads that are cramped, tighter together, are harder to develop, provide no parking, have smaller gardens and cost a third more!

True but the extensions and loft conversions are a symptom of high prices not a cause. No one can afford to move so are extending instead. Invariably though people get them valued after the work and some end up selling....

100% agree on types of houses too. 'Prime' Reigate is cramped as fk despite being prettier. As long as Woodhatch is avoided, I prefer not living in the pretty Victorian roads, no parking ever and certainly no garages etc unless spending serious money.

Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 7th July 17:26

[Sheepshanks]

p1stonhead said:

scenario8 said:

p1stonhead said:

My mistake £535k it was on for and its 4 bed but still huge price for where it is. It's in no way prime reigate and although 4 bed is only 1 Bath no ensuites not even a shower room elsewhere.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Thanks. Attractive, mind, which helps enormously. 4 decent beds...doesn't look that bad value to me!

It's not bad and is a nice area but still high for the road.

You can see the fairly steady price rise for the road over a few years. £500k+ is fairly new (didn't occur until December 2015)

http://www.mouseprice.com/house-prices/new+north+r...

Are they the same type of house as the one you featured though? That one presumably started off as a 2 bed plus box room - it's been pretty extensively developed! What would it worth unmolested?


I know a little way away but was just chatting to a colleague who sold a 4 bed semi in Maidenhead a couple of years ago and at the time thought he let it go too cheaply at £495K as he literally had people queued outside. He reckons it would be £40-£50K down on that now.

Edited by Sheepshanks on Friday 7th July 17:38

[p1stonhead]

Sheepshanks said:

p1stonhead said:

scenario8 said:

p1stonhead said:

My mistake £535k it was on for and its 4 bed but still huge price for where it is. It's in no way prime reigate and although 4 bed is only 1 Bath no ensuites not even a shower room elsewhere.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Thanks. Attractive, mind, which helps enormously. 4 decent beds...doesn't look that bad value to me!

It's not bad and is a nice area but still high for the road.

You can see the fairly steady price rise for the road over a few years. £500k+ is fairly new (didn't occur until December 2015)

http://www.mouseprice.com/house-prices/new+north+r...

Are they the same type of house as the one you featured though? That one presumably started off as a 2 bed - it's been pretty extensively developed! What would it worth unmolested?


I know a little way away but was just chatting to a colleague who sold a 4 bed semi in Maidenhead a couple of years ago and at the time thought he let it go too cheaply at £495K as he literally had people queued outside. He reckons it would be £40-£50K down on that now.

Generally the higher ones are previous 3 beds which have had loft conversions like that one was. Not many 2 beds on the road actually.

Funnily I nearly bought a 3 bed semi on the road for £260k and it recently sold for £430k unchanged I believe.

[Sheepshanks]

p1stonhead said:

Generally the higher ones are previous 3 beds which have had loft conversions like that one was. Not many 2 beds on the road actually.

I edited my post as I guess there was 3rd "bedroom" (it must have been absolutely tiny) where the stairs to the loft are.

[p1stonhead]

Sheepshanks said:

p1stonhead said:

Generally the higher ones are previous 3 beds which have had loft conversions like that one was. Not many 2 beds on the road actually.

I edited my post as I guess there was 3rd "bedroom" (it must have been absolutely tiny) where the stairs to the loft are.

Yeah some have done that. Others like the below are fairly well proportioned at 1400sqft and have managed to keep three beds on the first floor. The smallest is acceptable for a forth and easily big enough for a single bed. Albeit a bit of a jump again. This one is actually sold as a five rather than 4 because two rooms in the loft instead rather than a master with ensuite. Still expensive though!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

[menousername]

p1stonhead said:

Funnily I nearly bought a 3 bed semi on the road for £260k and it recently sold for £430k unchanged I believe.

Given the availability of sold prices and pictures who the hell is buying these??

Who looks at a house that the vendor purchased 2 years back for 260k and thinks I know I will fund this guys 170k savings fund

[p1stonhead]

menousername said:

p1stonhead said:

Funnily I nearly bought a 3 bed semi on the road for £260k and it recently sold for £430k unchanged I believe.

Given the availability of sold prices and pictures who the hell is buying these??

Who looks at a house that the vendor purchased 2 years back for 260k and thinks I know I will fund this guys 170k savings fund

Yes a tad annoying but does it matter though? If you want a McLaren F1 can you buy one for a million quid these days? No you need to pay what the market says it's 'worth' which is many times that. Doesn't matter what the guy before paid. Look at Porsche!

Also annoying because that could have been my £170k!


EDIT!

It's still for sale! Must have fallen through! It's not anywhere close to a £400k house to me. £260k 4 years ago was a bargain though.

Looking over the cricket/football pitch seemed like quite a nice thing back then but having now lived nearby, fk me it's loud! And they have added huge floodlights which stay on till 10.30pm some nights and make the garden into daytime until then!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 7th July 18:06

[fishseller]

Angrybiker said:

Twilkes said:

People we know in London, with similar income to us, bought a 2-bed pokey-ish flat in south London for £250k in 2011, sold it for £450k this year. Probably moved to somewhere bigger still in south London, no idea what it would have cost them though.

We bought decent sized 3 bed semi up north for £150k in 2013, now probably worth £170k. No plans to move, maybe to a better area in ten years time.

Are they the mugs or are we the mugs? Or are we all mugs?

Or none of us?

tough one. houses in london are an easy investment - IF you assume that the london bubble will continue forever and IF you can manage it AND IF one day you want to cash that in. Up north you get cheaper housing so you get more opportunity to diversify your residual income into other assets. I know of some investments that are currently returning 9% so not too dis-similar from London property - but I don't have the money to invest in those because all my spare goes towards paying off the mortgage (I'm not actually too stretched but I hate a concentrated portfolio and I hate risk of being unemployed etc.)

In london you're almost 'forced' to invest most of your residual into a house - that just happens to be working out at the moment but who knows... Tons of people have busted a gut to get on the london ladder and if Brexit / *interest rates* / Corbyn taxes hit then those people could be looking at severe negative equity; OR can't afford repayments on your 110% mortgage any more so you have to sell and end up much further out (because you have little equity resulting from most of your monthly mortgage being interest); OR less extreme might end up flat having invested all their residual into it whereas a broader invested portfolio might be more resilient to the future unknown.

Edited by Angrybiker on Friday 7th July 12:17

What investments can you get that return 9% ? thats a good return if its not a risky investment.

[menousername]

p1stonhead said:

Yes a tad annoying but does it matter though? If you want a McLaren F1 can you buy one for a million quid these days? No you need to pay what the market says it's 'worth' which is many times that. Doesn't matter what the guy before paid. Look at Porsche!

Also annoying because that could have been my £170k!


EDIT!

It's still for sale! Must have fallen through! It's not anywhere close to a £400k house to me. £260k 4 years ago was a bargain though.

Looking over the cricket/football pitch seemed like quite a nice thing back then but having now lived nearby, fk me it's loud! And they have added huge floodlights which stay on till 10.30pm some nights and make the garden into daytime until then!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 7th July 18:06

Go back and offer him 275. 15k profit. Make it a condition that he gets the flodd lighting taken down

[mike74]

menousername said:

Given the availability of sold prices and pictures who the hell is buying these??

Who looks at a house that the vendor purchased 2 years back for 260k and thinks I know I will fund this guys 170k savings fund

Idiots and simpletons who think it's going to rise by the same amount again in the next 2 years... and next 2 years after that, and after that and after that....

[Sheepshanks]

p1stonhead said:

EDIT!

It's still for sale! Must have fallen through! It's not anywhere close to a £400k house to me. £260k 4 years ago was a bargain though.

Looking over the cricket/football pitch seemed like quite a nice thing back then but having now lived nearby, fk me it's loud! And they have added huge floodlights which stay on till 10.30pm some nights and make the garden into daytime until then!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

People say new houses are small but the size of these places is just mental - a bed would only fit in bedroom 3 because the door opens outwards.

And the kitchen's got ~ 4'x4' of floor area - I suppose everything's within easy reach!

[p1stonhead]

Sheepshanks said:

p1stonhead said:

EDIT!

It's still for sale! Must have fallen through! It's not anywhere close to a £400k house to me. £260k 4 years ago was a bargain though.

Looking over the cricket/football pitch seemed like quite a nice thing back then but having now lived nearby, fk me it's loud! And they have added huge floodlights which stay on till 10.30pm some nights and make the garden into daytime until then!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

People say new houses are small but the size of these places is just mental - a bed would only fit in bedroom 3 because the door opens outwards.

And the kitchen's got ~ 4'x4' of floor area - I suppose everything's within easy reach!

Yeah it's really small. Was a good starter home for a couple for £260k but not a family home for £430k.

[Sheepshanks]

p1stonhead said:

Yeah it's really small. Was a good starter home for a couple for £260k but not a family home for £430k.

Well, maybe if, like the other house, you throw ~£150K at it and it's then worth £600K+ it makes sense?

[p1stonhead]

Sheepshanks said:

p1stonhead said:

Yeah it's really small. Was a good starter home for a couple for £260k but not a family home for £430k.

Well, maybe if, like the other house, you throw ~£150K at it and it's then worth £600K+ it makes sense?

Nah too small to throw that much money at. The other one started off a lot bigger a 3 bed. Could chuck £50k at it (general tidy up and loft conversion) and probably sell it for £500k though to be honest if past houses on the road are anything to go by.

[menousername]

p1stonhead said:

Yeah it's really small. Was a good starter home for a couple for £260k but not a family home for £430k.

Seems to sum up the problem nicely for FTBs - or any buyers- its still only a 260k house with all the issues that go with a starter house. People need to trade up from that in 3-5 years time but they are paying almost double what the previous paid.

If it does sell it sets a new bar as far as the neighbours are concerned- suddenly they want in excess of 500k for theirs