How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[p1stonhead]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

You are correct I am thinking of Fairmile Lane.

Yes the weetabix box is horrendous. I cant see how anyone will see the value in it.

[Sheepshanks]

Pork said:

Genuine question: would you rather lend money to your children to get a property or see your property drop in value and not have to lend them money?

Drop in value.

[dom9]

Remember this one I went to see to rent back in Feb, Tonks?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

That was on with Curchods at £795k for the last few months, so a £45k drop on asking price or 5.7% off now.

I still think it will need to be closer to £695k to shift in the market round here.

It's small, needs a bit of work (including an extension over the garage) and the garden isn't great. The owner bought the house next door (very similar but with a much bigger garden) a year or two back for ~£700k (so less than they're asking for the much smaller plot) and spent £300k on an extension, putting the total spend at ~£1M... Don't think they'd see that back in a sale now.

I want this for (a lot less) when we're old and infirm but the price hasn't changed in months: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

[DeltaTango]

I'm a West London (Brook Green to be precise) EA.

The market is awfully quiet here and has been for some time. Most freehold houses have been on the market of several months, with some remaining unsold for over a year. Some houses have sold for new record prices this year, others are struggling to achieve even 80% of what they would have sold for in late 2014 / early 2015.

This is for houses at £1.5m + , with most in the £1.75-£2.5m range.

Below this price point you are looking at flats. The market is also very quiet at this level. Viewing numbers are well under half of what they would normally be. Online enquires (via rightmove etc) are also down by several orders of magnitude. Transaction volumes are 50% of what they used to be, at best.

The 'first time buyer' properties (£375-£700k here - yes I know, that's ridiculous) are also not walking out the door. Sale prices for these are around 5% shy of peak prices currently. However, sales exchanging now went under offer between January and March, when the market was much busier and there was still some confidence. This has been the longest period in my 10 years in the business that I haven't received an offer on a property (over 4 weeks now, - one would usually expect to generate 3 offers per week on average).

It's hard to say where it goes from here, but it is interesting reading the views of others in less central areas.

[Sheepshanks]

View from a US business news site:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-sends-lond...

Highlights big impact to those who need to convert to US$. And has London really risen 50 fold in 40 years?

[anonymous-user]

dom9 said:

Remember this one I went to see to rent back in Feb, Tonks?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

That was on with Curchods at £795k for the last few months, so a £45k drop on asking price or 5.7% off now.

I still think it will need to be closer to £695k to shift in the market round here.

It's small, needs a bit of work (including an extension over the garage) and the garden isn't great. The owner bought the house next door (very similar but with a much bigger garden) a year or two back for ~£700k (so less than they're asking for the much smaller plot) and spent £300k on an extension, putting the total spend at ~£1M... Don't think they'd see that back in a sale now.

I want this for (a lot less) when we're old and infirm but the price hasn't changed in months: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

I own a similar house in N.Wales, cost me £135k, that is absolutely ludicrous, it is tiny 105M is smaller than my flat in the city centre, I hope the prices come crashing down, it is another blocker to social mobility; I was offered two roles within our business in Stevenage and Portsmouth, I don't expect a mansion but the same house as I have 'oop North would cost between 2-4 fold dependent.

In Chester City, all sub 1H to Manchester / Liverpool and a much nicer city;
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Edited by Trexthedinosaur on Tuesday 11th July 15:32

[p1stonhead]

Trexthedinosaur said:

dom9 said:

Remember this one I went to see to rent back in Feb, Tonks?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

That was on with Curchods at £795k for the last few months, so a £45k drop on asking price or 5.7% off now.

I still think it will need to be closer to £695k to shift in the market round here.

It's small, needs a bit of work (including an extension over the garage) and the garden isn't great. The owner bought the house next door (very similar but with a much bigger garden) a year or two back for ~£700k (so less than they're asking for the much smaller plot) and spent £300k on an extension, putting the total spend at ~£1M... Don't think they'd see that back in a sale now.

I want this for (a lot less) when we're old and infirm but the price hasn't changed in months: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

I own a similar house in N.Wales, cost me £135k, that is absolutely ludicrous, it is tiny 105M is smaller than my flat in the city centre, I hope the prices come crashing down, it is another blocker to social mobility; I was offered two roles within our business in Stevenage and Portsmouth, I don't expect a mansion but the same house as I have 'oop North, same house cost between 2-4 fold dependent.

Without trying to be sanctimonius - (this is the market speaking) who wants to live in North Wales?

Its just supply and demand. Cobham is very popular.

[Pork]

DeltaTango said:

I'm a West London (Brook Green to be precise) EA.

The market is awfully quiet here and has been for some time. Most freehold houses have been on the market of several months, with some remaining unsold for over a year. Some houses have sold for new record prices this year, others are struggling to achieve even 80% of what they would have sold for in late 2014 / early 2015.

This is for houses at £1.5m + , with most in the £1.75-£2.5m range.

Below this price point you are looking at flats. The market is also very quiet at this level. Viewing numbers are well under half of what they would normally be. Online enquires (via rightmove etc) are also down by several orders of magnitude. Transaction volumes are 50% of what they used to be, at best.

The 'first time buyer' properties (£375-£700k here - yes I know, that's ridiculous) are also not walking out the door. Sale prices for these are around 5% shy of peak prices currently. However, sales exchanging now went under offer between January and March, when the market was much busier and there was still some confidence. This has been the longest period in my 10 years in the business that I haven't received an offer on a property (over 4 weeks now, - one would usually expect to generate 3 offers per week on average).

It's hard to say where it goes from here, but it is interesting reading the views of others in less central areas.

Interesting to read, thanks.

[Sheepshanks]

Trexthedinosaur said:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Talking of reductions - interesting that streetview on the Google map link on the listing has the previous agents sign!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

[g3org3y]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

One of the most disappointing ways of spending £725,000.

We've been looking in the villages surrounding Colchester (Dedham, Layer, Nayland, Langham, East Bergholt, Stratford St Mary etc). over the last 12-18 months. In our experience the market itself has been quite slow in terms of new stock coming on the market. Seemingly not that many people are keen to sell.

Houses (4-5 bed detached type) coming on the market in the desirable villages here are being snapped up quickly and in many cases notably in excess of asking. We'd see a house come up on Rightmove (or be alerted to it before being made public via the estate agent's potential buyer list) and it'd sell before we even got a chance to view it that weekend. On a few occasions, cash buyers. You had to act and put in offers within 48 hours otherwise you had no chance. With both my wife and I working, we logistically couldn't compete to get in there first.

The desirable areas will always be desirable (location, schools etc). With seemingly fewer people willing to sell/move, the demand for really 'good stuff' is high. Conversely, there are plenty of houses that have been on sale for ages, clearly overpriced. I'm assuming the vendors are under not pressure to sell and are trying their luck.

With SDLT as it is, I suspect people aren't keen to get stung for 43k on a 1mill property or 93k on a 1.5mill property with the expectation it is going to need further cash spent on it. You're already 50-100k down before you've even started. Consider also if a second property is owned, the SDLT is even more crazy.

[Pork]

Sheepshanks said:

Drop in value.

Interesting. I think most in your situation would too.

[Sheepshanks]

Pork said:

Sheepshanks said:

Drop in value.

Interesting. I think most in your situation would too.

It would be difficult for anyone fairly recently in the market as they'd likely end up in negative equity. But then one of my kids is in a small house so softening prices across the board should make her next move easier.

[scenario8]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

The suspense tonker!

An interesting three day catch up everyone. I always love it when we bring up Curchods and their pricing

[Carl_Manchester]

g3org3y said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

One of the most disappointing ways of spending £725,000.

Same story in similar area to Cobham in South East London, we have Weetabix houses in Chislehurst can't find one right now but an overpriced par-for-the-course Petts Wood house will need to suffice.

Line-up for this marvellous investment opportunity:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

[B'stard Child]

Sheepshanks said:

Pork said:

Genuine question: would you rather lend money to your children to get a property or see your property drop in value and not have to lend them money?

Drop in value.

No kids but drop in value every time - it's not real money unless you downsize to release it - if you are changing up the cost is the price diffential - just like cars!!!

[B'stard Child]

Sheepshanks said:

Pork said:

Sheepshanks said:

Drop in value.

Interesting. I think most in your situation would too.

It would be difficult for anyone fairly recently in the market as they'd likely end up in negative equity. But then one of my kids is in a small house so softening prices across the board should make her next move easier.

Negative equity is only an issue if you want to move - I lived with negative equity for 4 years back in the late 80's early 90's mortgage was more than the value of the house and that was when interest rates went stupid - the negative equity never concerned me as much as keeping up to date with mortgage payments!

[Pork]

B'stard Child said:

No kids but drop in value every time - it's not real money unless you downsize to release it - if you are changing up the cost is the price diffential - just like cars!!!

I think most would. After all, we want to pay less for oretty much everything else.

However, govt and big businesses do better if house prices keep going up and that's who calls the shots.

[B'stard Child]

Pork said:

B'stard Child said:

No kids but drop in value every time - it's not real money unless you downsize to release it - if you are changing up the cost is the price diffential - just like cars!!!

I think most would. After all, we want to pay less for oretty much everything else.

However, govt and big businesses do better if house prices keep going up and that's who calls the shots.

Possibly but here's hoping!!!

[scenario8]

If a self-selecting group now believes price falls are a "good" thing and contend most people support the phenomena there doesn't appear to be overwhelming evidence to support this in the world of actual buying and selling. For years this thread has hosted posts from regular contributors commenting on how deluded vendors are when it comes to pricing and further commenting on the feeble number of sales. Wouldn't we expect to see more reductions and realistic pricing and increased volumes if lower prices were genuinely wished for?

Or is there a disconnect between what most people want (price falls) and those involved in the buying and selling. In the same way that I'd love Ferrari values to halve, as might "most people" but no-one interested in selling one feels the same.

[Derek Chevalier]

B'stard Child said:

Sheepshanks said:

Pork said:

Sheepshanks said:

Drop in value.

Interesting. I think most in your situation would too.

It would be difficult for anyone fairly recently in the market as they'd likely end up in negative equity. But then one of my kids is in a small house so softening prices across the board should make her next move easier.

Negative equity is only an issue if you want to move - I lived with negative equity for 4 years back in the late 80's early 90's mortgage was more than the value of the house and that was when interest rates went stupid - the negative equity never concerned me as much as keeping up to date with mortgage payments!

It may be of you need to remortgage to avoid a heinous SVR