How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
scenario8 said:
For years this thread has hosted posts from regular contributors commenting on how deluded vendors are when it comes to pricing and further commenting on the feeble number of sales. Wouldn't we expect to see more reductions and realistic pricing and increased volumes if lower prices were genuinely wished for?
When did the thread begin? The links on p1 don't work and I need to know how far houses prices have fallen.Derek Chevalier said:
B'stard Child said:
Sheepshanks said:
Pork said:
Sheepshanks said:
Drop in value.
Interesting. I think most in your situation would too.Dindoit said:
When did the thread begin? The links on p1 don't work and I need to know how far houses prices have fallen.
Here you go...https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
10 years of renting and any equity you may have had earning next to nothing unless you've been a savvy and lucky investor.
rory said:
Dindoit said:
When did the thread begin? The links on p1 don't work and I need to know how far houses prices have fallen.
Here you go...https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
10 years of renting and any equity you may have had earning next to nothing unless you've been a savvy and lucky investor.
FTSE 100 was 6300ish when the original thread started, so not that great a return. Plus any equity available to invest would be considerably less (for most people) than the property 'asset' meaning the overall return would be less.
Don't get me wrong I believe house prices are far too high but it's hard to argue that you would have been better off out of the property market in the past decade.
Don't get me wrong I believe house prices are far too high but it's hard to argue that you would have been better off out of the property market in the past decade.
scenario8 said:
If a self-selecting group now believes price falls are a "good" thing and contend most people support the phenomena there doesn't appear to be overwhelming evidence to support this in the world of actual buying and selling. For years this thread has hosted posts from regular contributors commenting on how deluded vendors are when it comes to pricing and further commenting on the feeble number of sales. Wouldn't we expect to see more reductions and realistic pricing and increased volumes if lower prices were genuinely wished for?
Or is there a disconnect between what most people want (price falls) and those involved in the buying and selling. In the same way that I'd love Ferrari values to halve, as might "most people" but no-one interested in selling one feels the same.
It would have to be a very big proportion of people that support the idea of house prices falling to actually influence the market. Wouldn't that require something of a 'buyers strike'?Or is there a disconnect between what most people want (price falls) and those involved in the buying and selling. In the same way that I'd love Ferrari values to halve, as might "most people" but no-one interested in selling one feels the same.
I know quite a few people who would like prices to fall, either because it would benefit them personally or because they think it is the 'right' thing but it is a tiny proportion of the market.
Surely it is the sellers and ultimately the Government who are the only ones who really have the power to bring prices down? Whilst sellers might subscribe to the view that prices should be lower, they'd be unlikely to reduce their own asking price unless they are getting a similar percentage reduction on their next purchase or they are being forced to sell by other circumstances.
DeltaTango said:
I'm a West London (Brook Green to be precise) EA.
The market is awfully quiet here and has been for some time. Most freehold houses have been on the market of several months, with some remaining unsold for over a year. Some houses have sold for new record prices this year, others are struggling to achieve even 80% of what they would have sold for in late 2014 / early 2015.
This is for houses at £1.5m + , with most in the £1.75-£2.5m range.
Below this price point you are looking at flats. The market is also very quiet at this level. Viewing numbers are well under half of what they would normally be. Online enquires (via rightmove etc) are also down by several orders of magnitude. Transaction volumes are 50% of what they used to be, at best.
The 'first time buyer' properties (£375-£700k here - yes I know, that's ridiculous) are also not walking out the door. Sale prices for these are around 5% shy of peak prices currently. However, sales exchanging now went under offer between January and March, when the market was much busier and there was still some confidence. This has been the longest period in my 10 years in the business that I haven't received an offer on a property (over 4 weeks now, - one would usually expect to generate 3 offers per week on average).
It's hard to say where it goes from here, but it is interesting reading the views of others in less central areas.
That'svery interesting, thanks for sharing. The market is awfully quiet here and has been for some time. Most freehold houses have been on the market of several months, with some remaining unsold for over a year. Some houses have sold for new record prices this year, others are struggling to achieve even 80% of what they would have sold for in late 2014 / early 2015.
This is for houses at £1.5m + , with most in the £1.75-£2.5m range.
Below this price point you are looking at flats. The market is also very quiet at this level. Viewing numbers are well under half of what they would normally be. Online enquires (via rightmove etc) are also down by several orders of magnitude. Transaction volumes are 50% of what they used to be, at best.
The 'first time buyer' properties (£375-£700k here - yes I know, that's ridiculous) are also not walking out the door. Sale prices for these are around 5% shy of peak prices currently. However, sales exchanging now went under offer between January and March, when the market was much busier and there was still some confidence. This has been the longest period in my 10 years in the business that I haven't received an offer on a property (over 4 weeks now, - one would usually expect to generate 3 offers per week on average).
It's hard to say where it goes from here, but it is interesting reading the views of others in less central areas.
It sorts of supports the view that the London market is well off the boil.
kingston12 said:
It would have to be a very big proportion of people that support the idea of house prices falling to actually influence the market. Wouldn't that require something of a 'buyers strike'?
I know quite a few people who would like prices to fall, either because it would benefit them personally or because they think it is the 'right' thing but it is a tiny proportion of the market.
Surely it is the sellers and ultimately the Government who are the only ones who really have the power to bring prices down? Whilst sellers might subscribe to the view that prices should be lower, they'd be unlikely to reduce their own asking price unless they are getting a similar percentage reduction on their next purchase or they are being forced to sell by other circumstances.
I'm willing to lay money that the groups are:I know quite a few people who would like prices to fall, either because it would benefit them personally or because they think it is the 'right' thing but it is a tiny proportion of the market.
Surely it is the sellers and ultimately the Government who are the only ones who really have the power to bring prices down? Whilst sellers might subscribe to the view that prices should be lower, they'd be unlikely to reduce their own asking price unless they are getting a similar percentage reduction on their next purchase or they are being forced to sell by other circumstances.
Group A: People who want prices to fall = all the people who don't own a property (and a tiny tiny proportion of those who do)
Group B: People who want prices to rise = all the people who own a property (including most of the people who own and SAY they want prices to fall, but actually don't. You know, the champagne socialists)
In all likelihood the people who would vote with their wallets is pretty small, so the merry go round keeps running.
I suspect the most likely 'solution' to the problem will be 100 year mortgages like they have in Switzerland. Value will never be adjusted, only the number and ease of ways to sell yourself and your grandkids into economic slavery.
Angrybiker said:
I'm willing to lay money that the groups are:
Group A: People who want prices to fall = all the people who don't own a property (and a tiny tiny proportion of those who do)
Group B: People who want prices to rise = all the people who own a property (including most of the people who own and SAY they want prices to fall, but actually don't. You know, the champagne socialists)
I think that there would be quite a few in group A who own a property but want prices to go down so they can move up to a better one, certainly more than a tiny proportion. That said, it has been proved in this thread that a lot of people think it is easier to move up the ladder when prices are rising, so perhaps I am wrong there!Group A: People who want prices to fall = all the people who don't own a property (and a tiny tiny proportion of those who do)
Group B: People who want prices to rise = all the people who own a property (including most of the people who own and SAY they want prices to fall, but actually don't. You know, the champagne socialists)
Angrybiker said:
In all likelihood the people who would vote with their wallets is pretty small, so the merry go round keeps running.
I suspect the most likely 'solution' to the problem will be 100 year mortgages like they have in Switzerland. Value will never be adjusted, only the number and ease of ways to sell yourself and your grandkids into economic slavery.
The proportion of people who vote with their wallets is far too small to make a difference. It will grow unless the Government keep introducing more props simply by virtue of more people being priced out, but still too small.I suspect the most likely 'solution' to the problem will be 100 year mortgages like they have in Switzerland. Value will never be adjusted, only the number and ease of ways to sell yourself and your grandkids into economic slavery.
There does seem to be a bit of a stand-off in my area at the moment, with houses that were selling to sealed bids 18 or so months ago now languishing on the market at much lower asking prices. I still think that there are buyers waiting to pounce, but they are understandably waiting for the bottom of this dip first. I'd expect some to get itchy trigger fingers before too long!
p1stonhead said:
Trexthedinosaur said:
dom9 said:
Remember this one I went to see to rent back in Feb, Tonks?
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
That was on with Curchods at £795k for the last few months, so a £45k drop on asking price or 5.7% off now.
I still think it will need to be closer to £695k to shift in the market round here.
It's small, needs a bit of work (including an extension over the garage) and the garden isn't great. The owner bought the house next door (very similar but with a much bigger garden) a year or two back for ~£700k (so less than they're asking for the much smaller plot) and spent £300k on an extension, putting the total spend at ~£1M... Don't think they'd see that back in a sale now.
I want this for (a lot less) when we're old and infirm but the price hasn't changed in months: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
I own a similar house in N.Wales, cost me £135k, that is absolutely ludicrous, it is tiny 105M is smaller than my flat in the city centre, I hope the prices come crashing down, it is another blocker to social mobility; I was offered two roles within our business in Stevenage and Portsmouth, I don't expect a mansion but the same house as I have 'oop North, same house cost between 2-4 fold dependent. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
That was on with Curchods at £795k for the last few months, so a £45k drop on asking price or 5.7% off now.
I still think it will need to be closer to £695k to shift in the market round here.
It's small, needs a bit of work (including an extension over the garage) and the garden isn't great. The owner bought the house next door (very similar but with a much bigger garden) a year or two back for ~£700k (so less than they're asking for the much smaller plot) and spent £300k on an extension, putting the total spend at ~£1M... Don't think they'd see that back in a sale now.
I want this for (a lot less) when we're old and infirm but the price hasn't changed in months: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
Its just supply and demand. Cobham is very popular.
As above, the link to the above houses are in Chester, one of the nicest cities I have visited, I can fully understand the comment around N.Wales (although it is the in the top 5 places to visit in the world, http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-37754756) , but Chester and both sub 1h to Liverpool / Manchester.
hyphen said:
Derek Chevalier said:
rory said:
FTSE 100 was 6300ish when the original thread started, so not that great a return. .
You must be looking at different numbers to me. Just to confirm you are looking at FTSE 100 Total Return index?If I'd taken my equity and invested it (and had to rent) I do not believe I would have achieved a better return than I have in property.
Angrybiker said:
I'm willing to lay money that the groups are:
Group A: People who want prices to fall = all the people who don't own a property (and a tiny tiny proportion of those who do)
Group B: People who want prices to rise = all the people who own a property (including most of the people who own and SAY they want prices to fall, but actually don't. You know, the champagne socialists)
What about people who don't own a home but who are set to inherit one (or the cash equivalent) upon the death of their parents. Would they want prices to fall?Group A: People who want prices to fall = all the people who don't own a property (and a tiny tiny proportion of those who do)
Group B: People who want prices to rise = all the people who own a property (including most of the people who own and SAY they want prices to fall, but actually don't. You know, the champagne socialists)
What they gain in being able to buy their own home more cheaply - they could lose on their inheritance (and more) should prices drop.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Agreed, but is it not the same as anywhere, all have their good and bad areas ... Liverpool has improved massively over the past 10 years or so, sorry, but to claim that Liverpool and Manchester are provincial is nonsense. I would argue against that, I have had opportunities in and around London, the salary is in most cases less and certainly less in real terms when you factor in the absurd cost of everything, although there is no real difference across the country in salaries for the Aero / defence / space industry, which perhaps biases my outlook on why anyone would move anywhere near that cesspit, avoided it for 28 years (bar 1 flight where I had to transit on the underground and 2 day trips), hopefully it continues that way.
As too house prices there, my father has some dealings with houses, equity release, etc and they are starting to see a slow down / drop in the asking prices, not good for those who are bankrupt and need their funds.
superkartracer said:
Moonhawk said:
What about people who don't own a home but who are set to inherit one upon the death of their parents. Would they want prices to fall?
One would hope this was the last thing on their mind.Trexthedinosaur said:
p1stonhead said:
Trexthedinosaur said:
dom9 said:
Remember this one I went to see to rent back in Feb, Tonks?
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
That was on with Curchods at £795k for the last few months, so a £45k drop on asking price or 5.7% off now.
I still think it will need to be closer to £695k to shift in the market round here.
It's small, needs a bit of work (including an extension over the garage) and the garden isn't great. The owner bought the house next door (very similar but with a much bigger garden) a year or two back for ~£700k (so less than they're asking for the much smaller plot) and spent £300k on an extension, putting the total spend at ~£1M... Don't think they'd see that back in a sale now.
I want this for (a lot less) when we're old and infirm but the price hasn't changed in months: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
I own a similar house in N.Wales, cost me £135k, that is absolutely ludicrous, it is tiny 105M is smaller than my flat in the city centre, I hope the prices come crashing down, it is another blocker to social mobility; I was offered two roles within our business in Stevenage and Portsmouth, I don't expect a mansion but the same house as I have 'oop North, same house cost between 2-4 fold dependent. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
That was on with Curchods at £795k for the last few months, so a £45k drop on asking price or 5.7% off now.
I still think it will need to be closer to £695k to shift in the market round here.
It's small, needs a bit of work (including an extension over the garage) and the garden isn't great. The owner bought the house next door (very similar but with a much bigger garden) a year or two back for ~£700k (so less than they're asking for the much smaller plot) and spent £300k on an extension, putting the total spend at ~£1M... Don't think they'd see that back in a sale now.
I want this for (a lot less) when we're old and infirm but the price hasn't changed in months: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
Its just supply and demand. Cobham is very popular.
Supply and demand is all there is to it.
scenario8 said:
If a self-selecting group now believes price falls are a "good" thing and contend most people support the phenomena there doesn't appear to be overwhelming evidence to support this in the world of actual buying and selling. For years this thread has hosted posts from regular contributors commenting on how deluded vendors are when it comes to pricing and further commenting on the feeble number of sales. Wouldn't we expect to see more reductions and realistic pricing and increased volumes if lower prices were genuinely wished for?
Or is there a disconnect between what most people want (price falls) and those involved in the buying and selling. In the same way that I'd love Ferrari values to halve, as might "most people" but no-one interested in selling one feels the same.
Prices will keep rising and more landlords will become superlandlords renting out at highrents to people who can't afford to buy anymore. These army of renter's will one day routinely include high tax band income earners.Or is there a disconnect between what most people want (price falls) and those involved in the buying and selling. In the same way that I'd love Ferrari values to halve, as might "most people" but no-one interested in selling one feels the same.
So no price falls IMO
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