How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[p1stonhead]

kingston12 said:

p1stonhead said:

It's actually quite nice and and was a bargain for we paid (£225k+£25k refurb) and what we sold for wasn't too bad value for them either. At near £400k it's too small.

Edited by p1stonhead on Thursday 3rd August 17:46

25% increase in that time does seem quite high given that the market isn't what it was.

Did you stay in the area? If so, what percentage would you estimate your new house has increased over the same period?

Yes we moved about 4 roads away.

Paid £450k in April 2015. Have spent about £20k on it. Estate agent last week said £600k. Neighbours just sold for £575k but ours has bigger garden and is much nicer inside.

Probably not going to move though its such a ballache and we actually love our house. Plus there isnt anything around that is better than what we have.

Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 4th August 07:21

[Welshbeef]

kingston12 said:

p1stonhead said:

It's actually quite nice and and was a bargain for we paid (£225k+£25k refurb) and what we sold for wasn't too bad value for them either. At near £400k it's too small.

Edited by p1stonhead on Thursday 3rd August 17:46

25% increase in that time does seem quite high given that the market isn't what it was.

Did you stay in the area? If so, what percentage would you estimate your new house has increased over the same period?

Remember they may have bought very well so part of that gain is purely great negotiation + inflation + the value add they have carried out.

[p1stonhead]

Welshbeef said:

kingston12 said:

p1stonhead said:

It's actually quite nice and and was a bargain for we paid (£225k+£25k refurb) and what we sold for wasn't too bad value for them either. At near £400k it's too small.

Edited by p1stonhead on Thursday 3rd August 17:46

25% increase in that time does seem quite high given that the market isn't what it was.

Did you stay in the area? If so, what percentage would you estimate your new house has increased over the same period?

Remember they may have bought very well so part of that gain is purely great negotiation + inflation + the value add they have carried out.

They actually did I think. One of the main things I think is that we actually agreed the sale price of £307k in September 14. It took something like 7 or 8 months to get over the line.

Those months including the end of 2014 were still pretty crazy still round our way. If we sold in April 2015 when we actually exchanged, we probably could have gotten £330k I reckon. So yeah techincally there is probably £25k in there just in the time it took from offer to exchange.

In reality its probably a 15% increase from what it was worth when we exchanged.

[mike74]

p1stonhead said:

Yes we moved about 4 roads away.

Paid £450k in April 2015. Have spent about £20k on it. Estate agent last week said £600k. Neighbours just sold for £575k but ours has bigger garden and is much nicer inside.

Probably not going to move though its such a ballache and we actually love our house. Plus there isnt anything around that is better than what we have.

Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 4th August 07:21

I'm not aware of any parts of the UK where property prices have increased by almost 30% in the last 2 years? Where are you?

[p1stonhead]

mike74 said:

p1stonhead said:

Yes we moved about 4 roads away.

Paid £450k in April 2015. Have spent about £20k on it. Estate agent last week said £600k. Neighbours just sold for £575k but ours has bigger garden and is much nicer inside.

Probably not going to move though its such a ballache and we actually love our house. Plus there isnt anything around that is better than what we have.

Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 4th August 07:21

I'm not aware of any parts of the UK where property prices have increased by almost 30% in the last 2 years? Where are you?

Reigate.

I didnt say the area has increased 30% based on one example though. All im saying is that the EA said our single house probably has based on the neighbours sale.....

If no one wanted ours at £600k then its not worth that simple but we havent tested it out and arent going to.

[kingston12]

p1stonhead said:

Yes we moved about 4 roads away.

Paid £450k in April 2015. Have spent about £20k on it. Estate agent last week said £600k. Neighbours just sold for £575k but ours has bigger garden and is much nicer inside.

Probably not going to move though its such a ballache and we actually love our house. Plus there isnt anything around that is better than what we have.

Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 4th August 07:21

So £470k to £600k is a similar sort of percentage increase as £307k to £385k on your previous house.

As you say, whether there has been a 25% increase or whether that is just what the EAs are telling sellers remains to be seen, but the sale at £575k is a good indicator.

It is interesting, because I'm not that far away and actual selling prices here seem virtually flat against 2015.

Edited by kingston12 on Friday 4th August 09:06

Edited by kingston12 on Friday 4th August 12:34

[menousername]

p1stonhead said:

They actually did I think. One of the main things I think is that we actually agreed the sale price of £307k in September 14. It took something like 7 or 8 months to get over the line.

Those months including the end of 2014 were still pretty crazy still round our way. If we sold in April 2015 when we actually exchanged, we probably could have gotten £330k I reckon. So yeah techincally there is probably £25k in there just in the time it took from offer to exchange.

In reality its probably a 15% increase from what it was worth when we exchanged.

Looks like the new owner is looking to gain a pretty similar gain over a pretty similar timeframe that you got

[p1stonhead]

menousername said:

p1stonhead said:

They actually did I think. One of the main things I think is that we actually agreed the sale price of £307k in September 14. It took something like 7 or 8 months to get over the line.

Those months including the end of 2014 were still pretty crazy still round our way. If we sold in April 2015 when we actually exchanged, we probably could have gotten £330k I reckon. So yeah techincally there is probably £25k in there just in the time it took from offer to exchange.

In reality its probably a 15% increase from what it was worth when we exchanged.

Looks like the new owner is looking to gain a pretty similar gain over a pretty similar timeframe that you got

Yep looks like it but it gets to a point where the house can't justify the value any more and I think £350k was the upper limit for 750sqft in that area especially considering it's ex council in a not very nice road and surrounded by a council estate (albeit a fairly ok one).

[kingston12]

p1stonhead said:

menousername said:

p1stonhead said:

They actually did I think. One of the main things I think is that we actually agreed the sale price of £307k in September 14. It took something like 7 or 8 months to get over the line.

Those months including the end of 2014 were still pretty crazy still round our way. If we sold in April 2015 when we actually exchanged, we probably could have gotten £330k I reckon. So yeah techincally there is probably £25k in there just in the time it took from offer to exchange.

In reality its probably a 15% increase from what it was worth when we exchanged.

Looks like the new owner is looking to gain a pretty similar gain over a pretty similar timeframe that you got

Yep looks like it but it gets to a point where the house can't justify the value any more and I think £350k was the upper limit for 750sqft in that area especially considering it's ex council in a not very nice road and surrounded by a council estate (albeit a fairly ok one).

Does it work like that though? Clicking into the sold prices on that ad shows that a similar house sold for £62k in 1996.

I wonder what the seller of that house would have thought the upper limit would have been 20 years later? I'd expect they'd be a bit surprised at £300k+, especially with such poor wage growth in that period.

So the nominal value of houses there has gone up by around six times in 20 years mainly due to the availability and low cost of credit. I doubt we could ever see growth like that again, but if we do there might be a discussion on PH in 2035 as to whether that house can really ever be worth more than £2m!

[youngsyr]

Pork said:

rover 623gsi said:

Shortage of homes keeping prices high, says Nationwide

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40788010

They couldn't be more wrong.

National Association of Estate Agents say agents have an average of 40 homes for sale but only sold 10 in June. That points to a shortage of sensibly priced homes to me.

Prices are being supported by low interest rates, available financing and Help2Buy.

Difficult to argue that shortage of supply isn't having an effect with this quote from RICS:

BBC Article said:

Earlier this month, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said estate agents had fewer properties on their books than at any time over the last 40 years.

[Sheepshanks]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Would you include Maidenhead in that? Colleague sold a semi there a couple of years ago for £500K and nearly got killed in the rush - he was miffed not to have asked more but needed a quick sale and it's a tricky price barrier. He was saying the other day that he reckons it wouldn't make even the £500K now.

[SilverSixer]

Sheepshanks said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Would you include Maidenhead in that? Colleague sold a semi there a couple of years ago for £500K and nearly got killed in the rush - he was miffed not to have asked more but needed a quick sale and it's a tricky price barrier. He was saying the other day that he reckons it wouldn't make even the £500K now.

I'm surprised at your Maidenhead tale.

In Reading, in my street, all the houses are broadly similar, 4 bed detached, some with better gardens, some been extended etc, but broadly similar - i.e all built exactly the same time, all have the same square footage but have differing layouts. Walking distance to Reading railway station. Prices on all the sales since 2009 to Feb 2017, in sequential order: 500k, 520k (best house and garden on the street), 480k (crap garden), 499k, 512k, 485k (wreck with crap garden), 592k, 610k, 607k, 675k, 775k, 710k. The last one has surprised me a bit, Feb this year, 6 months after the 775k peak......at September last year I'd've said the best on the street could ask £900k, I'm not so sure now, it's probably more like £800k. I think we've passed peak Crossrail.

[p1stonhead]

SilverSixer said:

Sheepshanks said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Would you include Maidenhead in that? Colleague sold a semi there a couple of years ago for £500K and nearly got killed in the rush - he was miffed not to have asked more but needed a quick sale and it's a tricky price barrier. He was saying the other day that he reckons it wouldn't make even the £500K now.

I'm surprised at your Maidenhead tale.

In Reading, in my street, all the houses are broadly similar, 4 bed detached, some with better gardens, some been extended etc, but broadly similar - i.e all built exactly the same time, all have the same square footage but have differing layouts. Walking distance to Reading railway station. Prices on all the sales since 2009 to Feb 2017, in sequential order: 500k, 520k (best house and garden on the street), 480k (crap garden), 499k, 512k, 485k (wreck with crap garden), 592k, 610k, 607k, 675k, 775k, 710k. The last one has surprised me a bit, Feb this year, 6 months after the 775k peak......at September last year I'd've said the best on the street could ask £900k, I'm not so sure now, it's probably more like £800k. I think we've passed peak Crossrail.

£800-900k?

I definitely haven't been to your part of Reading

[p1stonhead]

youngsyr said:

Pork said:

rover 623gsi said:

Shortage of homes keeping prices high, says Nationwide

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40788010

They couldn't be more wrong.

National Association of Estate Agents say agents have an average of 40 homes for sale but only sold 10 in June. That points to a shortage of sensibly priced homes to me.

Prices are being supported by low interest rates, available financing and Help2Buy.

Difficult to argue that shortage of supply isn't having an effect with this quote from RICS:

BBC Article said:

Earlier this month, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said estate agents had fewer properties on their books than at any time over the last 40 years.

Hmm who to believe, the RICS or estate agents?

[okgo]

I think there are a lot of homes for sale. But not a lot of people living on planet earth when it comes to the price they're worth.

[Sheepshanks]

SilverSixer said:

I think we've passed peak Crossrail.

That was his point really - expectation was fully priced in when he sold but now it's passed.

I don't want to post his old address up but I just looked and his was the last house to sell in the road and the property is very mixed anyway so hard to pick up a trend. He could be wrong of course!

[Terminator X]

So still not fallen 5 years after thread started. Not to worry they will do eventually and then the gloating can begin, oh apart from the people who have been renting for all that time waiting for a price drop!

TX.

[kingston12]

okgo said:

I think there are a lot of homes for sale. But not a lot of people living on planet earth when it comes to the price they're worth.

I guess it must vary by area, but certainly true around our way.

You might remember discussing the very specific area I look at on other threads. There must be about 20 properties on those roads that have been on the market for longer than three months. Before 2016, I can hardly remember a single one being on that long.

[okgo]

kingston12 said:

I guess it must vary by area, but certainly true around our way.

You might remember discussing the very specific area I look at on other threads. There must be about 20 properties on those roads that have been on the market for longer than three months. Before 2016, I can hardly remember a single one being on that long.

Yeh, though it looked like they were all sold when I last looked...?

[SilverSixer]

p1stonhead said:

SilverSixer said:

Sheepshanks said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Would you include Maidenhead in that? Colleague sold a semi there a couple of years ago for £500K and nearly got killed in the rush - he was miffed not to have asked more but needed a quick sale and it's a tricky price barrier. He was saying the other day that he reckons it wouldn't make even the £500K now.

I'm surprised at your Maidenhead tale.

In Reading, in my street, all the houses are broadly similar, 4 bed detached, some with better gardens, some been extended etc, but broadly similar - i.e all built exactly the same time, all have the same square footage but have differing layouts. Walking distance to Reading railway station. Prices on all the sales since 2009 to Feb 2017, in sequential order: 500k, 520k (best house and garden on the street), 480k (crap garden), 499k, 512k, 485k (wreck with crap garden), 592k, 610k, 607k, 675k, 775k, 710k. The last one has surprised me a bit, Feb this year, 6 months after the 775k peak......at September last year I'd've said the best on the street could ask £900k, I'm not so sure now, it's probably more like £800k. I think we've passed peak Crossrail.

£800-900k?

I definitely haven't been to your part of Reading

There's Reading, and there's Reading. Some pretty unremarkable stuff goes for around a million plus these days, my micro-neighbourhood has properties worth up to £5m or so. It's a prime commuter town in the Thames Valley, Crossrail has made it more attractive yet. It's changed a lot in the last 20 years. Even ex-council houses in Whitley seem enormously expensive to me these days.