How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
matrignano said:
First home!
I know in the long term it won't make a massive difference, but I'd be royally pissed off if I bought now and prices declined another 5-10% before picking up again!
You would be royally pissed if you bought later and prices had gone up another 5-10% too...I know in the long term it won't make a massive difference, but I'd be royally pissed off if I bought now and prices declined another 5-10% before picking up again!
A slow market means you can afford to be fussy, but if you find the perfect property I would say just buy it. Life is too short to be looking at Rightmove twice a day, not to mention dealing with agents and viewings. The feeling of completing is worth 10% alone
Also you can just bid 10% under today
matrignano said:
First home!
I know in the long term it won't make a massive difference, but I'd be royally pissed off if I bought now and prices declined another 5-10% before picking up again!
The problem is that it is virtually impossible to buy at the bottom of the market. House prices have always been difficult to predict, even more so now with the greater than ever influence of interest rates, Help to Buy, stamp duty and other props that the Government can use to sway them.I know in the long term it won't make a massive difference, but I'd be royally pissed off if I bought now and prices declined another 5-10% before picking up again!
It might seem a pretty good bet that prices will continue to flatline or go down if the Government don't offer any more encouragement, but I'm not sure I'd ever want to actually bet against house prices. If prices go up 5-10% rather than down, it won't be too many years before you are priced in to something much smaller than you are currently looking at or priced out of your area altogether.
matrignano said:
Was out viewing 1 and (small) 2 bed flats in SW5/10 on Saturday. Price range £8-900k.
One of the agents called the bottom of the market, reckoned I should buy now as prices will start going up again.
Another agent mentioned that LonRes stats for the area show a vast increase in number of transactions (+28.6%), and relatively small decline in achieved prices (-1.1%). Average prices still 23% higher than 5 years ago.
So, what is it?
Should I buy now (would be stretched), or wait it out for about a year?
The EA must be right, after all they all been saying for months how people should hold off and not buy just yet.One of the agents called the bottom of the market, reckoned I should buy now as prices will start going up again.
Another agent mentioned that LonRes stats for the area show a vast increase in number of transactions (+28.6%), and relatively small decline in achieved prices (-1.1%). Average prices still 23% higher than 5 years ago.
So, what is it?
Should I buy now (would be stretched), or wait it out for about a year?
Really good of him/her to let you know now is the time to buy. What a guy.
matrignano said:
Think I will hold out.
With Brexit uncertainty still fervent (let's see what May comes out with on Thursday), and Carney pretty much guaranteeing an imminent rate rise, I don't see prices picking up again in the short term.
Fingers crossed!
Nothing is ever certain. I read an article in City AM this morning that HSBC are expecting two base rate rises to 0.75%, but they still seem to be offering 10 year fixed rate mortgages as low as 2.5% so clearly aren't expecting many further rises after that.With Brexit uncertainty still fervent (let's see what May comes out with on Thursday), and Carney pretty much guaranteeing an imminent rate rise, I don't see prices picking up again in the short term.
Fingers crossed!
Even a relatively minor hike like that might have an effect on the market.
matrignano said:
Think I will hold out.
With Brexit uncertainty still fervent (let's see what May comes out with on Thursday), and Carney pretty much guaranteeing an imminent rate rise, I don't see prices picking up again in the short term.
Fingers crossed!
I live in the area you are looking. With Brexit uncertainty still fervent (let's see what May comes out with on Thursday), and Carney pretty much guaranteeing an imminent rate rise, I don't see prices picking up again in the short term.
Fingers crossed!
To my mind the prices being asked are unrealistic. There simply aren't enough people able or willing to pay £1 million for a 700 sq.ft flat.
But I don't think you will see huge price reductions. Why? even at -20% the numbers don't work for the few buyers out there so places just sit.
There will be desperate sellers though, you just need to find one.
Pork said:
matrignano said:
Was out viewing 1 and (small) 2 bed flats in SW5/10 on Saturday. Price range £8-900k.
One of the agents called the bottom of the market, reckoned I should buy now as prices will start going up again.
Another agent mentioned that LonRes stats for the area show a vast increase in number of transactions (+28.6%), and relatively small decline in achieved prices (-1.1%). Average prices still 23% higher than 5 years ago.
So, what is it?
Should I buy now (would be stretched), or wait it out for about a year?
The EA must be right, after all they all been saying for months how people should hold off and not buy just yet.One of the agents called the bottom of the market, reckoned I should buy now as prices will start going up again.
Another agent mentioned that LonRes stats for the area show a vast increase in number of transactions (+28.6%), and relatively small decline in achieved prices (-1.1%). Average prices still 23% higher than 5 years ago.
So, what is it?
Should I buy now (would be stretched), or wait it out for about a year?
Really good of him/her to let you know now is the time to buy. What a guy.
If you like the place and are happy with the price go for it. Try for a deal if you feel you can. Note it doesn't sound that you have found he forever home in the search though so possibly worth waiting until it comes up.
matrignano said:
At £900k all I can afford in the area are 700sqft 1/2 bed flats, so definitely not a forever home!
But I need to start somewhere and I don't want to compromise on the location, so my choices are limited...
It is the Stamp Duty that I struggle with if you aren't buying a long term home.But I need to start somewhere and I don't want to compromise on the location, so my choices are limited...
You'll pay £35k Stamp Duty on a £900k flat so that is about £1,000 a month if you move on after three years. That would pay the rent on a small flat a bit further out in London!
Of course, if the feeding frenzy resumes you'd sell the flat for £1.3m after three years anyway, meaning the £35k just enables a very good investment indeed.
kingston12 said:
It is the Stamp Duty that I struggle with if you aren't buying a long term home.
You'll pay £35k Stamp Duty on a £900k flat so that is about £1,000 a month if you move on after three years. That would pay the rent on a small flat a bit further out in London!
Of course, if the feeding frenzy resumes you'd sell the flat for £1.3m after three years anyway, meaning the £35k just enables a very good investment indeed.
A historic feeding frenzy rather, a number of areas in London have been largely negative MoM for a reasonable while now, with the latest figures being even more pessimistic, albiet this frankly massive month drop is based on asking prices and is only being seen at this level in London rather than nationwide. However Land Registry/Nationwide e.t.c all show that 'growth' is eroding quickly.You'll pay £35k Stamp Duty on a £900k flat so that is about £1,000 a month if you move on after three years. That would pay the rent on a small flat a bit further out in London!
Of course, if the feeding frenzy resumes you'd sell the flat for £1.3m after three years anyway, meaning the £35k just enables a very good investment indeed.
-14.3% in Kensington and Chelsea in one month according to rightmove (again take with the asking price/volume balancer), but even Zoopla is catching on to price drops outside of London e.g representing 16k drop in one year on a £600k redhill property I spotted online.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-housepri...
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/sep/18/aski...
No wonder more people are switching to renting and sales/mortgage volumes are falling, people were willing to pay high prices/stretch themselves when they can't see an end to prices rising but as soon as reality kicks in, they hold off. Especially at London pricing, you can lose your shirt rather quickly, and any reference to 'it's a home, not an investment' whilst true and admirable is not something people care about when they are £50-200k plus in negative equity with an environment of increasing interest rates to contend with on a frankly massive debt burden and having no doubt chucked in most of their rainy day fund.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 19th September 22:07
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